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HPI is a global trend. Will the UK be the first crash?

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Rampant HPI vs wage growth is occurring in most major metro areas across the world over last 5 years, and most countries have similar QE and ZIRP policies.

The UK is very average mid table in HPI terms. Plenty of cities above London in annualised gains.  So presumably if there was a major crash of 50% or whatever, this would need to happen globally. The banks are all international after all. And UK probably won't lead the way.  

So why the fascination with UK centric policies? It seems entirely out of the UK's hands. 

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Certainly in 2008 it was a global event but what about earlier crashes 90s/80s?

Would agree that it may be out of the boe control etc but the policies the gov and zirp etc have certainly not done anything to help any rebalance, and has widely discussed only prolonged/ heightened any imbalance.

 

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The UK saw a significant correction between 2008-11. The likes of China, Canada and Australia did not. It stands to reason that house prices will crash there before we see another leg down here. Steve Keen has identified seven major economies likely to experience a house price crash and financial crisis before 2020. In aggregate these economies are approximately the same size as the US so the shock to the global economy is likely to be of a similar order to the GFC.

 

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UBS said London was the second most unaffordable, defying gravity  RE market on the planet. They have been warning about it for a few years now. 

UK has Brexit for itself that may tilt the scales. 

Btw Canada house crash is to be confirmed, NZ is about to remove their marginal buyer, QE is being phased out in the US, interest rate on the rise. Oh my! It is not going to be pretty

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10 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

Posted on another thread - see second half.

Very accurate and well explained.  S*d it then - if we can only choose between two types of socialism, I'll vote Corbyn! 

 

Edited by Fence

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19 minutes ago, Fence said:

Very accurate and well explained.  S*d it then - if we can only choose between two types of socialism, I'll vote Corbyn! 

 

At least he's offering what he's offering, as opposed to the 1984 duckspeak we get from the Tories.

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Some cities have started correcting around the world this year but not whole countries, Garth Turner has observed Toronto at length on his blog - detached family homes are down 20%  yoy (peak) with further to go due to tightened mortgage regs coming in Jan. Prices still stratospheric mind..

Auckland is down but only marginally at this point. The new Labor PM is talking tough on foreign buyers, will be interesting to see if that helps the market correct further, again prices are bonkers regardless..

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12 hours ago, Freki said:

UBS said London was the second most unaffordable, defying gravity  RE market on the planet. They have been warning about it for a few years now. 

UK has Brexit for itself that may tilt the scales. 

Btw Canada house crash is to be confirmed, NZ is about to remove their marginal buyer, QE is being phased out in the US, interest rate on the rise. Oh my! It is not going to be pretty

Except sensible estimates of uk interest rate cycle peak are at 2% in 2019

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11 minutes ago, Si1 said:

At least he's offering what he's offering, as opposed to the 1984 duckspeak we get from the Tories.

.......I'll even hold up the bullet proof glass if/when he stands up to his neo-liberal Blairite "colleagues" (the true implications of the Blairite years now really coming to the fore). 

I was going to vote for for him post Brexit to ensure the UK does not get fully turned into a neo-liberal aircraft carrier.  No point waiting.

Ideally, I would like a regulated liberal free market party but......

Edited by Fence

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1 minute ago, Fence said:

.

Ideally, I would like a regulated liberal free market party but......

Vince?

Fancy a Labour-Lib Dem coalition?

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1 hour ago, GreenDevil said:

Nah Liberals are finished. They are a non party.

Vote socialism for the Rich (Cons) or vote for a crash. VOTE CORBYN.

 

@Fence

 

 

The HPI trend is a Metropolitan trend. The biggest winners are leftish Metro voters that have gained from global migration and pressures on their land. I'm not expecting anything from the left, doubt they will want to diss their key supporters the  Islington and Cambridge set. This is the party of Corbyn, Thornberry and Toynbee all property millionaires keen to destroy all other asset classes.

Property would be the only man left standing in a left wing administration just as it was in Weimar Germany and Peronist Argentina. Savings were destroyed in short order.

The Tories are as bad tbf, also a Blairite party of the Metro elite property owning class. The shires are unrepresented hence the Brexit backlash.

Edited by crashmonitor

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  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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