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What/who will collapse first in 2018


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4 hours ago, inbruges said:

This is the way I see it.

I am doing well in life if you was consider education, working hard and earning good money, where there is now in 2018 an argument against that scenario. One day I take someone off the street who cannot or will not take care of themselves, for a while I put a roof over their head, clean them up and get them strong and confident again. Then months later as I bring them breakfast in bed before shooting off to work they scream at me for drawing the curtains and waking them up and tell me to cut the crust off the f*****g toast next time

That's why I am drawn more to so called "right wing politics" these days. In truth I don't believe in right and left politics, sometimes we have to be tough on ourselves and others.

In my defence I made clear Wednesday is lie in day

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2 hours ago, macca13 said:

How much tax did Amazon, Uber, Google, Virgin Care..etc etc.. pay in the UK last year? How much profit did the make? Actual profit as there are ways of cooking the books on that for sure.. Like Starbucks did by buying coffee cups from their own offshore company for £2.50 so they made no profit on their coffee they sold.. 

I know Google we’re in a fight with over paying tax in Ireland.. The government were refusing to collect tax that a court ordered Google to pay to them.. (absolutely mental) as Google might up sticks and leave if they were made to pay their share of tax owed.. 

So you can't actually name a tax you just make assumptions about Amazon without any research. 

For reference in Europe as a whole Amazon made €48m in profit in 2016 due to the amount it spent on things like AWS, the Grand Tour and expansion. You can see for yourself at https://document-api-images-prod.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/docs/8V7KiA3n-tbq2jWfRwLFbYi3WeaSokyDQxXkgMxGUH4/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAJEYYF5AJTA2D3LWA%2F20180602%2Feu-west-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20180602T162801Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=FQoDYXdzEEUaDC3nTBKmnX4h7ItPyCK3A6NGvlkBeigZ4b0CTOe%2FYLaVcfgNcEHqR420TRWSKeQ1CaYlPAwHJVLXnwasb1J5HfjDaO3xRoeA3dkBSrhmzi0TIFzBtj9THXy3BEqW2ujRIAC8AFrYq6hGa0ZHOA8InqBif6a6LAYkvIj3VmbpnISb3fexckMf1Sz%2BRc7uZ4tzIKBcbGJtfhELri5%2F87%2BuyGvX7%2B9RKw5fhbrwN%2FoMPqWfoH47xKXClalK7QHPZRkMAcjOGJxqUR5vSRYb5gwzlAxIkwmSF3ta3A3F9bBTW0aMM1Q14aRdBBqEAyAGjj6lo35ZYIdAfxKVC32jikviY%2FIwZrvjE4KWcL%2FIx0aw8jge%2BE%2BGgjxUeuh9OonioUSX1yx9e2%2BI6XQAfNIVJMaUrqoGNWh7kQ4rNvaqvL6t1RtQ%2FSrz64kF2fsqIiKLiY2%2Bl7y6mE27jNabNBv7tETn7MIm7hqH6%2B%2BRwsM2LgeP2Z9dTX6p%2FPMLL%2FdBN%2FE5Ya%2BtAUblffYYkd143AOodJUnkdVJ6KkvSeAFzZVsOUwNY7OJTdw%2FDo2lT0IKr1UIYc4teFoEP2RwvA%2FsMbPnLSaakqVVJp8SLmwopZfK2AU%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=a7d6b212028dfcd20dedfb5b5f4ab9d38104e4a8d978d5148ba064aac849d4e2

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5 hours ago, Pitchfork said:

 

I'll agree that convienince is another big factor but getting something next day after a couple of mouse clicks is convienience rather than customer service.

For me it's customer service. Order doesn't arrive - no problem we'll send another one, broken TV money refunded and collected a week later in the box of the replacement TV. also when you need to speak to them the call back is instant you aren't spending 30 minutes in a queue before someone picks up the phone (EE / the Range I'm looking at you).

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3 hours ago, Houdini said:

So you can't actually name a tax you just make assumptions about Amazon without any research. 

For reference in Europe as a whole Amazon made €48m in profit in 2016 due to the amount it spent on things like AWS, the Grand Tour and expansion. 

Tax avoiders.. all day long.. The owner is the richest man in the world, yet they only pay 7.4million in UK tax.. It’s not rocket Science..

also slavers.. I’m sure most of the people delivering their stuff are on less than minimum wage.. disgusting company run on greed..  

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/technology/2017/aug/10/amazon-uk-halves-its-corporation-tax-to-74m-as-sales-soar-to-7bn

Edited by macca13
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4 hours ago, Houdini said:

Link didn't work for me.

In any case, going by the accounts of one of their regional entities is a mug's game - you'll just see what the taxman is meant to see. I'm sure the costs are real enough, but they're booked to Europe precisely to keep the tax bill down in a higher tax region.

Harder to obfuscate that stuff at global level. AMZN booked global earnings (i.e. profits) of $2.37bn in 2016. Let's say 25% can be attributed to EU activities, convert to GBP ... I make it £400m.

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1 hour ago, macca13 said:

Tax avoiders.. all day long.. The owner is the richest man in the world, yet they only pay 7.4million in UK tax.. It’s not rocket Science..

also slavers.. I’m sure most of the people delivering their stuff are on less than minimum wage.. disgusting company run on greed..  

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/technology/2017/aug/10/amazon-uk-halves-its-corporation-tax-to-74m-as-sales-soar-to-7bn

Nope.

Amazon will pay a lot in payroll taxes, duty, rates, etc.

They wont pay much corp tax as they dont make a profit.

Amazon low low prices are a transfer from from its bind and equity holders to the plebs.

Youd have a point with Costa though.

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8 hours ago, spyguy said:

Earning are revenue.

Not in US financial reporting - that's why the market wets its pants over EPS

Ok, try this one - https://variety.com/2018/digital/news/amazon-q1-2018-earnings-shares-record-highs-1202789046/

"Amazon reported $51.0 billion in sales for the first quarter and a net profit of $1.63 billion for the first quarter of 2018"

Or: https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/amzn/financials?query=income-statement

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I’m following two developments which I fully expect to be shelved. Both effect me as they involve where I live and work and can get local info on the plans.

One is the redevelopment of Earls Court which is already in trouble. They’ve just re-sold the Empress State building back to the Met police for their counter terrorism unit. Word is all the local shops they bought out, they have made a U-turn and are re-leasing them.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/property-developer-capco-takes-131m-hit-on-earls-court-scheme-a3772281.html

The other is the Westfield development of Croydon. Brick and mortar retail is blatantly on the downturn in the current climate and this will be a disastrous investment. I think the bean counters will be well aware of this and if the financial downturn gathers pace, I think it will just be parked which will bad news for Croydon.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/05/john-lewis-waitrose-anchor-1-4bn-westfield-croydon/

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On 02/06/2018 at 10:20, monkeyman1974 said:

House of Fraser would be a interesting collapse.. It's 15,000+ staff, are 2/3rds concession employed - showrooming from a loss making retail property portfolio.. You'd have thought the stronger / aligned brands (make-up for example) could replicate the "market hall" by themselves but that would require co-ordination. HoF in many ways was/is a 'serviced office' for retail brands, and therefore is highly vulnerable to any downturn. Plus who really needs a mammoth store in Hull, or Telford

Could HoF go into administration? (as opposed to the already proposed CVA).

 

I think basically HoF needs more funding in order to carry out its CVA plan's (as well as agreement from landlords).  Naturally the banks are a little reluctant.

 

In my opinion you would be mad to lend even more money to HoF.

 

If they do go down I am sure the landmark London stores will be saved, but what about the rest.

 

I know the Nottingham, Telford and Birmingham HoFs.  If Nottingham and Telford closed they would make a right mess of the 60s/70s shopping centres they were in.  With massive shops that could not realistically be used for anything else.

 

The Brum store is a stand alone 6 story building, probably built in the 50s or 60s, again that would make a total mess of the area it is in, you would either need to knock it down, or extensively renovate it, turning it into offices.

 

Considering the impact on already depressed/depressing shopping areas, maybe the government will propose nationalising it (only half joking here!)

Edited by reddog
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41 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

No they won't. "Employees" are likely on minimum wage or very low salaries so paying nothing or virtually nothing in tax/NI because of the personal allowance. All employee salaries are business costs which reduce profits and therefore corporation tax payable for Amazon. Minimum wage employees also means that not only are Amazon paying very little in payroll taxes but every other taxpayer is subsidising them via tax credits/LHA/housing benefit etc for their low paid employees. Its win-win for Amazon and lose-lose for taxpayers.

Amazon just took advantage of gormless Browns tax credits, along with nail bars, dog walking, deliveroo.

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I don’t use Amazon because I don’t agree with their business practices. Not a loss in the grand scheme of things. Books are the same price as Waterstones, and video games are cheaper elsewhere and you actually get the games early (before release date) whilst my experience of Amazon when it comes to pre-orders expect it after the release date.

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2 hours ago, fru-gal said:

They did but are the Tories doing anything to wean people off tax credits/part-time work?

They tried. They are doing the reform slowly, too slowly.

LibDem peer did the whole blocking in the Lords.

Idiots.

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1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

I don’t use Amazon because I don’t agree with their business practices. Not a loss in the grand scheme of things. Books are the same price as Waterstones, and video games are cheaper elsewhere and you actually get the games early (before release date) whilst my experience of Amazon when it comes to pre-orders expect it after the release date.

I use amazon as i grew up 60 miles from decent.

Im used to thinking what i want and having a 3h round trip to get it.

Amazon generous share and bond holders save me that 3h now, for free.

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On 03/06/2018 at 16:03, reddog said:

Could HoF go into administration? (as opposed to the already proposed CVA).

 

I think basically HoF needs more funding in order to carry out its CVA plan's (as well as agreement from landlords).  Naturally the banks are a little reluctant.

 

In my opinion you would be mad to lend even more money to HoF.

 

If they do go down I am sure the landmark London stores will be saved, but what about the rest.

 

I know the Nottingham, Telford and Birmingham HoFs.  If Nottingham and Telford closed they would make a right mess of the 60s/70s shopping centres they were in.  With massive shops that could not realistically be used for anything else.

 

The Brum store is a stand alone 6 story building, probably built in the 50s or 60s, again that would make a total mess of the area it is in, you would either need to knock it down, or extensively renovate it, turning it into offices.

 

Considering the impact on already depressed/depressing shopping areas, maybe the government will propose nationalising it (only half joking here!)

The bbc has the staff numbers quoted below. Though they look very high (incorrect?) considering  only 59 stores. though maybe staff count is weighted towards cosmetics, and fragrance concessions? 

House of Fraser has 59 stores in the UK and Ireland, more than 6,000 employees and 11,500 concession staff.”

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Discounters in trouble too...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44383097

Quote

About 100 of Poundworld's outlets were already under threat of closure. But this restructuring was put on hold by TPG, a US private equity firm, after it received expressions of interest in the company.

But the prospective buyers seem to have got cold feet.

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House of Fraser proposed store closure list in the plan

The House of Fraser stores identified for closure:

Altrincham, Aylesbury, Birkenhead, Birmingham, Bournemouth, Camberley, Cardiff, Carlisle, Chichester, Cirencester, Cwmbran, Darlington, Doncaster, Edinburgh Frasers, Epsom, Grimsby, High Wycombe, Hull, Leamington Spa, Lincoln, London Oxford Street, London King William Street, Middlesbrough, Milton Keynes, Plymouth, Shrewsbury, Skipton, Swindon, Telford, Wolverhampton, Worcester.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44394948

 

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13 minutes ago, Ash4781 said:

House of Fraser proposed store closure list in the plan

The House of Fraser stores identified for closure:

Altrincham, Aylesbury, Birkenhead, Birmingham, Bournemouth, Camberley, Cardiff, Carlisle, Chichester, Cirencester, Cwmbran, Darlington, Doncaster, Edinburgh Frasers, Epsom, Grimsby, High Wycombe, Hull, Leamington Spa, Lincoln, London Oxford Street, London King William Street, Middlesbrough, Milton Keynes, Plymouth, Shrewsbury, Skipton, Swindon, Telford, Wolverhampton, Worcester.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44394948

 

That Milton Keynes one has been dead on it's **** for years.   Birmingham is a biggie, I remember it used to be Rackhams back in the day.  That's a HUGE store. 

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32 minutes ago, stop_the_craziness said:

That Milton Keynes one has been dead on it's **** for years.   Birmingham is a biggie, I remember it used to be Rackhams back in the day.  That's a HUGE store. 

I used to like that one.  Will leave a HUGE hole in MK shopping centre.

I stopped going to MK when all the free parking disappeared and they sold one of the car parks to NCT.

The greed of the councils/public sector is a HUGE problem for the british people.

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The Edinburgh one is a big one also. First large store you come to on Princes Street if coming from the west. Going to stick out like a site  thumb when it's empty. Noticed the other day the old Princes Street BHS store is still empty but they've put up a hoarding across the front to stop it being obvious to shoppers. Can't see them filling either store easily.

As someone else said recently HoF had two anchor stores either end of Princes Street ( the other being Jenner's which they bought but didn't rebrand.). The loss of Jenner's to Edinburgh would have been a be a big shock, it's been a 'local' department store brand for generations.

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  • 434 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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