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Rightmove - delusion easing (-0.8% MoM)

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Don't get too excited - Rightmove always falls in November. In fact this is the smallest monthly fall in November in a decade - they usually go down by 2-3%.

However the juicy figure is that over 1/3 of sellers have reduced their asking price.

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21 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

Don't get too excited - Rightmove always falls in November. In fact this is the smallest monthly fall in November in a decade - they usually go down by 2-3%.

However the juicy figure is that over 1/3 of sellers have reduced their asking price.

Exactly. 

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26 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

Don't get too excited - Rightmove always falls in November. In fact this is the smallest monthly fall in November in a decade - they usually go down by 2-3%.

Except this has happened at a time when it has been widely publicised that the housing market has stalled - one in five believe there will be a crash within the next 12 months and more than half the population believe there will be a crash, at some point, within the next 5 years... sentiment is extremely low and this is reflected by the coverage of the Rightmove data in the MSM this morning. It's a sentiment changer.

Across the MSM this morning people are being told that last month the average house that sold had been reduced by 6.3%... various EAs are advising to price lower from the outset and reduce existing unsolds by at least 5% if they are to generate any interest.

"More than a third of home owners trying to sell their house have been forced to reduce their asking price, with the number of price cuts at their highest level since 2012, according to Rightmove" Guardian

 

I'm excited! ;)

 

 

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The Rightmove index does usually show a bigger fall in November but then the trend has also been for lower highs since mid 2014. It appears to be converging towards zero m/m.

Edited by Lavalas

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1 hour ago, anonlymouse said:

Don't get too excited - Rightmove always falls in November. In fact this is the smallest monthly fall in November in a decade - they usually go down by 2-3%.

Yes, though the last time it was that small a drop (2007) it preceded a decent fall. So that is one to consider.

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1 hour ago, anonlymouse said:

Don't get too excited - Rightmove always falls in November. In fact this is the smallest monthly fall in November in a decade - they usually go down by 2-3%.

However the juicy figure is that over 1/3 of sellers have reduced their asking price.

And that is a very juicy figure - it is in fact 37% of sellers who have reduced their asking price and as the article makes clear, new sellers are probably not being realistic:

Quote

However, with the largest proportion since 2012 of existing sellers at this time of year who have reduced their initial asking prices, the portal says it seems that many of this month’s new sellers are being too optimistic by not discounting by a greater factor than 0.8 per cent. 

I am pretty confident that this is the start of a concerted downwards move in the UK property market. We will soon have out 2018 property poll, and I would be surprised if we do not see falls of between 5% and 10% at a minimum.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/13/asking-price-reductions-five-year-high-sellers-dangle-bauble/

 

It’s lucky for those pesky iphone wielding and  avocado eating millennials that they have director and housing market analyst Miles Shipside‘s advice to hand.

He points out the dangers of having to reduce the price of properties, which could spook buyers who might think that there is something wrong with them.

Yes Miles, nothing to do with being forced to come down into any sense of reality then.

 

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10 minutes ago, sideysid said:

He points out the dangers of having to reduce the price of properties, which could spook buyers who might think that there is something wrong with them.

Yes Miles, nothing to do with being forced to come down into any sense of reality then.

 

I like that a lot of vendors will interpret what he is saying as "don't shoot yourself in the foot".

I think what he is saying is along the lines of: Going in below current market valuation will significantly increase the chances of selling - going in high and steadily lowering the price over time will have the adverse affect of potential buyers assuming that there must be something wrong with the property other than the price.

Prices need to come down and statements like this will go a long way towards achieving that... looks like the EAs etc intend to exert downward pressure on prices to keep transactions going. They work for us now! ;)

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Doesn't tie in with around here. Parents neighbour bought in Feb 2016 for 130k and have just put the house on the market for 160k, done nothing to it, same house. 30k increase for owning a house for almost 2 years. Why? Well two other houses on the estate are up for 155k and 159k but the highest a house has sold for on the estate is 145k and that was a 4 bed detached vs these 3 bed semis. Seems some people are still kite flying. It did make my mum realise why I don't want to buy, they paid 21k in 1988 so she's actually seeing now that prices are mad, as she pointed out, her and dad couldn't afford to buy that and have 3 kids these days!

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So it says the initial average asking price cut before achieving a sale is -6.3%

so the point they get offers is when they take 6.3% off.

but those offers will be below asking price say another 5%

so roughly all houses on sale currently. from initial asking prices. you can knock off around 12% to see the ‘real’ market price. 

 

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House prices slashed across the country as desperate sellers knock thousands off home values

Forget Black Friday, house sellers are having their own sale as prices are cut across Britain in the run up to Christmas

http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/house-prices-slashed-across-country-11512717

"For those who have had to reduce their asking price at least once, the average size of reduction between first marketing price and current asking price is 6.3%"

 

errr...

"prices slashed"

"desperate sellers"

"thousands off home values"

 

;)

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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