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rantnrave

EA Overvaluing Comes 'Home' To Roost

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Alarm bells sound as residential sales collapse to 850,000

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/residential-sales-suffer-double-digit-drop-in-2017-land-registry/

Residential transactions in England and Wales fell by nearly 15% last year, new Land Registry figures suggest.

The latest Price Paid Data from the Land Registry, which details property submitted for registration in December, suggests there were 70,943 residential sales registered in the last month of the year.

This is down from 99,385 in November and takes the total registrations for 2017 for residential property to 850,281.

That total was 14.6% down on 2016 when there were 996,650 residential transactions.

The Land Registry’s numbers will be reviewed as it typically takes between two weeks and two months to register a sale.

If correct, it would confirm market sentiment that the transactions slowed last year but suggests they may not have dropped by as much as the 20% that Emoov predicted last week. The online agent said it would release its updated analysis later this week.

Figures also reveal that the Land Registry was working up to Christmas Eve on registering properties, with the last one registered on December 24, 2017.

The most expensive residential sale during December was of a terrace property in the City of Westminster for £10m, while the cheapest residential sale was of a terrace property in Llanelli for £15,000.

The number of transactions in 2017 is far fewer than the 1.2m annual sales regularly reported in recent years and well below the 2m transactions a year that were a feature of the housing market in the 1980s.

They are more closely in line with the figures registered during the slump of 2013, when Land Registry records so there were 805,951 transactions.

Transactions fell considerably lower in the crash of 2008, when there were 650,513 transactions.

The figures come on the back of disappointing levels of mortgage approvals for house purchases throughout the past year.

Figures released by the Bank of England earlier this month showed the extent to which house purchases have slowed as home owners opt to stay put and remortgage instead.

There were 65,139 house purchase mortgage approvals in November, up slightly from 64,887 in October and reversing a trend of monthly falls since September.

But the figure was below the previous six-month average of 66,562.

However, interest in property remains strong, according to Zoopla this morning. Ahead of its AGM today, ZPG said that between October and the end of the year, it averaged 53m visits per month.

 

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29 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Alarm bells sound as residential sales collapse to 850,000

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/residential-sales-suffer-double-digit-drop-in-2017-land-registry/

Residential transactions in England and Wales fell by nearly 15% last year, new Land Registry figures suggest.

The latest Price Paid Data from the Land Registry, which details property submitted for registration in December, suggests there were 70,943 residential sales registered in the last month of the year.

This is down from 99,385 in November and takes the total registrations for 2017 for residential property to 850,281.

That total was 14.6% down on 2016 when there were 996,650 residential transactions.

The Land Registry’s numbers will be reviewed as it typically takes between two weeks and two months to register a sale.

If correct, it would confirm market sentiment that the transactions slowed last year but suggests they may not have dropped by as much as the 20% that Emoov predicted last week. The online agent said it would release its updated analysis later this week.

Figures also reveal that the Land Registry was working up to Christmas Eve on registering properties, with the last one registered on December 24, 2017.

The most expensive residential sale during December was of a terrace property in the City of Westminster for £10m, while the cheapest residential sale was of a terrace property in Llanelli for £15,000.

The number of transactions in 2017 is far fewer than the 1.2m annual sales regularly reported in recent years and well below the 2m transactions a year that were a feature of the housing market in the 1980s.

They are more closely in line with the figures registered during the slump of 2013, when Land Registry records so there were 805,951 transactions.

Transactions fell considerably lower in the crash of 2008, when there were 650,513 transactions.

The figures come on the back of disappointing levels of mortgage approvals for house purchases throughout the past year.

Figures released by the Bank of England earlier this month showed the extent to which house purchases have slowed as home owners opt to stay put and remortgage instead.

There were 65,139 house purchase mortgage approvals in November, up slightly from 64,887 in October and reversing a trend of monthly falls since September.

But the figure was below the previous six-month average of 66,562.

However, interest in property remains strong, according to Zoopla this morning. Ahead of its AGM today, ZPG said that between October and the end of the year, it averaged 53m visits per month.

 

Down, down and down it goes.

Seems like correction in valuations in on the way, will take 6-8 months for most people to recognize this.

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23 minutes ago, warrior88 said:

Down, down and down it goes.

Seems like correction in valuations in on the way, will take 6-8 months for most people to recognize this.

yeah i would not call the end of 2018 the perfect storm for a HPC, but i would call its a bloody good rain shower.

Leveraged BTL getting crushed and going bust and lots of other factors coming into play. Does not surprise me that transactions are falling. 

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4 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

EAs overvalue properties in competition with other EAs overvaluations. If a potential buyer invites the 'obligatory' three EA valuations, EA's know the seller is probably going to give the business to the EA with best valuation.

EA's know their given price is probably not achievable, but they figure that their job is then to manage down seller's expectations without losing the listing to a competitor. The whole EA industry is a sham.

Lots of EAs going bust after failing to sell the masses of properties they have overvalued should focus a few minds in the sector, especially with letting fees coming under pressure.

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1 minute ago, rantnrave said:

Lots of EAs going bust after failing to sell the masses of properties they have overvalued should focus a few minds in the sector, especially with letting fees coming under pressure.

Can we have an EA going bust list thread, please? :)

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6 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Lots of EAs going bust after failing to sell the masses of properties they have overvalued should focus a few minds in the sector, especially with letting fees coming under pressure.

I would have agreed with you had the letting fees ban not been abolished. 

gouging the plebs at every turn is integral to our DEBTmoney control system

 

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18 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

EAs overvalue properties in competition with other EAs overvaluations. If a potential buyer invites the 'obligatory' three EA valuations, EA's know the seller is probably going to give the business to the EA with best valuation.

EA's know their given price is probably not achievable, but they figure that their job is then to manage down seller's expectations without losing the listing to a competitor. The whole EA industry is a sham.

It sounds good til you realise how much this is going to cost the EA:

- Travel out to customer. Spend 2h talking and photoing.

- Folowed by getting the details prepared.

All these people, using petrol, drawing pay. All for the uncertain prospect of 3% of the sales price.

However, if the house does not sell i nthe 6 months contract period then you risk losing the customer.

A stupid business.

The online ones with cash up front are a far better business. Does not matter if Mrs Jones hinks its worth 500k - they pay  he fees and it sits on server.

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From what I can see, a lot of people don't actually want to sell, if they did, they'd be paying the agent to price their houses more realistically. Rather, they must simply enjoy the delusion/ego boost of knowing that they "could" ride off into the sunset with half a million quid if they wanted.

They really aren't house sellers, they're just people who happen to have some pictures of their house on a website.

Edited by Diver Dan

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5 minutes ago, Diver Dan said:

From what I can see, a lot of people don't actually want to sell, if they did, they'd be paying the agent to price their houses more realistically. Rather, they must simply enjoy the delusion/ego boost of knowing that they "could" ride off into the sunset with half a million quid if they wanted.

They really aren't house sellers, they're just people who happen to have some pictures of their house on a website.

I think it's more a strategy of "I'll bung my house on the market at a stupidly high price and if some mug wants to pay it then I'll take it" rather than any sort of ego boost. These sorts of things happen in bubble territory.

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5 minutes ago, Diver Dan said:

From what I can see, a lot of people don't actually want to sell, if they did, they'd be paying the agent to price their houses more realistically. Rather, they must simply enjoy the delusion/ego boost of knowing that they "could" ride off into the sunset with half a million quid if they wanted.

They really aren't house sellers, they're just people who happen to have some pictures of their house on a website.

Ahh, youve met my mother ....

'Spy, Ive had <name of local EA, famed for overpricing> round to value the house'

'Oh, you selling'

'No, I just want to know how much its worth ...'

A family friend has had his house up for sale. Hes not even put it in the EA. Just wans someone to turn up - somehow - and give 500k for it.

Wont have an EA range as even their inflated valuation will burts his bubble.

Been 'for sale' for 10 years. He died in Easter.

Then my mother and her friends get into this silly game of 'selling their houses between them. I sh1t you not. It goes like 'Oh Ill buy your house for xxxk. OK, Ill buy yours for xxk. Circle jerk.

Fuxxing mental, really is.

She has 3-4 nearby neighbours who've had their houses for sale for over 4 years. And no interest.

With MMR and rising IRs has totally kibboshed her plans - 4 x local income minus any recurring expenes - less than 50% fo he price she wants. Again, the area will be driven by probates. These will get more + more desperate.

 

 

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57 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

The problem is that as soon as there are any big falls, the Government will fiddle with the SDLT charges and reduce/remove them or introduce some sort of "help" for buyers to purchase at the price the seller wants rather than have massive falls because the "housing market isn't moving". They would rather continue the most exclusionary and destructive policies than admit that HPI is completely immoral and destructive. I mean the whole economy is now predicated on high house prices and presumably if house prices were to fall too much Armageddon would ensue (even Corbyn seems to want a continuation of things like Help to Buy and specialist mortgages for FTBers!).

Yes, you are right. That is what the government will try to do but there are some factors the government have limited control over.

1) People cannot afford these prices i.e. affordability ceiling particularly in SE and London

2) BoE might be forced to raise interest rates i.e. inflation/oil price rises feeding through

3) Wages and productivity are not increasing in the UK (well below inflation)

4) There is a global property bubble and investors worldwide are skeptical, add that too Brexit/political uncertainty and there will be a hit to confidence in prices i.e. perpetual HPI mentaility

Things will be interesting but larger market forces will be in play that the government cant control.

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10 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

I think it's more a strategy of "I'll bung my house on the market at a stupidly high price and if some mug wants to pay it then I'll take it" rather than any sort of ego boost. These sorts of things happen in bubble territory.

Mate of mine once advertised his house for a fortune on a full.page add in the Telegraph.  Total gamble just to see if he could find a sucker - no one responded. 

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Mounting probates and BTL forced sellers are the only real market.

think boomers won’t really get serious with downsizing until they reach the point they just don’t want the hassle anymore, so I don’t see them as having any real effect on the market. 

the buying side has reduced hugely, but there is a lot of pent up demand from the few FTB’s with large deposits (like myself) 

the selling pressure should mount gradually over this year.

maybe the next year or so will be my best window. I went from feeling like I had years to buy, to years passing, to really should get a wiggle on this century. 

I have seen houses go from 140k to 240k to 200k, not ideal. but 200k is better than 240k.

Buying a house 4 times joint income takes me to £191k 

sat at 50% deposit. i mean what’s 100k debt between friends? still far too daunting for me. 

think that 200k house will calm down to 187kish, by the years end. 

12 more months could save me 13kish off a house, plus an extra 20-30k of saving. Worth it. 

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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