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Think you know what your house is worth? Think again

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British banks are very exposed to the housing market and any attempt to adjust house prices downwards would have serious consequences for the banking sector.

 

Thats why there is no HPC. But I  do  not think they will be able to keep it forever. And every day they postpone it, the crash will get worse 

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Wow, another astonishing find.   I said ages ago on another thread that finding this forum was like reading the news 18 months before it actually happened.  This week that has never been more true.  This place has kept me sane since I joined (I'm here pretty much every day) and suddenly the MSM is reading just like the pages of this forum.

It's so odd, but strangely re-assuring that all the gloss is coming off and people are just saying what's there.  I wonder why it's suddenly started happening.  There's got to be something about to blow up.

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It tells us nothing we don't already know. However it might tell the ignorant something that scares them... into doing whatever they possibly can to keep prices high and rising 

;)

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But the take-home I get from that is it's too big to fail, so the pound will just further be devalued or will come crashing down with houses. Won't help us with savings and no debt. 

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8 minutes ago, Bsmf said:

But the take-home I get from that is it's too big to fail, so the pound will just further be devalued or will come crashing down with houses. Won't help us with savings and no debt. 

Wages are paid in pounds. Houses are priced in pounds. Nominal wage growth is nonexistent. If this all continues to be true then the correction in house prices will be a nominal fall priced in pounds.

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32 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Wages are paid in pounds. Houses are priced in pounds. Nominal wage growth is nonexistent. If this all continues to be true then the correction in house prices will be a nominal fall priced in pounds.

Well quite alot of London houses are marketed and priced in foreign currencys.

It just feels like it will never end, it's over 13 years I've been waiting.

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12 hours ago, Dražen Petrović said:

British banks are very exposed to the housing market and any attempt to adjust house prices downwards would have serious consequences for the banking sector.

 

Thats why there is no HPC. But I  do  not think they will be able to keep it forever. And every day they postpone it, the crash will get worse 

Ponzi scheme

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8 hours ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

Do not credit the BoE or TPTB with too much knowledge, or power.  They know very little and cannot control where house prices go.

Erm they have done a pretty good job up to now. The wheels were about to fall off completely post 2008 and the props they created led directly to another boom on top of a boom.

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10 hours ago, Bsmf said:

Well quite alot of London houses are marketed and priced in foreign currencys.

It just feels like it will never end, it's over 13 years I've been waiting.

I waited 7 years before buying. Good luck.

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One thing that was mentioned a few times in the comments is introducing a LVT.

It seems the idea is making its way. I would not be surprised if EA will become a supporter of it. A way to increase the number of transactions they are still dependant on.

 

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27 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

No - they have only "can kicked", and shot their wad doing so.  They have not solved the actual issue at all - only made it worse.

So I am wrong that they have controlled where they want prices to go? 

I think you are just trying to confirm your own beliefs as I am 100% correct in my statement.

I am long term bearish on property but many tops have been called and been completely wrong exactly because of government intervention.

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The more I read the more I realise this isn't just a UK problem, but almost global.  Australia large parts of North America (at least the cities where there are jobs), lots of Europe... And China surely is a whole other ball game.  Yes the government's of late in the UK have certainly helped keep prices float away but this isn't unique to the UK.

Which comes to the point that it may not be up to any government whether prices will crash or not.  They aren't god's certainly.

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1 hour ago, doomed said:

So I am wrong that they have controlled where they want prices to go? 

IMHO ‘paddles’ have made the patient spasm, but will still bleed out, as little structural changes have been made.  The BoE keep whinging about debt - it is the cost of faffing with the paddles.  I agree the bubble continues to be inflated - but Structurally it is broken and TPTB have not a Scooby.

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23 hours ago, TonyJ said:

Yes, but can they keep the insanity going for many years or decades to come? Perhaps the PTB and the bankers are trying to plan it that they will be dead, or at least retired, by the time reality bites.

I think that's right...provided they enjoy a comfortable retirement they don't give a sh!t what happens after they are gone...same applies in respect to many aspects of policy.  On the evidence I think this is undeniable.

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What I have been saying for years...I only expect a meaningful crash when we have forced sellers in substantial numbers...bad luck for them but necessary...

(I tried to cut and paste the relevant extract but it wouldn't let me..?)

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21 hours ago, stop_the_craziness said:

Wow, another astonishing find.   I said ages ago on another thread that finding this forum was like reading the news 18 months before it actually happened.

 

That is nothing. This website is way more powerful than that. I discovered the site in 2008 and, I tell you, for me it has been like reading the news 10-15 years before it actually happened!

:D

Edited by AdamoMucci

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5 hours ago, Wayward said:

(I tried to cut and paste the relevant extract but it wouldn't let me..?)

Paste it somewhere outside your browser first such as notepad etc.. Then recopy to clipboard from there.

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7 minutes ago, AdamoMucci said:

Paste it somewhere outside your browser first such as notepad etc.. Then recopy to clipboard from there.

Many thanks..will try next time

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7 hours ago, doomed said:

So I am wrong that they have controlled where they want prices to go? 

I think you are just trying to confirm your own beliefs as I am 100% correct in my statement.

I am long term bearish on property but many tops have been called and been completely wrong exactly because of government intervention.

£3.2 billion stamp duty cut 
£20 billion help to buy
£170 billion term funding scheme (keeping mortgage rates low by pumping billions into banks artificially reducing borrowing cost)
10 years of near “0%” interest rates.
Banning the councils from building? 

£193.2 billion pumping house prices, whilst cutting police budgets £750 million because we can’t afford it! And privatising the NHS to companies that are registered in offshore tax havens.

It’s all they care about is maintaining high house prices whilst cutting services.. 

They majority of the front bench are landlords.. Tories are funded by house builders and financial institutions. too much vested interest and greed.. 

Housing benefit £25 billion.. according to the ONS will rise to £69 billion by 2030 as generation rent retire and immigration continues unhindered.. 

What happens then? Where do they find £69 billion to pay the rent of all those people they have denied a home?

not sure where the end of the snake is.. 

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OK I have finally read the article. Was not quite so impressed. Seemed a bit fluffy and lacking in support.

I mean it could be correct that prices are not dependable. I would not be shocked. But the author utterly failed to make the case. Almost pure assertion and speculation on human behaviour and other things. MSM superficial treatment of the subject. Actually I felt like I was reading one of my old economics essays from school.

"If the government does this, then this will make this happen, and because of that, people will do this. Which will cause so-and-so to happen, which will cause people to do that other thing...."

Yeah, except it turns out that economics theories/models are laughable and the field of economics is about where the field of medicine was in the 15th century.

Most interesting part was: "According to Hometrack’s Richard Donnell, areas with the biggest increases in buy-to-let rental properties in recent years have also seen the biggest drop-off in transaction volumes."

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On 31/01/2018 at 10:58 PM, Dorkins said:

Wages are paid in pounds. Houses are priced in pounds. Nominal wage growth is nonexistent. If this all continues to be true then the correction in house prices will be a nominal fall priced in pounds.

OR someone other than wage earners will end up owning a much higher proportion of the houses. [Last 2 decades that has been amateur BTL; Next 2 decades ...... ]

OR ....

Just to be clear this is not what **I want** or I vote for. But ... whilst I agree with the constant depiction of forum users here as wise for rejecting the indoctrination from the powers that be, the constant conclusion that HPC is inevitable [within human lifetimes, if it takes 40 years who here is helped?] is less wise. I would love it to happen [I want to buy a bigger place too] but I don't think assuming it will happen without some organised action to change things is slowly being exposed as delusional.

Back to the I vote for bit [I voted monster last time, only logical choice].

 

 

 

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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