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wsn03

Bitcoin – Is it me?

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I don’t want to post this on the Bubbly Bitcoin Thread, because reading through that it seems to be turning into the Bitcoin Supporters Club thread.

I’m writing this in its own thread, because the Bitcoin thread seems to be full of the same propaganda that I come on this forum to avoid that lives on the outside world, usually in support of the housing market. And I’m struggling to see the difference. Both seem to be rising on a cloud supported by sod all, but with the supporters telling you it can and will go on forever. So I have questions, can anyone help?

The bits I’m lost on that defy the “logic”:

  1. Value?

    Fiat money represents purchasing power in a given country, that was used to represent a share of gold. When it stopped representing gold it started to become worthless in real terms it continued to be supported by governments and the system to ensure it is still given a perceived value – bit like houses are. The US Dollar is the biggest sham, it is totally worthless, but as long as it is backed by the world’s most powerful country (USA), and hoarded by the worlds soon to be most powerful country (China), it will have purchasing power and therefore perceived value.

     

    Bitcoin is a currency, that seems to be formed on a computer, by some bloke who hasn’t even been properly identified from what I can tell. It is not backed by any government, and seemingly isn’t being used much for the purchase of anything in most countries (aside from a few exceptions). Unless I’m wrong, isn’t it just a number on a computer? It’s not backed or representative of any country. It doesn’t have any physical presence – its just an algorithm right? Could I create a spreadsheet of numbers and call it xlscoin, and say there are only 20 million of these numbers, but you can buy them off me – is this any different, especially if I limit the supply? If you all went crazy over it wouldn’t it grow in value? Like my house has, even though no way is it really worth the £550,000 its been “valued” at.

     

     

  2. Support?

    The housing market is fully propped up and supported by the system, institutions and the government, as most of the population has a vested interest. When it falters governments will lose power.

    I believe it won’t burst as a bubble overnight, it will slowly deflate relatively speaking over a long period of time delayed by every desperate and vested interest to keep it high and mighty. By the way I believe in its demise, but I believe it will be slower and less pronounced than it deserves.

     

    Bitcoin is an electronic currency, shrouded in mystery, which is, as far as I can tell, just like the “.dot com” bubble was – it seems to be propped up in value by nothing more than speculation. Like the dot.com bubble, the supporters argue it will take over the world etc. Something like it possibly will one day, but it will be issued and controlled by the people with the real power, the governments and institutions. When the current bitcoin bubble goes pop, it will be instant and rapid. It has a minority of supporters, and is not under the control of any government, therefore I doubt they will do anything to stop it from collapsing. The fact that its purpose is to replace government controlled currencies should shout alarm bells to all its investors everywhere, shouldn’t it?

     

     

  3. It’s very complicated

    I work in IT, I earn my living in IT. I can configure SAP. I can map data migrations. I’m no techie, but I am fairly exposed to the technical world. Despite this, I’m lost on Bitcoin, and I have tried to understand it – ok not too much effort went into that, but a little bit did.

     

    The bitcoin fan club argue that the whole world is going to adopt it. Really? Money is super simple, the only thing more simple is bartering. Money is so simple it works for the masses, because the masses are simple (me included). Because of that the system is able to hide the fact that money no longer has the value that people think it does – again, just like houses.

     

    Bitcoin is so complicated I can’t actually figure out where I would start if I was to buy into it.

    Here is a quote from a post on this forum in the bubbly bitcoin thread:

     

    “ Miners are the minority of nodes in decentralization. If they follow a set of rules that the majority of nodes reject then the majority will orphan the miners by making a new POW algorithm. And bitcoin carries on. There are 10's of thousands of GPUs just waiting to mine bitcoin. They would step in immediately.”

     

    Then add words like FORK and BLOCKCHAIN…and this is going to be adopted by the masses? Really?

     

     

I conclude and I question

Houses are really simple. It’s very easy to fool people into thinking that they are worth a fortune because people need to live in them. And people think estate agents are “property experts”, and the government helps to prop up the lie… its incredible but an easy con.

FIAT currency, same as, easy to use and you can fool people because the government said so etc etc.

 

BITCOIN is a brilliant idea that has gone way out of control. A rationally thought out trading alternative that has become a frenzied bubble for techies. What could possibly go wrong?

 

Is it me? Am I missing something? Am I being really thick here? Or is this another .dot com bubble waiting to burst? Has the wagon got so heavy that the brake is no longer working? Did the clever money jump off it already?

 

Please, if you are blinded by the propaganda or have a vested interest, don’t sprout it here. I just want something that I come on HPC for, some logical informed reasoning, without bias, forethought or lack of reason.

 

Thanks

Edited by wsn03

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Bitcoin is so last week. This week it's all about IOTA, dont'cha know :lol:

I concur with your post 100%... it's all completely lost on me too, and I've got a PhD in data analytics. I do think the current FIAT system has an expiry date, but it's replacement has got to be something more user friendly / transparent than bitcoin in it's current form. Just my two cents, bits, or iotas, or whatever ;)

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Why does gold have value?

Why does silver have value?

Why does bread have value?

 

Until you can answer these fundamental questions, you won't understand Bitcoin.

 

What differentiates blockchain from Fiat is:

1) You are not forced to use blockchain currencies

2) A particular blockchain cannot easily be forged unless it becomes unpopular

3) Regulation is decentralised

 

What differentiates blockchain from physical assets is:

1) It cannot be physically stolen

2) it can immediately be transferred globally

3) It weighs nothing, even for large values

4) It requires telecommunication to work

 

Blockchain is how wealth will be recorded and transferred in the future. Anyone who disagrees does not understand the first 3 questions.

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Freedom and choices..... don't care what they do, what they spend their own money on as long as they face the consequences of their actions....good or bad, and the rest of society who opted out of playing the gambling  game don't suffer because of the good or bad actions of others.;)

Edited by winkie

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Should the medium of exchange (money supply) be issued collectively and debt-free, thereafter to circulate as a common utility?

Or should we borrow it at enormous cost/interest from a commercial cartel, allowing that cartel also to determine its initial allocation?

Collective issuance of a debt-free money supply by the money using community can be either centralised (through the 'state') or distributed among the community, as is the case with crypto currencies. Maybe there is room for both?

IMO one major impact of crypto technology is that it will provoke many people to question the current system of debt slavery.

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1 minute ago, Locke said:

Why does gold have value?

Why does silver have value?

Why does bread have value?

 

Until you can answer these fundamental questions, you won't understand Bitcoin.

 

What differentiates blockchain from Fiat is:

1) You are not forced to use blockchain currencies

2) A particular blockchain cannot easily be forged unless it becomes unpopular

3) Regulation is decentralised

 

What differentiates blockchain from physical assets is:

1) It cannot be physically stolen

2) it can immediately be transferred globally

3) It weighs nothing, even for large values

4) It requires telecommunication to work

 

Blockchain is how wealth will be recorded and transferred in the future. Anyone who disagrees does not understand the first 3 questions.

The death of physical currencies has been overstated for centuries - I love your last line just been with a load of code developers they talk like that......and your first list point 3 is why sooner or later it will be strangled by forces and powers that have been around for millennia and existed before geeks. Computing power is catching up and isn't there a prediction that blockchain will be crackable by 2030? hardly future proof. Finally if you don't think China and Russia doesn't have vast teams trying to crack it now you really have no understanding of  controlled command economies.

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What's to stop it mostly ending up in the hands of the same people who control the money right now? Not being able to lend what they don't have will make a bit of a difference from now, but is it any different when it was all about gold?

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I am a seasoned techy. I do understand bitcoin, to a reasonable degree. I also have a few I bought relatively cheaply back in 2014.

I am on the fence about whether a good cryptocurrency will become essential in future. However, I believe that bitcoin (and the other various tokens) are definitely not appropriate for non-techy entrants. There are a bewildering variety of ways to lose your coins, get scammed of your coins, end up with tainted coins (and possibly end up with very awkward conversations with law enforcement).

I was kinda enjoying the bubble when it was just techy entrants playing with toy money. Now, the way it's all shot up, with talk of normal punters remortgaging to enter, I am pretty alarmed. It's clearly a comparable type bubble to housing.

Clearly if it continues up there will be a new (fairly randomly chosen) bunch of undeserving rich people. Many of the arguments presented here for disliking those who speculate in housing also apply: especially those who've taken leveraged bets (Which soon may add systemic risk to the real financial system). Moreover POW is clearly a disaster for the environment...

If we'd had a slow rise, with a switchover to POS midway, with some sensible regulation - I'd not have a principled objection. But this ramp doesn't look like it'll end well. So I feel very ambivalent about my undeserved gains. I also am very aware that there's a high chance they may go to zero - but I never invested much: reportedly unlike some of the recent entrants.

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25 minutes ago, wsn03 said:

I don’t want to post this on the Bubbly Bitcoin Thread, because reading through that it seems to be turning into the Bitcoin Supporters Club thread.

I’m writing this in its own thread, because the Bitcoin thread seems to be full of the same propaganda that I come on this forum to avoid that lives on the outside world, usually in support of the housing market. And I’m struggling to see the difference. Both seem to be rising on a cloud supported by sod all, but with the supporters telling you it can and will go on forever. So I have questions, can anyone help?

The bits I’m lost on that defy the “logic”:

  1. Value?

    Fiat money represents purchasing power in a given country, that was used to represent a share of gold. When it stopped representing gold it started to become worthless in real terms it continued to be supported by governments and the system to ensure it is still given a perceived value – bit like houses are. The US Dollar is the biggest sham, it is totally worthless, but as long as it is backed by the world’s most powerful country (USA), and hoarded by the worlds soon to be most powerful country (China), it will have purchasing power and therefore perceived value.

     

    Bitcoin is a currency, that seems to be formed on a computer, by some bloke who hasn’t even been properly identified from what I can tell. It is not backed by any government, and seemingly isn’t being used much for the purchase of anything in most countries (aside from a few exceptions). Unless I’m wrong, isn’t it just a number on a computer? It’s not backed or representative of any country. It doesn’t have any physical presence – its just an algorithm right? Could I create a spreadsheet of numbers and call it xlscoin, and say there are only 20 million of these numbers, but you can buy them off me – is this any different, especially if I limit the supply? If you all went crazy over it wouldn’t it grow in value? Like my house has, even though no way is it really worth the £550,000 its been “valued” at.

     

     

  2. Support?

    The housing market is fully propped up and supported by the system, institutions and the government, as most of the population has a vested interest. When it falters governments will lose power.

    I believe it won’t burst as a bubble overnight, it will slowly deflate relatively speaking over a long period of time delayed by every desperate and vested interest to keep it high and mighty. By the way I believe in its demise, but I believe it will be slower and less pronounced than it deserves.

     

    Bitcoin is an electronic currency, shrouded in mystery, which is, as far as I can tell, just like the “.dot com” bubble was – it seems to be propped up in value by nothing more than speculation. Like the dot.com bubble, the supporters argue it will take over the world etc. Something like it possibly will one day, but it will be issued and controlled by the people with the real power, the governments and institutions. When the current bitcoin bubble goes pop, it will be instant and rapid. It has a minority of supporters, and is not under the control of any government, therefore I doubt they will do anything to stop it from collapsing. The fact that its purpose is to replace government controlled currencies should shout alarm bells to all its investors everywhere, shouldn’t it?

     

     

  3. It’s very complicated

    I work in IT, I earn my living in IT. I can configure SAP. I can map data migrations. I’m no techie, but I am fairly exposed to the technical world. Despite this, I’m lost on Bitcoin, and I have tried to understand it – ok not too much effort went into that, but a little bit did.

     

    The bitcoin fan club argue that the whole world is going to adopt it. Really? Money is super simple, the only thing more simple is bartering. Money is so simple it works for the masses, because the masses are simple (me included). Because of that the system is able to hide the fact that money no longer has the value that people think it does – again, just like houses.

     

    Bitcoin is so complicated I can’t actually figure out where I would start if I was to buy into it.

    Here is a quote from a post on this forum in the bubbly bitcoin thread:

     

    “ Miners are the minority of nodes in decentralization. If they follow a set of rules that the majority of nodes reject then the majority will orphan the miners by making a new POW algorithm. And bitcoin carries on. There are 10's of thousands of GPUs just waiting to mine bitcoin. They would step in immediately.”

     

    Then add words like FORK and BLOCKCHAIN…and this is going to be adopted by the masses? Really?

     

     

I conclude and I question

Houses are really simple. It’s very easy to fool people into thinking that they are worth a fortune because people need to live in them. And people think estate agents are “property experts”, and the government helps to prop up the lie… its incredible but an easy con.

FIAT currency, same as, easy to use and you can fool people because the government said so etc etc.

 

BITCOIN is a brilliant idea that has gone way out of control. A rationally thought out trading alternative that has become a frenzied bubble for techies. What could possibly go wrong?

 

Is it me? Am I missing something? Am I being really thick here? Or is this another .dot com bubble waiting to burst? Has the wagon got so heavy that the brake is no longer working? Did the clever money jump off it already?

 

Please, if you are blinded by the propaganda or have a vested interest, don’t sprout it here. I just want something that I come on HPC for, some logical informed reasoning, without bias, forethought or reason.

 

Thanks

yep that forum has turned in to a pseudo HPI forever thread, what it does show is the mindset of humans on the way up it`s cant crash or deviate from an upward trend. BTL HPI anyone. a bit like 2008 no one saw it coming. 

Nothing that is not expected really that is the mindset of most people when they think they are winning. Gambling that`s all it is. 

The big winners have already cashed out. i do wish i had 50,000 BTC bought for $500 in 2010 though :lol: 

 

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The idea that the world's govts and central banks will sit around and let a handful of dotcom hustlers, vulture capitalists and libertarian cranks corner the market in digital money creation is so fantastically funny it doesn't warrant serious consideration.

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If people can see the bubble...they never will.

As it is for houses, it is for other mega bubbles.

On the up side you can buy in at any time and turn a profit.

On the down side...

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1 minute ago, crooksook said:

I believe that bitcoin (and the other various tokens) are definitely not appropriate for non-techy entrants.

so that`s 95% of the population then. Techies are smart but also very stupid at the same time. blinded by their own delusions and point of view. when the only point of view that matters is the mass view of the public. which is very different. And that`s the one you need to watch. 

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5 minutes ago, longgone said:

yep that forum has turned in to a pseudo HPI forever thread, what it does show is the mindset of humans on the way up it`s cant crash or deviate from an upward trend. BTL HPI anyone. a bit like 2008 no one saw it coming. 

Nothing that is not expected really that is the mindset of most people when they think they are winning. Gambling that`s all it is. 

The big winners have already cashed out. i do wish i had 50,000 BTC bought for $500 in 2010 though :lol: 

 

Surely the winning answer!!! I salute you Sir!

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5 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The idea that the world's govts and central banks will sit around and let a handful of dotcom hustlers, vulture capitalists and libertarian cranks corner the market in digital money creation is so fantastically funny it doesn't warrant serious consideration.

Oh crap...i just gave out first prize too quickly, yours is a brilliant post, and made me laugh too. Thank God im not alone then!

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12 minutes ago, doomed said:

To OP the answers you seek are out there so stop being lazy and go find them, or continue to shout at the moon.

Ok thanks for that helpful and informative reply. 

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20 minutes ago, Locke said:

 

3) Regulation is decentralised

I can hear the phone call, 80yo granny goes to buy some bread and milk gets to the shop  and the computer says no. 

phones the police up and they says sorry we can`t help your money is decentralised now there is no bank anymore sorry. FU

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6 minutes ago, longgone said:

so that`s 95% of the population then. Techies are smart but also very stupid at the same time. blinded by their own delusions and point of view. when the only point of view that matters is the mass view of the public. which is very different. And that`s the one you need to watch. 

Thats kind of what i was thinking!

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4 minutes ago, longgone said:

I can hear the phone call, 80yo granny goes to buy some bread and milk gets to the shop  and the computer says no. 

phones the police up and they says sorry we can`t help your money is decentralised now there is no bank anymore sorry. FU

The problem is, if it's the computer at the bank that says no, I don't see the police bursting through that door and getting your money back for you.

Whereas with decentralized currency, one computer saying no does not outweigh thousands of others saying yes.

Lack of central authority means much greater responsibilities for your action, yes, but the risk of a choke-up at the single point of failure (like in your example) is removed.

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30 minutes ago, azal777 said:

Found this a good read. Definitely something off with this bitcoin thing, not sure of its accuracy personally but I do sense a shift in fiat money going forward.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2017-12-10-evidence-points-to-bitcoin-being-an-nsa-psyop-roll-out-one-world-digital-currency.html

Good article, a bit conspiracy theory but all possible. 

Again, it points to the collapse of bitcoin to be replaced by a government controlled equivalent. Thats what i would expect!

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32 minutes ago, b_real said:

I concur with your post 100%... it's all completely lost on me too, and I've got a PhD in data analytics. I do think the current FIAT system has an expiry date, but it's replacement has got to be something more user friendly / transparent than bitcoin in it's current form. Just my two cents, bits, or iotas, or whatever ;)

I rest my case.

Would you like to join me, im shouting at the moon at the moment apparently (my new life coach Doomed pointed that out)

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2 minutes ago, kibuc said:

The problem is, if it's the computer at the bank that says no, I don't see the police bursting through that door and getting your money back for you.

Whereas with decentralized currency, one computer saying no does not outweigh thousands of others saying yes.

Lack of central authority means much greater responsibilities for your action, yes, but the risk of a choke-up at the single point of failure (like in your example) is removed.

IT will be hacked, who ever says it won`t is a moron. What about the social aspect of decentralised banking. The drug dealers people traffickers fraudsters and other nutters don`t go away with crypto. if anything they will increase.  

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1 minute ago, wsn03 said:

Good article, a bit conspiracy theory but all possible. 

Again, it points to the collapse of bitcoin to be replaced by a government controlled equivalent. Thats what i would expect!

I'm not sure governments have the means to stop a distributed cryptocurrency altogether: witness the continued existence of the dark web. But they could certainly legislate to make participation difficult or illegal.

There's also a huge amount of innovation in the space at present: if they govt had started bitcoin (which I don't believe), it's certainly spun far out of their control already.

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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