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Mr Banks

Land registry UP 0.5% MOM +5.0% YOY

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Here is the report

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-hpi-for-august-2017

Came in below forecast but still a pretty big rise YOY london down 1% MOM. Huge rise in the north west (2.3%) even the greater south east +1.1. Hammond discussing more demand side stimulus Carney looking for excuses not to raise interest rates in his select committee briefing. Could we yet get 6.0% YoY by december? (bang on the centre of my prediction)

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What's going on in the North West?  2.3% MoM, the next best region is only 1.4%.

YoY highest region too at 6.5%.

Southern BTL money?  Northern Poorhouse effect?

They've not even started the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework thingy yet  (building 'homes', office blocks and metal sheds en-masse on your kid's playing field or local beauty spot)

Edited by Andy T

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13 minutes ago, Andy T said:

Southern BTL money?  Northern Poorhouse effect?

Partly this, Manchester has been a regular feature in property articles for a few years now as a more affordable city both for BTL and youngish southerners in search of a more "cost balanced" life, and now those prices are showing the result. Next best thing to London they cry, well connected, large established ethnic communities, all the hipster cafes.

Exactly same thing happening over in the U.S. and Canada, dire ex-mining towns in middle america seeing masses of young families moving in due to affordability issues, relocating thousands of miles in some cases. As you correctly point out, I don't believe these increases to be justified by thousands of new jobs or massive infrastructure improvements, simply the classic wave effect of value searching at the end of a property cycle, which is fairly clear to see from these numbers.

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10 minutes ago, Andy T said:

London -20% YoY volumes I think!

And prices ?

 

It's the only thing people can hang onto now.  Hopefully it will collapse and take the who sorry mess down with it.

 

One thing for sure is...Carney et all have 0 reason to keep IRs at 0.25%

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Negative in Scotland in August 0.8% seeing some silly prices locally in East Ayrshire. Sold to rent in june as I thought we had a peak, however the madness continues and for some homes the sold price was above post 2007 levels, locally the economy is depressed.

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I'm on the verge of giving up so viewing near derelict places in the hope of getting something at least on a long term fix. Can see them confiscating savings or killing the £ before they let the bubble go.

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13 minutes ago, Slimline said:

I'm on the verge of giving up so viewing near derelict places in the hope of getting something at least on a long term fix. Can see them confiscating savings or killing the £ before they let the bubble go.

Yep seems the long term plan to be honest. At least you are adapting to your surroundings instead of getting crosser and crosser but still believing the same thing.

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Unemployment and distressed btl  sellers will tip things the other way, still a couple of years to go for both yet I'd say. Although I have been saying that for about a decade.

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3 hours ago, Slimline said:

I'm on the verge of giving up so viewing near derelict places in the hope of getting something at least on a long term fix. Can see them confiscating savings or killing the £ before they let the bubble go.

 

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3 hours ago, Mr Banks said:

Yep seems the long term plan to be honest. At least you are adapting to your surroundings instead of getting crosser and crosser but still believing the same thing.

 

4 hours ago, Slimline said:

I'm on the verge of giving up so viewing near derelict places in the hope of getting something at least on a long term fix. Can see them confiscating savings or killing the £ before they let the bubble go.

I reached this conclusion a couple of years ago. Realised that having a stupidly large mortgage in the SE for a place that's worst than the house I grew up in would almost certainly make me unhappy. Enjoy life and emigrate if the madness continues. 

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4 hours ago, Mr Banks said:

Yep seems the long term plan to be honest. At least you are adapting to your surroundings instead of getting crosser and crosser but still believing the same thing.

Hey, Mr Banks. My calculator is broken. What is -1% MoM when compounded to an annualised rate? And what's my RoE on that if I'm leveraged at 65% LTV. Asking for a friend.

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6 hours ago, Nabby81 said:

Manchester upswing is people banking on a big price rise from HS2 being built ..

Ah good old capitalism provided the State makes good your bets

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5 hours ago, Slimline said:

I'm on the verge of giving up so viewing near derelict places in the hope of getting something at least on a long term fix. Can see them confiscating savings or killing the £ before they let the bubble go.

Totally misread your post- why buy an overpriced shithole? 

Surely waiting til prices fizzle out is better than the stress of going into stupid levels if debt for a place you don't really think is worth it. If you need a fix and want out of paying the landlord's rent, surely something like getting a boat is a better option? Certainly more enjoyable than working long hours to pay the mortgage and spending all your free time on doing up a derelict house. 

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7 hours ago, Nabby81 said:

Manchester upswing is people banking on a big price rise from HS2 being built ..

that and those scumbags at the disgusting beeb hoovering up all the FTB houses to 'just rent out'

 

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1 hour ago, Beary McBearface said:

Hey, Mr Banks. My calculator is broken. What is -1% MoM when compounded to an annualised rate? And what's my RoE on that if I'm leveraged at 65% LTV. Asking for a friend.

-11.4 % of course which makes your mates 35% LTV investment decrease by 32.6%

but the north west BTL investor is getting a 31.4% increase per year (if you compound the 2.3% mom gain) which is a 89.7% return on investment with a 35% downpayment

Both of course before interest costs and maintenance.

I wouldn't buy in london now but the wider uk are nowhere near Kensington levels of affordability. Only you Beary (and maybe the count) would try to change a story about the average property increasing by £7221 YOY into a bad news story for the owner of said property. 

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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