Property price crash could happen within months: Daily Mail

[thewig]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2720949/Property-price-crash-happen-months-sellers-finally-outstrip-buyers-theyll-continue-rise-year.html

 

but prices will continue to go up for exactly twelve months before they go down. makes sense?

[ARENAPUA]

this is from 2014

[thewig]

woah that was a hell of a trip man, what did I miss? 

 

so it is, nothing to see here, clicked on a link in bing for that story when I typed housepricecrash and I immediately clocked the date at the top of the page thinking it was the date of the article hot off the press! 

[thewig]

mods feel free to delete thread

[newgi]

Yes, I'm pretty sure we celebrated this back in 2014.

[dgul]

They're like me -- predictions are 100% accurate, only the timing is out.

[65243]

I'm guessing that the Daily Mail will have to be unusually careful as to how it reports a property crash now. 

[adarmo]

What's that old joke now.....

 

HPC successfully predicted 25 of the last 1 crashes.

[flb]

The crash has been a few months away since 2011. 

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

3 minutes ago, flb said:

The crash has been a few months away since 2011. 

It’s waiting till you convert to btl.

[flb]

Just now, EmmaRoid said:

It’s waiting till you convert to btl.

Do you think I should go for HMO as well?

 

[Insane]

This is my first post on this site but I have been lurking and reading HPC for a while now . 

From what I read people here have been predicting a crash for years and it has not happened , the mantra now is that it is not If  but when it will happen and that it will happen. I do agree with that sentiment. I have chosen Insane for my profile name as that matches what I conclude the current property market to be.

I don't know that  much about the market in areas outside of where I was born , raised and have lived for my entire life ( I am 54 ) however this area East London and Essex is just Insane. When we live with a person we do not realise how they change and age over a period of years as we do not notice the slow changes that add up to the difference in that person 30+ years later. It is only when we look at old photos we can see how different they were back in the past. I think many people do not realise how different the price of property is and how much it has gone up as they never go back and compare the prices of property 25 or 30 years ago as they would with a photo of a person. Maybe that is why so many otherwise rational people still do not understand how out of kilter the price of property has become and young people who were not about in the past have nothing to compare todays prices with. 

I was 22 when I purchased my first home , a very basic new build ( no shiny kitchen and swanky en-suite) in Zone 4 East London. I was single and worked in manufacturing , I went on the night shift for the premium pay to afford it. My block was full of young singles and couples like me doing ordinary jobs and able to buy our homes. It was not easy but obtainable. 

I felt very comfortable when that place doubled in price in the 30 months leading up to the 1988 Bubble I then watched the bubble burst and 7 years later the same flats in that block where back to their 1986 price. Prior to the 1988 Bubble bursting we had all the hype , talk and reasons why property would never drop. But as we all know drop it did. 

I have watched this Insane market for the last 30 years and am convinced the Bubble will burst It is not different this time , the only difference this time is the amount of debt is much larger than in 1988. Other than that it is the same and it will burst. 

I could write for pages and pages on what I have seen over the last 3 decades , but for a first post I will leave it here and post again later. 

 

 

[flb]

Just now, Insane said:

From what I read people here have been predicting a crash for years and it has not happened , the mantra now is that it is not If  but when it will happen and that it will happen. I do agree with that sentiment.

It's not a matter of IF or even a matter of WHEN. It's a matter of "by how much" and "how long is it going to last". Of course, the market is going to crash...eventually. The real questions are:

- how much do I stand to lose if I don't buy until it crashes? Will I be saving money if I wait or will I be losing a lot by waiting?

- when it crashes, by how much will it crash and how long will that last?

- am I playing the long game or the short game here?

To clarify, let's look at what you said

Just now, Insane said:

I felt very comfortable when that place doubled in price in the 30 months leading up to the 1988 Bubble I then watched the bubble burst and 7 years later the same flats in that block where back to their 1986 price. Prior to the 1988 Bubble bursting we had all the hype , talk and reasons why property would never drop. But as we all know drop it did. 

...so the market crashed.

How much does the same property cost now? That's the thing - it always crashes and it always spikes back up, going over what it used to be. WAY OVER. Look at a graph - as long as you can find - and check the prices. I think you'll find that the 1987 prices were a mere fraction of what they are NOW. So if I'm in it for the long game, do I stand to lose or do I stand to gain by buying or waiting?

Take renting, for example (not all of us have the luxury of being able to live with our families; some of us have to pay rent). I rented for a few years in the UK. I rented between 2012 and 2017, at an average of 900 pcm, 10800/year. That's roughly 54k I'm never going to get back. At which point do you lose more by waiting than what you stand to gain from a "crash"? Had I bought in 2013, when I was quite "sure" the crash was "around the corner", I would've bought a 2 bed flat 5 minutes away from work for 190k. In the meantime, I paid 40k+ in rent and the same flat today costs 400k. When the market crashes, that flat would have to cost ~150k in order for the wait to have been worth it (assuming I wouldn't have bought in the meantime) - and that's just to break even, not to make a profit. That's a 66% drop. Does that sound likely to you?

What I'm saying is that whether you buy or wait, you're still going to lose. The real question is which one is worse - and the answer to that depends on whether you're buying a "home for life" or just an investment you mean to flip around in a couple of years.

 

Just now, Insane said:

Maybe that is why so many otherwise rational people still do not understand how out of kilter the price of property has become and young people who were not about in the past have nothing to compare todays prices with. 

Slight correction here - (if I may still consider myself young) we know it used to be much better. Even though I was a child then (80s) I know that my parents - with mediocre jobs - were able to buy their first home - a 2 bed flat in the town centre (for peanuts, really; their monthly payment was ~15% of ONE salary and they were both working). We know it used to be so much better, but since we can't turn back time, that doesn't exactly help us in any way.

[Insane]

Hi flb

I cannot answer most of your questions as like everyone else I do not know the future , I can only say as I have this current market is insane. I am sure it will crash . 

I have predicted the crash for years and have been so wrong as it has not happened , however 10 years ago when the financial crisis first happened and I was sure it would crash I did not take into account the fake low interest rates we have had the printing of money the help to buy the bank bailouts they were all in the future and I did not know about them when I was telling younger members of my family not to buy. Also I do not know what else will happen in years to come that could hold off a crash but I am sure something will happen that will cause a crash. 

Yes you do have to weigh up the dead money from renting and would you be better off from buying even if the place you buy drops in value . Are you in London ? The first place I bought was £34,000 it doubled and then went back to its original price by the mid 90's , today they are £250,000 as I say Insane. 

East London and especially Docklands dropped a lot in the 1988 crash , I do not want to say to much but I do have an advert somewhere taken from 1993 of a Docklands block built in 1988 that was mostly repossessed and then sold off cheap by the banks the prices there were 1 beds 1988 £149,995 , 1993 £49,995 that is the 66% your talking about. I was trying to locate this advert tonight and was going to scan it in and post but I could not find it , I am sure I still have it and will find and post. Will that kind of drop happen again ? I don't know that situation was extreme as there was a lot of doddgy dealings in Docklands back in the 80's.

I stand corrected on your point of the young , many of you do know that prices were way less than now . I said that as a few times recently I have mentioned to people at work who are below 40 how much the market crashed and how low prices were and have been looked at as if I have two heads. But I do understand not all younger people have no idea.

 

[ExiledMatty]

We still have to be patient. Those who can stick it out the longest will be the most rewarded in the house price massacre.

[sideysid]

5 hours ago, flb said:

It's not a matter of IF or even a matter of WHEN. It's a matter of "by how much" and "how long is it going to last". Of course, the market is going to crash...eventually. The real questions are:

- how much do I stand to lose if I don't buy until it crashes? Will I be saving money if I wait or will I be losing a lot by waiting?

- when it crashes, by how much will it crash and how long will that last?

- am I playing the long game or the short game here?

To clarify, let's look at what you said

...so the market crashed.

How much does the same property cost now? That's the thing - it always crashes and it always spikes back up, going over what it used to be. WAY OVER. Look at a graph - as long as you can find - and check the prices. I think you'll find that the 1987 prices were a mere fraction of what they are NOW. So if I'm in it for the long game, do I stand to lose or do I stand to gain by buying or waiting?

Take renting, for example (not all of us have the luxury of being able to live with our families; some of us have to pay rent). I rented for a few years in the UK. I rented between 2012 and 2017, at an average of 900 pcm, 10800/year. That's roughly 54k I'm never going to get back. At which point do you lose more by waiting than what you stand to gain from a "crash"? Had I bought in 2013, when I was quite "sure" the crash was "around the corner", I would've bought a 2 bed flat 5 minutes away from work for 190k. In the meantime, I paid 40k+ in rent and the same flat today costs 400k. When the market crashes, that flat would have to cost ~150k in order for the wait to have been worth it (assuming I wouldn't have bought in the meantime) - and that's just to break even, not to make a profit. That's a 66% drop. Does that sound likely to you?

What I'm saying is that whether you buy or wait, you're still going to lose. The real question is which one is worse - and the answer to that depends on whether you're buying a "home for life" or just an investment you mean to flip around in a couple of years.

 

Slight correction here - (if I may still consider myself young) we know it used to be much better. Even though I was a child then (80s) I know that my parents - with mediocre jobs - were able to buy their first home - a 2 bed flat in the town centre (for peanuts, really; their monthly payment was ~15% of ONE salary and they were both working). We know it used to be so much better, but since we can't turn back time, that doesn't exactly help us in any way.

It is a matter of time, and we aren't far away. My personal prediction on these boards has always been after April next year. Like I've said before I don't expect we'll see a certain % drop across the country, rather more a median point say 2012/13 prices before the government manipulation. That could be 10% in some places and 60% in others, especially in the shitty London suburb areas that have doubled in the last few years. 

The cumulative factors of a financial deflationary environment, S24 tax returns for the clueless BTL landlords, letting fee restrictions on estate agents, stagnant property market, will all be the lead up to the downturn. 

You only have to look at new builds in the aforementioned areas to see the madness. These are in the area I grew up, but they ain't shifting and nor should they. An average 3 bed home in a shit zone 4 area for nearly 3/4 of a million? Even the mugs aren't fooled.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/property-69536831.html

 

[btd1981]

Well that house *does* have a 'private garden'.

And am I reading too much into 'garage space' vs 'garage'?

[Castlevania]

41 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

Well that house *does* have a 'private garden'.

And am I reading too much into 'garage space' vs 'garage'?

 

I'm assuming it's a garage that's too small for a car.

[thewig]

11 hours ago, Castlevania said:

 

I'm assuming it's a garage that's too small for a car.

too big for a family more like, chop it into two then its the perfect size for two families of scumbag renters

 

 

[Venger]

On 26/10/2017 at 11:30 PM, adarmo said:

What's that old joke now.....

 

HPC successfully predicted 25 of the last 1 crashes.

Yeah but you've bought now, just recently.

Here with 5-year-plans for renters to hope for wage inflation, rather than 'pain' of prices falling for owners.

And with a view that HPC is 'politically unacceptable'. 

So if it's so politically unacceptable, why the human-shielding it for owners, 5-year-plans, hope for wage-inflation, to protect your house price.

[canbuywontbuy]

On 27/10/2017 at 6:35 AM, Insane said:

When we live with a person we do not realise how they change and age over a period of years as we do not notice the slow changes that add up to the difference in that person 30+ years later. It is only when we look at old photos we can see how different they were back in the past. I think many people do not realise how different the price of property is and how much it has gone up as they never go back and compare the prices of property 25 or 30 years ago as they would with a photo of a person. Maybe that is why so many otherwise rational people still do not understand how out of kilter the price of property has become and young people who were not about in the past have nothing to compare todays prices with.

People will put up with ANYTHING if it's considered normal by society:-

• tiny houses that require double-income mortgages over 25 years+  to pay off - the "new normal"
• families renting into their mid-40s+ in private rentals - the "new normal"
• main shopping now done at Aldi/Lidl/poundshops - the "new normal"
• the atrophying of the wider economy because people are spending so much on mortgages/rent - the "new normal"
• longer and longer commutes to work (1 hr 38 mins there-and-back average in the UK currently) - the "new normal"
• buy a house, can't afford to move again - the "new normal"
• can't afford to have more than one child - the "new normal"
• 90%+ of new jobs created are part-time/low-paid/zero hour - the "new normal"
• can't afford to holiday abroad - the "new normal"
• your only child is in wraparound school care from 7AM to 6PM - the "new normal"
• students leaving uni with £30,000+ of debt - the "new normal"
• "kids" living at home well into their 30s - the "new normal"
• no money left over to save for a pension - the "new normal"
• wages rising lower than inflation - the "new normal"
• government net borrowing £60Bn+ a year  - the "new normal"
• ZIRP - the base rate was never lower than 2% between 1694 and 2009 - from March 2009 it's never been above 0.5%  - the "new normal"
• HMOs  - the "new normal"
• become a novice "casino" investor in stocks, precious metals, cryptocurrencies because banks give you zero interest on your savings  - the "new normal"
• ever-dumbed down politics that flaunt the reality of a uniparty system (doesn't matter who you vote for, the incumbent government look after big business)  - the "new normal"
• journalistic standards lowered to the point that we're actually supposed to believe that the economy isn't doing too badly, and that someone can only ever be employed or unemployed, but never ever under-employed  - the "new normal"
• an absolute obsession with housing throughout the UK simply because prices are so high - the "new normal"

 

Edited October 28, 2017 by canbuywontbuy

[hp72]

54 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

People will put up with ANYTHING if it's considered normal by society:-

• tiny houses that require double-income mortgages over 30 years+  to pay off - the "new normal"
• families renting into their mid-40s+ in private rentals - the "new normal"
• main shopping now done at Aldi/Lidl/poundshops - the "new normal"
• the atrophying of the wider economy because people are spending so much on mortgages/rent - the "new normal"
• longer and longer commutes to work (1 hr 38 mins there-and-back average in the UK currently) - the "new normal"
• buy a house, can't afford to move again - the "new normal"
• can't afford to have more than one child - the "new normal"
• 90%+ of new jobs created are part-time/low-paid/zero hour - the "new normal"
• can't afford to holiday abroad - the "new normal"
• your only child is in wraparound school care from 7AM to 6PM - the "new normal"
• students leaving uni with £50,000+ of debt - the "new normal"
• "kids" living at home well into their 30s - the "new normal"
• no money left over to save for a pension - the "new normal"
• wages rising lower than inflation - the "new normal"
• government net borrowing £60Bn+ a year  - the "new normal"
• ZIRP - the base rate was never lower than 2% between 1694 and 2009 - from March 2009 it's never been above 0.5%  - the "new normal"
• HMOs  - the "new normal"
• become a novice "casino" investor in stocks, precious metals, cryptocurrencies because banks give you zero interest on your savings  - the "new normal"
• ever-dumbed down politics that flaunt the reality of a uniparty system (doesn't matter who you vote for, the incumbent government look after big business)  - the "new normal"
• journalistic standards lowered to the point that we're actually supposed to believe that the economy isn't doing too badly, and that someone can only ever be employed or unemployed, but never ever under-employed  - the "new normal"
• an absolute obsession with housing throughout the UK simply because prices are so high - the "new normal"

 

Genius post. Deserves a thread of it's own. Couple of amendments in bold. 

[Pop321]

On 27 October 2017 at 12:35 AM, Insane said:

This is my first post on this site but I have been lurking and reading HPC for a while now . 

From what I read people here have been predicting a crash for years and it has not happened , the mantra now is that it is not If  but when it will happen and that it will happen. I do agree with that sentiment. I have chosen Insane for my profile name as that matches what I conclude the current property market to be.

I don't know that  much about the market in areas outside of where I was born , raised and have lived for my entire life ( I am 54 ) however this area East London and Essex is just Insane. When we live with a person we do not realise how they change and age over a period of years as we do not notice the slow changes that add up to the difference in that person 30+ years later. It is only when we look at old photos we can see how different they were back in the past. I think many people do not realise how different the price of property is and how much it has gone up as they never go back and compare the prices of property 25 or 30 years ago as they would with a photo of a person. Maybe that is why so many otherwise rational people still do not understand how out of kilter the price of property has become and young people who were not about in the past have nothing to compare todays prices with. 

I was 22 when I purchased my first home , a very basic new build ( no shiny kitchen and swanky en-suite) in Zone 4 East London. I was single and worked in manufacturing , I went on the night shift for the premium pay to afford it. My block was full of young singles and couples like me doing ordinary jobs and able to buy our homes. It was not easy but obtainable. 

I felt very comfortable when that place doubled in price in the 30 months leading up to the 1988 Bubble I then watched the bubble burst and 7 years later the same flats in that block where back to their 1986 price. Prior to the 1988 Bubble bursting we had all the hype , talk and reasons why property would never drop. But as we all know drop it did. 

I have watched this Insane market for the last 30 years and am convinced the Bubble will burst It is not different this time , the only difference this time is the amount of debt is much larger than in 1988. Other than that it is the same and it will burst. 

I could write for pages and pages on what I have seen over the last 3 decades , but for a first post I will leave it here and post again later. 

I was there in 1986. 18 years old bought at £28k (borrowed £18k) with massive savings, £2k from parents and earning £4214 a year. 

Sold in 1989 for £52k (repaid parents) and moved to rented because our seller had backed out but we couldn't let our own buyer down. Salary £5250  

We stopped looking for a while but when we started again could not believe the crash has happened around us. I borrowed a huge £40k on a £62k (plus £18k to renovate) purchase in our derelict Yorkshire stone Edwardian forever home in 1990/1. Salary £5554 but a pending promotion to £8250  

So at 22 years old....£80k home with £40k debt. Debt repaid by 30 in a forever home. 

I was fairly extraordinary in terms of saving (started at 11 and never stopped) but as you say it was all possible but now it just isn't.

You are right 'old sentiment' in property just seems to get forgotten. Not by the young but by everyone. 

"Houses always go up" couldn't be further from the truth.

This feels like a ridiculous bubble.  I think the falls will mirror the increases back to around 2004/5 levels. Caveat is HPI has been patchy round the UK and the falls will mirror those regional variances ie biggest falls where we have seen biggest gains. 

I have to convince my son to hold fire at the moment. £200k for a 2 up 2 down that was £120k three/four years ago is a bad buy. And these were £100k in 2003/4. Well actually I don't have to convince him not to buy because he can't afford it....but I reassure him that he will be able to soon. 

Main things I have learned from these pages is insight from others perspective, empathy for a generation priced out (not just housing), wider understanding of factors at play, there are no real winners and many interesting insights from renters, savers, thinkers and the odd troll. 

What I haven't learnt is that there will be a crash. I knew that already.?

[BadAlchemy]

Great list canbuywontbuy. How the hell did we get to the stage where all of that is now considered normal.

But I would say " People will put up with ANYTHING... until one day they just decide that they won't anymore" (see Brexit and see Trump)

[Pop321]

1 hour ago, canbuywontbuy said:

People will put up with ANYTHING if it's considered normal by society:-

• tiny houses that require double-income mortgages over 25 years+  to pay off - the "new normal"
• families renting into their mid-40s+ in private rentals - the "new normal"
• main shopping now done at Aldi/Lidl/poundshops - the "new normal"
• the atrophying of the wider economy because people are spending so much on mortgages/rent - the "new normal"
• longer and longer commutes to work (1 hr 38 mins there-and-back average in the UK currently) - the "new normal"
• buy a house, can't afford to move again - the "new normal"
• can't afford to have more than one child - the "new normal"
• 90%+ of new jobs created are part-time/low-paid/zero hour - the "new normal"
• can't afford to holiday abroad - the "new normal"
• your only child is in wraparound school care from 7AM to 6PM - the "new normal"
• students leaving uni with £30,000+ of debt - the "new normal"
• "kids" living at home well into their 30s - the "new normal"
• no money left over to save for a pension - the "new normal"
• wages rising lower than inflation - the "new normal"
• government net borrowing £60Bn+ a year  - the "new normal"
• ZIRP - the base rate was never lower than 2% between 1694 and 2009 - from March 2009 it's never been above 0.5%  - the "new normal"
• HMOs  - the "new normal"
• become a novice "casino" investor in stocks, precious metals, cryptocurrencies because banks give you zero interest on your savings  - the "new normal"
• ever-dumbed down politics that flaunt the reality of a uniparty system (doesn't matter who you vote for, the incumbent government look after big business)  - the "new normal"
• journalistic standards lowered to the point that we're actually supposed to believe that the economy isn't doing too badly, and that someone can only ever be employed or unemployed, but never ever under-employed  - the "new normal"
• an absolute obsession with housing throughout the UK simply because prices are so high - the "new normal"

 

Agree this is a great post. 

I hope all these 'new normals' are as I have seen in the past....where suddenly like the emperor clothes there is a realisation and it become 'unacceptable'. Hope...not expect. 

The student debt thing is madness as the the desire for mass university degrees.

The commute a nonsense with conference calls/web cams available (I have 3 bases in England but work 9 days a fortnight from a local office....but I accept that costs me a promotion or two). 

Politics - are you left, right or liberal in your views? "Not sure what that means but I like that man with the crazy blonde hair who headbutted a German in the knackers during that charity football game."

Interest rates....biggest manipulation in history. Up soon....but years of below 2% still to come.

X Factor and strictly come dancing to mute the masses. Stop them thinking. Big tellies, smart phones and cheap credit. Stop them thinking. 

Now going to check my tap water for sedatives and testosterone reducing chemicals. Wouldn't surprise me.  

Super insightful post ??

 

Edited October 28, 2017 by Pop321