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Is Outer London now Crashing ?


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18 minutes ago, Nomadd said:

..Hence these buyers "thought" it was worth near £700k.

Doesn't matter what you and I "think"... These buyers set the "expected" prices for current sellers. That's the subject of the thread.

The three couples I spoke to at Christmas - still all in their 20's - are all looking to buy. Banks are still throwing lots of cheap money at them, and they are all happy to progress with with 30-40 year mortgages.

I'd argue there is no "thinking" involved as for the vast majority the offer is based on the amount the bank will lend them and looking for the house which is "worth" (asking) that amount.

 

therefore the bank will lend me 700k and that house is worth (asking) 700k so I'll buy that house cos its the best of the other houses worth(asking) 700k

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, thewig said:

I'd argue there is no "thinking" involved as for the vast majority the offer is based on the amount the bank will lend them and looking for the house which is "worth" (asking) that amount.

 

therefore the bank will lend me 700k and that house is worth (asking) 700k so I'll buy that house cos its the best of the other houses worth(asking) 700k

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exactly, I e.g. can borrow up to 5.5 times my salary on a 35 year mortgage term, so can afford this on low interest rate (2.00% fixed for 5 years or 1.44% for 2 years) but what happens when the rate go up and house prices stagnate/fall.

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1 hour ago, happyguy said:

"Who on earth would pay £500K whilst knowing the price was £248K just four years ago...?!  Can they point to any examples in history when prices have rocketed by so much in such as short period of time and then not crashed...?  I would be interested to learn of any such examples...?"

 

on that basis who would pay £4 for a beer when it was £3.50, 2 years ago

If you want something you pay the money 

Or everyone stops buying and pubs shut up and down the  country.

 

Thankfully, that's not happened.

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2 minutes ago, warrior88 said:

Exactly, I e.g. can borrow up to 5.5 times my salary on a 35 year mortgage term, so can afford this on low interest rate (2.00% fixed for 5 years or 1.44% for 2 years) but what happens when the rate go up and house prices stagnate/fall.

Where as 15 years ago, you could buy it for cash and the money you earned for the next 33 years would be yours, not a banker's and a pensioners.

 

And still people buy....

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1 hour ago, Nomadd said:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=57190348&sale=4855897&country=england

At the "peak" of the market in 06/07, these were changing hands at ~£370k-400k

Yet last year, someone thought it was worth near £700k and bought it.

Go figure.

Someone didnt buy it for 700KI...someone bought it for 50K more....the other 500K came from someone else...who only paid 50K more...the other 400K came from someone else......#HelpToBuy.

 

its a pyramid scheme.

 

Anyone not near the top is going to be crushed by the pyramid weight.

 

how many of these people buying £1M homes can actually afford to buy £1m homes ?

 

Not many Id wager


The prices are being set in the context of a pyarmid scheme....the chances of any such scheme continuing forever is 0.

 

buy into it, loose out.  its that simple, the higher the pyramid goes more the people at the bottom will lose.

Most havent witnessed a property crash, i've seen 2 now. Both unpleaseant for different reasons, the next one will be MUCH worse than the 2 i've seen.

 

 

 

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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1 hour ago, Nomadd said:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=57190348&sale=4855897&country=england

At the "peak" of the market in 06/07, these were changing hands at ~£370k-400k

Yet last year, someone thought it was worth near £700k and bought it.

Go figure.

Actually to use this specific example, see actual price sold below.

Make of that what you will but I would expect house prices to rise although linked to inflation/wage rises.
 

n14 price.JPG

n14 price 2.JPG

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5 hours ago, happyguy said:

"Who on earth would pay £500K whilst knowing the price was £248K just four years ago...?!  Can they point to any examples in history when prices have rocketed by so much in such as short period of time and then not crashed...?  I would be interested to learn of any such examples...?"

 

on that basis who would pay £4 for a beer when it was £3.50, 2 years ago

If you want something you pay the money 

Beer and housing are not really comparible for lots of reasons. The price of beer doesn't surge and crash routinely. You are not left with your beer up to your eyes in debt and knowing you can now buy it for alot less than you paid for it.

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7 hours ago, Everythingsamess said:

I'm calling the commuter belt crashing.

Peak was last spring. This is Farnham, Surrey.

Seeing some proper drops now.

1.15 to 930.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-51642324.html

1.3 to 1.1

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-51363171.html

1.4 to 1.3

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-70944410.html

Loads of nice stuff that would normally go quickly now stuck on rm month after month.

Bring it on!!!

In my search area, around 5 mile radius  Guildford there has been a large number of good, solid properties put on the market since mid December. They are around £350k to £800k price ranges, mostly needing renovation. Some look like an elderly person went to the shop one day (about 10 years ago) and never went home again, others are empty or are partially furnished and are chain free. There have been very few of these sorts of properties on the market since around 2007/2010 and there has been upwards of 50 appearing in a short space of time. Looks like someone's off loading in the area, maybe a bank or equity release company or even the council possibly?? In any case it's highly unusual. Have you seen any sign of this around the Farnham area?

 

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7 hours ago, warrior88 said:

One of my friend bought a 3 bed house for £248K in east London (zone 3) in November 2013, now similar houses are selling for around £500K mark. Totally appreciate this is massively due to low IRs and supply of cheap credit. The way government is propping up the house prices, it seems prices will just stay stagnant for a long time unless we have an event that force people to sell.

Waiting for such a scenario to actually happen.

£248K will barely get you a flat in zone 6 now. 

£248K for a three bed house in zone 3 is the stuff of myth and legend. A tale of a bygone age. It seems barely believable. Yet is was only a handful of years ago. 

Whether London will ever see those prices again, I remain to be convinced. I fear those days have gone forever. 

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7 hours ago, Everythingsamess said:

I'm calling the commuter belt crashing.

Peak was last spring. This is Farnham, Surrey.

Seeing some proper drops now.

1.15 to 930.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-51642324.html

1.3 to 1.1

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-51363171.html

1.4 to 1.3

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-70944410.html

Loads of nice stuff that would normally go quickly now stuck on rm month after month.

Bring it on!!!

The SDLT changes will be wreaking havoc on this section of the market. 

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35 minutes ago, Tempus said:

Whether London will ever see those prices again, I remain to be convinced. I fear those days have gone forever. 

Never say never. In the late 80's they said houses would never fall they would stop going up but never fall. London fell more than anywhere else. The media tried to talk it back up for years. Then they gave up and said anyone in London who bought in 1988 would have to wait to get the same price for their house until  the end of their 25 year mortgage term, so 2013 and in real terms taking into account inflation it would still be a lose. As Property would never go up like it had in the past. We all know what has happened since. 

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Around the commuter zones in the Thames Valley I'm not seeing much more than a stagnant market, prices have peaked for sure but I still hear nothing but delusion when it comes to property and its road to riches. In my experience there is no fear in the air or hint of panic yet, a necessary ingredient for a crash. I am hopeful though we're not too far off.

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3 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

Around the commuter zones in the Thames Valley I'm not seeing much more than a stagnant market, prices have peaked for sure but I still hear nothing but delusion when it comes to property and its road to riches. In my experience there is no fear in the air or hint of panic yet, a necessary ingredient for a crash. I am hopeful though we're not too far off.

Carillion should put the sh1ts up them.

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7 hours ago, Wayward said:

Who on earth would pay £500K whilst knowing the price was £248K just four years ago...?!  Can they point to any examples in history when prices have rocketed by so much in such as short period of time and then not crashed...?  I would be interested to learn of any such examples...???

Different this time ??  that's what they always think until is isn't.  Anyone paying these prices is going to be poor for the rest of their lives.

I was looking around zone 3/4 East London a few years ago - might well have been some of the areas warriors friend was in. As an observation some places (Leytonstone, Leyton) have massively improved in this time. Places I wish I had bought then 2012/13 have doubled or more - but the area has also changed. I hope they crash soon...

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I'm seeing prices softening in e.g Beckenham (South East london)

I live further out at the moment (inside m25) and sellers (and maybe buyers) around my neck of the woods haven't caught on yet, but they will, given time.

Also seeing some "reasonable" houses come on the market in nice little villages like Downe (looks very pretty).

By reasonable, I of course mean ludicrously overpriced compared to 5 years ago, but maybe not 1 year ago.

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3 hours ago, Solitaire said:

In my search area, around 5 mile radius  Guildford there has been a large number of good, solid properties put on the market since mid December. They are around £350k to £800k price ranges, mostly needing renovation. Some look like an elderly person went to the shop one day (about 10 years ago) and never went home again, others are empty or are partially furnished and are chain free. There have been very few of these sorts of properties on the market since around 2007/2010 and there has been upwards of 50 appearing in a short space of time. Looks like someone's off loading in the area, maybe a bank or equity release company or even the council possibly?? In any case it's highly unusual. Have you seen any sign of this around the Farnham area?

 

If you really really want to know, call estate agents for viewings just ask them who the vendor is. This should sort out the question, it could theoratically be a landlord with a massive portfolio.

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1 hour ago, Maynardgravy said:

Harrow is on the edge. Nothing selling and reductions of only ~5% on most houses that hang around with no viewings. One more IR rise might just push this turkey over on sentiment alone.

I don't want to buy there, I just want to see all the BTLters burn.

Time will tell the tale but we are past the peak of property prices for now in London and South East.

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5 hours ago, Maynardgravy said:

Harrow is on the edge. Nothing selling and reductions of only ~5% on most houses that hang around with no viewings. One more IR rise might just push this turkey over on sentiment alone.

I don't want to buy there, I just want to see all the BTLters burn.

Isn't Harrow On The Hill

I'll get me coat

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