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Toast

Lessons from history for the future of work

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4 hours ago, Toast said:

Interesting article from nature on the global causes and effects of mechanisation over time:

https://www.nature.com/news/lessons-from-history-for-the-future-of-work-1.22825

Note, this is from the op-ed part of nature, not the (very prestigious, but slightly click-bait-y) journal itself.

Interesting read. Sort of a version of the Kondratieff wave theory- things change every 60-odd years.

I think nobody has discussed the fact that as AI and robotics progress, its almost like a new, competing species is being created out there to go head-to-head with humans in many areas. Competing for work being one of them.

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What bemuses me is that this forum concentrates on house prices and, in some ways, house prices are a relatively small matter in the scale of things.

Now, I'm 72, a homeowner and retired so you can dismiss my views as simply one of the people who have gained from HPI but when I look at things from the point of view of a millennium and exclude the house price issue I would be far more concerned with problems of energy cost; demographics; AI/robotics; globalization and climate change. I understand fully wanting a house - I was no different at 30 than those currently at that age - but housing is really a minor problem as I see it and what is alarming is that these issues rarely surface.

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27 minutes ago, crouch said:

What bemuses me is that this forum concentrates on house prices and, in some ways, house prices are a relatively small matter in the scale of things.

Now, I'm 72, a homeowner and retired so you can dismiss my views as simply one of the people who have gained from HPI but when I look at things from the point of view of a millennium and exclude the house price issue I would be far more concerned with problems of energy cost; demographics; AI/robotics; globalization and climate change. I understand fully wanting a house - I was no different at 30 than those currently at that age - but housing is really a minor problem as I see it and what is alarming is that these issues rarely surface.

"housing is really a minor problem, I don't know what the young are moaning about" says 72/yo retired homeowner

 

 

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4 minutes ago, thewig said:

"housing is really a minor problem, I don't know what the young are moaning about" says 72/yo retired homeowner

 

 

"What bemuses me is that this forum concentrates on house prices "

 

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 

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37 minutes ago, thewig said:

"housing is really a minor problem, I don't know what the young are moaning about" says 72/yo retired homeowner

 

 

Well, I didn't say "I don't know what the young are moaning about" and it's quite clear from the context that I have considerable sympathy for younger people. Depressingly, my comment appears to be right. 

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38 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

"What bemuses me is that this forum concentrates on house prices "

 

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 

I see from the forum index and from following it generally that this is a forum for more general discussion. Indeed AI/robotics are a regular topic on this section dealing ostensibly with house prices and the "economy".

Get it? The "economy" right?

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12 hours ago, Thorn said:

Interesting read. Sort of a version of the Kondratieff wave theory- things change every 60-odd years.

I think nobody has discussed the fact that as AI and robotics progress, its almost like a new, competing species is being created out there to go head-to-head with humans in many areas. Competing for work being one of them.

It's been said before on other threads, but the technological changes coming will put humans in the position that horses were in after the industrial revolution.

Horses are the best comparison.

Edited by Errol

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13 minutes ago, crouch said:

Indeed AI/robotics are a regular topic on this section dealing ostensibly with house prices and the "economy".

Get it? The "economy" right?

 

Indeed - and the go to thread for a really thorough examination of the topic is this: 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Errol said:

It's been said before on other threads, but the technological changes coming will put humans in the position that horses were in after the industrial revolution.

Horses are the best comparison.

Good comparison.

Another important difference that those who trot (no pun intended, but I wish it had been) out the "Luddites always say this about anything new" is that past developments resulted in real, meaningful improvements in lives, even if that took quite some time to filter through to most of us. Now we've got no worries about the necessities (except maybe shelter, and that's due to other issues anyway), other than medical improvements.

Whilst it's true you need to be wary of anyone saying "it's different this time" you need to be equally wary of those fishing out vageuly similar examples from the past and assuming that the same outcome always happens.

If AI and automation becomes a truly generic process then any newly invented work will get done by that too. Maybe the Luddites argued that too about the machines they were worried about, but is it a valid comparison?

Edited by Riedquat

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50 minutes ago, Errol said:

It's been said before on other threads, but the technological changes coming will put humans in the position that horses were in after the industrial revolution.

Horses are the best comparison.

Maybe the robots will keep humans as pets?

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Wages could be pushed down to the point where it is still cheaper to employ a human rather than buy and maintain a robot; we have seen this with hand car washers replacing the automatic roller mop ones.

There are some manufacturing jobs where a human couldn't do the job to the same quality as a machine (e.g. laying carbon fibre composites) so presumably, these people's wages will collapse the most, and they will have to find something else to do? There is always the washing of cars.

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Taking the long view technological and scientific advancement isn't a straight line...it is quite possible that in 100 years time we will be more backward than we are now as challenges such as warfare and environmental degradation take their toll.  It took a thousand years to catch back up with the ancient Greek thinkers in the enlightenment in the 1600s.  Creationists in the US etc, other anti science movements and religious movements around the world pose a threat to advancement and rationalism. 

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3 hours ago, crouch said:

What bemuses me is that this forum concentrates on house prices and, in some ways, house prices are a relatively small matter in the scale of things.

Now, I'm 72, a homeowner and retired so you can dismiss my views as simply one of the people who have gained from HPI but when I look at things from the point of view of a millennium and exclude the house price issue I would be far more concerned with problems of energy cost; demographics; AI/robotics; globalization and climate change. I understand fully wanting a house - I was no different at 30 than those currently at that age - but housing is really a minor problem as I see it and what is alarming is that these issues rarely surface.

If housing weren't such an issue for most people, then it would be easier to deal with other issues. So we could infer that the older generations don't care about the issues you mentioned.

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Please don't assume that people over 50 all own homes, they don't.  High housing costs are a blight on our society and if you are lucky enough to own a home you are isolated from the financial ruin/trap that renting can cause.  I think it unfair to assume all older people are self satisfied and well set up.  Having said that when an older forum member underestimate the ruinous cost of housing that some face, they may well get some flack.

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34 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

If housing weren't such an issue for most people, then it would be easier to deal with other issues. So we could infer that the older generations don't care about the issues you mentioned.

Unfortunately these issues are connected. A study in 2013 said that nearly 50% of all jobs could be robotised by 2030 (that is in only 13 years time). Now if these forecasts are only partially true, which seems reasonable, they will affect the housing market profoundly. Having house prices so high that most cannot afford to buy is one thing but if you have no job and cannot repay any mortgage then that is another. 

Now it may well be that property will find its own level through all these changes but it could be that a large number of folk will simply suffer a different kind of disadvantage than they do now.

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4 hours ago, crouch said:

What bemuses me is that this forum concentrates on house prices and, in some ways, house prices are a relatively small matter in the scale of things.

Now, I'm 72, a homeowner and retired so you can dismiss my views as simply one of the people who have gained from HPI but when I look at things from the point of view of a millennium and exclude the house price issue I would be far more concerned with problems of energy cost; demographics; AI/robotics; globalization and climate change. I understand fully wanting a house - I was no different at 30 than those currently at that age - but housing is really a minor problem as I see it and what is alarming is that these issues rarely surface.

I word hard. I rent. My family and I get 4 weeks notice to get out on the whim of a landlord. Nobody cares. Including you because you are safe from this.

I don't care about gannets, snow leopards or anything else.

And you are bemused. 

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11 minutes ago, Thorn said:

I word hard. I rent. My family and I get 4 weeks notice to get out on the whim of a landlord. Nobody cares. Including you because you are safe from this.

I don't care about gannets, snow leopards or anything else.

And you are bemused. 

Ouch... but right on the money.

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11 minutes ago, crouch said:

Unfortunately these issues are connected. A study in 2013 said that nearly 50% of all jobs could be robotised by 2030 (that is in only 13 years time). Now if these forecasts are only partially true, which seems reasonable, they will affect the housing market profoundly. Having house prices so high that most cannot afford to buy is one thing but if you have no job and cannot repay any mortgage then that is another. 

Now it may well be that property will find its own level through all these changes but it could be that a large number of folk will simply suffer a different kind of disadvantage than they do now.

Again I would argue another way of looking at it.

On average we will be made richer by these advances. People who have own the technology will become rich. People who don't, won't. People who lose their jobs will face a double whammy.

If wealth were more equally distributed this wouldn't be a problem.

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6 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Again I would argue another way of looking at it.

On average we will be made richer by these advances. People who have own the technology will become rich. People who don't, won't. People who lose their jobs will face a double whammy.

If wealth were more equally distributed this wouldn't be a problem.

The owners of the technology will become richer but they're a minority. Everyone else will become poorer unless something else pops up that couldn't be done by an AI. Such changes help concentrate wealth rather than distribute it more evenly. There's already enough wealth in the UK for everyone to have a pretty comfortable life. Those pushing for more are either doing so simply because they're in a position to grab it, or under the mistaken belief that increased wealth will be spread out.

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3 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

The owners of the technology will become richer but they're a minority. Everyone else will become poorer unless something else pops up that couldn't be done by an AI. Such changes help concentrate wealth rather than distribute it more evenly. There's already enough wealth in the UK for everyone to have a pretty comfortable life. Those pushing for more are either doing so simply because they're in a position to grab it, or under the mistaken belief that increased wealth will be spread out.

This is the real issue. It's not the robots that are the problem. The robots and AI could allow everyone on the planet to have wealth and a leisure lifestyle, doing the stuff they want to do as opposed to the stuff they have to do. The reality is of course that the wealth produced as a consequence will be concentrated in the hands of the few, leading to the poverty of the many.

I think to some degree we are all guilty of this. No one complains about the rise of automation until its their job that gets made redundant. Until then they just celebrate the benefits of things like globabisation, automation and the ability to buy cheap stuff etc. I think the tipping point will come when a signiificant proportion of the middle class starts to get made redundant. You don't want too many smart people sitting around living in poverty. They'll find something to do with their time.

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4 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

This is the real issue. It's not the robots that are the problem. The robots and AI could allow everyone on the planet to have wealth and a leisure lifestyle, doing the stuff they want to do as opposed to the stuff they have to do. The reality is of course that the wealth produced as a consequence will be concentrated in the hands of the few, leading to the poverty of the many.

I think to some degree we are all guilty of this. No one complains about the rise of automation until its their job that gets made redundant. Until then they just celebrate the benefits of things like globabisation, automation and the ability to buy cheap stuff etc. I think the tipping point will come when a signiificant proportion of the middle class starts to get made redundant. You don't want too many smart people sitting around living in poverty. They'll find something to do with their time.

" I think the tipping point will come when a significant proportion of the middle class starts to get made redundant. You don't want too many smart people sitting around living in poverty. They'll find something to do with their time."

This is one reason why I think this will be traumatic because AI/robotics will affect a good many middle class jobs. My own profession, accounting, is unrecognisable from 50 years ago and AI will affect a many jobs in finance and healthcare (robots doing operations).

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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