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Mapatasy

RICS warns property market sentiment is turning cautious - House prices to fall in London and south-east in 2018

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8 minutes ago, Mapatasy said:

lower prices were rippling out from central London and would spread to the capital’s outer suburbs and the home counties in the months ahead.

They already have.

The 'sellers' just haven't realised it yet.

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2 hours ago, Maynardgravy said:

They already have.

The 'sellers' just haven't realised it yet.

Cant sell won't sell

Some close relatives sold their house months ago....still trying to buy

Sold for 300k + and are well off

first house 300k has been for sale nearly a year now portal juggled relisted > they offered 275 cash = rejected no counter offer last sale there 250K (early 2017 so exact guide)

second house 230 ish last sale 190 (this year again) they offered 210 cash = no and no counter offer property for sale 3 months no offers.

etc etc

They fully accept that they are part of the problem but they cannot understand why people won't even accept a hefty profit on the last sold price.  Surely people ask for 10% more and come back at 5% off....apparently not

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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5 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

They fully accept that they are part of the problem but they cannot understand why people won't even accept a hefty profit on the last sold price.  Surely people ask for 10% more and come back at 5% off....apparently not

 

Quite simply because there are no forced sellers and they know the Tory party/ BoE have got their back and theyll get their price eventually.

Can't really blame them for wanting their extra gains, these people are 21st century entrepreneurs.

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22 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Cant sell won't sell

Some close relatives sold their house months ago....still trying to buy

Sold for 300k + and are well off

first house 300k has been for sale nearly a year now portal juggled relisted > they offered 275 cash = rejected no counter offer last sale there 250K (early 2017 so exact guide)

second house 230 ish last sale 190 (this year again) they offered 210 cash = no and no counter offer property for sale 3 months no offers.

etc etc

They fully accept that they are part of the problem but they cannot understand why people won't even accept a hefty profit on the last sold price.  Surely people ask for 10% more and come back at 5% off....apparently not

 

I have to say I would never buy a house that has been lived in for less than a year anyway. Why are they moving got to be issues with the place!!

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42 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

 

Sorry double copied

42 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Cant sell won't sell

Some close relatives sold their house months ago....still trying to buy

Sold for 300k + and are well off

first house 300k has been for sale nearly a year now portal juggled relisted > they offered 275 cash = rejected no counter offer last sale there 250K (early 2017 so exact guide)

second house 230 ish last sale 190 (this year again) they offered 210 cash = no and no counter offer property for sale 3 months no offers.

etc etc

They fully accept that they are part of the problem but they cannot understand why people won't even accept a hefty profit on the last sold price.  Surely people ask for 10% more and come back at 5% off....apparently not

 

We are in the same position on two fronts. Sold in July looking for a smaller house we have a massive search area (cheaper than renting that's why no other reason) and helping (only helping not buying) with a flat for our children. Seen two (one of each) we were mildly interested in and made some proper offers about 20% below in both cases, you would think I s*** on the carpet no counter offers. If you haven't read WICAO's excellent book on retiring early please do. I am not retiring early since enjoy my work and its my own biz but the strategies apply to any pot of money. We are going hell for leather now to boiler plate our funds using these strategies and the UK housing market can swing

The point is the T**** who won't reduce are in for a very nasty surprise in the next few years and those who think there 3/4 bed executive detached is worth £750k F*** that - as I said we are downsizing my shed was better built and landscaped than some of these places

Edit: I agree with the comment we are part of the problem, perversely we might be the solution. When you are out of a market and your kids are older it is sort of fun out of taking pot shots at your own generation - in a weird way quite energising and has a moral ring to it ! My wifes favourite line is 'if they don't look like they are going to collapse or hit you we have gone in too high helps I am a  a fit old unit unit who can box ;)

Edited by Greg Bowman

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8 minutes ago, Greg Bowman said:

Sorry double copied

We are in the same position on two fronts. Sold in July looking for a smaller house we have a massive search area (cheaper than renting that's why no other reason) and helping (only helping not buying) with a flat for our children. Seen two (one of each) we were mildly interested in and made some proper offers about 20% below in both cases, you would think I s*** on the carpet no counter offers. If you haven't read WICAO's excellent book on retiring early please do. I am not retiring early since enjoy my work and its my own biz but the strategies apply to any pot of money. We are going hell for leather now to boiler plate our funds using these strategies and the UK housing market can swing

The point is the T**** who won't reduce are in for a very nasty surprise in the next few years and those who think there 3/4 bed executive detached is worth £750k F*** that - as I said we are downsizing my shed was better built and landscaped than some of these places

 

+ 1 WICAO's book is cracking and his blog also!
 

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Wake me up when they are back at pre Camoron/Ozzie prices...they did a sterling job of enriching themselves and their mates whilst dashing the hopes and dreams of millions.

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What exactly counts as central london? Actual selling prices for Z2 west london are just back to the levels 2 years ago. Although places come on the market for 20% more so everyone thinks they have carried on going up 10% a year.

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3 hours ago, Mapatasy said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/20/house-prices-to-fall-in-london-and-south-east-in-2018-say-surveyors

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said that lower prices were rippling out from central London and would spread to the capital’s outer suburbs and the home counties in the months ahead.

Why did no one see that this might happen ? :rolleyes:

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18 minutes ago, M21er said:

Wish I Could Afford One

An excellent blog about aiming for and achieving FIRE  in around ten years.

 

Someone doing good riding the printy printy/ ZIRP stock markets backed by central banks, not a whole lot different to riding the printy printy ZIRP housing market backed by central banks.

 

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5 hours ago, Greg Bowman said:

... I agree with the comment we are part of the problem, perversely we might be the solution. When you are out of a market and your kids are older it is sort of fun out of taking pot shots at your own generation - in a weird way quite energising and has a moral ring to it ! My wifes favourite line is 'if they don't look like they are going to collapse or hit you we have gone in too high helps I am a  a fit old unit unit who can box ;)

The market needs STRs.  I might not be mad-happy about it, but a market needs sellers tempted out by mad-gainz... otherwise something wrong... (vs runaway foreverHPI)

Sorry, I'm just being daft here, but always makes me smile.

The Blairs Christmas 2014 Official Christmas Card - that sort of reaction/look?  :lol:

..See below.....

When I've had a go in the past, it's not all boomers... (many individuals are just fine) - it's just that is where many a mindstate is about 'what it is worth' / ForeverHPI / can't go wrong etc, without much of a knock... in fact you put it best, back in 2015...

Quote

Greg Bowman:  I think there are a fair proportion of boomers in the professional classes who have have been shielded from the vicissitudes of the world for two generations or more They are about to find out how the world works.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Greg Bowman said:

... If you haven't read WICAO's excellent book on retiring early please do. I am not retiring early since enjoy my work and its my own biz but the strategies apply to any pot of money. We are going hell for leather now to boiler plate our funds using these strategies and the UK housing market can swing...

 

6 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

+ 1 WICAO's book is cracking and his blog also!

 

4 hours ago, M21er said:

Wish I Could Afford One

An excellent blog about aiming for and achieving FIRE  in around ten years.

Thanks so much for the hat-tip @Greg Bowman, @jiltedjen and @M21er.  It makes all the effort I put into the blog and book worthwhile.  Really it does.

5 hours ago, username said:

Who is WICAO. I might like to read this.

It's me :-)

If you're interested this is my blog and this is my book.

To save you a click if it's not relevant this is my story in brief.  Back in 2007 I joined HPC as my Plan A was UK house prices returning to normality.  At the same time I started on a Plan B which was to achieve Financial Independence giving me the option to Retire Early.  10 years later Plan A is dead.  Plan B worked out quite well.  In 8.7 years I was able to amass wealth of £1 million (now £1.3 million) by increasing earnings significantly, decreasing spending significantly, building a portfolio of diversified assets then letting compound interest do some work, minimising investing expenses and minimising taxes.  We'll leave the UK next year and relocate to the Med.  It's been a fantastic journey and at age 45 the world is now our oyster.

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39 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said:

 

 

Thanks so much for the hat-tip @Greg Bowman, @jiltedjen and @M21er.  It makes all the effort I put into the blog and book worthwhile.  Really it does.

It's me :-)

If you're interested this is my blog and this is my book.

To save you a click if it's not relevant this is my story in brief.  Back in 2007 I joined HPC as my Plan A was UK house prices returning to normality.  At the same time I started on a Plan B which was to achieve Financial Independence giving me the option to Retire Early.  10 years later Plan A is dead.  Plan B worked out quite well.  In 8.7 years I was able to amass wealth of £1 million (now £1.3 million) by increasing earnings significantly, decreasing spending significantly, building a portfolio of diversified assets then letting compound interest do some work, minimising investing expenses and minimising taxes.  We'll leave the UK next year and relocate to the Med.  It's been a fantastic journey and at age 45 the world is now our oyster.

Hey WICAO, I have read through several articles on your blog - well played and congratulations on realising your dream. Has been genuinely inspirational reading it and will buy your book when I've exhausted your online articles. 

I was wondering if you have read much of Durhamborn's deflation thread and whether you would do things any differently if starting today? (Assuming the predictions for deflation followed by reflation in x years occurs).

e.g. Reflecting on the fact that today is very different from when you started your journey, would you still go for a passive strategy with vanguard for instance?

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2 minutes ago, Rhaegal said:

Hey WICAO, I have read through several articles on your blog - well played and congratulations on realising your dream. Has been genuinely inspirational reading it and will buy your book when I've exhausted your online articles. 

I was wondering if you have read much of Durhamborn's deflation thread and whether you would do things any differently if starting today? (Assuming the predictions for deflation followed by reflation in x years occurs).

e.g. Reflecting on the fact that today is very different from when you started your journey, would you still go for a passive strategy with vanguard for instance?

Thanks Rhaegal.  If I was starting my journey today I would do exactly the same thing again (except for the mistakes I made along the way).  Worth noting I started my journey as we entered the GFC so my introduction to wealth creation was actually wealth destruction.

I follow @durhamborn deflation thread with interest but don't comment.  Those guys are far more intelligent than I could ever be.  Our strategies differ significantly.  S/he is looking at macro trends/charts and making buying decisions based on that analysis.  I tried trading early on and found I was rubbish at it (one of my many mistakes).  So instead I just bought the market (diversification of asset class and country is a critical part of my strategy) and focused on the things I could control.  My strategy works as long as we don't see anything worse than we've seen before (actually given how successful it's all been I can actually see worse than that and still be good but hopefully you get what I mean).

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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