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£ = €1.145/$1.42 : Any reason(s) for this?


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1 hour ago, maffo in oxford said:

bounced back a bit from previous lows

Er, a lot, and for quite some time. 

Best to look at the charts (data) not listen to the agenda driven MSM.

Here's a chart and narrative I did on the "Deflation" thread back in December:

download.png.1e863dd16428fd6d3039e69bba3c6e13.png

And the narrative:

".............If you want a laugh while you're deciding, look at the period since June 2014.  Yup, it changed direction and started going down.  But then popped up starting in Feb 2016, only to continue to fall until the start of the current rise in Nov 2016.  Now think Brexit, map the dates onto the charts and vow never to listen to the yapping again!  That pop, against the prevailing trend, was the Brexit bounce when a Remain vote was a cert.  But it wasn't so the prevailing trend re-asserted itself, after a heavy correction for the pop.  It probably would have re-asserted itself anyways given the power of the trend and the old "buy the rumour, sell the fact".......  Note the down-trend started a year before the Referendum was announced.  Now I'm a Brexit agnostic but I hate yap 'cause that's how you lose money.........".

However, we may be topping here!  The current post Nov 2016 bounce may be a counter trend rally, in which case we could expect the longer term down trend to re-assert itself at some point.  Also note MSM coverage often marks a top!

Edited by Fence
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26 minutes ago, Fence said:

However, we may be topping here!  The current post Nov 2016 bounce may be a counter trend rally, in which case we could expect the longer term down trend to re-assert itself at some point.  Also note MSM coverage often marks a top!

Here's an updated chart.  We're currently at a key point in relation to hitting the GFC Feb 2009 bottom (resistance?) and have gone a bit parabolic lately due to some short term news and maybe the draw of that resistance level:

image.thumb.png.d6cdac252799220438df7cc7f3117973.png

Presumably we either break through it with an established change of trend or we fail and resume the long term down trend.  Due a pull back?  If so, how hard and significant?  Sell the news?

Edited by Fence
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It's all relative - depends on UK & US factors. Although there are a few positive vibes re Brexit trade agreements & low UK unemployment level, most of the shift seems down to devaluation of USD. 

- Political turmoil of Trump, worse than expected jobs figures, falling bond yields all seem have the effect of weakening the USD. 

Of course a lower USD benefits Trumps protectionist policies through making exports more competitive so may be part of his grand plan. 

 

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30 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

It's because everyone now assumes Brexit will be kicked into the long grass.

Yup. The fix is in. Cameron's insincere bloaty face on the news this evening the definitive tell.

 

Edited by zugzwang
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13 hours ago, maffo in oxford said:

The pound seems to have bounced back a bit from previous lows, any thoughts on the forum as to why this may be?
 

yes, the rich/establishment/bankers have said f**k it, we're not leaving teh EU, we'll put tanks on the streets before we give in to democracy.

 

Would be my guess

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The “why” is irrelevant since it already happened.

 

apply whatever narrative you like, it’s as valid as the next mans.

 

the market has deemed that’s the value at the moment, narratives are utterly worthless unless made as part of a prediction in advance

 

All you’re doing is trying to fit words to numbers, an exercise which is of zero value in hindsight. In fact less than zero value as you’re taking up valuable time to ask the question and think up the narrative. 

 

Future predictions, now you’re talking.

 

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3 minutes ago, thewig said:

All you’re doing is trying to fit words to numbers, an exercise which is of zero value in hindsight. In fact less than zero value as you’re taking up valuable time to ask the question and think up the narrative. 

 

Future predictions, now you’re talking.

It's rather hard to predict the future (well, it's rather hard anyway) without understanding what influences the changes, i.e. the whys.

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1 minute ago, ccc said:

If anyone knew which way currencies would move with any certainty - they would be sitting on a yacht in Monte Carlo and not wasting their time on here. :D

I thought most of us on here were posting from our yachts? Not like those scumbag over on yachtpricecrash.com

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28 minutes ago, thewig said:

I thought most of us on here were posting from our yachts? Not like those scumbag over on yachtpricecrash.com

My yacht is moored up just now I am afraid. I'm just a peasant now. :(

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I get a daily email from HSBC on currencies - their take is 

The dollar fell to a three year low against a basket of major currencies after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the weaker dollar was positive for American trade

The Economist are also saying that according to their "Big Mac Index" which shows how much a Big Mac costs in different countries when converted to USD "only Britain's and Japan's currencies stand out as bargains" (this was before the recent rise). A Big Mac in the USA is $5.28, in UK on 17th Jan it was $4.41

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Just now, NuBrit said:

Currency markets make no sense to me.

I would have thought with the Fed reducing the size of their balance sheet and signalling further interest rates rises, that we would see a shortage of Dollars which would lead to it strengthening.

yep a lot of the time this sort of stuff is already priced in so by the time it happens the market does the opposite of what you think it "should" do

 

same reason asking "why" the market just did something it completely worthless

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1 minute ago, TonyJ said:

Every world currency is currently appreciating against USD,. The question in the thread seemed to assume it is a unique GBP/USD phenomenon, which it is not.

Just no here I'm afraid. This depends entirely on your trading timeframe. Otherwise there would be zero buyers of dollars if your take on forex made any sense.

 

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10 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

I'm talking over the last few weeks/months. I have a load of dollars, which I would like to sell for GBP,  and I'm disappointed it is so week! I'm waiting for a dollar bounce, if it ever comes, to get rid of them.

Exactly. Your trading timeframe.

 

You could always do as we do in crypto (and gold) and hodl to infinity

 

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  • 434 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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