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I've been looking at Property News for the past 7 months and there is nothing but mold ridden over priced dumps with epc ratings so low you could hang beef.

The worst offenders being Templeton Robinson and J John Minnis  these two are over pricing everything and anything they come across by Twenty to seventy five thousand pound .

 

New builds are no better Simon Breen  and reeds rains love nothing more at the minute than there 1100 square foot open plan three or four bedroom's net even hardwired for the internet. 

What sort of parents let there kids buy these things

 

Then there's  Roger and Brown favored by the MP and old money the amount of dumps they have inst even funny that tip they just sold for a few million must have been to someone who has never worked for there money because if they had they would have known better.  The only good thing about them at the minute is middle class owners are starting to  think these guys sell big houses they must be the guys for me and in turn there homes are being listing between seven and ten thousand pound less than the one next door in order to sell fast and get into the area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, GEN_X said:

I've been looking at Property News for the past 7 months and there is nothing but mold ridden over priced dumps with epc ratings so low you could hang beef.

The worst offenders being Templeton Robinson and J John Minnis  these two are over pricing everything and anything they come across by Twenty to seventy five thousand pound .

 

New builds are no better Simon Breen  and reeds rains love nothing more at the minute than there 1100 square foot open plan three or four bedroom's net even hardwired for the internet. 

What sort of parents let there kids buy these things

 

Then there's  Roger and Brown favored by the MP and old money the amount of dumps they have inst even funny that tip they just sold for a few million must have been to someone who has never worked for there money because if they had they would have known better.  The only good thing about them at the minute is middle class owners are starting to  think these guys sell big houses they must be the guys for me and in turn there homes are being listing between seven and ten thousand pound less than the one next door in order to sell fast and get into the area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agreed- I keep seeing bigger family homes sitting there on Zoopla and Property Pal with internal decor that looks about 40 years old. The Boomers living in them don't look to have spent a penny on upkeep but expect someone to come and buy it off them for a fortune. Money pits.

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They really haven't kept on top of things at all. The amount of places that have a fresh coat of white paint to try and hide the Damp and Mold is serious

Templeton Robinson  currently have a four bed in a good area on there book the thing is two people have pulled out due to finding out that lightning hit the roof but if you were to contact them about the house i;m sure they will say the house is mint and there is high interest in it.  "my advice when looking at a house is speak to the Neighbours" 

Mp's In this country arn't on our side either I have seen first hand the dumps they rent out and how they use solicitors to weave slip and slide. while they live in  five hundred thousand pound plus homes. then go on the nolan show and keep the uneducated and deprived fighting over a flag you dont see to many of them making sure the children of this country ar learning computer programing like the rest of the uk and even ireland  

 

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I don't see the issue over the lightning strike as so long as it was all repaired. Lightning doesn't strike twice

 

In NI you are still about 40% below peak. I've been looking for a graph of NI house prices adjusted for CPI or RPI. Where are you looking anyway?

Edited by bear.getting.old

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This house is in one of the best areas there is i can say with confidence if two people have walked the house is ******ed.and its not the only one there is a thread on reddit were people are seeing houses with all sorts wrong with them.

 

I havent looked at any graphs or anything like that I have just looked on property news and came to the conclusion that a open plan 1100 square foot three or four bedroom priced at £235.000 is insane and there only selling at this price point because the first time buyer is getting a loan from the government. and because of this the person in the 2005 square foot house  that should be pricing there home at around £240.000 / £250.000 is saying if there getting that I want anything thing from £270.000 to £310.000 and so on

 

Here is an examples for you

House built four years ago £40.000 has been added on for good measure.

https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Newtownards/1207RR200936790/7-Tullynagardy-Avenue/431334928/

 

you want to see were they have built these things too

https://www.propertynews.com/New-Homes/Bangor/35913/Shamrock-Glen-Irvine-Park-Bangor/431335138/

google map https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Irvine+Park,+Bangor+BT19+7XR/@54.6429911,-5.6414859,169m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x486175fd33297bc9:0x90e041a65e3e2f8f!8m2!3d54.6429911!4d-5.6409433?dcr=0

 

or my current favorite

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@54.5960867,-5.6752239,3a,75y,65.94h,90t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sjRDCCq4HD_sg9IZUPMP6gQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

They really are building on that bit of grass

 

 

 

 

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Current house prices have been rising at an unsustainable rate within the last few years, and it's been frustrating to watch it unfold.

It all started on 2013 when banks slowly opened the taps again on lending, as each year passed the more aggressive banks became in providing huge sums of money with even lower deposits - not including any government schemes such as HTB, co-ownership, etc. This for me is the primary reason of where we are at now.

House prices corrected itself after the crash, but I feel we are right back in the crazy days of house price snobbery. Of course, house prices should go up, but only inline with inflation (which includes wage inflation), however we are not seeing that unfortunately. I do blame banks for their loose lending, but I also blame politicians for not regulating the system and repairing what went wrong before, although the game is rigged with many politicians having a vested interested in rising house prices (many being landlords).

Yes, house prices are currently messed up, debt is now wealth in today's society, while any savings are frowned upon and are gradually being eaten away. Will things change? I'm not sure what the future will bring, will the debt machine prolong or will it collapse again... either way, the outlook doesn't look too favourable with a non-functioning government, IR rises, and brexit looming. What do I know though, as I certainly didn't expect HPI to rise so fast in recent years.

 

2 hours ago, GEN_X said:

Great views of the road and then graveyard from that small patch of grass.

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I agree with the majority of that. 2013 and the credit loosening has caused the increases we see today. The various schemes supporting literally thousands of transactions, the antithesis of a free market, is also supporting prices further up the ponzi pyramid. 

I don't necessarily agree with the housing raising with inflation. IMO old housing prices should be deflating as building technology improves costs decrease and maintenance due to age increases servicing costs. If it was a free market equilibrium would see prices decrease in real terms over time. But of course it isn't and they don't because the Tories aren't really free market supporters. Not when it effects votes. 

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That's a fair point, I suppose the price of the land should only be going up inline with inflation, otherwise in a decade or three a crate of avocados will be the same price as a small terrace (exaggerating of course).

I was hoping to pick up a do-it-upper for cheap in South Belfast, but even those are going at premium prices now. I remember one particular property in Stranmillis, it needed pretty much the whole thing renovated, the toilet smelled like something crawled into the plumbing and died. Anyway, the asking price was already pretty steep, but not surprising for the area - last I heard it was £40k above asking with an active bidding war, so who knows what it ended up at. I had a good few experiences similar to this, so it wasn't a one-off occurrence. Whether the property is pristine condition or rotting away, it does not appear to phase buyers... that might be only my experience though.

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On 11/10/2017 at 2:04 PM, GEN_X said:

I've been looking at Property News for the past 7 months and there is nothing but mold ridden over priced dumps with epc ratings so low you could hang beef.

The worst offenders being Templeton Robinson and J John Minnis  these two are over pricing everything and anything they come across by Twenty to seventy five thousand pound .

 

New builds are no better Simon Breen  and reeds rains love nothing more at the minute than there 1100 square foot open plan three or four bedroom's net even hardwired for the internet. 

What sort of parents let there kids buy these things

 

Then there's  Roger and Brown favored by the MP and old money the amount of dumps they have inst even funny that tip they just sold for a few million must have been to someone who has never worked for there money because if they had they would have known better.  The only good thing about them at the minute is middle class owners are starting to  think these guys sell big houses they must be the guys for me and in turn there homes are being listing between seven and ten thousand pound less than the one next door in order to sell fast and get into the area.

Agree with all of this. Belfast is full of expensive shitholes that would be total money pits.

I don't know if things will actually fall, but I think they need to in order to reach fair prices.

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2 hours ago, whome_yesyou said:

That's a fair point, I suppose the price of the land should only be going up inline with inflation, otherwise in a decade or three a crate of avocados will be the same price as a small terrace (exaggerating of course).

I was hoping to pick up a do-it-upper for cheap in South Belfast, but even those are going at premium prices now. I remember one particular property in Stranmillis, it needed pretty much the whole thing renovated, the toilet smelled like something crawled into the plumbing and died. Anyway, the asking price was already pretty steep, but not surprising for the area - last I heard it was £40k above asking with an active bidding war, so who knows what it ended up at. I had a good few experiences similar to this, so it wasn't a one-off occurrence. Whether the property is pristine condition or rotting away, it does not appear to phase buyers... that might be only my experience though.

I'e said this before but I'm tempted to STR in the not too distant future. I bought in BT9. I'm shocked at the ridiculous rises. It's reminds me of 2005. I just can't see it going on for too long. An external event will collapse the lot. I'm tempted to bank the not inconsiderable equity and let some mug take the hit when prices collapse again. People see buying a house like buying a car. If they can make they payments at .5% interest rates it's all good. Except those payments aren't fixed for 25 years ( the actual term is probably closer to 35 years). Plus they have no pension. The current situation is absolutely mental. 

My mortgage payments are around 10% of my salary. I could lose my income and be grand. No holiday this year but grand. How some people live so close to the edge, PCP to the eyeballs and mortgages to the hilt on average wage I'll never know. 

 

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1 hour ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I'e said this before but I'm tempted to STR in the not too distant future. I bought in BT9. I'm shocked at the ridiculous rises. It's reminds me of 2005. I just can't see it going on for too long. An external event will collapse the lot. I'm tempted to bank the not inconsiderable equity and let some mug take the hit when prices collapse again. People see buying a house like buying a car. If they can make they payments at .5% interest rates it's all good. Except those payments aren't fixed for 25 years ( the actual term is probably closer to 35 years). Plus they have no pension. The current situation is absolutely mental. 

My mortgage payments are around 10% of my salary. I could lose my income and be grand. No holiday this year but grand. How some people live so close to the edge, PCP to the eyeballs and mortgages to the hilt on average wage I'll never know.

Yup. People seem to have very short term memories i.e. how cheap things were only 4 years ago. I know of an apartment for sale at £175K that was £110K 4 years back. East Belfast houses have gone mental, loads of semi's in what were working class/lower middle class areas when I was a kid that are now over a quarter of a mill.

If you've got a nice place in BT9, it might do you no harm to list it at a kite-flying price. All it takes is one chump with a big fat inheritance and you could do very very well out of it.

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6 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I agree with the majority of that. 2013 and the credit loosening has caused the increases we see today. The various schemes supporting literally thousands of transactions, the antithesis of a free market, is also supporting prices further up the ponzi pyramid. 

I don't necessarily agree with the housing raising with inflation. IMO old housing prices should be deflating as building technology improves costs decrease and maintenance due to age increases servicing costs. If it was a free market equilibrium would see prices decrease in real terms over time. But of course it isn't and they don't because the Tories aren't really free market supporters. Not when it effects votes. 

I don't believe the mortgage market is anything like the open system for lending in 2005 to 2007 and it is much tighter now which is a good thing.

Apart from Co-ownership, which is limited to people on a certain income level, I don't believe there are various schemes in NI which support transactions. There are in England with Help to Buy up to £600k but that scheme is not available here nor do I believe it is needed here.

I have also often wondered how people can compare a 80 year old house with a new or nearly new one and expect both of them to have similar prices. But if people are prepared to pay the same for an 80 year old house then that is what the industry has to compete with. The resale market is 80% of the housing market and therefore sets the prices to the 20% of the market that is newbuild.

Unfortunately build costs have not deflated. Three main factors here; build cost is approximately 60% labour and that keeps increasing (good inflation). Building regulations and indeed customer expectations keep increasing (also good) but this increase is for improved levels of insulation, air tightness etc which push up costs. An increasing part of the overall construction cost is the cost of contributions to road, sewers and other 'community demands as well as the increased impact of environmental issues. All good but costing perhaps £10k-£20k and upwards a house.

In the future such improvements as large scale 3D printing and modular construction could help to offset some of these other add on costs. Modular housing is available now and would certainly be employed whole scale if it was cheaper but it is currently more expensive. 

 

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I'm glad I have found this forum and that I'm not the only one thinking what is going on

I really hope that prices do come down across the board It would give everyone a chance to be happy and enjoy life. 

I do think if the price is going to come down it will be within three to nine months simply because the price of new builds are getting close to the price of a house in Helen's bay

Look at this

These have been built on the Newtownards to Bangor carriageway and the price is serious.

https://www.propertynews.com/New-Homes/Newtownards/36126/Rosevale-Park-Bangor-Road-Newtownards-Newtownards/

Now here is good big house in Newtownards were you could get three of the above in the back garden for less

https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Newtownards/VPNPNC0081/9-Strangford-Gate/431400579/Page5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

I don't believe the mortgage market is anything like the open system for lending in 2005 to 2007 and it is much tighter now which is a good thing.

Apart from Co-ownership, which is limited to people on a certain income level, I don't believe there are various schemes in NI which support transactions. There are in England with Help to Buy up to £600k but that scheme is not available here nor do I believe it is needed here.

I have also often wondered how people can compare a 80 year old house with a new or nearly new one and expect both of them to have similar prices. But if people are prepared to pay the same for an 80 year old house then that is what the industry has to compete with. The resale market is 80% of the housing market and therefore sets the prices to the 20% of the market that is newbuild.

Unfortunately build costs have not deflated. Three main factors here; build cost is approximately 60% labour and that keeps increasing (good inflation). Building regulations and indeed customer expectations keep increasing (also good) but this increase is for improved levels of insulation, air tightness etc which push up costs. An increasing part of the overall construction cost is the cost of contributions to road, sewers and other 'community demands as well as the increased impact of environmental issues. All good but costing perhaps £10k-£20k and upwards a house.

In the future such improvements as large scale 3D printing and modular construction could help to offset some of these other add on costs. Modular housing is available now and would certainly be employed whole scale if it was cheaper but it is currently more expensive. 

 

I take all that on-board BVI and respect your expert knowledge. I'm coming at this from a different angle I guess. I understand what you're saying about labour costs but that only explains part of it. Essentially if labour supply is limited and driving up costs then the demand side should be coming in and coming up with cheaper alternatives. That modular prefab should be cheaper than employing dozens of trades. 

Material costs should be negligible. Afterall bricks, plaster, wires etc have been around for centuries. Technology should have reduced the cost of these. 

 

Inflating land prices is obviously having a massive effect. 

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4 hours ago, whome_yesyou said:

That's a fair point, I suppose the price of the land should only be going up inline with inflation.

Unfortunately for us all it dosn't work that way. Like most things in the open market the price is controlled by supply and demand. Whilst there is always demand for land it has to be 'effective demand' to effect price i.e. demand backed up with cash/and or debt to complete the purchase. Land prices fell by 80% during the crash as the effective demand dissipated.

There is limited (reduced) level of effective demand returning to the market. Whilst the banks are still not funding developers/builders to acquire land there is still people out there to fund by other means. With this reduced level of demand you would think that the price of land should fall but in comes our wonderful government and planning system. Tens of millions of pounds was spend on BMAP over 15 years only for it to been thrown out. The current adopted plan for Belfast is 1992, 2001 for Lisburn and 1982 for Antrim! Therefore there is a chronic shortage of development land in the main built up areas. Even when you manage to acquire a piece of it we have a 70 week average planning duration compared to a 13 week planning duration in England (for major applications-50 units and above).

For the price of land to only go up with inflation supply of both zoned land and planninng approvals would need to keep up with need. If the local area plan of zoned land is dates 1992 or even 1982 then we are in a bad place.

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2 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

Unfortunately for us all it dosn't work that way. Like most things in the open market the price is controlled by supply and demand. Whilst there is always demand for land it has to be 'effective demand' to effect price i.e. demand backed up with cash/and or debt to complete the purchase. Land prices fell by 80% during the crash as the effective demand dissipated.

There is limited (reduced) level of effective demand returning to the market. Whilst the banks are still not funding developers/builders to acquire land there is still people out there to fund by other means. With this reduced level of demand you would think that the price of land should fall but in comes our wonderful government and planning system. Tens of millions of pounds was spend on BMAP over 15 years only for it to been thrown out. The current adopted plan for Belfast is 1992, 2001 for Lisburn and 1982 for Antrim! Therefore there is a chronic shortage of development land in the main built up areas. Even when you manage to acquire a piece of it we have a 70 week average planning duration compared to a 13 week planning duration in England (for major applications-50 units and above).

For the price of land to only go up with inflation supply of both zoned land and planninng approvals would need to keep up with need. If the local area plan of zoned land is dates 1992 or even 1982 then we are in a bad place.

If demand us low and supply is higher then prices decrease BVI. Limited availability of credit should be causing prices to fall not rise. Hoarding of development land just decreased supply and increases prices. There this be a tax on land hoarding. Thats the sort of intervention that needed. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I take all that on-board BVI and respect your expert knowledge. I'm coming at this from a different angle I guess. I understand what you're saying about labour costs but that only explains part of it. Essentially if labour supply is limited and driving up costs then the demand side should be coming in and coming up with cheaper alternatives. That modular prefab should be cheaper than employing dozens of trades. 

Material costs should be negligible. Afterall bricks, plaster, wires etc have been around for centuries. Technology should have reduced the cost of these. 

 

Inflating land prices is obviously having a massive effect. 

I know where you are coming from about building materials being about for 1,000's of years and surely inefficiencies should be coming to play today.

But when you think about if a brick is a piece of clay heated to so many hundred degrees for a day or two and after packaging transported across the country to site. the two major costs here are the massive heating of the kinnals and the transport costs. both of those costs are massive. 

Modular off site construction will become the norm. Either it will get cheaper or , and more likely, traditional construction will get so expensive that the modular solution is the most economic solution.

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BelfastVL, as far as I know BMAP was adopted three years ago. Though the document is probably out of date by now, it didn't seem to put the brakes on the several hundred new houses and several square miles of development in Lisburn, for example.

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27 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

I don't believe the mortgage market is anything like the open system for lending in 2005 to 2007 and it is much tighter now which is a good thing.

Apart from Co-ownership, which is limited to people on a certain income level, I don't believe there are various schemes in NI which support transactions. There are in England with Help to Buy up to £600k but that scheme is not available here nor do I believe it is needed here.

I have also often wondered how people can compare a 80 year old house with a new or nearly new one and expect both of them to have similar prices. But if people are prepared to pay the same for an 80 year old house then that is what the industry has to compete with. The resale market is 80% of the housing market and therefore sets the prices to the 20% of the market that is newbuild.

Unfortunately build costs have not deflated. Three main factors here; build cost is approximately 60% labour and that keeps increasing (good inflation). Building regulations and indeed customer expectations keep increasing (also good) but this increase is for improved levels of insulation, air tightness etc which push up costs. An increasing part of the overall construction cost is the cost of contributions to road, sewers and other 'community demands as well as the increased impact of environmental issues. All good but costing perhaps £10k-£20k and upwards a house.

In the future such improvements as large scale 3D printing and modular construction could help to offset some of these other add on costs. Modular housing is available now and would certainly be employed whole scale if it was cheaper but it is currently more expensive. 

 

 

27 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

I don't believe the mortgage market is anything like the open system for lending in 2005 to 2007 and it is much tighter now which is a good thing.

Apart from Co-ownership, which is limited to people on a certain income level, I don't believe there are various schemes in NI which support transactions. There are in England with Help to Buy up to £600k but that scheme is not available here nor do I believe it is needed here.

I have also often wondered how people can compare a 80 year old house with a new or nearly new one and expect both of them to have similar prices. But if people are prepared to pay the same for an 80 year old house then that is what the industry has to compete with. The resale market is 80% of the housing market and therefore sets the prices to the 20% of the market that is newbuild.

Unfortunately build costs have not deflated. Three main factors here; build cost is approximately 60% labour and that keeps increasing (good inflation). Building regulations and indeed customer expectations keep increasing (also good) but this increase is for improved levels of insulation, air tightness etc which push up costs. An increasing part of the overall construction cost is the cost of contributions to road, sewers and other 'community demands as well as the increased impact of environmental issues. All good but costing perhaps £10k-£20k and upwards a house.

In the future such improvements as large scale 3D printing and modular construction could help to offset some of these other add on costs. Modular housing is available now and would certainly be employed whole scale if it was cheaper but it is currently more expensive. 

 

The mortgage market is tighter than 2006 without a doubt. But that doesn't mean it's tight. 4.9 times household income is credit bubble territory not prudent lending. 

 

Co-ownership supports 1000 apprx transactions directly. Aroud 5% of the market. That's an impressive figure. No doubt about it. That 5% could be much higher where chains are involved. 

 

Up until recently we had HTB guarantee. There' another 600 transactions a year that wouldn't be in the market. 

 

We now have Co ownership rent to buy helping the developers. Effectivey HTB by another name. 

 

This is not a free market. 

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1 minute ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

If demand us low and supply is higher then prices decrease BVI. Limited availability of credit should be causing prices to fall not rise. Hoarding of development land just decreased supply and increases prices. There this be a tax on land hoarding. Thats the sort of intervention that needed. 

 

 

As I said demand has increased but it is still lower than if was 'back in the day'. However they are all chasing the same few sites as there is little of no supply and the planning system further throttles that supply getting to the market.

Land hording dosn't really exist in Northern Ireland. (would love examples so I can go and chase them). There are lots of sites like shrocco and west Lisburn that are in planning after been purchased out of administration but the owners want those sites started as soon as possible. Buying land to hoard is simply too risky.  

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BelfastVL  you seem to know what your talking about.  Do you think prices will fall come down twenty to thirty thousand across the board like England or are we set to skip this dip?

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3 minutes ago, rattusrattus said:

BelfastVL, as far as I know BMAP was adopted three years ago. Though the document is probably out of date by now, it didn't seem to put the brakes on the several hundred new houses and several square miles of development in Lisburn, for example.

BMAP was declared unlawful after a JR taken out by one of the government departments. In planning terms it dosen't exist. Most of the land I think you are referring to in Lisburn were zoned in the earlier 2001 Lisburn Area Plan

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3 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

BMAP was declared unlawful after a JR taken out by one of the government departments. In planning terms it dosen't exist. Most of the land I think you are referring to in Lisburn were zoned in the earlier 2001 Lisburn Area Plan

Ah NI the land of the Judicial Review. 

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6 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

 

The mortgage market is tighter than 2006 without a doubt. But that doesn't mean it's tight. 4.9 times household income is credit bubble territory not prudent lending. 

 

Co-ownership supports 1000 apprx transactions directly. Aroud 5% of the market. That's an impressive figure. No doubt about it. That 5% could be much higher where chains are involved. 

 

Up until recently we had HTB guarantee. There' another 600 transactions a year that wouldn't be in the market. 

 

We now have Co ownership rent to buy helping the developers. Effectivey HTB by another name. 

 

This is not a free market. 

HTB here was extremely limited. the grantee you refer to was to be given by local government and they refused.

Co-ownership is extremely helpful housing families that would otherwise have to be supported by social housing or the PRS.

Rent to Buy is a pilot for 95 houses. I like the concept as the majority of the rent is returned to the renter for a deposit if they choose to buy.

The changes to the tax treatment of the BTL market has effectively removed them from the newhome purchasers. I guess that more than compensates for rent to buy or even Co-ownership but may have a more severe impact on the market in a few years time.

 

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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