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houseface2000

Nadeem Walayat Clueless

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So I fess up, I've been a fan of Walayat since he got he housing forecast spot on back in 2013... until now that is! He said in February 2017 he expected 10% rises to continue year on year beyond 2018 BUT in July 2017 he proclaimed he can see prices falls ahead and trouble for the market (laughably late imo) he's now gone silent despite 6 months promises of a housing market update and appears completely clueless. I feel a fool for holding him in such high esteem. Any thoughts on this guys knowledge/predictions ??

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6 hours ago, houseface2000 said:

So I fess up, I've been a fan of Walayat since he got he housing forecast spot on back in 2013... until now that is! He said in February 2017 he expected 10% rises to continue year on year beyond 2018 BUT in July 2017 he proclaimed he can see prices falls ahead and trouble for the market (laughably late imo) he's now gone silent despite 6 months promises of a housing market update and appears completely clueless. I feel a fool for holding him in such high esteem. Any thoughts on this guys knowledge/predictions ??

I used to follow him free on the Market Oracle site, but gave it up over a year ago. I think he just got lucky with his predictions for a number of years and now the market has turned he's keeping below the parapet.

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Wataloon's just another grubby shyster trying to pass off opinion as research; wishful thinking as science. No better or worse than the 1001 talking heads that pop up on CNBC every day of the week. They're all promoting something, but why? Wouldn't they be better off trading inside on the information than diluting those potential gains among the great unwashed?

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10 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Wataloon's just another grubby shyster trying to pass off opinion as research; wishful thinking as science. No better or worse than the 1001 talking heads that pop up on CNBC every day of the week. They're all promoting something, but why? Wouldn't they be better off trading inside on the information than diluting those potential gains among the great unwashed?

Yeah tbh I always questioned is motive for sharing his supposed insight. But I think it's just ego with him, he wants n audience. He also never ever admits when he get it wrong.

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7 hours ago, houseface2000 said:

So I fess up, I've been a fan of Walayat since he got he housing forecast spot on back in 2013... until now that is! He said in February 2017 he expected 10% rises to continue year on year beyond 2018 BUT in July 2017 he proclaimed he can see prices falls ahead and trouble for the market (laughably late imo) he's now gone silent despite 6 months promises of a housing market update and appears completely clueless. I feel a fool for holding him in such high esteem. Any thoughts on this guys knowledge/predictions ??

 

I found this guy in about 2008 when I was paying a lot of attention to the GFC. He was putting out a lot of stuff, much of it turned out to be bad, and I am pretty sure he removed some of his stuff from that time. He had an e-book out, but it had a couple of updates, and I am convinced he quietly removed/changed a bunch of bad predictions. He did not keep the older versions available. I was convinced enough though that I spent ages looking through old hard drives trying to find a copy of the original version of the e-book. Never found it though.

Is he still touting the few quid he made from the 1987 crash as proof of his ability?

I had already stopped following by the time you mention so cannot speak to recently. I am guessing though that you have not seen any audited trading account statements showing profits over a decent period. It was clear to me in 2008-2011 sort of period that he is just another random with a newsletter. He got the bull market turn of 2009 correct, but so what. There are plenty of misses in his history such that you cannot place any faith. It is coin toss stuff. I used to read many of these random economics/trading prediction news letters and websites including Mish and ZH. Now I do not read any. Mish had plenty of prediction misses including calling the top of the S&P at both 1016 and 1103 I believe. 10% US unemployment to 2020. Im sure there was more. To be fair I read some theory stuff from him that I have maintained to this day, but gold standard stuff and ultra light regs is nonsense.

If I happen to randomly find myself at any of these sorts of places, I might skim, but very much with the mind that with all these guys, if their stuff was useful enough to be worth following regularly, they would be far too busy and wealthy to bother trying to make advertising bucks on a blog.

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I got his details from this site as he used to be touted on the homepage with his predictions of falls back in 2007 odd! I think he appealed as he was going against the grain he was also the only one to come out and lay cards on the table with a solid prediction 

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1 hour ago, AdamoMucci said:

 

I found this guy in about 2008 when I was paying a lot of attention to the GFC. He was putting out a lot of stuff, much of it turned out to be bad, and I am pretty sure he removed some of his stuff from that time. He had an e-book out, but it had a couple of updates, and I am convinced he quietly removed/changed a bunch of bad predictions. He did not keep the older versions available. I was convinced enough though that I spent ages looking through old hard drives trying to find a copy of the original version of the e-book. Never found it though.

Is he still touting the few quid he made from the 1987 crash as proof of his ability?

I had already stopped following by the time you mention so cannot speak to recently. I am guessing though that you have not seen any audited trading account statements showing profits over a decent period. It was clear to me in 2008-2011 sort of period that he is just another random with a newsletter. He got the bull market turn of 2009 correct, but so what. There are plenty of misses in his history such that you cannot place any faith. It is coin toss stuff. I used to read many of these random economics/trading prediction news letters and websites including Mish and ZH. Now I do not read any. Mish had plenty of prediction misses including calling the top of the S&P at both 1016 and 1103 I believe. 10% US unemployment to 2020. Im sure there was more. To be fair I read some theory stuff from him that I have maintained to this day, but gold standard stuff and ultra light regs is nonsense.

If I happen to randomly find myself at any of these sorts of places, I might skim, but very much with the mind that with all these guys, if their stuff was useful enough to be worth following regularly, they would be far too busy and wealthy to bother trying to make advertising bucks on a blog.

Yeah just read an old post from Nov 2013 saying rates will be 4.5% by the end of 2014 and to get out of bit coin. Very wrong

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I don't follow him religiously, but I do happen to check in with his stuff from time to time.  It seems he called the monster stock rally and Trump and Brexit, which is something.  At the end of the day, nobody can predict the future, but many individuals/outfits/whatever do try to do just that, and charge a hefty premium for it, despite it being pretty much impossible in most cases.

His stuff is free.  I would say, to have a go at somebody for not being able to consistently predict the future, for free, is somewhat churlish. 

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6 hours ago, Fletcher said:

I don't follow him religiously, but I do happen to check in with his stuff from time to time.  It seems he called the monster stock rally and Trump and Brexit, which is something.  At the end of the day, nobody can predict the future, but many individuals/outfits/whatever do try to do just that, and charge a hefty premium for it, despite it being pretty much impossible in most cases.

His stuff is free.  I would say, to have a go at somebody for not being able to consistently predict the future, for free, is somewhat churlish. 

I'm more annoyed he incoraged someone not to sit on the fence and buy in Feb 2017 in his comments section. Buy or yourll miss the boat etc 

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16 hours ago, Fletcher said:

His stuff is free.  I would say, to have a go at somebody for not being able to consistently predict the future, for free, is somewhat churlish. 

 

Well what I am saying is it is not even worth the time to read it.

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On 08/12/2017 at 3:51 AM, Fletcher said:

I don't follow him religiously, but I do happen to check in with his stuff from time to time.  It seems he called the monster stock rally and Trump and Brexit, which is something.  At the end of the day, nobody can predict the future, but many individuals/outfits/whatever do try to do just that, and charge a hefty premium for it, despite it being pretty much impossible in most cases.

His stuff is free.  I would say, to have a go at somebody for not being able to consistently predict the future, for free, is somewhat churlish. 

I feel the same, he was saying buy shares when there was a lot of negative sentiment rolling around most websites. Now I've stopped reading The Market Oracle regularly and instead read a lot on Seeking Alpha. There are a couple of authors there I follow, one is Roger Nusbaum (because he's a mate, not because he's particularly insightful), Avi Gilbert (entertaining and quite accurate), and Chuck Carnevale (good research), and there are good reads on most days by other authors. 

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His latest forecast conclusion. Note he doesn't explain why London has been falling the last 3 years and is spreading out.

"The bottom line is Britain's over crowding ratio insures that no matter what arguments are put forward by academics that most people cannot afford to buy anymore so unsustainable house price rises must fall, instead the population growth fundamentals are such that their arguments just do not matter, the only thing that can effect this fundamental trend is if the UK literally doubles the number of houses built each year towards 400k, and even then it would probably not result in falling UK house prices but tend to index house prices to inflation. But of course that is not going to happen, the UK is not going to build anywhere near 300,000 homes per year let alone 400k, as the reality is that for most years UK house building will be short by as much as 100,000 completed new builds which will act to compound housing market demand vs supply pressures and thus exert further upward pressure on house prices with each passing year.

So this analysis continues to confirm that UK house prices on average will continue to rise for many more years. Until we start to see the over crowding ratio decline. Otherwise it acts like a coiled spring primed to yank house prices into their next strong bull market which I am sure will leave the clueless mainstream media journalists scratching their heads as to why house prices are rising when the academics say they 'should' be falling. Where negative volatility in house prices in any given year is just going to prove to be temporary as the underlying fundamentals reassert themselves as we witnessed in the aftermath of the 2008-2011 bear market as house prices proceeded to rise a wall of worry of why they would not rise due to a decade of stagnating wages when my housing crisis ratio clearly illustrates why they would rise as my above graph at the time warned to expect.

Perhaps when Britain actually does manage to LEAVE the EU and gets a grip on net migration then we will start to see a fundamental change in a trend that has been in motion for some 30 years, until then Britain's house building fundamentals are firmly for rising house prices."

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3 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

Perhaps when Britain actually does manage to LEAVE the EU and gets a grip on net migration then we will start to see a fundamental change in a trend that has been in motion for some 30 years, until then Britain's house building fundamentals are firmly for rising house prices."

The government doesn't want that. Rising immigration = GDP (not per capita, obviously) and that's all they care about. They'll never get a grip on it until absolutely forced to, and I don't see where that pressure is going to come from.

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4 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

Perhaps when Britain actually does manage to LEAVE the EU and gets a grip on net migration then we will start to see a fundamental change in a trend that has been in motion for some 30 years, until then Britain's house building fundamentals are firmly for rising house prices."

Net migration from the EU was estimated to be around 57,000 last year. Immigration from the rest of the world is entirely at the discretion of the UK govt.

Quote

Continued uncertainty about the UK’s place in the EU was reflected in the latest net migration statistics, with EU net migration declining by 70% since the referendum and at the lowest level since 2009, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said today.

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are the last net migration statistics to be released before March 29, the UK’s scheduled departure date from the EU. They show:

  • Negative (-15,000) net migration by people from the EU8 countries that joined the EU in 2004 (Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia). Note: Margins of error mean that this is not statistically different from zero.
  • Net migration levels from both the “old” EU-14 member states and Romania and Bulgaria – which joined in 2007 – have also fallen considerably from pre-referendum levels.
  • National Insurance Number (NINo) allocations to EU nationals fell by 33% from 2016 to 2018, from 626,000 to 419,000.

By contrast, the data show gradually rising levels of net migration from non-EU countries – reaching the highest levels since 2004. This is due to higher levels of work- and study-related migration.

It's out of control because the Tory boys want it to be.

 

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3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

It's out of control because the Tory boys want it to be.

You can buy an entire steel industry for the price of a few detached houses in Richmond !

House prices will only get real once investments must be directed into productive industries (not property speculation) by law.

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I have to say that when Nadeem first came out with his forecast for massive rising prices in 2010 or whenever it was now I was very annoyed and thought this is complete bull. It turned out to be right and I should have bought in 2009 when I nearly did.

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I haven't read anything from Walayat in a while.

 

I think he probably made a prediction that house prices would go up in 2013 or 14, which had proved to be correct in most places.

 

But what about his other predictions how are they doing? (I genuinely have no clue)

 

Like you I can't believe house prices can continue to rise, but I have been proven wrong many times.

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, reddog said:

I haven't read anything from Walayat in a while.

 

I think he probably made a prediction that house prices would go up in 2013 or 14, which had proved to be correct in most places.

 

But what about his other predictions how are they doing? (I genuinely have no clue)

 

Like you I can't believe house prices can continue to rise, but I have been proven wrong many times.

 

 

UK house prices continue to rise because the Tories continue to subsidise the cost of home ownership, as they have infamously since 2010.

Could they or their successors hold up the market for another decade? Highly implausible. The sums involved make the extravagance of HS2 look like an impulse purchase.

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If Labour get in.... There's no limit to the sums.

Having looked at the latest LR numbers I think he could be right. Values (SE) are going up again. There was big a fall in March, probably as that was when we were supposed to be leaving the EU. Not many buyers. People waiting. After that was pushed back the rises came back.

On immigration, how many times have the government said they will bring it under 10's of thousands and failed miserably? I don't see them doing it. Outside EU immigration has many hoops to jump through but people still coming in. Of course these are the ones we know about. We don't count them in and out. There will be illegals all over the place, no doubt crammed into a let from a dodgy foriegn landlord.

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4 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

f Labour get in.... There's no limit to the sums.

The sums are limited even for Labour. But the point is moot as the focus will be primarily on social housing, relieving demand pressure in the private sector.

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  • 406 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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