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wsn03

Crypto currencies - a proper HPC trigger? Discuss

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One for discussion.

Cyrpto currency is in my opinion in a mania right now. Whether you believe it will or will not work, it is in my opinion a mania. Personally I don’t think it will have a happy ending, but that’s not the point of this thread.

 

The reason it is in mania phase is because the current system is flawed and broken – the distribution of wealth has been split very badly based on nothing more than age, by poor monetary policy blowing up asset bubbles all around the world. Globalisation hasn’t helped, but that’s another story.

 

The disaffected have started their own revolt. No doubt about it, the biggest advocates of the crypto mania are the under 40s. The over 40s don’t seem to believe in it (for various reasons not part of this debate), and the over 50s don’t actually want it (why would they, they like holding all the wealth?).

 

For various reasons I don’t think crypto currencies will be worth anything long term, they will collapse as a tulip bubble just in my opinion (no I’m not a fan of that, and yes I have now researched them, this is just my opinion). But I do believe they will leave behind a lasting legacy. The technology they championed will be adopted, and their fundamentals of limited supply etc will be taken seriously and probably implemented.

 

This revolt will have/ is already having the effect of undermining the current status quo.

 

The FT did a very interesting article on the reasons why the ‘millenials’ are pilling into cryptos, along the lines of what choice do they have?

Those same disenchanted millennials are starting to think they are entitled to a share of the worlds wealth.

 

No doubt the boomers of the world will continue on the whole to not really care, failing to notice that the disenchanted are no longer a minority – while they are in fact becoming a majority. Corbyn, Trump etc haven’t failed to notice, and realise their votes count. Soon it will be about keeping these revolters happy. The only way to do that is to change the system.

 

The crypto mania is one more big vote of no-confidence in the FIAT system on a global scale. The only way central bankers are going to restore confidence is to fix the system, and one of the ways they will need to do that is to make money credible again, stop inflating the money supply, start raising interest rates. The crypto mania is one of the many triggers that will lead to this happening in my opinion – actually I’ve read articles by a few economists who seem to be stating the same thing. As interest rates go up, the housing market is the loser as it goes pop. Will the politicians worry? No. Corbyn for example will prove that those who need it to go pop probably outnumber those who don’t.

 

So that is why I think crypto currencies could help to trigger a proper HPC.

Always interested in peoples opinions.

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4 hours ago, wsn03 said:

The crypto mania is one more big vote of no-confidence in the FIAT system on a global scale. The only way central bankers are going to restore confidence is to fix the system, and one of the ways they will need to do that is to make money credible again, stop inflating the money supply, start raising interest rates. The crypto mania is one of the many triggers that will lead to this happening in my opinion – actually I’ve read articles by a few economists who seem to be stating the same thing. As interest rates go up, the housing market is the loser as it goes pop. Will the politicians worry? No. Corbyn for example will prove that those who need it to go pop probably outnumber those who don’t.

 

Many people are not worried about fiat, but about their fiat specifically. Countries with very high inflation or repressive political regimes - ones mentioned a lot in this context include: China, India, Zimbabwe and Brazil. It is well known that affluent foreigners may wish to hide some wealth in London property and will not be too concerned if the price falls (at least they have got the money out of the country). This can apply to crypto as well - it is risky and may lose a lot, but at least it is not depreciating in a hyperinflationary currency or being seized by government. Ironically some of these people probably just want to get into western fiat (most likely US dollars). This may only be a small amount of the total demand though.

 

Can you provide a link to some of the articles you've seen?

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Fantastic, I am over 50, I didn't even know I had all the wealth. How much will I get and how soon can I get my hands on it? 

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4 hours ago, wsn03 said:

For various reasons I don’t think crypto currencies will be worth anything long term, they will collapse as a tulip bubble just in my opinion (no I’m not a fan of that, and yes I have now researched them, this is just my opinion).

You don't understand the blockchain to write the above.  If you understood the blockchain and its inherent benefits, you would not write the above.  I'm not going to write yet another paragraph listing the various real-world problem-solving benefits of the blockchain - it's just another reminder to spend 5 or 10 minutes researching the blockchain and its various benefits.  There's a lot of smart money that's invested in cryptos right now.  A lot of big business too. MoneyGram, IBM, AmEx, Santander, Bosch, Volkswagen, etc.  Many more big businesses to follow.  The blockchain is NOT a "tulip bubble".  It is here to stay.  It's as significant an invention as the internet.  Do NOT think of it only as "digital cash" - it solves many diverse problems that are absolutely zero to do with currencies.  Research, research, research. 

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4 hours ago, wsn03 said:

So that is why I think crypto currencies could help to trigger a proper HPC.

From my point of view, being cash rich and understanding cryptos - you can make an absolute TON of money right now.  Being cash poor but paying off a mortgage? You're shit out of luck.  You're holding an illiquid, overpriced asset that will take 6 months to sell - while crypto investors make enough money to retire in those 6 short months.

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2 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

You don't understand the blockchain to write the above.  If you understood the blockchain and its inherent benefits, you would not write the above.  I'm not going to write yet another paragraph listing the various real-world problem-solving benefits of the blockchain - it's just another reminder to spend 5 or 10 minutes researching the blockchain and its various benefits.  There's a lot of smart money that's invested in cryptos right now.  A lot of big business too. MoneyGram, IBM, AmEx, Santander, Bosch, Volkswagen, etc.  Many more big businesses to follow.  The blockchain is NOT a "tulip bubble".  It is here to stay.  It's as significant an invention as the internet.  Do NOT think of it only as "digital cash" - it solves many diverse problems that are absolutely zero to do with currencies.  Research, research, research. 

Blockchain and cryptocurrencies are not the same thing.

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5 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Blockchain and cryptocurrencies are not the same thing.

The blockchain IS THE THING. This is the technology that means we can send ONE instance of data, no double spend.  It means we can authenticate without a 3rd party.   No need to trust.  I don't really like the term "cryptocurrency" - it's meaningless and makes people think of someone buying a coffee with bitcoin.  Many business models that use a blockchain have tokens, not "currency".  The tokens are designed to pay for services/retrieve data that the blockchain provides.  The token is not used outside of the blockchain at all.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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4 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

The blockchain IS THE THING. This is the technology that means we can send ONE instance of data, no double spend.  It means we can authenticate without a 3rd party.   No need to trust.  I don't really like the term "cryptocurrency" - it's meaningless and makes people think of someone buying a coffee with bitcoin.  Many business models that use a blockchain have tokens, not "currency".  The tokens are designed to pay for services/retrieve data that the blockchain provides. 

All of which is terribly exciting, however from your enthusiam and refusal to recognise that there may well be some downsides to these "tokens" i will just have to wish you well.  Im afraid im going to pass on being a multi millionare!

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1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

Fantastic, I am over 50, I didn't even know I had all the wealth. How much will I get and how soon can I get my hands on it? 

 

I'm only a few years away from being over 50 and looking forward to being wealthy as well, I assume the government automatically make you wealthy just after your 50th birthday?

Going to have to sell my bitcoin now that I've been told its only for the under 30's.

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9 minutes ago, Pitchfork said:

 

I'm only a few years away from being over 50 and looking forward to being wealthy as well, I assume the government automatically make you wealthy just after your 50th birthday?

Going to have to sell my bitcoin now that I've been told its only for the under 30's.

Who told you its only for the under 30s? 

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6 minutes ago, wsn03 said:

Who told you its only for the under 30s? 

My bad, its only for the under 40's. The over 40's dont believe in it, according to the OP.

I've always been one to go against the grain though and in my mind I'm still a 20 something....

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1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

Name one of them.

Use cases of the blockchain? There are many, and you can find them if you want....but here, I can Google it for you:-

https://www.coindesk.com/information/applications-use-cases-blockchains/

http://uk.businessinsider.com/blockchain-technology-applications-use-cases-2017-9

 


 

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

All of which is terribly exciting, however from your enthusiam and refusal to recognise that there may well be some downsides to these "tokens" i will just have to wish you well.  Im afraid im going to pass on being a multi millionare!

You didn't mention what those downsides were.

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1 hour ago, canbuywontbuy said:

You don't understand the blockchain to write the above.  If you understood the blockchain and its inherent benefits, you would not write the above.  I'm not going to write yet another paragraph listing the various real-world problem-solving benefits of the blockchain - it's just another reminder to spend 5 or 10 minutes researching the blockchain and its various benefits.  There's a lot of smart money that's invested in cryptos right now.  A lot of big business too. MoneyGram, IBM, AmEx, Santander, Bosch, Volkswagen, etc.  Many more big businesses to follow.  The blockchain is NOT a "tulip bubble".  It is here to stay.  It's as significant an invention as the internet.  Do NOT think of it only as "digital cash" - it solves many diverse problems that are absolutely zero to do with currencies.  Research, research, research. 

Where is the invention.

I was working with databases that as each block was created chained it to the previous block along with a hash key that when validated would confirm that both the block and chain was valid 35 years ago. Around 5 years ago I came across a pension system that still used this technology.

I looked at bitcoin a couple of years ago and after wading through the details, thought this is just a way of making money by burning electricity, even worse the more the price of bitcoin rises the more electricity will be burnt. I hear mining 1 bitcoin now generates around 60 tons of carbon dioxide.  This seems a ridiculously expensive way of logging/verifying what is still a very small number of transaction. Also as the price rises and the number of miners reduces the risk of a party or nation hijacking the chain must become an issue.

That not to say cryptocurrencies don't have a role, (Ripple does seen to have a genuine use case beyond speculation), but the benefits are vastly overplayed - as always happens with IT's next big thing.  

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9 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Where is the invention.

I was working with databases that as each block was created chained it to the previous block along with a hash key that when validated would confirm that both the block and chain was valid 35 years ago. Around 5 years ago I came across a pension system that still used this technology.  

So was this database byzantine fault tolerant without recourse to a central authority ?.

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26 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

So was this database byzantine fault tolerant without recourse to a central authority ?.

No it was a single database so byzantine fault tolerance was not required.

I am also not convinced about the massive amount of replication inherent in bitcoin. I suspect that at some point in the not very distant future someone will come up with the revolutionary idea of replacing all this replication with one secure system hosted by a trusted third party. 

This new invention could be the next next big thing. 

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10 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

No it was a single database so byzantine fault tolerance was not required.

I am also not convinced about the massive amount of replication inherent in bitcoin. I suspect that at some point in the not very distant future someone will come up with the revolutionary idea of replacing all this replication with one secure system hosted by a trusted third party. 

This new invention could be the next next big thing. 

Ah you mean a central bank lol?

Ripple already have that for you.

Please not another 'Why crypto thread'. ZZZZ

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1 hour ago, Pitchfork said:

My bad, its only for the under 40's. The over 40's dont believe in it, according to the OP.

I've always been one to go against the grain though and in my mind I'm still a 20 something....

Lol....imnthr OP. Im trying to suggest the millenials are supporting it in its biggest proportions - and you cant blame them. Id support it if i thought it could be made to work...and im nearly 50

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27 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

Ah you mean a central bank lol?

Ripple already have that for you.

Please not another 'Why crypto thread'. ZZZZ

I already mentioned Ripple as having a genuine use case.

Kodak could be another that actually addresses a real problem.

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4 hours ago, Kosmin said:

 

Can you provide a link to some of the articles you've seen?

One of them is called a bitcoin bubble made in millenial heaven. Its an FT article i cant seem to open. Very interesting.  Ill try finding more over the weekend.

Here is a link:

www.ft.com/content/48265e56-f55d-11e7-8715-e94187b3017e

 

 

Edited by wsn03

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  • 406 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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