Everything's great.

[knock out johnny]

3 hours ago, Simhadri said:

You are wrong mate. People said the same about Brexit, it will NEVER happen, Trump will NEVER win.

I would rather trust the word of some count in this forum than some self proclaimed expert from CityA.M.

I stopped trusting media since Brexit referendum.

Last 18 months clearly shows people defying media propaganda, EU Ref, Trump, Corbyn

 Go and google Cambridge Analytica

[Houdini]

2 hours ago, Nationalist said:

Everything looks good because of immigration. More people means more people employed, and a higher GDP. Immigration also forces up house prices which causes mewing and stimulates the economy artificially.

Real wages have been stagnant for a decade. Wages adjusted for house prices have fallen off a cliff.

Wages adjusted for inflation have fallen a fair whack - they haven't kept pace with prices.... As for house prices it depends where you live - house prices here are at 2004 levels in £ terms and still feel overpriced....

And I say that as someone who earns well over the local median wage

Edited October 25, 2017 by Houdini

[Venger]

2 hours ago, FridayThirteenth said:

What are people who post on here doing to beat the rigged game? Serious question? At what point will you all be happy?

Not all house owners are hoping for eternal price rises. They don't benefit anyone except downsizers really.

I own and I'd like prices to drop to make it easier to buy somewhere bigger. However I'm glad we did decide to buy and haven't rented for the last 10 years because we have paid a lot less on mortgage payments then rent, have paid down our mortgage and have capital to put towards the next property, and have been able to renovate our current place to exactly how we like it. 

I don't think that makes me delusional or selfish or any such thing as that. It's just that we saved our 10% and bought in 2007 at the time when many were (rightly) saying the bubble would burst. It did, but we are still better off that we bought instead of holding off.

I have a lot of sympathy for those that have not been able to buy, many of my friends fall into that category. A gentle lowering of prices combined with a rise in wages would be the best case scenario to me.

Actively wishing for a 50% crash that would put huge swathes of people into financial dire straights and potentially losing their homes just so another load of people can then buy the houses seems pretty selfish to me. Not everyone who would lose out would have been stupid and over leveraged. Many will be people who saved for a long time and bought at a reasonable LTV. 

But I guess it doesn't fit the narrative of stupid selfish homeowners that is perpetuated on here.

 

"Pity the homeowner" in event of any HPC.... read it for years pal.   And as you helpfully point out, many have bought for reasonable LTV. 

House prices falling is not death.  Either is negative equity.  Prices going up is my negative equity in a way, along with no equity built up with rent I pay to my multi-millionaire older landlord with x5 houses, each worth £375,000 - £500,000 in this market.

Human shielding it, to focus on few with big mortgages, vs all the millions of owners sat on £Trillions of wealth / and BTLers £1Trillion+ of equity too, vs decades of HPI and renters paying up to them.

You have your position.  Everyone in market has to make a choice (although it's imposed on many of them when only can afford to rent vs these prices/their incomes... by what others have been prepared to pay to push up the cost of house prices - and those others are not 'to blame' but are fully responsible for their market choices in outbidding their priced out renter neighbours.  They are not the innocents.  

Reasonable LTV.... so no real hardship if prices fall.  Just loss of mad-gainz... but meaning many more others can afford to buy, if prices fall.  Yet casting us as 'pretty selfish' for wanting homes at better value on renter side, in a market of adults, who like you, made your own choices.  You can come here claiming yourself better for owning vs renting as many of us have done 10+ years (and telling how it's been financially/lifestyle great for you.  Good for you, but it isn't all about you.

Quote

LC1:  Venger, may I suggest that take a page out of Eric Pebble's book and adopt this as your sig:
NO INNOCENTS! ONLY MARKET PARTICIPANTS OUTBIDDING RENTER SAVERS.

 

Quote

We cannot have a housing market where there is no downside to paying too much, that way lies madness. If these people paid too much and were relying on calm economic waters forever so that they could build up some equity and trade up, f**k 'em. Houses are for living in. Taking on debt is about making and keeping promises.

 

On 26/05/2016 at 11:10 AM, Neverwhere said:

.........What is horrendous is the current housing market.

The large percentage of younger people who are priced out and forced into renting against their will now - with all of the substandard accommodation and insecurity of tenure that implies - as the result of actions taken by other people is, as Venger rightly suggests, of more moral concern than the comparatively small percentage of the population who might hypothetically end up back renting themselves (which is ultimately the worst that is likely to happen to them) as a result of choosing, of their own free will, to take those actions in the first place and everybody else be d@mned.

A house price crash would just be that horrendousness coming to an end.

Mostly it would just be ego-hit to those with huge levels of equity.   Many owners seem to want to project themselves, or other owners, as beautiful innocents, pity the homeowner, and renters not worth a damn.

Quote

It's more like saying you feel sorry for someone who has taken risky financial decisions and bid up the price of housing and is currently enjoying that position and might - but will not necessarily - suffer for it in the future, whilst totally failing to mention all of the people who their actions have helped to price out and who are actually suffering as a result now.

The two are intrinsically interlinked.

 

Edited October 25, 2017 by Venger

[Venger]

On 30/03/2016 at 12:30 PM, Neverwhere said:

......The idea of people as objects with no ability to make choices of their own, of adults who can't be allowed to make their own decisions or take responsibility for their own actions, is dystopian in the extreme. How could a society which regarded people in this manner do anything other than move towards a system of rigorous and all-pervading control over the the populace at large in order to counteract our apparent inability to think for ourselves?

 

On 30/03/2016 at 12:12 PM, LC1 said:

This is the crux of it. There is no sleight of hand, no deception. People walk willingly into such things with their eyes open (no excuse if not).

Turns out you made a bad decision? Life lessons are hard sometimes, but you'll surely be more aware of potential downside risks next time. End of story.

 

On 12/03/2017 at 1:02 PM, Little Frank said:

If you want to buy and are able to buy (for your lifetime) then buy if you want. In 30,50,70 years it won't matter much when. If you want to rent, then rent. That's a choice. Make the choice then accept it. 

If you want to buy and are able to buy but choose not to then accept you've made that choice voluntarily. If your failure to time the market doesn't work out for you, that's a consequence of your own decision. Since humans can't time markets it's probably you will lose out in the long run. Oh well. You ought not blame others for your decision. It was your decision, not theirs. If they choose to have sympathy for you, then lucky you, but that is up to them, not you.

(^ From a HPIer) I know... 9+ years of reading about pity the homeowner.  

9+ years of more rent paid out.  9+ years of seeing prices rise 40% above 2007 levels of 'pity the homeowner'.

Yet still people tipping up claiming renter-savers are selfish... "shame on renter-savers for wanting better affordability for their families"  / "Human shield vs HPC"

 

On 10/03/2017 at 7:57 PM, Beary McBearface said:

Even with a distortion it is still a market. If people think the distortion is permanent and immutable, then in exactly what sense is it a distortion and not just a fixed feature of the market? Regardless of whether they are informed or ignorant, people buy houses because they think it is the wisest thing to do with their money, just as others do not - for the same reason.   ................

Quote

My reading is that he makes the important point that people need to own their decisions.  People want to own their decisions when they go well and sell on the responsibility when things go badly.   For some weird reason pointing this out on HPC and doing so with clarity and persistence is taken by a minority of posters as inflammatory and thus inflamed they bang on about it, which of course they are at liberty to do.

 

 

On 28/02/2016 at 9:52 PM, Neverwhere said:

More people are already suffering, because of the current dislocation between house prices and wages, than will possibly suffer in a HPC.

People who own their homes outright won't suffer.

People who have borrowed sensibly in relation to their household incomes and savings buffers won't suffer.

The only people who might possibly suffer are those who have acted speculatively, whether by holding multiple properties or by borrowing unsustainably for their main residences in order to maximise their stake in the housing market.

This relatively small cohort who might possibly suffer are also the ones who are most likely to have been driving the bubble and causing the suffering of those who are, as a result, priced out and unable to own homes of their own without borrowing in a similarly reckless manner.

In so doing this relatively small cohort who might possibly suffer have ultimately caused this possibility themselves. Not only in choosing their own personal exposure to the housing market, but also in the aggregate effect of their actions on house prices. It is the build up over the course of the boom that causes the bust. The boom is the bad times. The bust is just the bad times coming to an end.

This relatively small cohort who might possibly suffer are also, currently, not suffering. In fact they are enjoying the fruits of their speculation as we speak, and many of them have been doing so for quite some time now, and may well continue to do so even in the event of a HPC, if they play their cards right.

(Venger) The fact that you are more concerned about people who are actually suffering right now as a consequences of the actions of others than you are about people who are currently very well off in relative terms but might possibly suffer at some point in the future as a consequence of their own actions, makes you a poster to admire in my opinion.

Not only moral, and honourable, but with the intelligence to understand the wider social consequences of the housing market and not have them obscured by individuals who would be put - or put themselves - before the quality of life of those who are already less well off than them.

[Venger]

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

80% more like.  When Ukraine crisis happened my Russian shares went down by 40% so I bought some more and didn't whinge about it.

 

Maybe, but only as somewhere to live, it's a bit like I how use food to eat and water to drink. I'd make money from working / business / investing etc. If house prices only ever went up with inflation I'd go for that.

I joke about this to myself that if we all saw houses just as places to live we would all have heated swimming pools, good cars etc. with the spare money in a ragingly good economy.

Couldn't work out how to buy any Russian shares in the financial crisis (think it was before Crimea).   

Made a post in the Investor forum about how Micex (Moscow Exchange... the exchange itself for listed shares) seems good value and gave my reasons for why, and it's up 50%+ since then.    When I looked at 'how to buy' shares in Russian companies, could only see ways which involved funds (and most with a minimum investment at big money), tracker-fund type things, and just a handful of associated Russia ventures (eg Raven Russia... UK listed - have warehouses in Russia at 'western level' style highly organised operations)....  PJSC MegaFon (listing in UK as well as in Russia... mobile phone carrier/internet).... and the internet provider (search engine) that was listed in on the market Netherlands (also had large gains when I last looked).  (Oh and Gazprom).   Got the view you need a specialised broker to buy direct shares in Russian companies.

You would eh (buy more into housing...inc BTL?).   That's what many market participants have done, and that's what has happened in many area.  They've taken the view of inflation+ for house prices, and doesn't matter with foreverHPI.   And it has been that way for decades.  The system (made by individuals actions) inflation+ more and more and more.  Far beyond wage inflation.  Inflation by itself (in goods) should mean people have less money to spend on houses out of wages.  Yet global inflows + BTL, + those who took on ever larger mortgages (freewill).  And many owners sat on the mad-gainz.  Many don't think house prices can fall (not enough supply.... Carney just repeating this the other day - even if some of us think house prices run on money, and continue to that... badly priced out, and many with no choice but to rent in this market.).

Also the swimming pools have been and still are going in to many a house in this foreverhpi housing market.  Iceberg basements.  Oh..."but shame on you for wanting HPC on renter-saver side" from so many others. 

Quote

None of the things you mention are supply constrained, houses are.

 

Quote

PI: Historically people could afford somewhere to live. Unfortunately, that has changed. It is not jealous to want food to eat. It is not jealous to want water to drink. Nor is it jealous to want to own the land that you live on.

 

Edited October 25, 2017 by Venger

[hurricane]

3 hours ago, FridayThirteenth said:

What are people who post on here doing to beat the rigged game? Serious question? At what point will you all be happy?

Not all house owners are hoping for eternal price rises. They don't benefit anyone except downsizers really.

I own and I'd like prices to drop to make it easier to buy somewhere bigger. However I'm glad we did decide to buy and haven't rented for the last 10 years because we have paid a lot less on mortgage payments then rent, have paid down our mortgage and have capital to put towards the next property, and have been able to renovate our current place to exactly how we like it. 

I don't think that makes me delusional or selfish or any such thing as that. It's just that we saved our 10% and bought in 2007 at the time when many were (rightly) saying the bubble would burst. It did, but we are still better off that we bought instead of holding off.

I have a lot of sympathy for those that have not been able to buy, many of my friends fall into that category. A gentle lowering of prices combined with a rise in wages would be the best case scenario to me.

Actively wishing for a 50% crash that would put huge swathes of people into financial dire straights and potentially losing their homes just so another load of people can then buy the houses seems pretty selfish to me. Not everyone who would lose out would have been stupid and over leveraged. Many will be people who saved for a long time and bought at a reasonable LTV. 

But I guess it doesn't fit the narrative of stupid selfish homeowners that is perpetuated on here.

+1

[Guest]

6 hours ago, frederico said:

People are following what is logical in a free market, nobody expected the amount of financial manipulation we have had. We still don't know what they will do going forward.

Everything is easy with hindsight. 

The correction may be just around the corner or it may never happen. What incentive is there to raise rates, it's only voters after all and they've already had too many chances to vote.

Yep. People see prices always rising and think thats a free market. Its not. Its skewed upwards. Soon it'll be skewed downwards,

[Thorn]

3 minutes ago, hurricane said:

+1

Good for you sounds like you've done well and sounds like you got a place in time to benefit from house prices going up. Good for you.

Pretty much every single homeowner I have ever met has talked about property prices going up as being a good thing. Never heard anyone ever say otherwise.

QE, HTB and the rest have now inflated prices so much that many of the rest of us might never now be able to own a home.

You ask what are we doing about it? Open to suggestions.

[Venger]

21 minutes ago, hurricane said:

+1

Aww.   Is that all you can offer.  Step it up.   Whenever HPC is feared we get the HPIers here to project us as the big bads.

Very selfish views.  That guy telling us all about how 10 years better than renting... now positioned to trade up.

Goodie for him, but also casting us on renter-saver side as selfish for wanting better housing affordability... offering up others in a market full of different housing positions as why we shouldn't want HPC.   

There's a conflict here.  "I want HPI/don't want HPC, because my side matters more than your side"... who can't afford to buy/refuse to buy at these prices.

Your buyers made their choices.  If you/they fear HPC and losing some mad-gainz, cast up a view that it will mean some (HUMAN SHIELDs) going into negative equity if HPC were to ever happen.... then sell, in this very bubbly priced market.

You can't have it both ways.

How we should not want HPC because some may be put into negative equity/financial difficulty..... NE not end of world.

Projecting HPCers on renter side as the selfish baddies.  Totally pathetic.  It's you who have the riddled with selfishness inside of you.   Always offering up view of misery for homeowners (millions of outright owners) solid LTV owners... as reason why we're the big bads on fully priced-out side.

Renters exist.  Other people exist and HPI+++ prices at these levels are hardship they carry, day to day, in a housing affordability, supply, and BTL societally destructive housing situation.

2 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

80% more like.  When Ukraine crisis happened my Russian shares went down by 40% so I bought some more and didn't whinge about it.

 

Maybe, but only as somewhere to live, it's a bit like I how use food to eat and water to drink. I'd make money from working / business / investing etc. If house prices only ever went up with inflation I'd go for that.

I joke about this to myself that if we all saw houses just as places to live we would all have heated swimming pools, good cars etc. with the spare money in a ragingly good economy.

 

I have no issues with people making money in capitalism (but agree with view about higher levels of taxation - and not everything tilted to extremes) - yet not QE/BTL housing financiasation markets.

Quote

Nice little fixer-upper! Foxtons' billionaire founder wins 10-year mega basement battle meaning his Kensington mansion will now be worth £100m

Jon Hunt is given the go-ahead after he appealed to the Planning Inspectorate
He faced opposition to plans from neighbours on Kensington's 'Billionaires' Row'
Father-of-four and wife Lois bought eight-bedroom mansion for £16m in 2005
The new 'iceberg' extension  to hold Mr Hunt's growing collection of classic cars

By Alexander Robertson For Mailonline
PUBLISHED: 22:56, 1 October 2017 | UPDATED: 09:21, 2 October 2017

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4939090/Foxtons-founder-wins-10-year-mega-basement-battle.html

 

 

Edited October 25, 2017 by Venger

[Venger]

On 24/07/2015 at 11:22 PM, hurricane said:

I for one wont be breaking out the champagne just yet.

In the 5 or so years I have been (predominantly) lurking on here I have seen so more false dawns that I have had hot dinners.

We know the housing market has a lag of a few months so I ask myself what was happening 3 months ago? Build u to the election the election. Next months flatten, and/or subsequent updates from other indexes tell a competing story.

And so what if the top end of PSL loses 10 or even 20%. That doesn't make the type of house anyone in this forum could live in any more affordable.

Interest rates are the ball game, we all should know that by now. Not the talking up of interest rates at some possible potential point in future, but the actual hiking of interest rates - the type which people feel in their pockets. Which I still see as a way off, despite what smug-chops says.

It may have an effect on prices below.

Who would buy the 3 bed £1million house, when the 4 bed nicer home has had price cut to asking £1m.

And will sure make it more affordable for some buyers.

On 06/05/2015 at 10:28 PM, hurricane said:

I have to say this site really has become rather depressing.

Like others, I came on here to explore an alternative/non-mainstream view, and initially found there were some sensible discussions and some interesting perspectives. I look around and I see mainly a bunch of people who have been on the wrong side of a trade, and its interesting to see how people deal with it.

To the forum 'legend' with 16k posts next to your name calling anyone who doesn't agree with your view on the world a troll/some other insult - you come across as a tiresome bore and this discussion would be better without your input. I bet you are real fun at dinner parties.

People like you have the arrogance to assume they know what is around the corner. Guess what, you don't have a clue - just like the rest of us. The more this forum becomes polarised towards people with your world view, the less people actually learn.

This is a great thread about exploring real-time data and anecdotes. Don't spoil it with your attitude for those of us that want to lurk and learn.

Yes of course.  HPC as depressing.  Always is from the protect mad-gainz side, and those who put up human-shields against HPC.  

HPIers who cast themselves as "the voice of reason" 

"Protect my HPI"

One has to take a view and hold to it.  Those who would put outright owners/BTLers/ - all people who were not dragged into buying, before renter-savers (with prices as they are in many areas)..."because some owners may go into negative equity" are the very selfish ones imo.  There may be no HPC.  One has to take a market view, and my market view is priced out of housing, and renting from a multi-millionaire older multiple house landlord, £400K semi-Ds all around, with homeownership levels that have plunged.

[Venger]

 

Quote

You've knocked out 150-ish posts..... Does the forum have a party line that correctly represents you even if you fail to represent yourself? My advice (I realise you didn't ask for it) is that you should set forth your own views because you want to. Imagining yourself as a voice of reason who is talking sense and making sense out of the forum is almost always a bad move.

 

 

On 02/08/2015 at 2:01 AM, Beary McBearface said:

....I feel very strongly that we need to argue forcefully and without kid gloves against idiocy and ignorance. There is some irony here. I mock myself for being a Witchfinder, but it is knowing mockery.

People tip up here and spout ignorant prejudice, and when you ask them to explain it, not defend it, explain it, then it is soon open season from them for ad hominem attacks and plain as the nose on your face bile. I've not been here long enough to know if you've ever played this particular hand - I've never seen you do it.

As I've stated plainly before, for me, this is the place where destructive idiocy "you can't go wrong with bricks and mortar", "it's always the right time to buy" is called out as nonsense. I am just past forty, the generation coming up behind me are getting crucified by this nonsense and out in the world nobody is calling it nonsense. On these boards, I get to call it nonsense and fight like an animal, armed with evidence and reason, to demonstrate it is nonsense.

.........In my opinion, these boards are a battleground, and there will be fighting. You can elect to remain aloof. As nobody can chase you off and you are unlikely to be banned, that is your prerogative.

But for those of us deprived of homes by the voice of reason tw@ts expecting us to rent from them forever, this is the f**king front line, and I fight, and I give it my best shot.

 

On 19/10/2017 at 11:57 PM, Venger said:

............And had you bought it, be an adult, for it's your own market choice, not that of your priced out renting-neighbour, and 10,000+ other would-be renters who would become homeowners at the right price point.   They don't exist to protect your position from recession/HPC - although as ACA (very intelligent) you're not going to be short of employment positions.

.........Same; for voice of reason posters who put owners before renters, and expect renters to welcome a solution where they wait for wages to catch up to affordability with house prices, renting all the while, and project HPC as something terrible.

 

[deadasadodo]

4 hours ago, FridayThirteenth said:

Actively wishing for a 50% crash that would put huge swathes of people into financial dire straights and potentially losing their homes just so another load of people can then buy the houses seems pretty selfish to me

I don't think it's especially selfish. If a crash of that magnitude happened that'd be a huge number of winners as well as a huge number of losers. A property owner saying they want prices to stay high could equally be said to be selfish, as there's plenty of people in dire financial straights right now whoes plight would be eased by prices and rents falling through the floor.

That said there's two types of wannaby homeowners wishing for a crash. The first just can't afford a house, or can't afford a place that meets their minimum needs. They're wishing for an affordable, secure place to live where they aren't subject to the whims of landlords, fair play. The second have the means to buy a house that meets their need, but don't see value in the current market. Realistically this is just the opposite side of the coin to someone wishing for huge price increaces - you place your bets (or not) and if the outcome you desire doesn't come about you've gambled and lost.  

[Venger]

21 minutes ago, deadasadodo said:

I don't think it's especially selfish. If a crash of that magnitude happened that'd be a huge number of winners as well as a huge number of losers. A property owner saying they want prices to stay high could equally be said to be selfish, as there's plenty of people in dire financial straights right now whoes plight would be eased by prices and rents falling through the floor.

That said there's two types of wannaby homeowners wishing for a crash. The first just can't afford a house, or can't afford a place that meets their minimum needs. They're wishing for an affordable, secure place to live where they aren't subject to the whims of landlords, fair play. The second have the means to buy a house that meets their need, but don't see value in the current market. Realistically this is just the opposite side of the coin to someone wishing for huge price increaces - you place your bets (or not) and if the outcome you desire doesn't come about you've gambled and lost.  

 

It's rational self-interest on renter-side to want lower prices. And let's not forget that on the Rent-Forever-Loser side of the market (some of it there for many years) - they've had nothing to do with market-prices.  They've not set these prices/values.  They have no equity.

Owners down the years bought, and in many areas, at ever higher prices - to extreme levels (imo - but not in opinion of many owners, including those who still see prices doubling again).  Their choice.  And worked out great for many.

Yet always those tipping up year-after-year (including latest guy today), firstly telling of his great position over 10 years vs renting - seeking to call renters 'selfish' and to offer up and hide behind some in the market who may have big mortgages.

Tipping in to us..... they are the ones fully riddled with horrific levels selfishness and entitlement!    Totally riddled with it.

"Pity the homeowner' - 'You renters need to put owners first.'  (With prices that have bubbled in so many areas/BTLer double down/plunging levels of homeownership.')

Look at my mad-gainz, paid down house, capital to trade up ('better than had I rented - now stop being so selfish you renters, and think of homeowners).

Quote

You did have a choice and you chose to buy at the price you did, rather than rent. At least be man enough to accept the negative consequences of this decision, should they come about.

There seems to be a certain subset of existing homeowners who are intent on trying to convince younger generations that they're horribly entitled if they think they should have the same opportunities at homeownership as their elders did. This is incredibly distasteful to say the least.

 

 

Quote

BU:  

I think the other rather insidious idea lurking in your thinking is that it is somehow a problem if somebody pays too much for a house and ends up stuck in it. When so many hard working young people are totally excluded from even having the option to purchase property expecting any sympathy for people who not only had that option but acted on it is a dog that won't hunt as far as I am concerned.

We cannot have a housing market where there is no downside to paying too much, that way lies madness. If these people paid too much and were relying on calm economic waters forever so that they could build up some equity and trade up, f**k 'em. Houses are for living in. Taking on debt is about making and keeping promises. Some people will have bad luck; we can't protect people from the vagaries of chance, the idea that we can is stupid fantasy.

 

 

 

[Arpeggio]

2 hours ago, Venger said:

Couldn't work out how to buy any Russian shares in the financial crisis (think it was before Crimea).   

Made a post in the Investor forum about how Micex (Moscow Exchange... the exchange itself for listed shares) seems good value and gave my reasons for why, and it's up 50%+ since then.    When I looked at 'how to buy' shares in Russian companies, could only see ways which involved funds (and most with a minimum investment at big money), tracker-fund type things, and just a handful of associated Russia ventures (eg Raven Russia... UK listed - have warehouses in Russia at 'western level' style highly organised operations)....  PJSC MegaFon (listing in UK as well as in Russia... mobile phone carrier/internet).... and the internet provider (search engine) that was listed in on the market Netherlands (also had large gains when I last looked).  (Oh and Gazprom).   Got the view you need a specialised broker to buy direct shares in Russian companies.

You can use ISA allowance for Stocks and Shares tax free. I use managed funds and don't invest in individual companies. For Russia I used Neptune Russia fund. Bought in 2013 (as a complete noob), bought more in 2015 and sold overall profit in late 2016. www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F0GBR05SJC

The reason I use managed funds is because risk is spread across a sector between lots of companies rather than on an individual company, and this way I can try to surf on larger overall economic trends. Places you mention like PJSC MegaFon I would have to look deeper into to know what I'd be getting into so the former suits me and the day job. That said if you have done your research there's no reason not to and I may do when looking for cheap stuff after the next crash.

Perhaps look at Hargreaves Lansdown. They aren't the only but that's one. I've sold everything now and am waiting. Only have precious metals.

 

2 hours ago, Venger said:

You would eh (buy more into housing...inc BTL?).   That's what many market participants have done, and that's what has happened in many area.  They've taken the view of inflation+ for house prices, and doesn't matter with foreverHPI.   And it has been that way for decades.  The system (made by individuals actions) inflation+ more and more and more.  Far beyond wage inflation.  Inflation by itself (in goods) should mean people have less money to spend on houses out of wages.  Yet global inflows + BTL, + those who took on ever larger mortgages (freewill).  And many owners sat on the mad-gainz.  Many don't think house prices can fall (not enough supply.... Carney just repeating this the other day - even if some of us think house prices run on money, and continue to that... badly priced out, and many with no choice but to rent in this market.).

 

Also the swimming pools have been and still are going in to many a house in this foreverhpi housing market.  Iceberg basements.  Oh..."but shame on you for wanting HPC on renter-saver side" from so many others.

 

I don't want housing to be an investment. True what you say about swimming pools but only for the 1%. without HPI would be a higher % not that everyone would want one. Swimming pools was just an example, people would be able to buy more stuff without our economy being crippled by economic rent seeking.

Being shamed for wanting an HPC? The following three things are really economically speaking the same, but as you know only one of them is seen as acceptable, even encouraged, while the other two are seen as scum.

Buying a house / land in order to profit from someone who actually needs it.

Buying concert tickets and selling them at a profit to those who want them for intended purpose (ticket tout)

Buying a domain name you don't need so you can sell it for a profit to a business that does (domain squatter)

Really no difference between the three.

[Venger]

8 hours ago, Houdini said:

It saddens me that after 12 years house prices and so the economy as a whole is as screwed as it was when I first found this site. 

The bit that concerns me is that the end result is inevitable but the balloon gets bigger daily and hence the resultant pain will be worse. 

How so...?

For who?

Every time I read such views - and I read them a lot - I can only presume that the posters are not in tune with how it already is for many people now.

Their minds mostly on owner side of things.   And owner side where millions are full of fat mad-gainz.

On 19/10/2017 at 12:27 AM, Venger said:

Disruption of lives is right now, ongoing (that's a line from a movie I think - but it is certainly so in housing market), for many on renter-saver side. 

As I told someone the other day when they said "A HPC would be brutal" -

"It's very very brutal for many priced-out renter savers right now vs these prices/BTL."

The Times (last week)

 

Quote

There is no reason why a reduction in house prices has to involve a recession or loss of jobs, (a general reduction in housing costs should in fact free up more money for the productive economy)

 

[Venger]

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

You can use ISA allowance for Stocks and Shares tax free. I use managed funds and don't invest in individual companies. For Russia I used Neptune Russia fund. Bought in 2013 (as a complete noob), bought more in 2015 and sold overall profit in late 2016. www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F0GBR05SJC

The reason I use managed funds is because risk is spread across a sector between lots of companies rather than on an individual company, and this way I can try to surf on larger overall economic trends. Places you mention like PJSC MegaFon I would have to look deeper into to know what I'd be getting into so the former suits me and the day job. That said if you have done your research there's no reason not to and I may do when looking for cheap stuff after the next crash.Perhaps look at Hargreaves Lansdown. They aren't the only but that's one. I've sold everything now and am waiting. Only have precious metals.

That's fair enough.  I did see Neptune Russia fund in my research as well.

Got you on the reason you prefer managed-funds.   It's just initial charge, ongoing fees, and management fees, put me off for some funds - and also where risks look higher (I have a few shareholdings), prefer direct exposure.  Different choices.  I don't hold any investment in Russian shares, but was simply looking at options available, so I have nothing in Megfon or anything else in Russia.

Ok that fund doesn't have high entry level (min £1000) - the JP Morgan fund (Russia) I looked did have high minimum investment threshold.

Just different investment styles.  I look to invest in good ethical things (won't touch anything like Provident Financial...my personal choice), and I like a lot about Russia (not so much the authorities / system as it is...) including seeing many Russia prank/social experiment videos on YouTube - and just noting everything around them (including seemingly rising middle-class/spend).

On 22/05/2017 at 10:14 AM, Venger said:

Investments gone bad can take time in doing research on whether to sell or hold as well.   I bought a little position in Allied Minds after the drop and keep coming back to doing more research on it, after it has fallen another 15%.  (I view it as a position which could fall to nothing but such are the risks).

What a rough ride that was (from 22/05/2017); dropped to a low of 116p, and I averaged down a bit around 125p.  Sold recently.  Although to me it was a ethical investment, backing a company involved in trying to bring new tech to the market (including challenging all the telecoms/freeing up bandwidth for next generation of internet + healthcare/medical advancement seeking).

 

 

1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

I don't want housing to be an investment. True what you say about swimming pools but only for the 1%. without HPI would be a higher % not that everyone would want one. Swimming pools was just an example, people would be able to buy more stuff without our economy being crippled by economic rent seeking.

Being shamed for wanting an HPC? The following three things are really economically speaking the same, but as you know only one of them is seen as acceptable, even encouraged, while the other two are seen as scum.

Buying a house / land in order to profit from someone who actually needs it.

Buying concert tickets and selling them at a profit to those who want them for intended purpose (ticket tout)

Buying a domain name you don't need so you can sell it for a profit to a business that does (domain squatter)

Really no difference between the three.

Swimming pools not best example (already told of my fears on HPC re swimming pools and kids, and someone told me about all the deaths in Aus due to drowning in home swimming pools).   However I now understand your main meaning and fully agree with you.

Although millions of people are involved in the 'encouraging' of it.   Millions of people seem to see it as a good thing, both those directly doing it, and as I see in many comments in newspapers.... fewer houses (because more and more houses into BTL) = their house worth more.  All-about-me.

Edited October 25, 2017 by Venger

[Venger]

1 hour ago, Venger said:

......Swimming pools not best example (already told of my fears on HPC re swimming pools and kids, and someone told me about all the deaths in Aus due to drowning in home swimming pools).   However I now understand your main meaning and fully agree with you.

 

All these Iceberg homeowners housing classic cars, or whatever else.... swimming pools..... all relies on finding buyers who want such requirements in the future.

With QE/zirp global money flows, they haven't been found out yet.

Although £mm in houses, and we get shamed on renter-saver side for wanting better housing affordability.  They are the selfish ones, holding up owners as human shields in effort to protect their positions.   It's still market.  They don't come in with 'the plight of renters if 9 years + vs HPI++++ QE' - also we have fair share of those who laugh at being on wrong side of the market too.

On 11/10/2015 at 2:06 PM, Venger said:

They're listing price of everything it seems. Anyone can spend-hard. It doesn't equal HPI+++++++++.

Aga £7,000. Kitchen bespoke hand-painted units £30,000. Calor gas tank (buried) £8,000. Gartenart natural swimming pool (£70,000): “Because we’d moved from the coast, I felt it would be nice to have a pool, so on a hot summer’s day, the family would have water, space and peace.” [..]conifers for privacy, replacement gates, paving round house in Indian sandstone (£18,000).

Too many risks for a swimming pool for families with young children imo. And don't they need cleaning and maintenance? 

 

On 11/10/2015 at 2:12 PM, Neverwhere said:

Fair point V.

£70k is in any case a bonkers price to pay for a pond!

It's good to see people discovering that just because you spend money on a property it doesn't mean you'll get it back when you sell though. It's seems like they complacently thought that they could spend anything they liked and the housing market would pay for it when they came to sell, no matter how foolhardy their spending decisions had been.

Hopefully more and more people will discover that this is not a sensible way to plan their finances.

 

On 11/10/2015 at 2:32 PM, mattyboy1973 said:

Also agree entirely. Enduring the sub-five year old phase of two of my own at the moment I wouldn't consider a house with a pool - major drawback IMO, before you even start with the maintenance etc. Having spent 10 years in Aus I am amazed at the lack of safety requirements here as well, I guess because they are so uncommon. In Aus they are/were a major cause of infant mortality and fencing regulations are now extremely stringent.

Anyway I'd call that a pond, although the same applies I guess. 70k? how?

I live in an area of W.Sussex popular with second homers, but nothing like as bad as the West Country. I guess it is simply impossible for anyone actually earning a living in those parts to even think about owning a nice place? Down here most of the locals (post-boomer) are in the new-build shoeboxes whilst the nice stuff (period, decent garden etc) is occupied a couple of weekends a year by Londoners. What a state of affairs.

 

Edited October 26, 2017 by Venger

[ExiledMatty]

12 hours ago, FridayThirteenth said:

What are people who post on here doing to beat the rigged game? Serious question? At what point will you all be happy?

Not all house owners are hoping for eternal price rises. They don't benefit anyone except downsizers really.

I own and I'd like prices to drop to make it easier to buy somewhere bigger. However I'm glad we did decide to buy and haven't rented for the last 10 years because we have paid a lot less on mortgage payments then rent, have paid down our mortgage and have capital to put towards the next property, and have been able to renovate our current place to exactly how we like it. 

I don't think that makes me delusional or selfish or any such thing as that. It's just that we saved our 10% and bought in 2007 at the time when many were (rightly) saying the bubble would burst. It did, but we are still better off that we bought instead of holding off.

I have a lot of sympathy for those that have not been able to buy, many of my friends fall into that category. A gentle lowering of prices combined with a rise in wages would be the best case scenario to me.

Actively wishing for a 50% crash that would put huge swathes of people into financial dire straights and potentially losing their homes just so another load of people can then buy the houses seems pretty selfish to me. Not everyone who would lose out would have been stupid and over leveraged. Many will be people who saved for a long time and bought at a reasonable LTV. 

But I guess it doesn't fit the narrative of stupid selfish homeowners that is perpetuated on here.

Leave the UK. Work remotely. Save money hard. Wait for a huge hpc. Buy a house outright.

[canbuywontbuy]

17 hours ago, Dreamcasting said:

I think you're depressed.

It saddens me to see people here after so many years, still with nothing to show for it - indeed, house prices are much higher now than what they were when many posters first started out here. All i'm seeing now is bitterness.

It's now time to realise that you lost. It's a corrupt manipulated old world, and logic doesn't play any part whatsoever. 

Hopefully you've emptied all of your venom sacs in that one comment.

So you see it as "winners" and "losers".  I could have bought.  I didn't buy.  I emigrated.  I chose not to play the game.  CountOfNowhere may well do the same (he's talked about it before). 

If we are to really cheapen the meaning of being a "winner" to being saddled with a huge mortgage...well, I have greater ambitions than that.  As it happens, I live in a house already paid for - possible outside of stupidly-high-house-price-UK.  No rent, no mortgage.  I saved myself £400,000+ in capital + interest repayments. 

To me, it's not about individual winners and losers. I see everybody losing with high house prices :-

• wider economy suffers because people have less money to spend once their mega-mortgage payment/rent is paid
• people just can't move home - too expensive
• lack of aspiration - why bother pushing yourself to the limit if all that does is buy you less and less of a house as each year passes? Might as well live for the moment.  Aspiration needs the oxygen of reward & possibility.

It's really sad that some people see themselves as a "winner" for merely signing up to 25 years of debt.  FFS, THAT is depressing.

 

Edited October 26, 2017 by canbuywontbuy

[chronyx]

2 hours ago, ExiledMatty said:

Leave the UK. Work remotely. Save money hard. Wait for a huge hpc. Buy a house outright.

Assuming the UK continues its current trajectory of turning into a nasty petty vindictive and vicious little runt of a country, why would anyone with the nous to emigrate then move back. House prices are comparatively  cheap in loads of other countries.

[frederico]

I think a couple of posters have been watching too much of homes under the hammer

[Pop321]

35 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Hopefully you've emptied all of your venom sacs in that one comment.

So you see it as "winners" and "losers".  I could have bought.  I didn't buy.  I emigrated.  I chose not to play the game.  CountOfNowhere may well do the same (he's talked about it before). 

If we are to really cheapen the meaning of being a "winner" to being saddled with a huge mortgage...well, I have greater ambitions than that.  As it happens, I live in a house already paid for - possible outside of stupidly-high-house-price-UK.  No rent, no mortgage.  I saved myself £400,000+ in capital + interest repayments. 

To me, it's not about individual winners and losers. I see everybody losing with high house prices :-

• wider economy suffers because people have less money to spend once their mega-mortgage payment/rent is paid
• people just can't move home - too expensive
• lack of aspiration - why bother pushing yourself to the limit if all that does is buy you less and less of a house as each year passes? Might as well live for the moment.  Aspiration needs the oxygen of reward & possibility.

It's really sad that some people see themselves as a "winner" for merely signing up to 25 years of debt.  FFS, THAT is depressing.

 

You are right. I know winners (eg my daughter) and they don't feel like winners. They can't trade up....they feel for other family members who are renting. HPI increasingly unpalatable. 

Once someone buys a house at £250k which was £90k in 2001 and £170k last year...but now has farrow and ball colours...then they should open their eyes. They have joined the 'game' and they should be prepared for that house to be worth £170k or £90k again. Venger is right - they can see the market. People aren't blind or that daft. 

I don't wish for a fall on those who have bought (BTL'ers aside)....I wish for a fall so prices are fair and open to all. If someone wishes to pay £80k (£250k - £170k) to gamble prices will stay at this level then that is their choice but I believe it's a bad one. 

Rates up next month (sentiment adjustment only), S24 and a tightening of lending/remortgaging will hopefully squeeze the speculation from this market. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Hopefully you've emptied all of your venom sacs in that one comment.

So you see it as "winners" and "losers".  I could have bought.  I didn't buy.  I emigrated.  I chose not to play the game.  CountOfNowhere may well do the same (he's talked about it before). 

If we are to really cheapen the meaning of being a "winner" to being saddled with a huge mortgage...well, I have greater ambitions than that.  As it happens, I live in a house already paid for - possible outside of stupidly-high-house-price-UK.  No rent, no mortgage.  I saved myself £400,000+ in capital + interest repayments. 

To me, it's not about individual winners and losers. I see everybody losing with high house prices :-

• wider economy suffers because people have less money to spend once their mega-mortgage payment/rent is paid
• people just can't move home - too expensive
• lack of aspiration - why bother pushing yourself to the limit if all that does is buy you less and less of a house as each year passes? Might as well live for the moment.  Aspiration needs the oxygen of reward & possibility.

It's really sad that some people see themselves as a "winner" for merely signing up to 25 years of debt.  FFS, THAT is depressing.

 

 

Well said.  Id have posted something like that had I not been too busy laughing.

On a serious note, having seen some programs recently about companies/organisations getting their message out on social media, I've always wondered if some of the trolls on here are paid professionals.  They seem to employ plenty standard market/advertising techniques to try and get people onside.  The latest Private Message trolls was an eye opener.

If they were getting paid, who'd be that worried about falling prices that they'd sanction such a spend.

Maybe it's the Russians           

Let's ope it's just some sad estate agents or BTLers who's lives are going down the pan simply because they are in debt.

Happy days.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Pop321 said:

You are right. I know winners (eg my daughter) and they don't feel like winners.

Im not sure I know any winners.

Couple of my inlaws boomer friends down sized and had to pay a fortune for a bungalow, the pay out the rest in fees and renovation.

The other owners I know have had to get into massive debt to move to mediocre houses, one couple look like they will be divorcing soon enough now that their London pwopatee deal ahs gone belly  up.

I know one couple who's mother died a month before their baby was born, the sold her house in north london and made a wedge, but at the end of the day the wife is miserable as her mother is dead, her child has no nan and no amount of f**king money on this planet is ever going to make that better ( anyone with a dead mother/father will understand that ).

Oh, and one other boomer who was pretty well off hasd sold up, bought a shit house and is not paying out for a care home for his wife, if she lives 3 years the money will be gone.

There are very few winners in this game.

 

Lets hope they raise interest rates next week ( they wont ) and put a stake through the heart of the house price vampire.

 

Edited October 26, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere

[dougless]

10 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Lets hope they raise interest rates next week ( they wont ) and put a stake through the heart of the house price vampire.

 

A lovely image, I feel the need to start sharpening wooden stakes....