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DEC 17 - 36k mortgages. 45k deaths


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I noticed that number of firms willing to lend over one million is signficantly down on what it was a few months bank. I can only find one bank that will lend that amount at 80% ltv. Even the young bankers are not gonna buy. You can borrow as loans from private banks but you pay 1% of notional for a broker to find deals in this size!

So to recap:

Prices not going up

Stamp duty huge

Gbp up so even the foreigners aren't buying. Usd much more attractive at these levels. 

Young individuals who may jump to a long term home due to significany stamp duty cant borrow enough

People on the ladder ******** cant sell their property because nothings moving and they wont cut prices due to needing huge stamp duty.

Im even coming across lots of probate sales where people are holding out for what they got their property valued for in 2014.

Sounds like a normal market.

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24 minutes ago, juice05 said:

I noticed that number of firms willing to lend over one million is signficantly down on what it was a few months bank. I can only find one bank that will lend that amount at 80% ltv. Even the young bankers are not gonna buy. You can borrow as loans from private banks but you pay 1% of notional for a broker to find deals in this size!

So to recap:

Prices not going up

Stamp duty huge

Gbp up so even the foreigners aren't buying. Usd much more attractive at these levels. 

Young individuals who may jump to a long term home due to significany stamp duty cant borrow enough

People on the ladder ******** cant sell their property because nothings moving and they wont cut prices due to needing huge stamp duty.

Im even coming across lots of probate sales where people are holding out for what they got their property valued for in 2014.

Sounds like a normal market.

Strict 4x net household - verified, 20% deposit.

Go out of those and youll find very few lenders.

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7 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/01/24/heres-how-much-longer-each-generation-will-be-sticking-around/?utm_term=.57c1bd83f1dc

looking at the charts the boomer deaths are going to accelerate quickly from now on.
All those lovely massive houses going to probate! 

Wouldn't gentrified inheritors rent out the proeprty and split the extortionate rent in Islington?

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6 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/01/24/heres-how-much-longer-each-generation-will-be-sticking-around/?utm_term=.57c1bd83f1dc

looking at the charts the boomer deaths are going to accelerate quickly from now on.
All those lovely massive houses going to probate! 

It seems to be a good ten years until boomer deaths are significant

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quote from article

 

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the latest data showed mortgage approvals "falling off a cliff".

He said: "The deterioration in consumers' confidence, driven by the squeeze on real incomes and the November interest rate hike, has taken a heavy toll on the mortgage market."

Mr Tombs suggested that the Bank of England had "seriously misjudged the ability of the housing market to withstand even modest increases in interest rates".

 

 

A tiny morsel of an interest rate rise and all hell breaks loose. it just shows how completely on the edge of affirdability we really are.aint the people and the banks not doing any stress tests at all? 

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This is carnage ... look at the stats from the report...

WDivMqm.png

My 60 sommat in-laws/parents will no doubt say that banks aren't giving out enough mortgages ... such a shame. NO. It is people not wanting to take mortgages, or not being able to afford mortgages. The demand for mortgages is falling because house prices are still too high. If demand for houses falls (and this doesnt even include BTL as far as I can tell!) ... prices will follow.

 

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23 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

My 60 sommat in-laws/parents will no doubt say that banks aren't giving out enough mortgages ... such a shame. NO. It is people not wanting to take mortgages, or not being able to afford mortgages. The demand for mortgages is falling because house prices are still too high. If demand for houses falls (and this doesnt even include BTL as far as I can tell!) ... prices will follow.

I also noticed with this report that it's no longer clear whether it's banks reducing lending due to bearish internal forecasts and regulatory pressures, or demand falling along with confidence, that's causing the retraction. That does suggest the kind of vicious circle typical of crashes.

In terms of momentum within that circle, my recollection of the Irish crash and figures from previous crashes suggest a sudden move with little data required to confirm negative sentiment once it sets in. Ireland had a month at -0.6%, then a month at -0.8%, followed by a deep, steep retrace, and this behaviour seems typical.

We'll see how the predictions of 'a few years of flat growth to let wages catch up' turn out soon.

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The original posting was comparing apples and pears. The 36K is households whereas the 45K is individuals.

There is no way of knowing what the fall in the number of households is in the 45K but it is considerably less than this figure and I would have thought less than 36K so the net availability gap is much less than apparent.

Also the 36K is seasonally adjusted and this can hide a multitude of sins.

The original point however is probably valid in terms of trend; however on the basis of these numbers you can conclude approximately - nothing.

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32 minutes ago, crouch said:

The original posting was comparing apples and pears. The 36K is households whereas the 45K is individuals.

There is no way of knowing what the fall in the number of households is in the 45K but it is considerably less than this figure and I would have thought less than 36K so the net availability gap is much less than apparent.

Also the 36K is seasonally adjusted and this can hide a multitude of sins.

The original point however is probably valid in terms of trend; however on the basis of these numbers you can conclude approximately - nothing.

True, its apples and Fiats but numbers is numbers.

There was a rough estimate that the UK needed ~80k mortgages a month to maintain prices.

Less than that adn the number of sellers overwhelm the buyers and drive prices down.

Its the 3 Ds - Death, divorce and debt.

Death alone is exceeding he number of  mortgages.

Add Debt and Divorce in there - and people have sh1t loads of debt - and youll see the sellers way outnumber the buyers.

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11 hours ago, Tapori said:

Wouldn't gentrified inheritors rent out the proeprty and split the extortionate rent in Islington?

I think that's the plan,  so long as the masses are obsessed with perceived injustices elsewhere..."the bankers, the bonuses," "the bankers, the bonuses" ...something has got to be done about it innit. Then millions of Brits can exploit the rest of the country with  Btl empires and inherited wealth...the investment of choice of the chattering social justice class. Anything else is unethical like investing in industry and jobs.

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I have a theory that the generation before the boomers achieved max life expectancy and the boomers will start to die off at a younger age on average due to way a lot of them have abused their bodies with excessive alcohol (and drugs back in the day). A lot of boomers I know think they’re healthy but drink way more than advised and don’t eat as healthily as they think they do. Just a theory and may well be proved wrong but we’ll see

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6 hours ago, When??? said:

I have a theory that the generation before the boomers achieved max life expectancy and the boomers will start to die off at a younger age on average due to way a lot of them have abused their bodies with excessive alcohol (and drugs back in the day). A lot of boomers I know think they’re healthy but drink way more than advised and don’t eat as healthily as they think they do. Just a theory and may well be proved wrong but we’ll see

You're probably correct. Especially once you factor in air pollution, chemical contamination of drinking water, levels of inactivity/obesity, poor quality housing (guess that's been an issue for 70 years though) etc.

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36 minutes ago, Craig_ said:

You're probably correct. Especially once you factor in air pollution, chemical contamination of drinking water, levels of inactivity/obesity, poor quality housing (guess that's been an issue for 70 years though) etc.

And automatic German cars - reaper mobiles.

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On 1/26/2018 at 9:50 AM, crashmonitor said:

I think that's the plan,  so long as the masses are obsessed with perceived injustices elsewhere..."the bankers, the bonuses," "the bankers, the bonuses" ...something has got to be done about it innit. Then millions of Brits can exploit the rest of the country with  Btl empires and inherited wealth...the investment of choice of the chattering social justice class. Anything else is unethical like investing in industry and jobs.

It's disgusting.:D

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  • 429 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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