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And expecting to rasie another 0.75% next year.

The fun starts for the BoE, public sector spend and the UK banks now.

If only the UK had 10 years to reduce the banks lending , lower house prices, and gets its welfare spending under control ...

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1 hour ago, LittlePig said:

Indeed. Good job sterling is running strong to support our import driven lifestyle.

Oh wait.

 

5a31b5de08d2d_download(3).thumb.png.315feb4166a3be17b98f27a5ceaf5c12.png

 

5a31a919bcbff_download(1).thumb.png.5d9a4367eb0e3d266daf2a582af2636c.png

Current rate versus inflated counter trend rate at time of Brexit vote = -10%

Current rate versus on trend rate at time of Brexit vote = +1%

Current rate versus bottom of prior established down trend during which Brexit vote took place = +11%

We have a clear forecast for the future currency trend in which Brexit deliberations are not a material medium to long term factor. 

 

Edited by Fence

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50 minutes ago, Fence said:

"Two Fed presidents voted against the increase — Charles Evans of Chicago and Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis".

Chicago, what a surprise.

Kashkari is yet another aluminus of Goldman Sachs. Hank Paulson brought him into the Treasury in 2008 just after the meltdown started. Got a grubby finger in every conceivable pie.

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4 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Kashkari is yet another aluminus of Goldman Sachs. Hank Paulson brought him into the Treasury in 2008 just after the meltdown started. Got a grubby finger in every conceivable pie.

Ta.  Understood why Chicago but not Minnie.

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6 hours ago, Fence said:

 

 

5a31b5de08d2d_download(3).thumb.png.315feb4166a3be17b98f27a5ceaf5c12.png

 

5a31a919bcbff_download(1).thumb.png.5d9a4367eb0e3d266daf2a582af2636c.png

Current rate versus inflated counter trend rate at time of Brexit vote = -10%

Current rate versus on trend rate at time of Brexit vote = +1%

Current rate versus bottom of prior established down trend during which Brexit vote took place = +11%

We have a clear forecast for the future currency trend in which Brexit deliberations are not a material medium to long term factor. 

 

Sorry can you just summarize whether you expecting sterling to drop or rise in medium-long term ?

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2 hours ago, suresh786 said:

Sorry can you just summarize whether you expecting sterling to drop or rise in medium-long term ?

Put it another way why would it strengthen?

In what way is the UK economy getting stronger?

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41 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

Base IR today should be at least 5%.

Whether that bankrupts millions of people is neither here nor there, as Carnage has a responsibility to keep inflation in check............lol.

FTFY: "as Carnage has a responsibility to keep wage inflation in check".  We can't have productive members of the economy getting too big for their boots, can we?  Not while rentiers and banksters still need more yachts.

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14 minutes ago, Maynardgravy said:

:lol:

Bonum!

 

Caesar aderat forte, Brutus aderam. Caesar sic in omnibus, Brutus sic intram

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11 hours ago, suresh786 said:

Sorry can you just summarize whether you expecting sterling to drop or rise in medium-long term ?

Depends on the definition of those terms.  A lame but true answer.  As is "it will change when it will change".  I reckon things don't work like you can put stuff in a diary.  Anyone doing that without a bogoff caveat is selling the old snake oil.  You have to constantly eyeball the charts.  Yeh, it's a fullish time job so one should cut one's cloth to fit.

But we are currently in an uptrend with little sign of a major change (although a pullback seems underway).  However, as has been seen before, these rallies have been against a long term decline.  I play the trend until I see it change.  I let the short, intermediate, and long terms sort themselves out.

Point is, in the big picture, trying to pin Brexit and other such things on seismic currency movements are stories which should stay in the nursery.  Best to give one's money to a professional money nob if one wants to trot out such stuff as that way one win wins.

PS.  Sorry about the "ones" malarkey.  Me not going posh but don't want people to think I mean them personally like.

Edited by Fence

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8 hours ago, frederico said:

Put it another way why would it strengthen?

In what way is the UK economy getting stronger?

Sorry, dunno.  Charts show the score, the rest is yappidy yap.  Often things going down go too far (people get the vapours) so things pull back a bit.  That is, they bounce.  I used to trade drastic stock falls in the old days on that basis.  Called trading the bounce. Think of a ball bouncing down some stairs.

Edited by Fence

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1 hour ago, Fence said:

As long as we all remember rates are only going up so they can come down again when things get really bad again, as they prob will, soonish.

Unless they stagflate...?

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in otherwords,   unless the government of the uk wish to see the pound tank some more against its competitor currencies they will have no choice that to follow the leader and raise rates with inflation over 2% above base rate it actually a disgrace they have not allready, a blatent money grab from the savers to the indebted. everything runs in cycles and the 20 years of low rates and little return for savers has to come to an end now. and then you will see your house price crash.

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10 hours ago, jimmy2x3 said:

in otherwords,   unless the government of the uk wish to see the pound tank some more against its competitor currencies they will have no choice that to follow the leader and raise rates with inflation over 2% above base rate it actually a disgrace they have not allready, a blatent money grab from the savers to the indebted. everything runs in cycles and the 20 years of low rates and little return for savers has to come to an end now. and then you will see your house price crash.

Trouble with high rates is ya can't flash your wodges no more.  And nothing quite like flashing a wodge or two to get a deal done.  Like to see Prof manage that with his USB stick.

Edited by Fence

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25 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

I have got the impression that the Government doesn't really care if the pound tanks and there is inflation which affects normal people, we are expected to just manage through it. All that matters it that big business and the Governments vested interest groups are able to continue being gifted lots of free money and help. They don't seem to even pretend to run the country for the people anymore, we basically have government run for the interests of big business.

Not sure.

If the pound falls then the risk premium of holding sterling assets goes up.

There's no such thing as a free lunch.

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  • 406 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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