Auntie Beeb Under The Radar

[doomwatch]

I see they chose Saturday to report

"First-time buyers 'at record low'"

rather than a week day when everyone is lookingat their site.

Rather selective report timing or am I been too paranoid ?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4657868.stm

[timmy_30]

"The average person now needs a deposit of almost £24,000 and is aged 33 when they buy their first home. "

What I'd be fascinated to know is of the 320,000 FTBs that did enter the market last year how many are divorcees buying their first home following a marriage breakup. After all a 33 year old with a qtr in the bank is hardly the sterotypical FTB are they.

[Guest]

There are lies, damned lies, and National Statistics...

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=170

Look!

Divorces have flat-lined since 1981!!!!!!

GOSH!!!!!

And we've had TWO housing BOOMs and ONE house price CRASH since then!!!!!

Gosh!!!!!

Does this mean divorces has anything to do with anything? Hmmmmm

[timmy_30]

Thanks Mega, so about 170,000 divroces a year..... a fair % of the lets say, 350,000 or so involved must have to buy a house, the first house soley in their name with the money.

I wasn't trying to imply that the collapse of the FTB numbers has anything at all to do with divorces, more that their is/ has been since the early 80s a fairly constant number of divorces creating new households, but that the almost complete absense of what might be regarded as genuine FTBs ( young fresh faced couples starting out in life ) has skewed the data to the extent that the typical FTB is now 33 years old and has a substantial lump sum.

So if the divorcees were stripped out would the % of non divorced, <30 FTBs be 1, 2% of the market?

And if that is the case, then the only supposed FTBs left are those who infact were already in the market but have recently been forced to buy the first house soley in their name

[Guest]

I like to look at rates of change. The flat-lining of divorces for many many years kicks one argument for HPI out of the water. It's not a convincing accelerant.

Who knows where a divorcee lives? Moves in with mum and dad for a bit then rents with a mate, moves in with his boyfriend? Whatever.

Edited January 30, 2006 by megaflop

[ILikeBigBoobs]

How does the market define a FTBuyer? I suspect it's not as clear cut as it seems - I have to say that no one has ever asked me, when I've bought a property in the past, whether I'm a FTB or not!

I suspect a fair number of these 320,000 are not actually 'First Time Buyers' as such and the numbers may, for instance, include people who have STR'd and returned to the market to buy along with other groups who are not selling a home to buy another.

Or is there, these days, a box on some unspecified form that says "Are you buying a property for the first time"?

Edited January 30, 2006 by ILikeBigBoobs

[Guest]

Can you be a "born again first time buyer?"

[ILikeBigBoobs]

Can you be a "born again first time buyer?"

It seems quite possible that you can (at least according to the official figures) and if so then the even the lowly 7% figure is an exageration ..Maybe someone can clear this up?

Edit - I wonder if these numbers on so called FTBs come from the EAs? Perhaps they put anyone down as a FTB when you reply "No" to the "have you another property to sell" question? As far as I'm aware that's the only method used which would get close to finding out who is and isn't a FTB.

Edited January 30, 2006 by ILikeBigBoobs

[ILikeBigBoobs]

Does anyone know whether the 320,000 'so-called' FTBers entering the market last year were actually all genuine FTBers? Can anyone throw any light on how someone is classed and entered into the figures as a FTB?