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999house

Im confused - Are house prices going up or down?

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Different indexes use different methodologies, different sample sizes, different ways of averaging.

The land registry is the only one worth watching IMO as it's based on a geometric average of repeat sales. Downside is that the data is three months late. 

 

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20 minutes ago, 999house said:

Every day there is conflicting news. Yesterday prices were rising according to Halifax. Today, prices are falling according to the BBC. What is actually going on?

believe who you like. 

its all made up anyway 

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There used to be a compilation somewhere on the main site of newspaper headlines from the 80s/90s crash (it's probably still there but I can't find it). The start of that crash had the same thing we're seeing now with headlines saying prices are rising one day and falling the next. I think there was even two articles in the same edition of one newspaper where one said prices were rising and the other said prices were crashing. 

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18 minutes ago, This time said:

Some interesting headlines on there. This one looks familiar:

FRI 29 JUL 1988 - The Times

Action on gazumping;House prices

The professions involved in house transfer have set up their own working party to consider estate agency and issues including gazumping. The working party, initiated by Mr Michael Clark, former president of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyor...

 

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56 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

Downside is that the data is three months late. 

 

And it doesnt include reposessions and some other properties (cant remember)

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13 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Truth's out there. You just need to filter out the noise.

the-isolator.jpg

Might get one of these for when ads come on the tv from Nationwide or Rightmove Find your Happy. Might need a bigger tinfoil hat for over the top but should find one on alibaba.

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Two sides are at play here. 

The market has changed and prices are clearly starting their descent but until we pass that tipping point where the fall can no longer be hidden by the ‘fiddling of the data’ and the trickery of the (bought and paid for) MSM in order to serve the purposes of the VIs who have, logically, positioned themselves as reliable and trustworthy reporters of said data - we can expect nothing more than what we are seeing at the moment. In fact - expect it to get a lot more confusing in the short term.

The truth, as R.K observed is continueing, at least for a little while longer, to be ‘twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools’...

Those with a Vested Interest in sustaining HPI will continue their game with their ‘pedal to the metal’ right up until their last breath. Ignore it... they are - as we all know - self serving c*nts.

Edited by Mapatasy

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3 hours ago, IsThisRealLife said:

Some interesting headlines on there. This one looks familiar:

FRI 29 JUL 1988 - The Times

Action on gazumping;House prices

The professions involved in house transfer have set up their own working party to consider estate agency and issues including gazumping. The working party, initiated by Mr Michael Clark, former president of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyor...

 

That is a fantastic mine of history

Eeery  how similar it is.

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11 hours ago, 999house said:

Every day there is conflicting news. Yesterday prices were rising according to Halifax. Today, prices are falling according to the BBC. What is actually going on?

In a word, obfuscation.

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11 hours ago, 999house said:

Every day there is conflicting news. Yesterday prices were rising according to Halifax. Today, prices are falling according to the BBC. What is actually going on?

Maybe those with VI want to unload whilst the prices are still high. Make everyone believe everything's still good whilst selling, then open the floodgates once their properties are sold

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7 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Latest Rightmove on Monday and Land Reg on Tuesday.

Expect disappointment.  

The trick with land reg is to burrow down into the local level and filter by property type. For instance when Hackney as a whole is being shown as rising, strip out the expensive detached and terraced houses at the top of the market and you get this picture of the entry level stuff -peaked 18 months ago and down 8% some then. I wonder what will happen when that filters out into the headlines

Land Registery House Price Index - Hackney Flats & Maisonettes.JPG

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It depends where you are. Where I am in the north west Midlands, the right house at the right price still sells quickly at ever higher prices. A house at the wrong price will take longer to sell, but still sell for way more than it ever should have.

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We're in the Fall, prices always fall, with a few exceptions like 1999-2003 when the economy was being run from Brown's asylum. The key is whether they recover in March via a Spring bounce. God knows on that one.

The indicies are seasoned so autumn/ winter falls can translate into rising prices.

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Low numbers of houses for sale, especially good ones.

Very few selling.  

Is the price paid for a RARE sold house determined by a slightly desperate seller or buyer?

When volumes increase, we'll get a market, price discovery, decent info.

 

As an aside...

I'm guessing my next / last house purchase will be a bungalow or family house with granny annex.

No rush for this and it'll be wherever is convenient for grandkids... In 30 years probably!  Hmm, maybe my next abode will be an urn!

I think for once demographics will be on my side.  When I choose to buy the current occupants will be long gone and their demographic bulge as well.  So far less demand for something (bungalows) than there is now, could be peak demand for bungalows around now.

Family houses will free up soon from the same baby boom demographic.  A relative has kept on at the family house.  They have some additional reasons to stay which I won't relay.  But what was difficult is becoming impossible in a house with stairs.  

If the BTLers don't overpay (hopefully they're crushed now) then a good family house will be available in the future.

It's been a long time coming, much harm done but one aspect should improve soon.

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1 hour ago, NorthamptonBear said:

Low numbers of houses for sale, especially good ones.

Very few selling.  

Is the price paid for a RARE sold house determined by a slightly desperate seller or buyer?

When volumes increase, we'll get a market, price discovery, decent info.

 

As an aside...

I'm guessing my next / last house purchase will be a bungalow or family house with granny annex.

No rush for this and it'll be wherever is convenient for grandkids... In 30 years probably!  Hmm, maybe my next abode will be an urn!

I think for once demographics will be on my side.  When I choose to buy the current occupants will be long gone and their demographic bulge as well.  So far less demand for something (bungalows) than there is now, could be peak demand for bungalows around now.

Family houses will free up soon from the same baby boom demographic.  A relative has kept on at the family house.  They have some additional reasons to stay which I won't relay.  But what was difficult is becoming impossible in a house with stairs.  

If the BTLers don't overpay (hopefully they're crushed now) then a good family house will be available in the future.

It's been a long time coming, much harm done but one aspect should improve soon.

Yep

Buy a restaurant in a lovely location that turns over 500K+ and increase the price all dishes £1000 a plate from £12.

You will go bankrupt as turnover falls to under 50,000 but maybe the odd customer will come in and not give a shit either flash, loaded or stupid.

You average sale is £1000 + = Win to an estate agent apparently happy days

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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