November Budget 2017

[Venger]

Quote

 

IMLA: Budget should focus on affordable homes – not buy-to-let
November 20, 2017

Wednesday’s Autumn Budget should focus on affordable housing but leave buy-to-let alone, Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association executive director Peter Williams (pictured) has urged.

He noted that Chancellor Philip Hammond is under pressure to address the housing crisis.

But Williams said: “Landlords are not the problem rather it is the lack of homes and not least affordable homes – that’s where the Budget should focus.

more... https://www.mortgageintroducer.com/imla-budget-focus-affordable-homes-not-buy-let/#.WhLQW1W6-AY

 

[Futuroid]

13 minutes ago, Venger said:

It's funny how they don't realise that affordable housing and BTL are related. One has prevented the other from being possible.

(Spoiler - bet they do realise )

Also, the FT debunk the myth that the UK can build it's way out of the housing crisis:

Hammond’s housebuilding budget fix will not repair market

https://www.ft.com/content/20b3046c-cab2-11e7-ab18-7a9fb7d6163e

"A similar thing happened in other European countries, notably Spain and Ireland. “After about 2003 [the boom] became more about rates and money,” says Kieran McQuinn, a research professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin."

"Such favourable treatment of property in the legal and tax systems, and the ready availability of cheap credit and government support, did more than just nurture a long house price boom. They created behavioural effects that no econometric house price model could capture"

The penny is starting to drop.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

It's funny how they don't realise that affordable housing and BTL are related. One has prevented the other from being possible.

(Spoiler - bet they do realise )

Also, the FT debunk the myth that the UK can build it's way out of the housing crisis:

Hammond’s housebuilding budget fix will not repair market

https://www.ft.com/content/20b3046c-cab2-11e7-ab18-7a9fb7d6163e

"A similar thing happened in other European countries, notably Spain and Ireland. “After about 2003 [the boom] became more about rates and money,” says Kieran McQuinn, a research professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin."

"Such favourable treatment of property in the legal and tax systems, and the ready availability of cheap credit and government support, did more than just nurture a long house price boom. They created behavioural effects that no econometric house price model could capture"

The penny is starting to drop.

This graph tells a different story.

 

BTL is THE problem.

 

[Futuroid]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This graph tells a different story.

 

BTL is THE problem.

 

I know BTL is a big part of the problem (I was just being facetious). 

The FT article (google the title if you don't have an FT sub) is worth a read as it identifies a number of factors - it's not going to be as easy as "taxing BTL out of existence" to fix the housing market - although that as one measure among many would be a good place to start.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

26 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

I know BTL is a big part of the problem (I was just being facetious). 

The FT article (google the title if you don't have an FT sub) is worth a read as it identifies a number of factors - it's not going to be as easy as "taxing BTL out of existence" to fix the housing market - although that as one measure among many would be a good place to start.

I wasnt replying to you directly, sorry, Im not sure I even replied in a the right thread  

[Futuroid]

Well whaddya know - surprised it's not higher actually:

One in seven councillors in English rental hotspots are landlords

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/20/one-in-seven-councillors-in-english-rental-hotspots-are-landlords

[spyguy]

2 hours ago, Futuroid said:

I know BTL is a big part of the problem (I was just being facetious). 

The FT article (google the title if you don't have an FT sub) is worth a read as it identifies a number of factors - it's not going to be as easy as "taxing BTL out of existence" to fix the housing market - although that as one measure among many would be a good place to start.

There are lots of problems - IO BTL, housing benefit, tax credits,  bailing out banks which should have gone bust, etc etc.

Gordon Brown's fingers are on all of them.

[crashmonitor]

On 18/11/2017 at 10:07 AM, jiltedjen said:

This budget we witness the death of the Conservative party on a short and medium term time-line.

they have to be more drastic than their own party would ever allow. too full of boomers bankers and new money neoliberals. 

lots of headline stories, like tears in the rain. no real effect. 

The Tories and the country need a lift from this budget, the domestic economy is looking really shakey. Confidence is lowest in the Domestic  Corporate sector just now, and that probably matters more than consumer confidence if we want real growth and investment. 

Over to Dr Doom; Phil "Sabotage" Hammond then to lift spirits and I'm not talking alcoholic duty.

[goldbug9999]

On 11/20/2017 at 1:26 PM, Futuroid said:

it's not going to be as easy as "taxing BTL out of existence"

It would be a fun place to start though.

[goldbug9999]

On 11/20/2017 at 1:22 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This graph tells a different story.

BTL is THE problem.

You dont need the graph, over 70% net new lending in the last 10 years has been for BTL mortgages.

[Lavalas]

 

[Social Justice League]

May is going to solve the housing crisis apparently.

 

(who's that sniggering)

[jiltedjen]

here we go!

[zugzwang]

OBR: Debt as % of GDP has peaked.

[oatbake]

On 19/11/2017 at 5:20 PM, oracle said:

not necessarily,but it is the tories ball to lose now,and if they DON'T get a grip and do some really radical stuff,like a PROPER return to cadbury capitalism-as ted malloch puts it, then it will certainly be the death of them.

 

the polarisation of landed gentry v serfs on the conservative side, and workers revolutionary utopia on the labour side must be avoided at all costs.

the solution is,as I said, cadbury capitalism.

1)fair days pay for fair days work,including stuff like tax breaks for employee profit shares in companies-if you want to be really drastic then limit corporate boss share ownership options to the same percentage of salary as employees,to be issued similtaneously

2)PROPER housing policy of 3.5-4* basic INDIVIDUAL salary target, with absolutely no tax breaks for multiple home ownership...council tax on home OWNER,not occupier,with a multiplier for extra homes over primary residence

3)massive tuition fee scaling back,-multi tiered so STEM courses pay virtually nothing while BS degrees pay top whack.

4)flat tax,for income/NI with threshold set higher,as it takes less civil servants to administer- £15k tax free should be do-able virtually immediately.

5)drastically reduce scope of local council operation, they do too much very badly,and it costs a lot.

6)civil liverties....again down to big bolshy government...doing too much that is not their remit..cut it out.NOW...she does not have good form on this so far,and needs to change pretty damn quick

7)admission that globalism is not working for the little guy and MASSIVE investment in enterprise,infrastucture,hi tech and manufacturing, coupled with a lot less pointless diktat about how many bloody carrier bags you can buy or dogs you are allowed to walk on a public thoroughfare.

 

anything less and it's the workers revolution comrades...and UK will indeed look like venezuela.If may is smart she can get through this and make corbyn and co look like antagonists that should frankly be locked up for sedition,because public support for general strikes in health,transport,education and government will not be there....but the ball is very much in her court now.

if she screws up we lose.we all lose....likewise with brexit.she needs firm decisive action NOW to keep people sweet.

Well said. I totally agree with every word!

[thehowler]

Brexit boom here we come...

3Bn for preps, significant if new money.

 

[Ash4781]

3 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

OBR: Debt as % of GDP has peaked.

Good grief. OBR growth forecasts don’t look great. Not good at all!

Edited November 22, 2017 by Ash4781

[thehowler]

I'm surprised how upbeat Hammond is sounding - maybe he really does have a rabbit ready?

[thewig]

GBP Selling off...

 

[jiltedjen]

hurry up with the housing my lunch is almost over. 

[Venger]

4 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

It would be a fun place to start though.

Georgist's reply made me laugh - and it's true. 

ben was going on an on about building more...

...what's the point when BTLers have been buying up both newbuilds and secondary market houses for years, by the millions of houses.

 

Quote

 

http://www.thetimes....f4bb875d204d1d6

Departmental figures show that the vast majority of new housing in the UK since the turn of the millennium has been bought by landlords. Between 2000 and 2012, the private rented sector has accounted for some 2.5 million of the extra homes. Only 400,000 have been bought by occupiers.

Of 2.9m new homes built since 2000, 2.5m (i.e.86%) bought by landlords, 400k by owner-occupiers as home ownership plunges to lowest since 1988.

 

On 28/04/2015 at 12:11 PM, FreeTrader said:

George Speight: "Who bought the inter-war semi? The socio-economic characteristics of new house buyers in the 1930s".

University of Oxford: Discussion Papers in Economic and Social History, Number 38, December 2000.

From that paper (my emphasis):

"The interwar period saw very high levels of private house-building. Private enterprise built 2.88 million houses, compared to a stock of 7.9 million outstanding in 1919. This high level – which was concentrated in the years 1933 to 1938 – was an important episode in Britain’s economic and social development. During the 1930s, house-building accounted for a much higher proportion of GDP than it had during any previous period, and the sharp increase in house-building in 1933 and 1934 was central to the country’s recovery from recession. [...] And since the vast majority of the new privately-built houses were for owner-occupation rather than for letting (due to the decline of investment in property for letting and the readiness of building societies to supply finance on generous terms), the house-building boom led to a significant increase in the incidence of owner-occupation."

And from the conclusion (BTL investors beware):

"But if one is interested in the spread of owner-occupation per se, it is necessary to consider not only the two million plus houses built in the interwar period for owner-occupation, but also the large number of houses – estimated to be in excess of one million – transferred out of the privately-rented sector by sale to owner-occupiers. In a large proportion of these cases, landlords sold their properties in response to the low returns imposed on them by the rent restriction legislation. (Conversely, they were concentrated in the 1920s.) In many cases they could only realise low prices for their properties, and they often sold to the sitting tenants."

Quote

There is much evidence that human expectations tend to be linear. Most of the time, most people expect current conditions to continue for the indefinite future. Wherever prosperity exists, it is natural for people to expect prosperity to continue. For this reason, much of the history of human society is a record of astonishment.

Time and again, people have marginalised their affairs, rendering themselves increasingly crisis-prone. They have gone into debt, extending claims on resources to an extreme that could be supported only if current conditions were sustained uninterrupted into the future. Time and again these hopes have been disappointed.

Find out the greedy anti-social BTLers, once again - in these extremes.  It's time - it's beyond time for it.

Edited November 22, 2017 by Venger

[zugzwang]

1 minute ago, thehowler said:

I'm surprised how upbeat Hammond is sounding - maybe he really does have a rabbit ready?

Of course he does. Another £25bn of hpi via the TFS.

[thehowler]

Too many jokes. Labour front bench not chortling. Small beer investments - where's the rabbit?

[billybong]

"More maths for everyone".

£40 million 

Investing in digital skills

£30 million 

An economy fit for the future 

Edited November 22, 2017 by billybong

[zugzwang]

When does the budget start, Phil?