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Has he been reading this forum? Incredible honesty coming from his speech in Bristol, obviously orchestrating something dramatic in the budget. Massive house building on the way methinks via government borrowing.

Open admission of clueless boomers living on another planet, the ridiculousness of blaming youth spending their money on avocado toast, 3 years to save a deposit for boomers vs 25 years now...

Hard to not be cynical but these noises are all the right ones compared to his past speeches.

Edited by Barnsey

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I think this is part of it.

Quote

Plans to encourage housing associations to borrow money to invest in new homes are being announced as part of a fresh government house-building drive.

Housing associations will be reclassified as private bodies allowing their £70bn debt to be removed from the government's balance sheet.

Ministers move debt to boost building

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1 minute ago, oldsport said:

I think this is part of it.

Ministers move debt to boost building

Thanks oldsport, being discussed on bbc 1 right now. I'm just as negative as most about the lack of action, but after years of making excuses, to hear those words come out of his mouth, finally, was a breath of fresh air, and a direct acknowledgement of how ridiculous things have become, albeit not discussing easy money/FLS and low rates (naturally).

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2 minutes ago, Errol said:

Yes, because obviously borrowing a shed load more money is clearly the correct solution. More debt is always the answer, apparently.

The prospect of adding another 3% to this is the real issue. Public sector debt is still only ~90% of GDP!

The neoliberal fools have had eight years to engineer a correction yet here we are still heading in the wrong direction. A national tragedy.

Screen-Shot-2017-04-21-at-13.53.09.png

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11 minutes ago, chronyx said:

I can't wait for more blocks of flats or loss of open/green space

Reducing the oversupply of credit is only one half of solving the HPI problem; increasing the supply of housing is the other half. We simply do not have enough housing stock in this country. 

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6 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

Reducing the oversupply of credit is only one half of solving the HPI problem; increasing the supply of housing is the other half. We simply do not have enough housing stock in this country. 

Not convinced by this lazy narrative at all. There’s millions of four and five bed family homes with smug boomers rattling around in one bedroom, and millions of young families cramped into flats because they can’t afford boomer mega bubble  prices. 

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23 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The prospect of adding another 3% to this is the real issue. Public sector debt is still only ~90% of GDP!

The neoliberal fools have had eight years to engineer a correction yet here we are still heading in the wrong direction. A national tragedy.

Screen-Shot-2017-04-21-at-13.53.09.png

I'm assuming the "Debt" is the total debt of households, non-financial corporates and government?

But, what does the blue line "Credit" represent?

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12 minutes ago, thewig said:

Not convinced by this lazy narrative at all. There’s millions of four and five bed family homes with smug boomers rattling around in one bedroom, and millions of young families cramped into flats because they can’t afford boomer mega bubble  prices. 

Absolutely, and the insane increase since 96' in the percentage of the UK housing supply owned by landlords. You don't see massive lines of homeless people outside every lettings agent desperately waiting for a vacant rental property, therefore there is no housing shortage. That being said, the more property the better, providing they aren't bought up by landlords or foreigners to leave vacant.

Edited by Barnsey

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Conservative government has realized that its need to do something for the younger voters like me, however, there is a conflict of self interest. With so many MPs as landlords and most owning 1 or more properties, the focus is entirely on sustaining the bubble not letting the natural laws of economics to correct the housing market.

As long as people can get cheap money, the HPI will be sustained - although much harder in London now.

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10 minutes ago, thewig said:

Not convinced by this lazy narrative at all. There’s millions of four and five bed family homes with smug boomers rattling around in one bedroom, and millions of young families cramped into flats because they can’t afford boomer mega bubble  prices. 

I do conceded that under occupation is an issue, but household formation has exceeded housing supply since councils were banned from building more housing in the early 80's. 

Ensuring that the existing stock is more optimally occupied will obviously help but I don't think that it's sufficient by itself. 

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1 hour ago, Errol said:

Yes, because obviously borrowing a shed load more money is clearly the correct solution. More debt is always the answer, apparently.

+1

I don't think the government has any intention of making housing cheaper. That would be terrible (for them). What the Tories want is to get people borrowing more money so they can be kept in debt servitude.

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5 minutes ago, NuBrit said:

+1

I don't think the government has any intention of making housing cheaper. That would be terrible (for them). What the Tories want is to get people borrowing more money so they can be kept in debt servitude.

well then these new places needed to be cheaper than existing stock then with no gimmicks.  prices are simply too expensive there is no other way. 

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56 minutes ago, warrior88 said:

Conservative government has realized that its need to do something for the younger voters like me, however, there is a conflict of self interest. With so many MPs as landlords and most owning 1 or more properties, the focus is entirely on sustaining the bubble not letting the natural laws of economics to correct the housing market.

As long as people can get cheap money, the HPI will be sustained - although much harder in London now.

I would guess it’s more to support the construction sector. I have seen quite a few companies dramatically reduce their capital expenditure. This is not primarily due to Brexit rather to improve their cash flow position. Up next rightly or wrongly comes the companies deferring capital investment decisions due to Brexit. We all know what the house builders will do in response to falling prices! (Scale down the company and land bank- mass job losses)

Edited by Ash4781

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2 hours ago, JustAnotherProle said:

Interesting, looks like they are priming for a large building programe. Well it's not as if they will lie about that is it?

Look at what they do, not what they say.

+1

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if they announce a truely big building program that wont effect sentiment that much would it? not on a local level? not unless your selling one of the few 6 bed houses in your local area, and they suddenly announce 50 6 bed houses just up the road. 

I think all more house building will do unless its truly massive. Is to slightly moderate future HPI. 

I think house building is not the big deal with so many balls deep into BTL, that's the true change which will feed through into more affordable prices.

The tories need to be very very very drastic and start to actively remove wealth from the boomers to even make a dint towards keeping their party relevant for future elections. The boomers are starting to drop like flies they are stuffed. 

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1 hour ago, thewig said:

Not convinced by this lazy narrative at all. There’s millions of four and five bed family homes with smug boomers rattling around in one bedroom, and millions of young families cramped into flats because they can’t afford boomer mega bubble  prices. 

It's not a 'lazy narrative' - its the root of the problem.  There is a shortage of supply (housing with old widows rattling around are not supply unless you force old widow Miggins out her home (cue Daily Mail/Express outrage)...there is no mechanism for inflation without conditions of scarcity and competitive bidding...increase supply and prices fall (everything else being equal).

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2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Has he been reading this forum? Incredible honesty coming from his speech in Bristol, obviously orchestrating something dramatic in the budget. Massive house building on the way methinks via government borrowing.

Open admission of clueless boomers living on another planet, the ridiculousness of blaming youth spending their money on avocado toast, 3 years to save a deposit for boomers vs 25 years now...

Hard to not be cynical but these noises are all the right ones compared to his past speeches.

Good stuff.

Plot twist: the government know that house prices cannot be kept up any longer and think they might as well take credit for it and win a few votes with the millenials. 

Anecdotally, a lot of older people (even boomers) do not seem so adverse to the idea of falling prices.

Only landlords stand to properly lose out, and even then only the over-leveraged ones will lose everything. They make up such a microscopically small part of the electorate, I don't see that the government will give them a second thought. They are going to be thrown under the bus, but as they keep reminding us they are business people, and people in business take risks that don't always work out.

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  • 406 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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