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London house prices fall at fastest rate since 2009 financial crash

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The Indy article uses data from the LSL/Acadata England & Wales House Price Index for September 2017, which was released today. This is an index that has never received much attention on this board, although it's one that I have often referenced in the past as it uses Land Reg data and is more timely than the ONS index (although it is still somewhat laggy on a regional basis).

http://www.acadata.co.uk/LSL Acadata E&W HPI News Release September 17.pdf

With this index, house prices in England & Wales fell 0.1% in September and they have now fallen for six months in a row, with the annual rate just +1.3%. This is the lowest annual figure since April 2012 and there's a distinct possibility that the annual growth figure will turn negative next month.

LSL_Acad_161017a.jpg

Meanwhile Greater London is showing an annual fall in the year to August 2017 of -0.7%, the first negative print on the LSL/Acad index since June 2011. The regional figures only go up to August because volume data are currently too low to draw any firm conclusions beyond this date, but LSL/Acad say that transactions submitted thus far are indicative of a further 2.7% fall in Greater London during September.

LSL_Acad_161017b.jpg

Looking at the Greater London table, the average price peaked at £628,394 in March 2017 and stood at £584,467 in August. If the indicated 2.7% fall in Sept 2017 verifies, this will take the London average down to £568,686, which will be 9.5% below peak.

LSL_Acad_161017c.jpg

Note that LSL/Acad's index is showing a greater fall in London than the official ONS index. This is because ONS uses geometric averaging, which will give more weight to lower-priced properties. LSL/Acad uses arithmetic averaging, which means that falls in higher-priced properties will pull the average down more than a geometrically weighted series.

 

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38 minutes ago, FreeTrader said:

The Indy article uses data from the LSL/Acadata England & Wales House Price Index for September 2017, which was released today. This is an index that has never received much attention on this board, although it's one that I have often referenced in the past as it uses Land Reg data and is more timely than the ONS index (although it is still somewhat laggy on a regional basis).

 

Welcome back.

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2 hours ago, FreeTrader said:

The Indy article uses data from the LSL/Acadata England & Wales House Price Index for September 2017, which was released today.

 

Thank you, a very interesting post.

And good to see you again, FreeTrader.

We missed you, particularly on the Gilts thread.

Hope to see you back again soon.

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2 minutes ago, FreeTrader said:

Thanks Democorruptcy, and to moonriver as well.

I've never really been away, but have very little free time to post these days.

Quality not quantity. Welcome back.

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3 hours ago, FreeTrader said:

This is because ONS uses geometric averaging,

This sounds like the more sensible approach, until some idiot gives one away.

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And flat sales have plummeted:

"In July, the number of apartments sold in the capital fell by 47pc compared to 12 months previously, according to figures from Home.co.uk, which analyses data from the Office for National Statistics and property portals."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/number-flats-sold-london-tumbles-first-time-buyers-priced/

"This slowdown in sales signals that affordability has been crunched and many first-time buyers, who would typically purchase these properties, are sitting on their hands and waiting for a correction in prices. "

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Good to see you back on forum Free Trader.

On 11/07/2014 at 10:22 AM, FreeTrader said:

We've had a number of threads over the years on the subject of house price index differences, but a couple of recent papers have clarified the position to a greater extent than in the past (IMHO).

I linked to the first of these (from the Insitute for Fiscal Studies) a few weeks ago:

Measuring house prices - a comparison of different indices


Today a briefing note from Acadata (compilers of the LSL/Acadata HPI - formerly Acadametrics) has added to the discussion, referencing the IFS paper above.

Which House Price Index?

The Acadata note understandably attempts to justify why their own index is best, but nevertheless this paper does have useful information and makes some good points.

The ONS has been working for some time on producing a definitive house price index for the UK, but thus far they haven't published an update on their progress.

 

BTW; I thought Rightmove did its headline statements for prices, based on the asking prices of houses onto market that month/that quarter?  It's an asking price index yes?

It may have changed since 2014....

Quote

Asking prices The indices considered in this briefing note are measures of sale prices. However, online property company Rightmove.co.uk produces an index primarily based on the asking prices advertised on its website, which are frequently different from the actual sale price. Asking prices may be of interest in themselves, and the gap between posted asking and actual sale prices may tell us something about the balance of supply and demand for housing. Asking prices may also be a leading indicator of actual sale prices.

 

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A crash without an interest rate rise? Always believed it could happen. B)

Even at 0.25% Carney couldn't keep the shit from backing up the dunny.

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28 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

And flat sales have plummeted:

"In July, the number of apartments sold in the capital fell by 47pc compared to 12 months previously, according to figures from Home.co.uk, which analyses data from the Office for National Statistics and property portals."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/number-flats-sold-london-tumbles-first-time-buyers-priced/

"This slowdown in sales signals that affordability has been crunched and many first-time buyers, who would typically purchase these properties, are sitting on their hands and waiting for a correction in prices. "

Impressive drop.I wonder whether it's more a lack of 2% gross yield BTLers?

From the linky

' Lucy Pendleton, founder of estate agency James Pendleton, said: “Solid numbers of people are showing some reluctance at current prices and signalling to all the other market participants they can’t transact unless they come back down to earth.” 

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31 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

And flat sales have plummeted:

"In July, the number of apartments sold in the capital fell by 47pc compared to 12 months previously, according to figures from Home.co.uk, which analyses data from the Office for National Statistics and property portals."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/number-flats-sold-london-tumbles-first-time-buyers-priced/

"This slowdown in sales signals that affordability has been crunched and many first-time buyers, who would typically purchase these properties, are sitting on their hands and waiting for a correction in prices. "

 

18 hours ago, FreeTrader said:

Note that LSL/Acad's index is showing a greater fall in London than the official ONS index. This is because ONS uses geometric averaging, which will give more weight to lower-priced properties. LSL/Acad uses arithmetic averaging, which means that falls in higher-priced properties will pull the average down more than a geometrically weighted series.

 

From the telegraph link

' A correction could soon be coming: data from Acadata and LSL property services found that prices in London have fallen the most since the financial crisis. Average property values have fallen 2.7pc in the year to September, the most since 2009. '

 

Also,nice to see you posting again FT.

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Many thanks FreeTrader, interesting to see all the figures in one document, classic desperation value wave hitting the outer regions whilst the SE cools.

Some interesting things going on in the SE, Reading has flat lined which I had a good idea about, but Wokingham down 6.9% in the past year, and things are only just kicking off!

Edited by Barnsey

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22 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

 

From the telegraph link

' A correction could soon be coming: data from Acadata and LSL property services found that prices in London have fallen the most since the financial crisis. Average property values have fallen 2.7pc in the year to September, the most since 2009. '

 

Also,nice to see you posting again FT.

Here you go, your light is out from under the bushel.

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47 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

A crash without an interest rate rise? Always believed it could happen. B)

Even at 0.25% Carney couldn't keep the shit from backing up the dunny.

And we have a govt that seems powerless in the political, fiscal, monetary and methodological senses to do anything about it. If you thought the cupboard was bare after Brown was kicked out, well at least he had a cupboard.

Edited by Si1

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  • 298 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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