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Who believes the BoE will raise rates in November ?


Who believes the BoE will raise rates in November ?  

193 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you believe the BoE will raise rates in November ?

    • Yes, nailed on
      36
    • No, are you out of your tiny mind
      99
    • Maybe, they've taken me in again
      56

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  • Poll closed on 10/31/2017 at 11:59 PM

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2 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

+1

An to just moan some more

Forget Brexit ever existed how would the £ normally do at .25% with inflation heading to 3% + and the USA already ahead in the curve.

remember in the olden days before brexit we used to rise rates and lower them to influence the value of the £

I can only assume shafting the £ has been the objective 

Shafting the population has been the objective, certainly done that. 

Brexit was supposed be done and dusted by June 2018. That's what was voted for not this bullkshit stay in policy adopted by the current bunch of idiots.

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3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I'm not convinced they will raise. Consumer facing businesses have been releasing profit warnings left right and centre over the past few months. I expect some words from Carney about being vigilant but that's it. 

I can't see that Carney has any real choice. They are now facing a possible run on the pound which would cause much more serious inflation. And it'd be inflation in the cost of things like fuel and food; the sort of things that most affect the poorest in society. Cheap mortgage rates are enjoyed by a few (rapidly approaching a minority). Inflation will affect everybody. I know which I'd be sacrificing if I wanted to stay in power beyond the next election, especially if they can easily blame it all on Brexit, which the government campaigned against!

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2 hours ago, oatbake said:

I can't see that Carney has any real choice. They are now facing a possible run on the pound which would cause much more serious inflation. And it'd be inflation in the cost of things like fuel and food; the sort of things that most affect the poorest in society. Cheap mortgage rates are enjoyed by a few (rapidly approaching a minority). Inflation will affect everybody. I know which I'd be sacrificing if I wanted to stay in power beyond the next election, especially if they can easily blame it all on Brexit, which the government campaigned against!

+1 and maybe squeeze bank margins.

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8 hours ago, Fence said:

I can't see that Carney has any real choice.

Yes he does. He can just leave rates where they are. Simples!

 

8 hours ago, Fence said:

They are now facing a possible run on the pound which would cause much more serious inflation.

We've already had a huge run on the pound after Brexit, and what did they do then? LOWER RATES:lol::lol::lol:

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15 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

Shafting the population has been the objective, certainly done that. 

Brexit was supposed be done and dusted by June 2018. That's what was voted for not this bullkshit stay in policy adopted by the current bunch of idiots.

In hindsight, it's pretty clear that the BOE shot their load too soon on Brexit when they cut rates. This time next year, we might be in a nightmare situation where the economy slows, we get a hard Brexit and the property market crashes.

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8 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

i guess we find out next week if they raise or not?

Maybe if they do go up the BBC will do a few features ? Why are they rising ? What does it mean ? Cut in a few quotes from Carney - some really technical economics quote or analysis and oh and I warned you :)  . But you warned us before....nothing happened :) 

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On 28/10/2017 at 6:39 AM, deadlyavenger said:

In a word....YES.

 

They know FLS/TermFundung is ending and they need savers money...again.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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Maybe he’ll announce a rate rise but schedule it to come in to effect next year or the year after.

Also why raise the full twenty five basis points, that would double rates overnight. They might chose to bump it a few point then wait a year or so to see how that works. We have to remember they’re about to try to reverse a mindset of not just theirs but the whole country. The recovery was predicated on encouraging borrowing and after ten years that message is going to reverse. I don’t see any middle ground after such a long time spent convincing the feckless there’s no need to worry just stick it on your plastic they are being told to wake up it’s tomorrow look at your card statement we lied and you’re going to pay. The fear is that they just stop spending. No wonder they’re worried history is about to show that rates should have been rebounding over a lower and small range rather than bing parked and ignored. 

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10 minutes ago, Blod said:

Maybe he’ll announce a rate rise but schedule it to come in to effect next year or the year after.

Also why raise the full twenty five basis points, that would double rates overnight. They might chose to bump it a few point then wait a year or so to see how that works. We have to remember they’re about to try to reverse a mindset of not just theirs but the whole country. The recovery was predicated on encouraging borrowing and after ten years that message is going to reverse. I don’t see any middle ground after such a long time spent convincing the feckless there’s no need to worry just stick it on your plastic they are being told to wake up it’s tomorrow look at your card statement we lied and you’re going to pay. The fear is that they just stop spending. No wonder they’re worried history is about to show that rates should have been rebounding over a lower and small range rather than bing parked and ignored. 

Not sure.

Credit cards and PCP payments have pretty chunky APRs.

The 2010 strategy of 'just a bit more borrowing..' has been a disaster and will cost somepeople are fortune.

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14 hours ago, Ash4781 said:

Maybe if they do go up the BBC will do a few features ? Why are they rising ? What does it mean ? Cut in a few quotes from Carney - some really technical economics quote or analysis and oh and I warned you :)  . But you warned us before....nothing happened :) 

#vileBBC narrative on raising interest rates

 

IR raise BAD because:

shoppers less confident, spend less into economy, "feelgood" factor disappears

credit card payments go up, shoppers able to buy less shopping on credit "feelgood" factor disappears

mortgage payments go up, homeowners have less disposable income to spend into the "feelgood" economy, economy suffers

people scared to take on more DEBT as the "feelgood" factor evaporates and families tighten purse strings, banks don't "feel so good"

student loan rates rise, students don't have the "feelgood" factor to take on a huge whopping DEBT which'll take a lifetime of their future costa wages to pay back

older homeowners who have gone into people farming to provide a pension will not be able to afford to service their BTL DEBTS and go on cruises, cruise companies won't feel good

 

IR raise GOOD because:

average saver will be £12.65 a year better off through increased savings rates, they might "feel good" for a second or two

 

#vileBBC the balanced state broadcaster

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9 minutes ago, thewig said:

 

 

IR raise GOOD because:

average saver will be £12.65 a year better off through increased savings rates, they might "feel good" for a second or two

 

#vileBBC the balanced state broadcaster

I'll be getting a lot worse off on my cash savings well into an interest rise cycle as my oldest fixes (currently at 3.0%) get rolled into lower rates even with a rare rise. I suspect homeowners on average will continue to get lower mortgage rates on average too, as older fixes get rolled into lower ones. Only standard variables will suffer. In truth people don't save on standard variables and people don't borrow on them either.

A rate rise at this stage is purely a flag to sentiment, nothing else. Zirp will still be zirp.

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34 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

I'll be getting a lot worse off on my cash savings well into an interest rise cycle as my oldest fixes (currently at 3.0%) get rolled into lower rates even with a rare rise. I suspect homeowners on average will continue to get lower mortgage rates on average too, as older fixes get rolled into lower ones. Only standard variables will suffer. In truth people don't save on standard variables and people don't borrow on them either.

A rate rise at this stage is purely a flag to sentiment, nothing else. Zirp will still be zirp.

There's still an estimated £30bn to be distributed from the TFS before it closes in Feb '18 which should keep a ceiling on 2 year fixes for a while yet. Plus, fewer than 43% of mortgages are actually variable these days. 0.25% is a non-event, truth be told. Zirp is forever.

Edited by zugzwang
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5 hours ago, Blod said:

Maybe he’ll announce a rate rise but schedule it to come in to effect next year or the year after.

Also why raise the full twenty five basis points, that would double rates overnight. They might chose to bump it a few point then wait a year or so to see how that works. We have to remember they’re about to try to reverse a mindset of not just theirs but the whole country. The recovery was predicated on encouraging borrowing and after ten years that message is going to reverse. I don’t see any middle ground after such a long time spent convincing the feckless there’s no need to worry just stick it on your plastic they are being told to wake up it’s tomorrow look at your card statement we lied and you’re going to pay. The fear is that they just stop spending. No wonder they’re worried history is about to show that rates should have been rebounding over a lower and small range rather than bing parked and ignored. 

Why halve them overnight last year?

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1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

Why raise them now? I've read it is the amount of consumer credit - anyone care to offer any other reason?

Or is it that they know the USA will pull away, and we have to move before we are left behind and are forced to raise in larger increments?

I don't see how any over indebted western country can 'pull away'. The word is that CBs are independent. IMO they're as independent as the tide and the moon.

No government is going to use their own central bank to meaningfully raise interest rates and saddle itself with (arguably already) unserviceable debt. They will not put themselves in a position where they declare bankruptcy.

The only path is down down down with the currency. As it has been for the last 100 years. Once a convenient level of inflation (as in proper inflation, not this retail/consumer prices bolleaux) has been reached, then interest rate rises can be genuinely on the table.

IMO...

Which means nothing except in my world...

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