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What/who will collapse first in 2018


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HOLA441
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HOLA442

Check out this headline :D

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6265569/No-deal-Brexit-cause-worst-economic-crash-45-YEARS.html

Quote

No-deal Brexit could cause the worst economic crash since the 'Three Day Week' in 1974 with the Pound slumping and Britons hoarding food, government watchdog warns

Even I find this over the top, maximum I see pound parity with the USD and Mark Carnage having to raise to 5%.

 

 

 

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HOLA444
12 minutes ago, Sausage said:

Patisserie Valerie seems to be fraud based collapse, but the other retailers going belly up this week... Have they all had a quarterly rent bill or something?

Coast went bankrupt due to not receive money for sold products from their House of Fraser concessions...

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HOLA445
25 minutes ago, Sausage said:

Patisserie Valerie seems to be fraud based collapse, but the other retailers going belly up this week... Have they all had a quarterly rent bill or something?

Awful place with very expensive and mass produced pseudo-french 'bakery' specialties... which generally taste like sh1te.... saying this as somebody who frequents Europe, including France, and loves off high street small family independent bakeries.

I wouldn't miss them.

Crap coffee too IMO.

These sharks have displaced far to many local bakeries.

 

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HOLA446
33 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Awful place with very expensive and mass produced pseudo-french 'bakery' specialties... which generally taste like sh1te.... saying this as somebody who frequents Europe, including France, and loves off high street small family independent bakeries.

I wouldn't miss them.

Crap coffee too IMO.

These sharks have displaced far to many local bakeries.

 

I keep repeating myself but fux Starbucks, coasta and these fancy places.

MaccyD do the best coffee.

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HOLA447
22 minutes ago, spyguy said:

MaccyD do the best coffee.

I agree.. just have to pinch my nose when I go in to order one...

That weird synthetic funk of their restaurants... the amalgam of smelly kids & sick, plastics, industrial cleaning products, processed meat/food & the chemical byproducts of cooking them, fat fryers, toilet, primark's best double-polyester chav track suit. What did I miss?

But yes... good coffee... and sadly much better than my old.. old favourite of Tim Hortons...

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HOLA4410
19 hours ago, No One said:

Check out this headline :D

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6265569/No-deal-Brexit-cause-worst-economic-crash-45-YEARS.html

Even I find this over the top, maximum I see pound parity with the USD and Mark Carnage having to raise to 5%.

 

 

 

Its balls. And I say that as someone who voted Remain.

Leaving the EU will impact UK->EU trade a bit.

But Rest of World->UK trade will be a benefit, lower tariffs.

A lot of 'poor outside of EU' depends on the assumption that the EU offers a superior polical/economic model. It doesnt.

The numberof Brits exposed to exporting is pretty small.

UK will have a massive saving from getting all the mainly EEers off its benefits.

 

 

 

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HOLA4411
On 13/10/2018 at 08:53, spyguy said:

Its balls. And I say that as someone who voted Remain.

Leaving the EU will impact UK->EU trade a bit.

But Rest of World->UK trade will be a benefit, lower tariffs.

A lot of 'poor outside of EU' depends on the assumption that the EU offers a superior polical/economic model. It doesnt.

The numberof Brits exposed to exporting is pretty small.

UK will have a massive saving from getting all the mainly EEers off its benefits.

There is a lot of bipartisan tripe out there. I don't believe the headline myself, but I know others will, which will help change sentiment. 

 

 

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HOLA4412
On 13/10/2018 at 08:53, spyguy said:

UK will have a massive saving from getting all the mainly EEers off its benefits.

 

Massive? Not really. If we're just talking on the accounts for EE benefits its probably on par with the brexit bus figure each week... however, its a rather pointless discussion unless you want to ignore the net benefits of having EEs here working, paying taxes, contributing to society and all that jazz. etc... 

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HOLA4413
54 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Massive? Not really. If we're just talking on the accounts for EE benefits its probably on par with the brexit bus figure each week... however, its a rather pointless discussion unless you want to ignore the net benefits of having EEs here working, paying taxes, contributing to society and all that jazz. etc... 

Repeating.

Mrs spy is primary teacher.

Her and her friends classes is 20/30% EE. Every single EE kid is pupil premium i.e. parents earn less than 12k.

UKGOV is just not being forthcoming wih the cost of EE migration into the uK - tax credits, HB and public services.

 

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HOLA4414

EY Stupid Club forecast worst year since 2008.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-economy-heading-worst-since-142608207.html

Quote

The British economy is heading for its worst year in almost a decade amid the growing risks from no-deal Brexit, according to a leading economic forecaster.

After official figures revealed zero growth in GDP in August, the EY Item Club said the economy would struggle to recover in the final months of the year owing to the increasing likelihood of Britain crashing out of the EU in less than six months’ time.

The group of economists, which is the only non-government forecasting organisation to use the Treasury model of the economy, said it had downgraded its growth forecast for this year and next as a consequence.

It forecast growth of 1.3% for the whole of 2018, down from a previous estimate of 1.4%. This would be the worst annual period for growth since the financial crisis. It also downgraded the outlook for the second quarter running.

EY Item Club forecast a modest recovery next year if there was a smooth Brexit deal, with growth of 1.5%, down from its previous estimate of 1.6%.

Economists have said failure to reach such a deal could significantly harm the UK economy, with the International Monetary Fund warning of “dire consequences” for growth.

The government’s economic forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, last week raised the prospect of a no-deal scenario triggering border delays, companies and consumers stockpiling food and other supplies, and aircraft being unable to fly in and out of Britain.

The Item Club said Brexit uncertainties were influencing business investment decisions, but added that efforts to find alternative suppliers in the UK rather than the EU may lead to an increase in spending.

It also said weaker growth in the eurozone had sapped appetite for exports, as the world economy digests the impact of US import tariffs that have already begun to drag on economic activity.

 

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18 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Repeating.

Mrs spy is primary teacher.

Her and her friends classes is 20/30% EE. Every single EE kid is pupil premium i.e. parents earn less than 12k.

UKGOV is just not being forthcoming wih the cost of EE migration into the uK - tax credits, HB and public services.

 

At least they actually tell the school they are claiming benefits - when I was a school governor the bane of my life was getting those that I knew claimed to actually tell the school that they did..

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3 minutes ago, Houdini said:

At least they actually tell the school they are claiming benefits - when I was a school governor the bane of my life was getting those that I knew claimed to actually tell the school that they did..

Hmm,

The yare very very keen to kick off and ask for stuff - free meals, extras.

I wasl also a governor.

We'd get the odd broken limb - about 1 every 3 years.

British parents just accepted it as an accident.

The last  2 braeks have been EE. Both have tried to sue the school.

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HOLA4418
1 minute ago, spyguy said:

Hmm,

The yare very very keen to kick off and ask for stuff - free meals, extras.

I wasl also a governor.

We'd get the odd broken limb - about 1 every 3 years.

British parents just accepted it as an accident.

The last  2 braeks have been EE. Both have tried to sue the school.

I probably should have been clearer the people we had difficulty getting to tell us were British..

The EE are no different from the travellers I used to have to deal with - but at least with the travellers they used to listen to the senior members of the family so provided you knew who to speak to you could sort things out*

* That's no longer the case as the 2 local families are now in open warfare.....

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HOLA4420
2 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

Massive? Not really. If we're just talking on the accounts for EE benefits its probably on par with the brexit bus figure each week... however, its a rather pointless discussion unless you want to ignore the net benefits of having EEs here working, paying taxes, contributing to society and all that jazz. etc... 

Surely you'd have to compare it to what benefits Uk migrants recieved in EE countries.

Got any figures? 

From articles like this , it appears like they can get very little ..

In search of the only Briton in Poland claiming benefits

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/19/-sp-search-for-only-briton-poland-claiming-benefits

Edit: from this article it provides some figure on Uk subjects recieving EE country benefits 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu

 

EU_Unemployment_Datablog_do.svg

 

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship
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HOLA4421
1 hour ago, Houdini said:

At least they actually tell the school they are claiming benefits - when I was a school governor the bane of my life was getting those that I knew claimed to actually tell the school that they did..

Always had free dinners...... didn't have a problem with that, all the free dinner kids had a special queue, felt special, my nephew got two scholarships.....?

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53 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

Surely you'd have to compare it to what benefits Uk migrants recieved in EE countries.

Got any figures? 

From articles like this , it appears like they can get very little ..

In search of the only Briton in Poland claiming benefits

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/19/-sp-search-for-only-briton-poland-claiming-benefits

Edit: from this article it provides some figure on Uk subjects recieving EE country benefits 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu

 

EU_Unemployment_Datablog_do.svg

 

That is truly horrific..............Spy is quite right.  We should be able to save a fortune after Brexit!

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HOLA4424
5 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

Surely you'd have to compare it to what benefits Uk migrants recieved in EE countries.

Got any figures? 

From articles like this , it appears like they can get very little ..

In search of the only Briton in Poland claiming benefits

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/19/-sp-search-for-only-briton-poland-claiming-benefits

Edit: from this article it provides some figure on Uk subjects recieving EE country benefits 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu

 

EU_Unemployment_Datablog_do.svg

 

So more EU nationals are on benefit in the UK, than UK nationals are on benefit in the EU..... not sure you've thought this graph through

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