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Pop321

BBC - Are house prices back from the crash?

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Usual BBC sympathy rubbish on people 'being trapped' due to lower prices....but if the stats are right it does get me thinking. 

On these threads there is comment about the North East (for example) and other areas being cheap and 'deservedly' so....well can we have it both ways? Are houses too much or are they cheap compared to history? 

On HPI we believe houses are overpriced....but is this a much more mixed picture with dots of reasonableness and London and SE are like Iphones (fashionable at the moment, hyped up and over priced). 

An aside, I work for a FTSE company. Many work in London and earn £75k rather than my £55k...and I still am bewildered why they want the 3 hours extra commute. I see 'fashionable London areas' but they are full of tacky shops that wouldn't look out of place in a rough northern town...only up here the shop is called 'second hand furniture' but in nottinghill it's a shabby chic 'retro and antique furniture store'. Same stuff...different price. Are the residents being sold a lie? 

But not moaning about the differential, it is what it is....my question is do we have a generic HPI problem or just a London and SE (plus other dots) HPI problem?

And if so does that alter the whether it's a problem or a choice? A question....not a statement. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41582755

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Ponzi apologists comparing now to 2007 banking-sector-hours-from-total collapse prices. Not exactly a great starting point. There are still MSM voices who believe the salary multiple needed to buy a pile of bricks in 2007 are a sound foundation which we should aspire to return to. Idiots. And I see they've commissioned this report themselves - would rather my licence fee money was used elsewhere. You can tell its budget lobbying season.

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9 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Ponzi apologists comparing now to 2007 banking-sector-hours-from-total collapse prices. Not exactly a great starting point. There are still MSM voices who believe the salary multiple needed to buy a pile of bricks in 2007 are a sound foundation which we should aspire to return to. Idiots. And I see they've commissioned this report themselves - would rather my licence fee money was used elsewhere. You can tell its budget lobbying season.

It is true the figures used are based on a peak of greed witnessed in 2007 and the likely reason for this article is self interest. But looking beyond that it is very clear just how centralised the rises are, apart from London almost nothing has moved and that despite all the cheering for ever rising house prices coming from a noisy SE the facts are that large swathes of the country have seen gradual falls, some of which have been substantial. All of which rather cheers me up as I am as certain as I can be that we are beginning to see the start of a real HPC and this from a real terms base below 2007 in the areas I am most interested in buying in the future.

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44 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

An aside, I work for a FTSE company. Many work in London and earn £75k rather than my £55k...and I still am bewildered why they want the 3 hours extra commute. I see 'fashionable London areas' but they are full of tacky shops that wouldn't look out of place in a rough northern town...only up here the shop is called 'second hand furniture' but in nottinghill it's a shabby chic 'retro and antique furniture store'. Same stuff...different price. Are the residents being sold a lie? 

I'm probably being naive about this but surely has much to do with the concentration of higher paying jobs being in the SE? The concentration of wealth? Or perhaps concentration of Waitrose shops.

17 minutes ago, Switch625 said:

apart from London almost nothing has moved and that despite all the cheering for ever rising house prices coming from a noisy SE the facts are that large swathes of the country have seen gradual falls, some of which have been substantial. All of which rather cheers me up as I am as certain as I can be that we are beginning to see the start of a real HPC and this from a real terms base below 2007 in the areas I am most interested in buying in the future.

Surely the large falls in other areas of the UK are merely a return to non-speculative value vs earnings. Saying that, if you use 2012 as a starting point, prices in many "average" areas of the North West are up 25%, whilst wage increases have been near non-existent. To use the 2007 bubble as a benchmark is just irresponsible, to use 2012 prices demonstrates that things maybe aren't quite as static 5 years later as the media wish you to believe, NE being the exception.

Edited by Barnsey

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54 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

 An aside, I work for a FTSE company. Many work in London and earn £75k rather than my £55k...and I still am bewildered why they want the 3 hours extra commute. I see 'fashionable London areas' but they are full of tacky shops that wouldn't look out of place in a rough northern town...only up here the shop is called 'second hand furniture' but in nottinghill it's a shabby chic 'retro and antique furniture store'. Same stuff...different price. Are the residents being sold a lie? 

This was brilliantly satirised by Harry Enfield in his “I saw you coming” sketches.

See them on YouTube.

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25 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

1. Surely the large falls in other areas of the UK are merely a return to non-speculative value vs earnings.

2. Saying that, if you use 2012 as a starting point, prices in many "average" areas of the North West are up 25%, whilst wage increases have been near non-existent.

3. To use the 2007 bubble as a benchmark is just irresponsible, to use 2012 prices demonstrates that things maybe aren't quite as static 5 years later as the media wish you to believe, NE being the exception.

1. Possibly true, but my take is some of those areas are probably still over priced even now, however these are not areas I know well and I could be wrong

2. If 2007 was a peak then 2012 is still hardly a return to normality and sane levels of lending, in fact we haven't seen anything like sane levels of credit in the market for most of my adult life

3.Fully agree 2007 is being treated as the "new normal" which is disingenuous at best, reckless and self-serving at worst and is in my opinion a clear attempt to obfuscate in a shallow attempt to call for more props to "help" the poor people suffering under the yoke of potential or increasingly actual falls in the market

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Guys I am abit of a simpleton so take it easy on me.

To me this is a bearish article basically saying houseprices in the uk have remained the same or fallen in the last decade apart from London.

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The regions are more dependent on public sector jobs and generous state benefits. These are all down on 2007. London is more dependent on technology and international finance which is up.

 

That's my amateur take anyway.

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4 minutes ago, RomfordDon said:

Guys I am abit of a simpleton so take it easy on me.

To me this is a bearish article basically saying houseprices in the uk have remained the same or fallen in the last decade apart from London.

Troll

 

 

?

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1 hour ago, Pop321 said:

up here the shop is called 'second hand furniture' but in nottinghill it's a shabby chic 'retro and antique furniture store'.

"We buy old junk and sell valuable antiques"

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11 minutes ago, Si1 said:

The regions are more dependent on public sector jobs and generous state benefits. These are all down on 2007. London is more dependent on technology and international finance which is up.

 

That's my amateur take anyway.

I think the key is actually urban and migration factors not wealth. ie. pressure on land, the Beirut factor. If you were correct the Derbys Dales wouldn't have fallen 34% in this survey. It is a wealthy area with no unemployment. 

Pressure on land in urban hubs due to migration is a global problem.

 

Edited by crashmonitor

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28 minutes ago, Si1 said:

The regions are more dependent on public sector jobs and generous state benefits. These are all down on 2007. London is more dependent on housing benefit which is up.

 

That's my amateur take anyway.

fixered

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36 minutes ago, RomfordDon said:

Guys I am abit of a simpleton so take it easy on me.

To me this is a bearish article basically saying houseprices in the uk have remained the same or fallen in the last decade apart from London.

To me it says "look look, houses are 10% cheaper than 2007!!! Buying now is a fantastic idea if you're not in London!". Luring desperate people into buying at another cyclical peak, just like last time...

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4 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

To me it says "look look, houses are 10% cheaper than 2007!!! Buying now is a fantastic idea if you're not in London!". Luring desperate people into buying at another cyclical peak, just like last time...

yeah but apparently tv programming doesn't work, as everyone is an individual and makes all their own choices completely isolated from societal programming in any way shape or form

the fact they watch hours of tv programming every night is by the by of course...

 

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2 hours ago, Pop321 said:

An aside, I work for a FTSE company. Many work in London and earn £75k rather than my £55k...and I still am bewildered why they want the 3 hours extra commute. I see 'fashionable London areas' but they are full of tacky shops that wouldn't look out of place in a rough northern town...only up here the shop is called 'second hand furniture' but in nottinghill it's a shabby chic 'retro and antique furniture store'. Same stuff...different price. Are the residents being sold a lie? 

I think many people are just obesessed with being in London and think anything outside the city is a wasteland with nothing to do.

Im in a great position financially. 3 years out of uni earning £60k. I had a call from a recruiter a couple of weeks ago. Usually I just ignore them (I guess they have my details from when I was applying for grad jobs) but this time thought I'd answer and see what the market is like. 

After finding out my salary, he proceeded to tell me how much I was being underpaid. "I'd be able to get you at least 70k in London right now". His reaction was priceless when I told him there's no way he'd get me to work in London on anything under £120k. "Why would anyone not want to live in London?".

Currenty working 9-5 in a relaxed environment, casual dress code, 10 minute walk to and from work.

Why would I want to give that up for an extra few hundred a month. Over an hour commuting every day to a small flat, working London hours is not my idea of an upgrade.

The effect is even bigger for those earning less.

A couple earning £15k each in the North can live a good life, can afford to buy a small house and bring up a family. The equivalent jobs in London probably still pay less than £20k, and there is no chance of ever owning anything bigger than a shed.

It can't be long until the public realise they are being brainwashed.

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2 hours ago, Pop321 said:

Usual BBC sympathy rubbish on people 'being trapped' due to lower prices....but if the stats are right it does get me thinking. 

 

Any sympathy for savers/renters trapped by high prices ?

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1 hour ago, IsThisRealLife said:

I think many people are just obesessed with being in London and think anything outside the city is a wasteland with nothing to do.

Im in a great position financially. 3 years out of uni earning £60k. I had a call from a recruiter a couple of weeks ago. Usually I just ignore them (I guess they have my details from when I was applying for grad jobs) but this time thought I'd answer and see what the market is like. 

After finding out my salary, he proceeded to tell me how much I was being underpaid. "I'd be able to get you at least 70k in London right now". His reaction was priceless when I told him there's no way he'd get me to work in London on anything under £120k. "Why would anyone not want to live in London?".

Currenty working 9-5 in a relaxed environment, casual dress code, 10 minute walk to and from work.

Why would I want to give that up for an extra few hundred a month. Over an hour commuting every day to a small flat, working London hours is not my idea of an upgrade.

The effect is even bigger for those earning less.

A couple earning £15k each in the North can live a good life, can afford to buy a small house and bring up a family. The equivalent jobs in London probably still pay less than £20k, and there is no chance of ever owning anything bigger than a shed.

It can't be long until the public realise they are being brainwashed.

Agree completely. I love London but it's like Venice, Rome or Florida to me...super to visit and see but wouldn't want to live there. Each to their own I guess. 

My pension used to be linked to my pay....so I may have jumped through some hoops to earn another £20k. Now I just wouldn't. It's inefficient. 

The guys earning more in London are more ambitious, work harder and deserve any extra reward they receive. I get that but the next jump on the career ladder for me (and them) is a whole different league so now they may struggle to truly benefit further.

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2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

To me it says "look look, houses are 10% cheaper than 2007!!! Buying now is a fantastic idea if you're not in London!". Luring desperate people into buying at another cyclical peak, just like last time...

That did occur to me. It's certainly not very affordable where I am despite these stats. 

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3 hours ago, Si1 said:

The regions are more dependent on public sector jobs and generous state benefits. These are all down on 2007. London is more dependent on technology and international finance which is up.

 

That's my amateur take anyway.

Even more public sector then...

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A bit all over the shop there. I'm around a boundary between a place that's gone up by 23% and another that's gone down by 23% according to that. Small volumes (particularly on the one that's gone up, there's not much there anyway) probably explain the variations.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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