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Who believes the BoE will raise rates in November ?


Who believes the BoE will raise rates in November ?  

193 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you believe the BoE will raise rates in November ?

    • Yes, nailed on
      36
    • No, are you out of your tiny mind
      99
    • Maybe, they've taken me in again
      56

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  • Poll closed on 10/31/2017 at 11:59 PM

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-30/boe-expected-vote-6-3-rate-increase-and-signal-markets-underpricing-future-hikes

 

Nonetheless, the BoE is expected to vote 6-3 in favour of a rate hike from 0.25% to 0.50% on Thursday, as Bloomberg reports, not everyone at the Bank of England will be on board with raising interest rates.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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I saw 2 Nationwide articles: One relates to the expected base rate decision leading to SVR increases, and the other relates to fixed rate products. It reads like they need to protect margins, and then having to chase remortgage business. An interesting dynamic!

Edited by Ash4781
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5 minutes ago, Ash4781 said:

I saw 2 Nationwide articles: One relates to the expected base rate decision leading to SVR increases, and the other relates to fixed rate products. It reads like they need to protect margins, and then having to chase remortgage business. An interesting dynamic!

The law of unintended consequence.

The bankers are eating their own poo.

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3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The bankers should be getting worried.

I'd not say nationalise them, I'd say shut them down and arrest any wrong doers

In my dreams.  Better nationalisation than crony capitalism!  Better still, regulated free markets.  In my dreams.

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56 minutes ago, Ash4781 said:

I saw 2 Nationwide articles: One relates to the expected base rate decision leading to SVR increases, and the other relates to fixed rate products. It reads like they need to protect margins, and then having to chase remortgage business. An interesting dynamic!

Good spot/analysis.  Would like to see their funding model, but then they may have a fat margin.  Now why chase remortgage business......?  A sign of strength or weakness?

Edited by Fence
Fat margin?
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42 minutes ago, Ash4781 said:

I saw 2 Nationwide articles: One relates to the expected base rate decision leading to SVR increases, and the other relates to fixed rate products. It reads like they need to protect margins, and then having to chase remortgage business. An interesting dynamic!

Bank margins have been squeezed by the ZLB, they want the base rate up!

RMBS issuance, for instance, had all but stopped thanks to the TFS.

Quote

Holmes under the Clamour

Tuesday 26 September 2017 in 24 Blog by Rob Ford and tagged Markets, RMBS, ABS

It’s the last week of September and the kids are now all back at school and financial markets have fully reopened since the summer lull.

Back in those quiet, albeit far too brief, days of summer, we wrote that the impending end of the Term Funding Scheme (TFS) in the UK might lead in the medium-term to a much-needed pick-up and return to a more regular issuance of prime, high-street bank RMBS, and we expanded on this in a second article Prime please!  It may be a little too early to say that our prayers have been answered already, but with a second prime UK RMBS deal in the market in less than a month things are definitely looking up.

Last week, Virgin Money sold c.£850m equiv. of senior notes from its “Gosforth” prime RMBS programme into the market. This was their 9th RMBS deal since taking over the “good bank” assets of the former Northern Rock back in 2010, but their first since April 2016 (and therefore since the Brexit vote and the subsequent introduction of the TFS).

Yesterday, Santander UK (formerly Abbey National) made a similar move, announcing a new deal from their “Holmes” prime RMBS programme – their first since May 2016. This deal is currently expected to be a little smaller at c. £400m but final sizes won’t be determined until demand has been fully assessed. The Gosforth deal was heavily oversubscribed so if Holmes attracts similar demand then there may be an incentive to upsize.

Whilst Virgin also exploited international investor demand by creating a 2-year USD denominated tranche along with a 5-year GBP tranche, the Holmes deal will sell GBP notes only, but also with 2-year and 5-year maturities. A different recent Santander auto-loan deal did sell USD notes, though; so it’s interesting to note that UK issuers are already looking to tap overseas as well as domestic demand – a sure sign of increased issuance ambitions.

It’s clearly early days to speculate that the heady days of prime UK RMBS issuance are back – in 2006 the high street banks issued almost £80bn equivalent of senior notes according to Bloomberg, so there’s a long way to go – but the level of enquiry we’ve seen from arrangers as to potential appetite for UK prime RMBS going forward certainly points to a gradual and welcome return for the sector.

https://twentyfouram.com/2017/09/26/holmes-under-the-clamour/

Nationwide has reduced some of its fix rates by 0.5%. So net-net across the entire lending book, a 0.25% hike on the variable side is probably neutral overall.

Quote

Nationwide said it had decided to provide advance notice of its intentions in order to “give clarity” to its members. It said both its variable rates would remain competitive at 2.5% and 3.99%, assuming a 0.25% rise. It has also taken the opportunity to cut some of its new fixed rates by up to 0.5% - putting it at odds with many rivals which have hiked the cost of their fixed-rate home loans in recent weeks.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/oct/30/nationwide-interest-rate-rise-to-mortgage-customers

 

Edited by zugzwang
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http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/mark-carney-interest-rate-rise_uk_59f7a097e4b0aec1467a446e

"Homeowners struggling to make ends meet will be even worse off if the Bank of England hikes interest rates this week, a financial charity has warned."

"“We are concerned the interest rise is going to hit people who are the worst off and make them even worse off.”"

 

How is it possible to make homeowners, worse off....dont they mean debt owners.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/mark-carney-interest-rate-rise_uk_59f7a097e4b0aec1467a446e

"Homeowners struggling to make ends meet will be even worse off if the Bank of England hikes interest rates this week, a financial charity has warned."

"“We are concerned the interest rise is going to hit people who are the worst off and make them even worse off.”"

 

How is it possible to make homeowners, worse off....dont they mean debt owners.

 

 

Indeed.

Fair for them to make the comment (caution) and I did not read they said they were against it.  If they had, one could ask exactly how would a collapsed economy help them instead?

I also read, contrary to the bl**ding obvious headline:

"Another debt charity, Step Change, urged against overstating the impact of a small rate rise, but admitted that for those “living on the edge” it could have a serious impact".

There is now no easy way out.

 

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5 minutes ago, Fence said:

Indeed.

Fair for them to make the comment (caution) and I did not read they said they were against it.  If they had, one could ask exactly how would a collapsed economy help them instead?

I also read, contrary to the bl**ding obvious headline:

"Another debt charity, Step Change, urged against overstating the impact of a small rate rise, but admitted that for those “living on the edge” it could have a serious impact".

There is now no easy way out.

 

Raising Interest rates wont collapse the economy, it will help it by collapsing house prices.

They should have been speaking out against the low IRs and the money printing in the first place...i'd wager they didnt.

There is only one way out, easy or otherwise.

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/mark-carney-interest-rate-rise_uk_59f7a097e4b0aec1467a446e

"Homeowners struggling to make ends meet will be even worse off if the Bank of England hikes interest rates this week, a financial charity has warned."

"“We are concerned the interest rise is going to hit people who are the worst off and make them even worse off.”"

 

How is it possible to make homeowners, worse off....dont they mean debt owners.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/lukehumphreyID

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/luke-humphrey-b9630765

 

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1 hour ago, Fence said:

Indeed.

Fair for them to make the comment (caution) and I did not read they said they were against it.  If they had, one could ask exactly how would a collapsed economy help them instead?

I also read, contrary to the bl**ding obvious headline:

"Another debt charity, Step Change, urged against overstating the impact of a small rate rise, but admitted that for those “living on the edge” it could have a serious impact".

There is now no easy way out.

Come on Fence.  I had to live through 'the living breakdown' for debtors and mortgage holders through 2008, about 'the pain' and 'the innocence'....

It's near 10 years later, and prices have zoomed again + near 10 years more rent paid out......

Didn't you read my entry a few posts back.....?

Anyone who has taken on a mortgage did so out of their own freewill.....  other people exist on the Gen Rent Forever side of things.

We've got multi-millionaire Inherited Homeowners on HPC, with hundreds of thousands of pounds in other investments... 2015 members who've made post after post after post shaming HPCers for wanting better housing affordability..."Recession / The Pain".  **** that.

And those who have taken out mortgages in recent times have MMR/did free-will, and will generally be okay - have to take brunt of market like Gen Rent has been forced to vs BTLer double down and boomers/baby-boomers Mad-Gainz.

Quote

 

The reason why debtor power is a dog that won't bark is because there is no dog. With even scare headlines for the mortgage prisoners fashioned by the boom coming in at 40% of mortgage owner-occupiers where are we at? 14 million owner-occpier households, 7 million households. 40% of that is give or take 3 million. It's comparable the BTL sector. It's most likely smaller than the PRS, (and the PRS is roughly the same size as the social rent sector).

They are a minority who made some seriously bad choices. There is no rescue and no happy ending coming.

 

DNb6oL7WkAEJQh7.jpg:large

 

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1 minute ago, iamnumerate said:

It might be the first time Mark Carney has ever raised interest rates - that is a big deal.

Apparently he has never raised rates in his career.  I have an indelible image of him sitting at a large oak topped table in his Notting Hill kitchen swotting up on the manual, with soothing voices from his busy but ever supportive wife!

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2 hours ago, Ash4781 said:

I saw 2 Nationwide articles: One relates to the expected base rate decision leading to SVR increases, and the other relates to fixed rate products. It reads like they need to protect margins, and then having to chase remortgage business. An interesting dynamic!

Good analysis. They appear to be moving towards trying to attract savers (probably to bail in) but they currently only borrow 1 in 5 pounds from the BoE so they are no way near the extream margins but that could disappear very quickly, from what I have seen they are expecting a rate rise and they would know.

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8 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Bank margins have been squeezed by the ZLB, they want the base rate up!

RMBS issuance, for instance, had all but stopped thanks to the TFS.

Nationwide has reduced some of its fix rates by 0.5%. So net-net across the entire lending book, a 0.25% hike on the variable side is probably neutral overall.

 

I haven't got anything massively intelligent to contribute but I wanted to thankyou for posting the "24 Blog" article in full for two reasons.

1. They've misconstrued what the Internet is: they have not a pay-wall but a knowledge-wall up, and have shut me out of their website because apparently I'm not a professional investment article reader.

2. "Holmes under the Clamour" is a fantastic headline!

 

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5 hours ago, Venger said:

Come on Fence.  I had to live through 'the living breakdown' for debtors and mortgage holders through 2008, about 'the pain' and 'the innocence'....

It's near 10 years later, and prices have zoomed again + near 10 years more rent paid out......

 

2008 "They didn't know what they were doing." (Anyone who owned a house - but pointing more toward those who had bought 2004-2007)

It's also been just about 10 more years of (each year)... "They don't know what they're doing"  - (Buyers of 2008-2017.)

Just about 10 more years of (each year) "Pity The Homeowner" (for when prices imminently fall).

Just about 10 more years of (each year) "You HPCers are wishing misery, pain and recession on owners, all so you can get a cheap house."  :rolleyes:

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On 29/10/2017 at 8:58 AM, Noginthenog said:

Yes he does. He can just leave rates where they are. Simples!

 

We've already had a huge run on the pound after Brexit, and what did they do then? LOWER RATES:lol::lol::lol:

I'm eating my own hat as I type this... Mostly symbolic as we are just back to the 'emergency' rates we had before Brexit. With inflation at 3% I still think this is still a very negative real rate.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/02/bank-england-raises-interest-rates-uk-economy-grows-faster-expected/

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On 02/11/2017 at 8:21 PM, Noginthenog said:

W*F!!!

Nice to see Bruce's thread on trolls, they do exist BTW, google housepricecrash or countofnowhere and see what the desperados are saying on other forums, these are not harmless middle aged men/women, these are loonies who's kind were willing to make death threats around 2008 and try to out someone as TCON and try to  humiliate him a while back, anyone who thinks all the trolls here are harmless are misguided, some I would imagine are desperate, scared, angry little men willing to lash out at anyone they can blame for their impending failure.  At the end of the day, we are not to blame, they are.

 

The visitors would do well to work out, how come some on here were able to see interest rates going up this year while many post disinformation about it making no difference, mortgages still available, that's all they'll do, TCON is sad because all he does is post on here ( posted over the weekend when I've been out living my life )  etc etc etc etc etc.

 

I thought about not posting the following as making preduictions is difficult, but given the real state of the economy, the house price mania and Carney's ill looking boat I'd say it was clear to even this most mentally challenged troll what is afoot.

So, dont hang the messenger....from what I understand now, this is just the start, the next steps are:

FLS will end. 

Term Funding will end.

The BoE will tighten.

Carney will leave and be replaced by a man with an opposing view.

Interest Rates will be 1 to 1.5% by Dec 2018, following the US as they go.

Interest Rates will be 4%+ by 2022, following the US as they go.

BTL will be hammered/taxed into oblivion, this is a political decision.

Banks will act like banks again, houses will be repo'd, 40% deposits will be lost, BTL empires will vanish along with their family homes.

HTB2 will be claimed, the banks will not lose.

No one makes a profit if prices just keep going up, it's the old adage, if everyone has a £1M, then no one is rich. The bust mist follow the boom for the men in the know to crystallize their winnings, the mug punters must pay the price.

It very much looks like the end is nigh.  TPTB know continuing this bubble will cause more problems that collapsing it.  

The new paradigm was the same old paradigm after all.

What this all means for house prices is anyone's guess.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

!!!! THEY'll F**KING COLLAPSE !!!!

 

 

 

Sure, you don't have to believe me, no reason to is there.

 

63e728454305e0bd296d183d3181f2ab.jpg

 

 

 

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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47 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Nice to see Bruce's thread on trolls, they do exist BTW, google housepricecrash or countofnowhere and see what the desperados are saying on other forums, these are not harmless middle aged men/women, these are loonies who's kind were willing to make death threats around 2008 and try to out someone as TCON and try to  humiliate him a while back, anyone who thinks all the trolls here are harmless are misguided, some I would imagine are desperate, scared, angry little men willing to lash out at anyone they can blame for their impending failure.  At the end of the day, we are not to blame, they are.

 

The visitors would do well to work out, how come some on here were able to see interest rates going up this year while many post disinformation about it making no difference, mortgages still available, that's all they'll do etc etc etc etc etc.

 

I thought about not posting the following as making preduictions is difficult, but given the real state of the economy, the house price mania and Carney's ill looking boat I'd say it was clear to even this most mentally challenged troll what is afoot.

So, dont hang the messenger....from what I understand now, this is just the start, the next steps are:

FLS will end. 

Term Funding will end.

The BoE will tighten.

Carney will leave and be replaced by a man with an opposing view.

Interest Rates will be 1 to 1.5% by Dec 2018, following the US as they go.

Interest Rates will be 4%+ by 2022, following the US as they go.

BTL will be hammered/taxed into oblivion, this is a political decision.

Banks will act like banks again, houses will be repo'd, 40% deposits will be lost, BTL empires will vanish along with their family homes.

HTB2 will be claimed, the banks will not lose.

No one makes a profit if prices just keep going up, it's the old adage, if everyone has a £1M, then no one is rich. The bust mist follow the boom for the men in the know to crystallize their winnings, the mug punters must pay the price.

It very much looks like the end is nigh.  TPTB know continuing this bubble will cause more problems that collapsing it.  

The new paradigm was the same old paradigm after all.

What this all means for house prices is anyone's guess.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

!!!! THEY'll F**KING COLLAPSE !!!!

 

 

 

Sure, you don't have to believe me, no reason to is there.

 

63e728454305e0bd296d183d3181f2ab.jpg

 

 

 

 

TPTB have spent the last few decades convincing voters that increasing house prices is a sign of a healthy economy. Your predictions will only be right if someone actually spells out to people why decreasing house prices puts more money in their pockets and benefits them when moving to a bigger place.

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