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Parkwell

Is it time for another riot?

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The government learnt nothing from the 2011 riots. Continuing on a path of increasing inequality, stagnant wages, and few rewards for working hard. Millennials are giving up on the idea of ever owning a home. Most people have little to no savings and/or are in debt.

As more people feel they have nothing to lose and nothing to gain, what will be the long term effect?

What economic conditions should we expect to produce civil unrest and is it likely to happen?

 

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5 minutes ago, Parkwell said:

The government learnt nothing from the 2011 riots. Continuing on a path of increasing inequality, stagnant wages, and few rewards for working hard. Millennials are giving up on the idea of ever owning a home. Most people have little to no savings and/or are in debt.

As more people feel they have nothing to lose and nothing to gain, what will be the long term effect?

What economic conditions should we expect to produce civil unrest and is it likely to happen?

 

Obviously NIreland has 2 tribes and there were tribal issues always. The state was to be a "Protestant State for a Protestant People".

But it was unfairness in housing allocation (Generally owned by Unionists who controlled the Local government back then) that led to the emergence of the NIreland Civil Rights movement. A sit-in when a young  Protestant secretary was given a house preferentially before Catholic families who needed a home led to things kicking off. The police were on the side of the Unionists.

Then came the civil-war Troubles and the Irish Border came into it later.

Housing.

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What were the causes of the 2011 riot...?  Nothing us HPCers would identify with?  Just a load of deadbeats going out on the rob.

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1 hour ago, Wayward said:

What were the causes of the 2011 riot...?  Nothing us HPCers would identify with?  Just a load of deadbeats going out on the rob.

Loads of people being crammed into London like sardines ready to kick off?

The "whats the point" culture where working hard getting a job and buying a house is replaced with a what you are given is what you will get.

Forcing immigrants on top of immigrants to keep the credit Ponzi going so they tool up to deal with the third world violence.

etc etc

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Loads of people being crammed into London like sardines ready to kick off?

The "whats the point" culture where working hard getting a job and buying a house is replaced with a what you are given is what you will get.

Forcing immigrants on top of immigrants to keep the credit Ponzi going so they tool up to deal with the third world violence.

etc etc

 

 

Agreed, the only thing that surprised me about August 2011 is that some people seemed surprised it happened.

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1 hour ago, Fromage Frais said:

Loads of people being crammed into London like sardines ready to kick off?

The "whats the point" culture where working hard getting a job and buying a house is replaced with a what you are given is what you will get.

Forcing immigrants on top of immigrants to keep the credit Ponzi going so they tool up to deal with the third world violence.

etc etc

 

 

Well maybe but I don't know that there is any evidence that the rioters were poorly housed...I expect most adequately housed by the state but wanted some new trainers.

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I'd say nailed on there will be major riots in several cities anytime within the next couple of years. I wouldn't try analyse it in terms of social welfare cuts, unstable employment, rising rents, unaffordable housing... The protagonists unlikely to be even aware or think about social or economic factors. Rather I am a firm believer in Jungian collective consciousness in the movement of zeitgeist, social trends, advertising, markets. 

The recent riots were a picnic compared to some of those that spread across the UK in the late seventees and early eightees. That's where I feel we are heading. In recent months I have been completing work out east and that area of London is getting seriously edgy at night between Dalston to Stratford. The gangs of youths kicking off without any police in sight happens regularly yet I see very little appearing in the local news or London papers. Yet I am seeing some pretty viscous stuff every other day (like a 30-40 strong brawl between local youths in a McDonalds car park at the top end of Hackney, old fella barging over a woman's kid when they wouldn't cede way on the pavement, cell phone thefts on scooters - three times I've seen that within a few yards of my vehicle). It's in the air, for sure.

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Interesting note from history, I think I'm right in saying that the Romans needed to have a huge and burdensome welfare state in place to keep the plebs from rioting, along with an ultra wealthy elite, whilst the middle classes were taxed the hardest... all sounds strangely familiar.

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11 minutes ago, nome said:

Interesting note from history, I think I'm right in saying that the Romans needed to have a huge and burdensome welfare state in place to keep the plebs from rioting, along with an ultra wealthy elite, whilst the middle classes were taxed the hardest... all sounds strangely familiar.

Except the Romans paid to keep the Vandals out. We do the opposite.

London's gone - one can argue the benefits or not, but no one was asked, but it's no longer an English city. It must be perplexing for any tourist who sees the house of commons or the Royals on TV and then come to London. I do wonder how the Royal family will maintain any credibility in what will become a predominantly non-white capital.  Then again, as a republican I'll find that part a little amusing.

The riots will probably be religious - Islam v all the rest.

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Well, I was only young during the 70's and 80's riots but I remember sitting at home with my parents, watching the news for weeks at a time  when riots flared, my parents fretting over the burning and looting creeping closer and closer to our our area of surrey, outside London. Most people think it was just a couple of major riots around 79 and the big one in 1981 at Brixton and Toxteth, with Morrissey singing "Panic!" around the time all across the airwaves. There were small riots that happened regularly and built up to a couple of huge ones, periodically. It wasn't one particular thing triggering it, just a general malaise and nihilism.  It was terrifying as it crept everywhere. We saw areas burning on the news, no so far away, just two streets away from us, some Einstein decided to put through the windscreens on every car along the road. In a leafy part of Surrey. There was a lot of just random, unrelated vandalism everywhere. It wasn't contained and quickly over like the recent ones around London.

The thing that's changed is the foreboding sense of economic and social nihilism now in many city areas that feels closer to those big riots a few decades ago. That's a very different scenario to the causes of the recent riots. Still, I'll leave it there before I start sounding like a wild montana mountain man heading to the mountains with tinned food and shotguns. Crime and social trends are things I am following closely at the moment, together with Bonds, sterling and crypto currency trends (i.e., since crypto currency movements seem to be building enough momentum to trigger a fiat currency run at the margins). One of those is going to go bang at some point - but social cohesion could still be the black swan.

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1 hour ago, frankvw said:

Well, I was only young during the 70's and 80's riots but I remember sitting at home with my parents, watching the news for weeks at a time  when riots flared, my parents fretting over the burning and looting creeping closer and closer to our our area of surrey, outside London. Most people think it was just a couple of major riots around 79 and the big one in 1981 at Brixton and Toxteth, with Morrissey singing "Panic!" around the time all across the airwaves. There were small riots that happened regularly and built up to a couple of huge ones, periodically. It wasn't one particular thing triggering it, just a general malaise and nihilism.  It was terrifying as it crept everywhere. We saw areas burning on the news, no so far away, just two streets away from us, some Einstein decided to put through the windscreens on every car along the road. In a leafy part of Surrey. There was a lot of just random, unrelated vandalism everywhere. It wasn't contained and quickly over like the recent ones around London.

The thing that's changed is the foreboding sense of economic and social nihilism now in many city areas that feels closer to those big riots a few decades ago. That's a very different scenario to the causes of the recent riots. Still, I'll leave it there before I start sounding like a wild montana mountain man heading to the mountains with tinned food and shotguns. Crime and social trends are things I am following closely at the moment, together with Bonds, sterling and crypto currency trends (i.e., since crypto currency movements seem to be building enough momentum to trigger a fiat currency run at the margins). One of those is going to go bang at some point - but social cohesion could still be the black swan.

Interesting reading.  Demographics has changed since the 1970's a lot, in the areas I walk and shop half speak other languages and there has been huge migration to the UK.  I wonder how many of those who are visitors and those who choose to migrate would then be willing to participate in a riot?   The world of owning stuff like expensive cars and housing kind sits at the end of spectrum where the first thought is, will a riot lower my house value rather than lets riot IMHO.

If they came out with some killer tax or benefit change that effected enough people we might see something on the scale of mark duggan or perhaps the poll tax riots.  I'm still waiting for either...   you know the rothschild saying about blood on the streets, can't imagine a HPC without one.

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6 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

Loads of people being crammed into London like sardines ready to kick off?

The "whats the point" culture where working hard getting a job and buying a house is replaced with a what you are given is what you will get.

Forcing immigrants on top of immigrants to keep the credit Ponzi going so they tool up to deal with the third world violence.

etc etc

 

 

Immigrants have a reason to work brits don’t.. get a low paid job, all cram into an HMO and it’s still more wages than they could receive back home.. once they have saved enough, go back home and buy a house.. they can even send child tax credits (whatever they are called) home if they have kids.. 

brits.. if you are in a low paid job.. do that job till you are burnt out, give all your money to your landlord, now go and live in a box on the steeet.. we are done with you.. NEXT

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3 hours ago, Maynardgravy said:

London's gone - one can argue the benefits or not, but no one was asked, but it's no longer an English city. It must be perplexing for any tourist who sees the house of commons or the Royals on TV and then come to London. I do wonder how the Royal family will maintain any credibility in what will become a predominantly non-white capital.  Then again, as a republican I'll find that part a little amusing.

About 60% of London's population was born in the UK.

About 60% of London's population is White.

But don't equate or confuse the two - around a quarter of the UK-born Londoners are Black or Asian, and a large chunk of London's White population are from Australia or elsewhere in Europe: for example, London houses the largest Lithuanian population outside Lithuania itself.  

As to the Royals, I guess in this context Prince Harry announcing his engagement to someone who isn't White and wasn't born in the UK suggests that Harry at least wouldn't have too many problems with London's demographics. :) 

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When our country ends up crashing out of the EU the parasites from E.Europe will hopefully get the message and sod off.

Then we can go back to being a civilised country like our cousins have in the southern hemisphere.

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4 hours ago, frankvw said:

Well, I was only young during the 70's and 80's riots but I remember sitting at home with my parents, watching the news for weeks at a time  when riots flared,

It wasn't one particular thing triggering it, just a general malaise and nihilism.

Yes. The 2011 riots were linked to a police shooting in London but soon enough we had people in Manchester looting and rioting. Many people took part just because. A trigger is likely to be unpredictable, whilst it's the social conditions that build up to this attitude that aren't being addressed.

These days I find the mood of the country is on a downward spiral. People are doing their best but there's a lot of resignation in the way people talk. The poorer parts of society are probably doing worse now than 6 years ago. If things continue as they are we will see increasing numbers of poor people who feel disenfranchised. There's no sign of government doing anything to improve living standards. Quite the opposite if you believe (as I do) that house prices are one of the most significant burdens on people's finances and quality of life. And that is filtering down into rentals and social housing.

5 hours ago, frankvw said:

The recent riots were a picnic compared to some of those that spread across the UK in the late seventees and early eightees. That's where I feel we are heading.

This is what's been crossing my mind. If Durhamborn's prediction of mass wealth destruction, deflation and then reflation, come to pass I should think there will me major social consequences. History repeating itself may be too simple but there are parallels.

 

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4 hours ago, sPinwheel said:

Another riot? Sure I'm in. Just give me 20mins to finish my duck l'orange and cognac.

Funny you mention that because I left my duck a l'orange and cognac on the front seat of my car.


Heeey!!

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7 hours ago, ExiledMatty said:

When our country ends up crashing out of the EU the parasites from E.Europe will hopefully get the message and sod off.

Then we can go back to being a civilised country like our cousins have in the southern hemisphere.

Argentina?  

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19 hours ago, Parkwell said:

The government learnt nothing from the 2011 riots. Continuing on a path of increasing inequality, stagnant wages, and few rewards for working hard. Millennials are giving up on the idea of ever owning a home. Most people have little to no savings and/or are in debt.

As more people feel they have nothing to lose and nothing to gain, what will be the long term effect?

What economic conditions should we expect to produce civil unrest and is it likely to happen?

 

They learn't how to use the camera's to prosecute looters. Might put off a lot of casual looters.

I don't remember the rioters in the 80's actually getting caught. But I was busy at school, we even had a mini riot at school (morons had seen it on TV and decided to imitate).

Was quite worrying I was doing my O-level computer science coursework on one of the schools "2" computers at the time. Scared they would attack the Nerd and smash the computers.

Nobody was interested in computers back then no internet, porn or games to play.  

Once it got started in the 80's I think a lot of the motivation was to steal stuff. I think the UK has 20% of the worlds CCTV.  Without that I think it could kick off fairly easy. 

Our situation is much worse now, but for clever distractions it would be much more obvious to everyone. 

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9 hours ago, Parkwell said:

This is what's been crossing my mind. If Durhamborn's prediction of mass wealth destruction, deflation and then reflation, come to pass I should think there will me major social consequences. History repeating itself may be too simple but there are parallels.

Which is obviously one of the reasons why gold is such a critical investment at this point. At least you can bury it in the ground if the worst comes to the worst (or even flee across borders carrying it).

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in my view a riot will happen when  the basics fall together.

-US FED raises interest rates for whatever reason (we can't predict actual causes... but they will happen).

-BoE "housing ponzi" refuses to follow suit

-Market punishes GBP

-Brexit means hard borders for transport of food and goods. 

-Opportunity for food suppliers to bump up prices

-Benefits and "minimum wage" don't keep up.

-increase in crime by the desperate proles.

-Police crackdown

-kick off

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22 minutes ago, Errol said:

Which is obviously one of the reasons why gold is such a critical investment at this point. At least you can bury it in the ground if the worst comes to the worst (or even flee across borders carrying it).

I am guessing possession of large amounts of gold (beyond about 20-30g of "personal gold") will become illegal soon... I'd expect the government will begin deeming it as an attempt at:

1- money laundering for criminals

2- terrorism funding

and anyone who doesn't hand over their gold for the government mandated purchase price will be treated as a terrorist / money launderer.

Lets revisit this thread in 4-5 years and see what happens.

 

I would guess a future "crypto currency" with a more efficient blockchain will take over... and the governments of the world will fight tooth and nail to kill it, but fail. Gold is much easier to repo by comparison.

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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