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Fairyland

London price falls offset by sharp rise in North East and West Midlands - Rightmove

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The Guardian: Rightmove predicts 1% rise in UK house prices in 2018

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Rightmove is predicting that house prices across England and Wales will rise by 1% in 2018, but there will be a further decline in London. 

In its annual report on the market, the property website predicts that 2% price falls in the capital will be more than offset by an increase in the value of small and medium-priced homes around the country. 

Rightmove said the average asking price for an English or Welsh home stands at £302,865 – a 2.6% fall on November, but 1.2% higher than a year ago.

A 1% average increase would represent the lowest annual increase since the 0.8% rise recorded in 2011, it said.

"London -1.8%, North East and Midlands + 4.3%". How are Londoners/London investors reacting to this news?

Edited by Fairyland

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Since in my area you need a London job and a London house to sell so that you can afford a nice house.  I expect the falls to go Nationwide shortly.

At present London is multiple times more expensive than many areas so it can drop a distance before the differential.drahs down the others 

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3 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

Since in my area you need a London job and a London house to sell so that you can afford a nice house.  I expect the falls to go Nationwide shortly.

At present London is multiple times more expensive than many areas so it can drop a distance before the differential.drahs down the others 

That's how I am hoping it will pan out.  With low wages, falling real employment and rising transport costs its hard to see many areas rising significantly as the London/South East bubble deflates.

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Delusion collapsing in South, yet to reach North.

The ripples have only just spread across London itself to outer London. The shock wave is coming.

Edited by Maynardgravy

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I don't know what to make of it tbh, there's no shortage of credit available by the sound of it: my wife and I have just had a mortgage consultation (the big one) and the bank want to loan us more than 300k :o

We're doing okay but not exactly on mega bucks, and I've just started a new job.

We're prepared for everything to go south, just sick of renting, and the cost of the place is much less than the banks want to give us.

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I would strongly recommend looking for the number of transaction in the NE.

From the places I track, the number of sales are still falling.

 

 

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43 minutes ago, Maynardgravy said:

Delusion collapsing in South, yet to reach North.

The ripples have only just spread across London itself to outer London. The shock wave is coming.

 

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And Edinburgh is quite bubbly right now. Its panning out exactly like 2008.

Not to say what comes next - but there are very close parallels with this general 'build up'.

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1 hour ago, Maynardgravy said:

Delusion collapsing in South, yet to reach North.

The ripples have only just spread across London itself to outer London. The shock wave is coming.

Now seeing stagnation and reductions (5-10%) in the burbs SW of London. What's significant is that this is happening with record employment and record low mortgage rates, surely prices should be skyrocketing each year, Brexit or not?

It's the classic buyers looking for value ripple scenario (thanks internet), happens all over the World in a property bubble. Recession will hit, guaranteed, the banks are in a stronger position this time around but the individual isn't, and very few props available to stimulate growth in the aftermath compared to 2008 too. And don't think foreign property investors and BTL will save the crash like they did in the last crisis either.

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Debt is debt.....low interest or no interest..... £500k over twenty five years ie: 300 months is £1666 pm interest free in anyone's money.....inflation or not.;)

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4 minutes ago, winkie said:

Debt is debt.....low interest or no interest..... £500k over twenty five years ie: 300 months is £1666 pm interest free in anyone's money.....inflation or not.;)

Good point winkie and one worth repeating.  That's a lot of money each month before you think about the interest rates.

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1 hour ago, dougless said:

Good point winkie and one worth repeating.  That's a lot of money each month before you think about the interest rates.

I like a quote I saw on here I think.

When someone gives you rates will never go up/never be a property crash angle.

"I only have to be right once, you have to be right every month for 25 years".

Or something like that 

Just remember all the shit that's hit the fan in the last 25 years.

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1 hour ago, dougless said:

Good point winkie and one worth repeating.  That's a lot of money each month before you think about the interest rates.

Quite.....I think many think they have secured the loan the rest will be easy, but they have commited themselves to many years of work and saving.......repaying debt is another form of saving.;)

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The way I see it it's a fat tail type scenario, where places like the North East will fall last and fall hard again, even from a lower base. 

From what I can tell looking at local market very little stuff is selling, some boomers still live in denial, BTL are trying to sell but most are still riding the wave of 10s of thousands of students to let them flats to. 

 

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1 hour ago, stuckmojo said:

The way I see it it's a fat tail type scenario, where places like the North East will fall last and fall hard again, even from a lower base. 

From what I can tell looking at local market very little stuff is selling, some boomers still live in denial, BTL are trying to sell but most are still riding the wave of 10s of thousands of students to let them flats to. 

 

Properties are sitting on rightmove a lot longer than previously in the areas I track (London areas) and I've seen a lot go under offer then come back on the market. Some sell quite quickly but I don't know for sure what the pattern is. It could be that high end stuff near good school is still selling well because people with some money (and/or a previously smaller place in London) are just prepared to bite the bullet to get their kids into a "decent" school, but properties outside good catchment areas now really need to compete on price (as in, drop the price). That's just a theory, not sure if it is correct.

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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