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English Housing Survey out today


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The big annual ONS English Housing Survey for 2016-7 is out today:

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/comment/buying-with-a-mortgage-falls-while-rough-sleeping-increases-nationally-54185 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-housing-survey-2016-to-2017-headline-report

Private renting now over 20% of households, the highest since 1969:

Jules_EHS_1_MIN.jpg

Some stunning graphs on homeownership by age:

Jules EHS part 3

Only 52% of households headed by somebody aged 35-44 are owner occupiers! No way is that politically sustainable.

Edited by Dorkins
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Haven't digested the whole document but taking the graphs as is, it is so hard to disentangle all the various factors at play. For example, the decreasing numbers buying with a mortgage likely to reflect decreased affordability and conversely an increase in cash buyers. 

Top graph doesn't convey much if it is absolute numbers; Number of home owners increasing and more people renting could simply reflect an increasing population. Slope of the lines between owning outright and rentals is the same implying little change in the two groups and so likely reflects the population boom over the last decade. 

Will digest it all later. Thanks for link. 

 

 

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Thanks for the link. There's lots of interesting/depressing graphs in there. 

I thought the graph on page 22, on private rented dwelling age by tenure was quite illuminating. It shows that for dwellings built after 2003, a higher proportion are private rented than owner occupied, which confirms that the majority of new builds since 2003 have been snapped up by BTL landlords. It also shows the higher proportion of pre-1919 dwellings in the private rented sector, which would suggest BTLs massively buying up the older parts of cities, including the mass of old terraces in London.

Figure 1.7 on page 16 as well. It shows and the paragraph below shows the proportion of income private renters spend on housing. When excluding housing benefit private renters spent 39% of their income on housing. It would be interesting to see this broken down by region. It is such a huge drain of money to the economy to have almost 40% of private renters income to be filling the pockets of landlords.

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10 hours ago, HouseSharingIsMyLifeNow said:

It is such a huge drain of money to the economy to have almost 40% of private renters income to be filling the pockets of landlords

Dont worry, your rent is being spent by your landlord in fine restaurants and on cruises boosting the economy. Plus given a high proportion of your income goes on rent you are required to be more productive simply to survive boosting the economy further.

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18 hours ago, Wayward said:

Dont worry, your rent is being spent by your landlord in fine restaurants and on cruises boosting the economy. Plus given a high proportion of your income goes on rent you are required to be more productive simply to survive boosting the economy further.

Ha, yes, thinking about this makes me feel much better. It does feel like jogging to stand still sometimes. 

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On 1/25/2018 at 9:38 PM, Dorkins said:

The big annual ONS English Housing Survey for 2016-7 is out today:

https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/comment/buying-with-a-mortgage-falls-while-rough-sleeping-increases-nationally-54185 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-housing-survey-2016-to-2017-headline-report

Private renting now over 20% of households, the highest since 1969:

Jules_EHS_1_MIN.jpg

Some stunning graphs on homeownership by age:

Jules EHS part 3

Only 52% of households headed by somebody aged 35-44 are owner occupiers! No way is that politically sustainable.

I don't get why there is an increase in the number of own outright homeowners- surely as prices increase, anyone wanting to upsize has to take on even more mortgage debt, hence taking longer until they own outright.

You are right about the political situation, it's not just that age group but parents, aunties and uncles and grandparents who are seeing the detrimental effect of the UK housing market.

 

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5 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I don't get why there is an increase in the number of own outright homeowners- surely as prices increase, anyone wanting to upsize has to take on even more mortgage debt, hence taking longer until they own outright.

 

As renters increase the number taking a mortage decreases as you can see in the details. Those that already have a mortgage also reduce due to the fact that they pay of their mortgage or are gifted a property in an estate. There are less taking a mortgage so the graph tends towards renters and outright owners as time goes on.

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On 1/26/2018 at 7:23 PM, Wayward said:

Dont worry, your rent is being spent by your landlord in fine restaurants and on cruises boosting the economy. Plus given a high proportion of your income goes on rent you are required to be more productive simply to survive boosting the economy further.

Joking aside, I think there will be a big shock to UK output in a few years. I work for a tech SME in Kent and collaborate with another tech SME in London. Both companies are filled with young, highly talented employees developing tech that advances the current state-of-the-art (robotics in this case). All of us are paying the mortgages of landlords who are almost certainly not adding much to the productive economy. I'm not sure how long the wealth generators are willing to continue to work hard only for their salary to end up with wealth extractors using it as a bet on the housing market.

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5 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

As renters increase the number taking a mortage decreases as you can see in the details. Those that already have a mortgage also reduce due to the fact that they pay of their mortgage or are gifted a property in an estate. There are less taking a mortgage so the graph tends towards renters and outright owners as time goes on.

Makes sense- cheers! So, edging towards a Victorian future :(

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On 1/25/2018 at 9:38 PM, Dorkins said:

Jules_EHS_1_MIN.jpg

It would be more informative if that 'buying with a mortgage' line was split out into 'buying with a repayment mortgage' and 'buying with an interest-only mortgage'. It's 2018 so go back 25 years and we are probably clearing the tail end of repayment mortgages taken out in the early 1990s which is why that 'owned outright' line is climbing. Move forward to 2025 and it will be early 2000s interest-only mortgages that are reaching maturity - no way are those households shifting into the 'owned outright' category.

The trends seem to point to the early-mid 2020s being when HMS UK Property Ponzi hits the reality iceberg financially, demographically and electorally. Should be quite a show.

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I haven't had a proper read through. But another massive stat which shows how bad the situation is for young people is the housing wealth owned by age group- under 35's own 3.3% of the housing wealth with over 55s owning 63.3%.

So basically, older people outright own houses that have gone up stupidly in value. If you are young and an owner-occupier, you don't own much of it and probably have a huge mortgage- just shows how the living standards are reducing as a result of high housing costs.

https://www.buyassociation.co.uk/2017/11/29/london-houses-worth-scotland-wales-north-combined/

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9 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Joking aside, I think there will be a big shock to UK output in a few years. I work for a tech SME in Kent and collaborate with another tech SME in London. Both companies are filled with young, highly talented employees developing tech that advances the current state-of-the-art (robotics in this case). All of us are paying the mortgages of landlords who are almost certainly not adding much to the productive economy. I'm not sure how long the wealth generators are willing to continue to work hard only for their salary to end up with wealth extractors using it as a bet on the housing market.

Without wanting to derail the thread I am curious UW if you have any insights for the layperson such as myself of how robitics and AI is realistically going to start to impact out lives in the next decade or so (the remainder of my working life)? Deserves its own thread probably (if there isnt one already?)

I recognise the supermarket checkout experience and Amazons auto shelf stocking in retail but beyond this what are the top 5 changes we can expect?

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10 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I don't get why there is an increase in the number of own outright homeowners- surely as prices increase, anyone wanting to upsize has to take on even more mortgage debt, hence taking longer until they own outright.

You are right about the political situation, it's not just that age group but parents, aunties and uncles and grandparents who are seeing the detrimental effect of the UK housing market.

 

Could be more cash buyers, more older downsizers, fewer people moving upwards because their income will not support it, the costs incurred with moving....people having no or smaller families so do not require extra space...people repaying debt and are reluctant to move or remortgage to take on more, people using their money in different ways, investing in alternatives.....;)

 

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4 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Without wanting to derail the thread I am curious UW if you have any insights for the layperson such as myself of how robitics and AI is realistically going to start to impact out lives in the next decade or so (the remainder of my working life)? Deserves its own thread probably (if there isnt one already?)

I recognise the supermarket checkout experience and Amazons auto shelf stocking in retail but beyond this what are the top 5 changes we can expect?

I mainly focus on the tech development, but being an sme you also get pushed into the business side of things and the outlook for the future. I think most robotics will take place in industrial settings and harsh environments rather than be something we experience often and that will change our daily lives. The cost is too high for the consumer market and there's not too much to gain.
But taking a robot into a harsh environment such as nuclear decommissioning is sought after. Workers are only allowed on sites for a few hours and spend too long getting prepared/ preparing for exiting the site and checking radiation levels throughout a shift. Effectively, you only get 2 hours of useful work during a shift- replace this with a robot and you can go 24 hours a day without generating waste until you need to remove it from site. Manufacturing is the other big change (Google industry 4.0), but by getting robotics to pick parts and moving them to jigs to perform tasks, means you can produce a lot more and not worry about human error. The big manufacturers push the soundbite that this will free workers from menial tasks to increase output per worker.
AI is a big area and a lot of funding is going into it. As I mainly focus on hardware, I'm not the best person to ask. But in terms of robotics, it'll be key to coping with new events and creating truly autonomous systems.
Interestingly, our robot density (number of robots per 10000 employees in manufacturing is woeful compared to other countries) 

Robot_density_by_country1.jpg.e6ba3cba0559f5884ac8977960ae27f2.jpg

Edited by UnconventionalWisdom
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4 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Without wanting to derail the thread I am curious UW if you have any insights for the layperson such as myself of how robitics and AI is realistically going to start to impact out lives in the next decade or so (the remainder of my working life)? Deserves its own thread probably (if there isnt one already?)

I recognise the supermarket checkout experience and Amazons auto shelf stocking in retail but beyond this what are the top 5 changes we can expect?

Hi yes there is a thread dedicated to this subject if you search for it...hope helpful.

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2 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

There is something wrong about a bad thing that started under Labour, benefiting them politically.

Labour's under new management now. Blair refused to endorse Corbyn in the 2017 general election.

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2 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I saw Prescott "Pathfinder" endorse him.

Prescott was never New Labour inner circle. He was a useful idiot for Blair, Brown, Mandelson etc because he had a regional accent.

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  • 434 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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