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Looks like Pendragon have had bad results and are blaming peak car:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5010599/We-ve-hit-peak-car-says-biggest-motor-dealer-Britain.html

Blaming over production.

Any thoughts?

My thinking is that:

1) People have run out of money, even to scrape the deposit for a PCP

2) Genuine new technologies are probably just a few years away (such as completely usable without compromise electric cars)

3) Additional costs are cutting into the car budget, such as being charged for a work car parking space, or a residential car parking fee (these things would have previously been free)

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There are places where the use of a car is actively not encouraged......more residential units than car parking areas, higher parking and driving costs, sufficient public transport to get about locally......but if you do not live in an area like that there are thousands of very good and reliable secondhand cars out there for say between £1000 to £2000.....might be better value to get an old fashioned low interest bank loan than do a pcp....there are some good and honest garages people can rely on to MOT and service when need be, keeps local people in work.;)

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I have an acquaintance with a (leased / PCP?) very expensive +£70,000 Diesel German SUV who is angry at the dealer who recommended it to him because of dieselgate and the fact he won't have enough equity to finance the new vehicle he was planning on so He'll go for something lesser. This is someone on six figures +

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This comment couldn't possibly be true could it?;)

Quote

It has taken us a long time to get to this point. How do we solve it? By wiping out the current vehicle model and banning them and creating a new type of vehicle (electric/hybrid) which most people won't be able to afford new.....



 

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I don't know the figures but I wonder if the number of new young drivers has nosedived. Cost of living must be all time high and running a car is expensive. 

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9 minutes ago, winkie said:

This comment couldn't possibly be true could it?;)



 

Who knows. In theory an electric vehicle should be at least 50% cheaper to make than an ICE one. Much cheaper than that, actually 

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6 minutes ago, stuckmojo said:

Who knows. In theory an electric vehicle should be at least 50% cheaper to make than an ICE one. Much cheaper than that, actually 

But it is not the making of the car.....like phones it is the battery and the infastructure investment that makes it work......we are unable to build homes how do you think we could build thousands of battery chargers all over the country, when in many places there is no place to park let alone charge, and what will be the car parking rental cost for the time it takes to charge......the electricity supply that will be required is another issue altogether.......long way to go with many hurdles to overcome.;) 

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4 minutes ago, winkie said:

But it is not the making of the car.....like phones it is the battery and the infastructure investment that makes it work......we are unable to build homes how do you think we could build thousands of battery chargers all over the country, when in many places there is no place to park let alone charge, and what will be the car parking rental cost for the time it takes to charge......the electricity supply that will be required is another issue altogether.......long way to go with many hurdles to overcome.;) 

Maybe. I don't see it that way. It's never a 1 house = 2 cars on the drive situation. Not even now. Gradual uptake and the infrastructure isn't the issue. Lots being written about it. I'm a petrolhead (3 cars and 2 motorcycles) but electric cars are the logical next step. We'll be asking ourselves how it was normal to carry around a class 3 flammable liquid and let morons handle tens of gallons of that in a petrol station thousands of times a day.

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2 minutes ago, stuckmojo said:

Maybe. I don't see it that way. It's never a 1 house = 2 cars on the drive situation. Not even now. Gradual uptake and the infrastructure isn't the issue. Lots being written about it. I'm a petrolhead (3 cars and 2 motorcycles) but electric cars are the logical next step. We'll be asking ourselves how it was normal to carry around a class 3 flammable liquid and let morons handle tens of gallons of that in a petrol station thousands of times a day.

If there will be money to be made from electric cars there will be investors falling over themselves to provide the infastructure required......but they have to see it is a product that works and customers that are sold on it for different reasons or forced to use it........ isn't customer choice preferable, let the customer choose not force them into one way of doing things.....buy your electric if you believe in it, electricity can be very 'dirty' to produce.;)

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1 hour ago, reddog said:

Looks like Pendragon have had bad results and are blaming peak car:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5010599/We-ve-hit-peak-car-says-biggest-motor-dealer-Britain.html

Blaming over production.

Any thoughts?

My thinking is that:

1) People have run out of money, even to scrape the deposit for a PCP

2) Genuine new technologies are probably just a few years away (such as completely usable without compromise electric cars)

3) Additional costs are cutting into the car budget, such as being charged for a work car parking space, or a residential car parking fee (these things would have previously been free)

Most defo .. and I don’t even have to derail l this thread !

All your reasons are valid for sure. 

I think the other factor is spending on premium or luxury models is in rapid decline and rather like business class on airlines - small by volume, Large profit contribution 

These buyers are either petrol heads or pretty astute with cars and their demand is more elastic than anyone thinks 

They still drive those cars but either buy pre owned ( massive deals at the moment with some manufacturers throwing in 2 year official warranties on 5 year old cars, cutting their throat imho ) or run what they have looks no different with a private plate 

A large proportion are early adopters I would guess and just as you say, me included know that technology is coming of age and are waiting to see where the market goes

Edited by Greg Bowman

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57 minutes ago, winkie said:

There are places where the use of a car is actively not encouraged......more residential units than car parking areas, higher parking and driving costs, sufficient public transport to get about locally......but if you do not live in an area like that there are thousands of very good and reliable secondhand cars out there for say between £1000 to £2000.....might be better value to get an old fashioned low interest bank loan than do a pcp....there are some good and honest garages people can rely on to MOT and service when need be, keeps local people in work.;)

Good point , there is alot of luxury apartments going up in Luton and they give out very little parking provision. Going through the planning applications I have seen that the council's idea is that if they don't provide parking people will use the public transport.The flaw in the plan is the local public transport is too expensive. Where developments have been built you can see cars parked on the street etc 

The other side of the story is the cost of motoring is so much now (  driving lessons , insurance , car tax , petrol ) the younger generation are shunning it . The annoying part of this however is when they say of these millennials they are all in to their uber and small box apartments etc ..no these are not choices they are forced into this way of life.I was ready an article from I think it was the CEO from Air France describing their new service Joon aimed at millennials 

http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com/2017/09/25/joon-routes-planes/

So basically a service which pays staff less than their main services ...so aimed at employing millennials as well then ..  

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2 minutes ago, winkie said:

If there will be money to be made from electric cars there will be investors falling over themselves to provide the infastructure required......but they have to see it is a product that works and customers that are sold on it for different reasons or forced to use it........ isn't customer choice preferable, let the customer choose not force them into one way of doing things.....buy your electric if you believe in it, electricity can be very 'dirty' to produce.;)

I have come up against an impediment with electric cars since I am renting at the mo - looked at an I3 but fixed charger subsidy running out this year and you you do need a point at home . Don’t want to pay £500+ to effectively upgrade my landlords house - with more people renting and of course many in apartments is that a factor in the slow take up

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Yes so many issues here.....renting the space, renting the car......also all people being tracked.....data collection etc,etc.;)

Edit to say, big business would like a world where a driverless electric car picks up people on the journey to a place of work and back.....a continuous source of income for them, rental income.

Edited by winkie

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The future will be electric bikes not cars. Some people in this country are in for such a shock. This country will be too poor for expensive German machinery.

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38 minutes ago, Nabby81 said:

Good point , there is alot of luxury apartments going up in Luton and they give out very little parking provision. Going through the planning applications I have seen that the council's idea is that if they don't provide parking people will use the public transport.The flaw in the plan is the local public transport is too expensive. Where developments have been built you can see cars parked on the street etc 

The other side of the story is the cost of motoring is so much now (  driving lessons , insurance , car tax , petrol ) the younger generation are shunning it . The annoying part of this however is when they say of these millennials they are all in to their uber and small box apartments etc ..no these are not choices they are forced into this way of life.I was ready an article from I think it was the CEO from Air France describing their new service Joon aimed at millennials 

http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com/2017/09/25/joon-routes-planes/

So basically a service which pays staff less than their main services ...so aimed at employing millennials as well then ..  

Public transport although relative is hugely more expensive now than it ever was, tube always going up over and above inflation pa. Main line trains lack of investment, expensive in comparison to other European countries, and so much more mile for mile in comparison to air travel.....trains like water have a monopoly, unlike airlines or driving for now.....not all young people are shunning driving, driving with all its initial costs will come down over time....what is happening though is growing inequality means driving for more younger people  because of the high initial costs is making driving prohibitive for them....less freedom and choices.;)

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18 minutes ago, winkie said:

Public transport although relative is hugely more expensive now than it ever was, tube always going up over and above inflation pa. Main line trains lack of investment, expensive in comparison to other European countries, and so much more mile for mile in comparison to air travel.....trains like water have a monopoly, unlike airlines or driving for now.....not all young people are shunning driving, driving with all its initial costs will come down over time....what is happening though is growing inequality means driving for more younger people  because of the high initial costs is making driving prohibitive for them....less freedom and choices.;)

As you said public transport is expensive and poor quality for what it is.

 

I think one idea is a semi public transport like Uber ride sharing, or these on demand mini bus services that are appearing in the US.

 

But I find it interesting that 10-15 years ago ride sharing was all the rage with these green types telling us how good it is to share and save the environment.  Now someone is making this do-able with a clever software layer on the top and a for profit motive, many vested interests are against it as it is better than publicly provided services:

 

https://www.wired.com/story/chariot-suspended-transportation-hard/

Edited by reddog

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The old style of car sharing was hitch-hiking.....not unusual for people to get lifts that way, maybe society was more trusting in society and their fellow man then. ;)

 

Edit to say......perhaps the best way of cutting traveling costs down is to share the task of driving, organising yourselves in your local community, either taking it in turns to drive each week or split the cost of travel between you and the driver if don't drive, a no profit enterprise......make friends with those that you know work near you, perhaps picking them up walking to or at the bus stop in the morning if you see them.

Edited by winkie

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A colleague from India was telling me that UBER offer a service there where you can long term rent your UBER car and driver for up to 12 Hours, if for example you were sightseeing or travelling to several meetings.

In edinburgh there is a scheme called the City Car Club where, for an annual fee and subsequent daily fees, you can book a car on the net, walk up to the booked car parked in a set bay in the street, use it for the day then park it back inits set bay. The bays are picked by the council and are usually in central locations. If someone like UBER wants to adopt a similar model on a wider scale, where Cars are 'dumped' by user 1, user 2 uses the app to find where their local cars are parked, walks up to the parked car und uses NFC to open and start the car, drives as they want with hourly/milage billing, then parks the car at a location of his convenience when he's finished with it. User 3 subsequently finds that car via the app and so on....

I don't see self driving cars working fully autonomously in the near or mid term. I was driving down the M6 in torrential rain, the road markings were invisible, contraflows everywhere, old road markings left on the road, or reflecting the rain and looking like real road markings, indicating as manny as 3 sets of markings in one lane. If self driving cars can drive into the back of a grey lorry and kill the driver because the lorry is the same colour as the sky, then i cannot see how these cars can navigate the UKs roads, which are in appalling condition. If we cant roll out high speed broadband to parts of the UK in more than a decade, how are we going to dig up the roads to install sensors etc for self driving cars.

 

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2 minutes ago, regprentice said:

<snip>

. If we cant roll out high speed broadband to parts of the UK in more than a decade, how are we going to dig up the roads to install sensors etc for self driving cars.

 

Money.....sometimes the rush to get all technical and linked in will not benefit everyone, better the devil you know.....sure as eggs are eggs there will be a toll charge or rental charge to use.....that will take away freedom and choice for many more, they call it progress?;)

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Public transport although relative is hugely more expensive now than it ever was, tube always going up over and above inflation pa. Main line trains lack of investment, expensive in comparison to other European countries, and so much more mile for mile in comparison to air travel.....trains like water have a monopoly, unlike airlines or driving for now.....not all young people are shunning driving, driving with all its initial costs will come down over time....what is happening though is growing inequality means driving for more younger people  because of the high initial costs is making driving prohibitive for them....less freedom and choices.;)

Bus for me to get to the train station in morning 

1) Doesn't run before 7 or after 6 

2) 55 a month for just over a mile each way 

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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