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Realistbear

Katy At B O E Says Economy Will Fall Below Projections

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http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2...afx2485575.html

Here too, some interesting bits:

Barker is unconvinced that the recent pick-up in the housing market and apparent rise in consumer spending over Christmas will be maintained through the first half of the year as incomes are squeezed by higher oil and gas prices as well as rises in council tax bills.

Sounds a little doveish, but then:

I would not necessarily sign up to the view that inflation will inevitably fall back over the next few months

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Good 'ol Katy--for someone that looks ( a bit) like a younger version of Kim Bassinger she could be the HPC.co.uk pinup?

http://www.audacity.org/Images%20for%20aud...Kate-Barker.jpg

That was quite a shock. I was expecting something a bit. . .. . . .. . .. er . . . . . .. . . . nicer.

Katy, if you are reading, you can become our pin up by doing the right thing. :lol: Rather than selling us down the river.

Aren't things getting interesting though. . .

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That was quite a shock. I was expecting something a bit. . .. . . .. . .. er . . . . . .. . . . nicer.

Katy, if you are reading, you can become our pin up by doing the right thing. :lol: Rather than selling us down the river.

Aren't things getting interesting though. . .

Sorry about the shock--here's a better one of the look-a-like that you may prefer.

th_K1502_28.jpg

post-1066-1138633593.jpg

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If the economy is doomed – what’s this all about?

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060130/214/g2i7w.html

Economists argued that the pick up could be to do with buoyant January sales, adding that with money supply growth on the up the risk to retail sales growth is now skewed to the upside.

The annual growth rate rose to 3.9% but remained well below rates above 5% seen a year earlier.

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Bank dove Barker feels it might be time to put a little oomph into the economy

After two refusals, the interest rate-setter warms to the argument for a cut

Ashley Seager

Monday January 30, 2006

The Guardian

Kate Barker gives the impression of someone who would not need much persuading to vote for another interest rate cut. During nearly five years on the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, she has normally been part of any group on the nine-member body that favours lower rates - earning a dovish reputation in the policy debate.

The former CBI chief economist is now concerned that the economy may lack the "oomph" to provide the sort of recovery that will ensure inflation is up at its target in two years' time - the MPC's preferred horizon, since it takes up to two years for interest-rate changes to feed through fully into the economy.

"You're starting from a position where to keep inflation on track in the longer term you do need to have growth picking up," she told the Guardian.

The poor response of manufacturing output to the robust growth in the world economy is, she says, "precisely one of the reasons why since November I have been a little bit less confident about the forecasts we produced [that month]".

She is unconvinced that the recent pick-up in the housing market and apparent rise in consumer spending over Christmas will be maintained through the first half of the year.

That is because people's incomes remain squeezed by higher oil and gas prices and rises in things such as council tax. Add in the depressing effects of rising unemployment and there is little reason to expect a spending boom. She also feels that Gordon Brown's scrapping in December of a plan to allow people to put residential property in their pension schemes could have a downward effect on the housing market.

"So there are question marks about whether the pace of growth is going to prove strong enough, and this is the question for the February forecast round," she says, referring to the MPC's quarterly inflation and growth forecasts.

Why, then, did she not join her colleague, Steve Nickell, in voting for a rate cut this month or in December, especially now that wage growth seems to be slowing down? "In the short term, I'd like to say that one dog that didn't bark was the short-term inflation pressures from the wage round, but the other dog that didn't bark was that growth ... did pick up in the fourth quarter."

The economy expanded by 0.6% in the fourth quarter from the third, roughly in line with its long-term trend. The improvement was not enough, however, to prevent 2005 seeing the slowest growth for 13 years. Inflation, meanwhile, having risen to 2.5% last year, has now fallen back to the Bank's 2% target, and most City analysts expect it to fall below 2% in the coming months.

But Ms Barker says the economic outlook is not all doom and gloom. The strong world economy should eventually feed through to better exports and higher investment, bringing about the long-awaited rebalancing of the economy away from the consumer. Also, the recent share price gains could boost the economy. And she thinks the jump in gas prices could help push up inflation.

"I would not necessarily sign up to the view that inflation will inevitably fall back over the next few months."

The overall situation "seems to be very finely balanced".

She does not agree with pessimists who say Britain, after several years of growth on the back of rising consumer and government spending, could be in for a long slowdown. "That would not be my best forecast," she says.

She defends moves by central bankers worldwide to cut interest rates sharply after the stock market slump of 2000 to prevent economies stalling. UK rates were cut to a 50-year low of 3.5%. Their actions pumped up house prices and consumer debt. If long-term interest rates or exchange rates were now to move radically, she thinks global monetary policy frameworks are robust enough to offset the damage caused.

The CV

Born November 29, 1957

Education St Hilda's college, Oxford (BA philosophy, politics and economics)

Career From 2001, external member of Bank of England's MPC; 1994-2001 chief economic adviser at the CBI; 1985-1994 chief European economist, Ford motors; 1981 -1985 research officer, National Institute of Economic and Social Research; 1979-1981 investment analyst, Post Office pension fund

Family Married with two children

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Isn't Kate Barker the supposed 'expert' on the MPC?

She's not convinced of the pick up in the housing market?

Edit: Sorry, I mean an expert on the housing market!

Edited by Jason

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She is unconvinced that the recent pick-up in the housing market and apparent rise in consumer spending over Christmas will be maintained through the first half of the year.
That is because people's incomes remain squeezed by higher oil and gas prices and rises in things such as council tax. Add in the depressing effects of rising unemployment and there is little reason to expect a spending boom. She also feels that Gordon Brown's scrapping in December of a plan to allow people to put residential property in their pension schemes could have a downward effect on the housing market
.

Katy sounds just like Maggie. I am afraid she is 100% on the mark. Do we have another Al Greenspan in our midst? I think Katy would be a good Chancellor--not because anyone would be better than the "miracle" man, but because she sees the bottom line.

Katy may not resemble Kim (see posts above to explain) physically but fiscally speaking she is every bit as attractive.

Edited by Realistbear

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She is unconvinced that the recent pick-up in the housing market and apparent rise in consumer spending over Christmas will be maintained through the first half of the year.
That is because people's incomes remain squeezed by higher oil and gas prices and rises in things such as council tax. Add in the depressing effects of rising unemployment and there is little reason to expect a spending boom. She also feels that Gordon Brown's scrapping in December of a plan to allow people to put residential property in their pension schemes could have a downward effect on the housing market
.

Katy sounds just like Maggie. I am afraid she is 100% on the mark. Do we have another Al Greenspan in our midst? I think Katy would be a good Chancellor--not because anyone would be better than the "miracle" man, but because she sees the bottom line.

Katy may not resemble Kim (see posts above to explain) physically but fiscally speaking she is every bit as attractive.

Am I missing something? Surely she is leaning towards rate cuts, which is the last thing we want. She giveth with one hand (things ain't so good....) and taketh away with the other (let's cut rates!).

This 2 year horizon crap is the excuse for doing whatever they want now, with the excuse that they are looking ahead. Who can predict the future? No-one can, so we can't really argue with whatever decision they make.

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Am I missing something? Surely she is leaning towards rate cuts, which is the last thing we want. She giveth with one hand (things ain't so good....) and taketh away with the other (let's cut rates!).

This 2 year horizon crap is the excuse for doing whatever they want now, with the excuse that they are looking ahead. Who can predict the future? No-one can, so we can't really argue with whatever decision they make.

With the Fed possibly looking at 5% (US economy still on a roll) there is little chance of the BoE cutting as that will make the pound vulnerable for a massive sell-off as the only attraction to holding sterling right now are comparitive high IR.

Katy is a realist and seems to avoid spin, if only she looked like Kim...........

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AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH - PLEASE DONT DO THAT AGAIN! I was thinking about someone het. Id rather do Mo Mowlan!

I was thinking about someone het. Id rather do Mo Mowlan
!

For the benefit of the ignorant, what does that (het) mean?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/4739555.stm

Edited by Realistbear

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Here's one lady whose happy to see house prices drive the economy - first sign of a slow down and IRs will be cut. Funny that, I bet all these people on the MPC have big houses worth a couple of million a piece - now would you vote to drive IRs up and see one of your assets go bang ..... nope, I didn't think so.

You haven't got a chance of seeing your house price crash ! :lol:

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Here's one lady whose happy to see house prices drive the economy - first sign of a slow down and IRs will be cut. Funny that, I bet all these people on the MPC have big houses worth a couple of million a piece - now would you vote to drive IRs up and see one of your assets go bang ..... nope, I didn't think so.

You haven't got a chance of seeing your house price crash ! :lol:

Are you saying the MPC members will vote for their own self interest. Surely not IMupNorth. :o

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Are you saying the MPC members will vote for their own self interest. Surely not IMupNorth. :o

In a word yes - my experience of prominent and powerful business people, is that they usually act in their own interests, even if they leave a trail of disaster behind them. They are only judged for what they have truly done, when they are long gone.

Anyone care to disagree !?

:D:D

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In a word yes - my experience of prominent and powerful business people, is that they usually act in their own interests, even if they leave a trail of disaster behind them. They are only judged for what they have truly done, when they are long gone.

Anyone care to disagree !?

:D:D

Er, why can't they just set up a nice spread bet to compensate for any fall in their house price?

Are these people, who you think are acting in their own self-interest incapable of hedging? :rolleyes:

I would say I am disagreeing with you.

NDL

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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