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Who believes the BoE will raise rates in November ?


Who believes the BoE will raise rates in November ?  

193 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you believe the BoE will raise rates in November ?

    • Yes, nailed on
      36
    • No, are you out of your tiny mind
      99
    • Maybe, they've taken me in again
      56

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  • Poll closed on 10/31/2017 at 11:59 PM

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1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

Why raise them now?

Money's become worthless and I suspect they worry about being concentrated in a camp somewhere east of Berlin.

of course it could be they housing bubble has ground to a halt and they need a crash to extract maximum profit and do it all again.

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I don't see how any over indebted western country can 'pull away'. The word is that CBs are independent. IMO they're as independent as the tide and the moon.

No government is going to use their own central bank to meaningfully raise interest rates and saddle itself with (arguably already) unserviceable debt. They will not put themselves in a position where they declare bankruptcy.

The only path is down down down with the currency. As it has been for the last 100 years. Once a convenient level of inflation (as in proper inflation, not this retail/consumer prices bolleaux) has been reached, then interest rate rises can be genuinely on the table.

IMO...

Which means nothing except in my world...

Like in the US you mean ?

 

I love the smell of fear in the morning.

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1 hour ago, oatbake said:

Why halve them overnight last year?

Well at the time their reasoning was that they were trying  to head off their predicted post brexit vote recession. Many have questioned why they did so as far as time scale and scope of actions. A mere six weeks later and introducing the term funding scheme. They even admitted that the increased QE was to offset the damage dropping rates were causing banks.

They seem to be able to look through hardship facing the public but not when it's faced by the sector many of the MPC originate from. Its that fact that is undermining the publics confidence in the BOE.

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27 minutes ago, Blod said:

Well at the time their reasoning was that they were trying  to head off their predicted post brexit vote recession. Many have questioned why they did so as far as time scale and scope of actions. A mere six weeks later and introducing the term funding scheme. They even admitted that the increased QE was to offset the damage dropping rates were causing banks.

They seem to be able to look through hardship facing the public but not when it's faced by the sector many of the MPC originate from. Its that fact that is undermining the publics confidence in the BOE.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

 

The bankers just robbed us.

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47 minutes ago, Blod said:

Well at the time their reasoning was that they were trying  to head off their predicted post brexit vote recession. Many have questioned why they did so as far as time scale and scope of actions. A mere six weeks later and introducing the term funding scheme. They even admitted that the increased QE was to offset the damage dropping rates were causing banks.

They seem to be able to look through hardship facing the public but not when it's faced by the sector many of the MPC originate from. Its that fact that is undermining the publics confidence in the BOE.

I hope that Term Funding Scheme ends soon.  Feb 2018?

A little bit from The Times at the Weekend - which also looked at possible consequences for Gilts and Shares of lifting rate back to 0.5%.

Quote

 

Mark Carney, the Bank’s governor, said last month he expected rates to increase “in the relatively near term”.

... “The market has been pricing in a November interest-rate hike at an 80%-90% probability since the start of October. The Bank of England is eager to undo the emergency rate cut made following the Brexit referendum last year, and the GDP release will bolster their case.”

...Last week the Bank of England’s deputy governor Jon Cunliffe described it as an “open question”.

The average variable-rate borrower will pay £198 more in annual repayments if Bank rate goes up to 0.5%, according to the online mortgage broker Trussle.  Someone borrowing £500,000 will typically have to find an extra £643 a year, according to the broker largemortgageloans.com.

...Savers:  The Bank of England’s term funding scheme provides banks with low-cost money, which can then be loaned to businesses to help boost the economy.  “Add this to quantitative easing and it’s easy to see why the high-street banks have plenty of cash, so are unlikely to lift savings rates to attract new customers in the immediate future.”

 


Although in a way I want the banks to have plenty of cash, but only so they can handle HPC.   Although in the market I'm only seeing loads of banners and advertisements pitching to would-be FTBs, such as that one where the new owner answers his door to the post-man for the first time, and is 'joyed-out' at getting post at his new house.  He chose to pay whatever seller wanted for it though.  Full continuation, or pullback in tighter more expensive lending.

Quote

Bland Unsight:  FLS is a means of recapitalising the banks so they are in some kind of shape to take the unavoidable correction of house prices (and other asset prices against which credit has been extended) which is the result of an ungodly and unresolved credit bubble. Hence FLS stays till they are so chock full of capital 

 

Edited by Venger
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1 hour ago, Venger said:

which can then be loaned to businesses to help boost the economy

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 

 

If that were true, why was access to it dependent on mortgage rates being cut !!!!

How many businesses got access to the free money????

 

Venger, watch the budget,  if property owning Hammond extends, replaces FLS/Term funding, just leave.  If they do this, they WILL NOT STOP, until everything is worthless.

 

If it is ended and rates start going up, then the collapse in prices is nailed on.  All those 40% deposits will be done, all that HTB1/HTB2 will be used to support the bankers/builders, all that low IR magic cash will be your for a mere 6% pa.  

 

You can see it coming a mile off.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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On 28/10/2017 at 7:43 PM, Castlevania said:

Wouldn't that factor in some element of credit risk?

Yes it would - anything that isn't risk free does. But the credit risk on short term bank deposits is considered to be tiny,so would be negligible in short term libor. 

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There's a good article in The Times (of a few days ago).

Just a few of the snippets.  We already all know that those with mortgages into the 'credit-crunch crisis' saw rates floored, and good years ahead, -vs- the pain of house prices falls, that otherwise would have occurred.  Homeowners matter/mattered far more.

(Although then prices zoomed upward again in many areas in the new-normal - from buyers paying more).

 

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7 hours ago, zugzwang said:

I know some people who work at one of the larger building societies in the Leeds area, I'll give you one guess.

Basically they're sh1te at what they do but they were slightly less sh1te than B&B or HBOS so they survived, and think they're a talented company prospering in difficult times, when we know in reality they're a [email protected] bank sucking on the teat of government. They get paid very well for state backed cronyists and incompetents.

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I woke up with a terrible feeling like all the rate rise hype is just another ploy to get people off cheap trackers onto more expensive fixed rates mortgages, and nothing else. it’s hard to believe they will raise this week, after all these years.

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13 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 

 

If that were true, why was access to it dependent on mortgage rates being cut !!!!

 

When the 25bp rate cut came in last year, a few banks decided not to pass the cut on to customers who pay the SVR - the banks know that people on the SVR either can't remortgage or won't for some other reason. So it was a great way for banks to increase their margin at the public's expense. 

The BoE clearly thought this was a bit off - the purpose of the cut was not to increase banks' profits,  and had a rummage around in its regulatory toolbox. Threatening to withhold the TFS money tree from those that did not pass on rate cuts got them to fall into line. 

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25 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

When the 25bp rate cut came in last year, a few banks decided not to pass the cut on to customers who pay the SVR - the banks know that people on the SVR either can't remortgage or won't for some other reason. So it was a great way for banks to increase their margin at the public's expense. 

The BoE clearly thought this was a bit off - the purpose of the cut was not to increase banks' profits,  and had a rummage around in its regulatory toolbox. Threatening to withhold the TFS money tree from those that did not pass on rate cuts got them to fall into line. 

Sure, we get all that, what people dont seem to get, and this is just my guess, is that the bankers saw an opportunity to inflate asset prices even more and they took it.

They've pushed up house prices even more and worse still stoked general inflation.

Making the problems we face much worse.

This wasn't done out of the goodness of their hearts of for the general economy, this was done out of greed.

The bankers will not stop until forced to, either by collapse or by a panicking government.

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59 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Sure, we get all that, what people dont seem to get, and this is just my guess, is that the bankers saw an opportunity to inflate asset prices even more and they took it.

They've pushed up house prices even more and worse still stoked general inflation.

Making the problems we face much worse.

This wasn't done out of the goodness of their hearts of for the general economy, this was done out of greed.

The bankers will not stop until forced to, either by collapse or by a panicking government.

£115bn of helicopter money (maybe more, the window's still open!) with love from M. Carney.

No questions asked. No debate in parliament. No mention of it made ever since.

That's magic!!

Spitting-small_trans++ECnBSB4T3tw7hRvCOR

 

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9 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

£115bn of helicopter money (maybe more, the window's still open!) with love from M. Carney.

No questions asked. No debate in parliament. No mention of it made ever since.

That's magic!!

Spitting-small_trans++ECnBSB4T3tw7hRvCOR

 

That's a very good point.

We have no say in our own currency/money supply.

The bankers magic it up and give it to....bankers.

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4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That's a very good point.

We have no say in our own currency/money supply.

The bankers magic it up and give it to....bankers.

I suspect this is going too far, but the debate is now open:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/19/british-banks-trusted-nationalise-city-profits-communities

Edited by Si1
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21 minutes ago, Si1 said:

The bankers should be getting worried.

I'd not say nationalise them, I'd say shut them down and arrest any wrong doers

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