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houseface2000

Sellers withdraw from the market

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Just had a look houses for sale in my village, its 2000 odd houses in size. 26 houses currently for sale. What I've noticed is that of those 4 are btl unloading,  8 are  new development homes,  2 empty homes and 2 flippers. Only 10 people who are actually looking to move and 16 that are purely looking to make money. It seems most genuine sellers have pulled out of the market now its gone quiet. is this a general theme of a pre crash ?? If the shit hits the fan 60% of the stock in my village needs to shifted asap

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2 hours ago, houseface2000 said:

Just had a look houses for sale in my village, its 2000 odd houses in size. 26 houses currently for sale. What I've noticed is that of those 4 are btl unloading,  8 are  new development homes,  2 empty homes and 2 flippers. Only 10 people who are actually looking to move and 16 that are purely looking to make money. It seems most genuine sellers have pulled out of the market now its gone quiet. is this a general theme of a pre crash ?? If the shit hits the fan 60% of the stock in my village needs to shifted asap

Hadn't looked at Zoopla that way. Great insight.

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Ive been following my town too for about 6months. there was approx. 90 for sale in june, yesterday this has dropped to 60. This appears to be a double edged sword.

1 Genuine sellers pulled out from the market resulting in only speculative sellers remaining...

2 Lack of houses for sale artificially inflates asking prices due to scarcity of properties.

I guess when the tax bills of the BTL sellers hit the mats this will place massive pressure on the BTL sellers to reduce the price for a quicker sale, but until we have a massive upturn in properties coming to market causing downward pressure on prices I cant see me being able to buy in my town.

 

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For a meaningful price correction we need forced sellers...recession and unemployment have delivered this in all previously meaningful crashes.

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3 minutes ago, Wayward said:

For a meaningful price correction we need forced sellers...recession and unemployment have delivered this in all previously meaningful crashes.

Repossessions too. I'm sure any party would love to be in power if that were to happen.

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3 hours ago, houseface2000 said:

Just had a look houses for sale in my village, its 2000 odd houses in size. 26 houses currently for sale. What I've noticed is that of those 4 are btl unloading,  8 are  new development homes,  2 empty homes and 2 flippers. Only 10 people who are actually looking to move and 16 that are purely looking to make money. It seems most genuine sellers have pulled out of the market now its gone quiet. is this a general theme of a pre crash ?? If the shit hits the fan 60% of the stock in my village needs to shifted asap

how do you know the status of all the sellers?

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1 minute ago, sPinwheel said:

Repossessions too. I'm sure any party would love to be in power if that were to happen.

Yes I include repos in with forced selling...necessary I believe for a meaningful correction.  We can't be criticised for looking towards this...TPTB have created this situation driven by their greed.

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53 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

Ive been following my town too for about 6months. there was approx. 90 for sale in june, yesterday this has dropped to 60.

Not exactly  unusual for the time of year...

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In my bit of Bh15, there's never been a smaller number of houses for sale, and 50% of them are reduced.

Estate Agents must be eating Essentials baked beans, bought on the plastic... 

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Housing stock available has been an issue for the last few years, it may indeed have grown worse, I haven’t kept tabs so much recently once investment trigger prices were long sailed past.

despite real wages falling and have been doing for a number of years employment is low enough to just about support the ability to continue to service mortgages.

on the face of it there doesn’t yet appear to be any stresses in the sector, although behind the scenes many contributors see a storm on the horizon.

However whilst such a scenario exists market forces play out verbatim with short supply keeping prices high.

it only takes a tipping point in the economy like a loss of confidence from brexit negotiations etc leading to job insecurity etc and it will likely instigate ‘panic’ sales from those particularly vulnerable to perceived negative equity. Such a scenario often then leads to a self fulfilling prophecy. 

The balance will change and I don’t see it being too much longer either, affordability alone is the greatest concern. 

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6 minutes ago, juvenal said:

In my bit of Bh15, there's never been a smaller number of houses for sale, and 50% of them are reduced.

Estate Agents must be eating Essentials baked beans, bought on the plastic... 

Or living off exorbitant fees from renters

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The funniest thing about the UK housing market is that there is a perception of a huge limitless demand for homes. The demand exists only because want to buy a place watch it go up in value to then sell it on and make huge amounts of money on. The demand to buy a house just to live in appears to be limited!

Saw two friends at the weekend one looking to buy in Oxford the other had just bought in London well Sunbury on Thames. She said they got £40k off the list price as no one in London can sell there homes. She the agents where very open about the fact nothings shifting. The other ftb looking in Oxford seemed confuse, almost shocked that prices were falling and said it not like that round here hmmmm

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http://www.financialreporter.co.uk/finance-news/new-listings-fall-by-a-quarter-as-housing-market-packs-up-for-christmas.html

"New property listings in November fell by almost a quarter (22%) compared to October"

Bath - new property listings down 50% on October.

Watford - 40% fewer new sellers advertising their properties last month.

London, new sellers in November tumbled by almost a third (30.3%) on October. There wasn’t a single London borough that saw supply rise last month, with Kingston upon Thames experiencing a 42.5% drop in new property listings.

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33 minutes ago, adarmo said:

..... for now....... :) 

Indeed. The loss of earnings from fee extraction may help EAs focus on their traditional role of making money by selling properties. The stern words with vendors that requires could be very significant for HPC purposes...

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5 hours ago, houseface2000 said:

Just had a look houses for sale in my village, its 2000 odd houses in size. 26 houses currently for sale. What I've noticed is that of those 4 are btl unloading,  8 are  new development homes,  2 empty homes and 2 flippers. Only 10 people who are actually looking to move and 16 that are purely looking to make money. It seems most genuine sellers have pulled out of the market now its gone quiet. is this a general theme of a pre crash ?? If the shit hits the fan 60% of the stock in my village needs to shifted asap

How do you know which ones are flippers etc?

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2 hours ago, Wayward said:

For a meaningful price correction we need forced sellers...recession and unemployment have delivered this in all previously meaningful crashes.

We need a law disallowing 2nd homes.

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7 minutes ago, lombardo said:

We need a law disallowing 2nd homes.

I absolutely agree with this and it is a law that should have been passed many years ago but hey, ho that would hurt rich people so that would never do.

Edited by dougless

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Most sellers will probably sit tight until after Christmas........I'm expecting a few hefty discounts in January from people who really want to sell.......:D

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1 hour ago, lombardo said:

We need a law disallowing 2nd homes.

Well yes, that is very much in the interests of the populace but we are not governed on that basis so you are peeing in the wind.

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6 hours ago, houseface2000 said:

Just had a look houses for sale in my village, its 2000 odd houses in size. 26 houses currently for sale. What I've noticed is that of those 4 are btl unloading,  8 are  new development homes,  2 empty homes and 2 flippers. Only 10 people who are actually looking to move and 16 that are purely looking to make money. It seems most genuine sellers have pulled out of the market now its gone quiet. is this a general theme of a pre crash ?? If the shit hits the fan 60% of the stock in my village needs to shifted asap

It’s Christmas ? 

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1 hour ago, janch said:

Most sellers will probably sit tight until after Christmas........I'm expecting a few hefty discounts in January from people who really want to sell.......:D

I think so

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  • 406 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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