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Si1

Sentiment currently

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Very positive where I am. Aunties and uncles in Lancashire saying property beats shares because you can lose everything on shares and not property. Spoke to college students who said the best way to make money is property. Some friends stretched to a shiny new build because they will make so much money from it. West Yorkshire and south Lancashire.

Edited by Si1

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Here on the Essex Suffolk border, people are as manic as ever. Even the young uns who have no savings, pension, secure employment or any chance of buying a house without taking on crippling debt still celebrate high house prices.

 

  I think what the government did in 2008 has made everyone think that it's a one way bet.

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Very positive where I am. Aunties and uncles in Lancashire saying property beats shares because you can lose everything on shares and not property. Spoke to college students who said the best way to make money is property. Some friends stretched to a shiny new build because they will make so much money from it. West Yorkshire and south Lancashire.

I remember when prices dived off a cliff in the 1990s and it was a fair while before people stopped saying you can never lose on bricks and mortar etc. They were so used to thinking like that - they did see the downturn but just brushed it off as the market pausing for a mild breather. Eventually it hit them of course and overnight there were loads of "Mr & Mrs Couple are in negative equity and don't know where to turn" handwringing stories in the press.

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A guy in a group of friends I know has just bought a 1.5bed flat in Streatham for £650k! Both bedrooms too small for a bed and a wardrobe! Ok huge living area and garden flat with bi-folding doors but seriously?! 

The entire group thinks I am crazy and that I'll be locked out of the market forever if I don't buy now. Property only ever goes up you see.

I'm happy to.miss out if that is the case. I'll simply move back to my home town and commute if I get desperate to buy for some unknown reason. Having said that I am fed up of renting, landlord just decided to sell so have to move in 4 weeks... £1.25m for a 3 bed flat in Poplar... Let's see if it sells, one viewing so far. I'm watching closely!

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44 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Very positive where I am. Aunties and uncles in Lancashire saying property beats shares because you can lose everything on shares and not property. Spoke to college students who said the best way to make money is property. Some friends stretched to a shiny new build because they will make so much money from it. West Yorkshire and south Lancashire.

Thats percieved, notinthemarket sentiment.

Try talking to someone trying to sell.

All I hear is X is trying to sell theur house but noone can buy it. Or cant sell it.

Put the postcodes of these people into houseprices.io and chck the number of transaction. Most people over 60 are more likely to die before selling their house.

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The Bank of England is QEing into the economy, RPI is 1500%  larger the the BOE interest rate, In a good month deficit spending is £6,000,000,000

As long as this free money situation persists sentiment will be good, but at some point this must end. The question to ask yourself is what would house prices and the UK economy be like without this support?

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The Sentiment is also very strong around low incomes, Within 50 Miles of London the House Price to Income Ratio is hovering between 10 and 20 for most average employed. 

Also remember what we are hearing now is exactly what we were hearing until months before 2007 crash. 

AFTER 6-9 YEARS OF GROWTH A RECESSION IS INVITABLE, JOB LOSSES WILL BE MASSIVE AS LONDON LOOSES ITS STATUS OF GATEWAY TO EUROPE FOR GLOBAL CORPORATE AND HQS RELOCATE TO EU, AND THE RATES WILL RISE MANY TIMES OVER NEXT FEW YEARS.

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4 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Put the postcodes of these people into houseprices.io and chck the number of transaction. Most people over 60 are more likely to die before selling their house.

i have found exactly this.

The only stuff that sells is at a reasonably affordable price. Yet anything advertised is bat-shit-mental prices. My only guess is that everyone is offering 30% less than asking and getting it accepted. But i'm worried if i did this agents would block me. How an i supposed to work out what actual selling prices are?, i'm just endlessly saving.

For example most sold places are average 170-180k. Most asking prices are 210-230k.  

Yet, there are literally hundreds of houses around 300% or 400% more expensive that anything that has sold in the whole city for sale in years (in this case Plymouth). I suspect these places were never bought anywhere near the asking prices, but instead have just been held for 30-40 years by boomers.

Whole sections of great stock of housing had been removed from the market by the boomers, leaving the following generations to bid up the prices of the terrible remaining stock.

So when these grand-old houses actually come up for sale, there just is no market for them at all. Houses half the size are already well above what the average person can afford to pay.

I suspect we will continue to see a massively compressed market at the bottom end, where an extra 5k gets you exponentially more house.

Frustrating to get a crummy 3 bed house at say 200k when 250k gets you 3 extra bedrooms and a swimming pool. 

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45 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Try talking to someone trying to sell.

All I hear is X is trying to sell theur house but noone can buy it. Or cant sell it.

Exactly... Some properties have been reduce 3-4 times in last 6 months and are still there.

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37 minutes ago, Giraffe said:

but at some point this must end.

Yep, without a doubt.

There is a storm coming at some stage. It's just a matter of when. Post Brexit would be my guess (but it is just that).

The whole UK economy is just smoke and mirrors.

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2017/09/18/106-crisis-a-forum/

http://truepublica.org.uk/united-kingdom/the-uk-pensions-crisis-from-prophesy-to-reality/

https://www.opendemocracy.net/neweconomics/trade-empire-2-0-and-the-lies-we-tell-ourselves/

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Thats percieved, notinthemarket sentiment.

Try talking to someone trying to sell.

All I hear is X is trying to sell theur house but noone can buy it. Or cant sell it.

Put the postcodes of these people into houseprices.io and chck the number of transaction. Most people over 60 are more likely to die before selling their house.

Could we make a distinction between sentiment and demand?

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1 minute ago, Si1 said:

Could we make a distinction between sentiment and demand?

More supply of mortgage credit.

MMR has knacked it. Removing io mortgages, No self cert.

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Low inventory on market in areas I search, very very peaky prices, and lots of Sold STC.

Buyers pushing and falling over themselves.

Churn of older money where little debt required in process of buying.

Then those mortgaged debt.   Chuffed to piece to pass lenders affordability checks, after viewings on new peak asking price houses.

Low fixes available, so "we can afford it" and work hard to get mortgage down with low interest rates in first few years vs renting.

"If prices fall after few years, then didn't have to pay more expensive dead-rent vs mortgage, so savings there."

A market.  Everyone to take their market positions. 

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Two people where i work just bought property to do up and sell. Two other friends retained old property as a rental when buying a new one. Sentiment is high. I contrast that with the six months before financial crisis, lots of grumbling about the mortgage, particularly when rates hit 5 percent. The british are infatuated with property and the only thing that will change that is a lot of people losing money on it. There is only one remedy for greed. 

 

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Have these people not been reading the news in any shape or fashion?

The collapse will come as a surprise to them.

 

It sounds to me like Hammond is about to try and kick the can one more time....not knowing the can is full of nitroglycerine this time :lol:

 

The current state of affairs is far beyond the madness of 2007.

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Sentiment is high, agreed - in my areas of interest.

So much about how 'We can afford mortgage'  (instead of whether it represents buying value... and my contact with such people (through work) either buying for the first time, or trading up, buying houses generally with asking prices of £375,000 to £500,000+ )

'Prices not that likely to fall much in good areas'

'You still renting hah?  Dead money, should have bought.'

as they are happy to pass lenders affordability tests, and dream of being in nice lovely home, paying peak price.

'Going to work hard to get mortgage down in first few years, because got low fix.'

Market really.

Quote

It's a terrible time to buy when interest rates are low, like now. House prices rose as interest rates fell, and house prices will fall if interest rates rise without a strong increase in jobs, because a fixed monthly payment covers a smaller mortgage at a higher interest rate. Since interest rates have nowhere to go but up, prices have nowhere to go but down.

It is far better to pay a low price with a high interest rate than a high price with a low interest rate, even if the mortgage payment is the same either way.

A low price lets you pay it all off instead of being a debt-slave for the rest of your life.

As interest rates fall, real estate prices generally rise.

Paying a high price now may trap you "under water", meaning you'll have a mortgage debt larger than the value of the house. Then you will not be able to refinance because then you'll have no equity, and will not be able to sell without a loss. Even if you get a long-term fixed rate mortgage, when rates inevitably go up the value of your property will go down. Paying a low price minimizes your damage.

You can refinance when you buy at a higher interest rate and rates fall, but current buyers will never be able to refinance for a lower interest rate in the future. Rates are already as low as they can go.

-Patrick Killelea

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Venger said:

Sentiment is high, agreed - in my areas of interest.

So much about how 'We can afford mortgage'  (instead of whether it represents buying value... and my contact with such people (through work) either buying for the first time, or trading up, buying houses generally with asking prices of £375,000 to £500,000+ )

'Prices not that likely to fall much in good areas'

'You still renting hah?  Dead money, should have bought.'

as they are happy to pass lenders affordability tests, and dream of being in nice lovely home, paying peak price.

'Going to work hard to get mortgage down in first few years, because got low fix.'

Market really.

 

Bankers have a nation by a he ********. I wonder what they'll do next....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Put it this way...it'll involve a pound if flesh.

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3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Bankers have a nation by a he ********. I wonder what they'll do next....

Put it this way...it'll involve a pound if flesh.

Bankers have a nation by he *******?  

I will guess at the meaning, but only to some extent.

Come on, so many of the owning and buying punters love it.  They are fully complicit. 

All these stories of people who bought in early 90s for £120K, and are staying put for market to 'recover', or looking to sell but don't want to drop below £795,000 as an EA has asked them to, and 'hope things get better' (to achieve higher prices.)

No mortgage.  That £700,000 wealth of houses is all theirs to turn into cash if they want to.  It doesn't belong to the bank.  It's the wealth of an individual who makes their own market decisions.  To hold, or sell.   And plenty of buyers.   Each of us has our own market view.  "You still renting... can pay down debt hard on my low fix, best buy I think." 

 They have their own minds to be respected.  Working couples bringing in good money.  Good times forever.  Can afford it (now).   Then the owning side, low inventory on market, feeling hard done by at having to think of cutting asking price below £795,000 on a house that has ballooned in value since they bought in early/mid 90s, and actually still many houses selling in their price range, with buyers out there.  Market.

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Went in search of some things to steady myself in recent times, keep my sanity (S24 still grounds me for that's so good)  with quite a bit of contact with people buying.

For many many years buying side have found themselves correct and seen much more HPI in many areas, vs renting losers.

The bankers next move Count?   When?   I was wondering to myself when was the last time any foreign power dared criticise UK over anything such as its view of capitalism, but many other countries also in deep, with ECB printing at €Billions and Billions a month, and US having housing wild prices in San Fran and SoCal.

Bankers to get flesh Count?  Seems to me that bankers are expected to pay-out compensation, be viewed as baddies forever, and with spin as it is, and buying and owner side all innocent flowers.  Although I do know something of a couple bank actions being forced against delinquent borrowers at higher end of the market, but can't make mention of it here, and even then, are very isolated cases.

Quote

 

James Ferguson:- interview of 2014

@ 17:40-ish: I think all bubbles should be sold.  The reasons why bubbles persist is not because people don't appreciate they are bubbles - they all know they are bubbles - think back to the Dot Com, there's a good example. We all knew it was a bubble; we didn't care.  The reason we didn't care is very rational, we didn't care because you could make more money in the near term - actually 2 reasons - you could make more money in the near term than you could make in a normal market over 5 years, and two, "It didn't matter because I would get out in time'.

The point about a market is you can'tMathematically you can'tOnly a minority of people can get out in timeBy definition.

(To the assumption Gov would stop it with everything it can)... You have remarkable faith in the ability of governments.

http://videos.bigpic....uk/debate.html

James Ferguson, smarter by a long way, recognising the cycle has been overridden (that we didn't have a crash because Govs responded with extreme measures)... saying we're at a market top, knowing that very few sellers get out at 90% peak when the market turns -------->  but also winding me up, recounting houses he's bought cheap in the early 90s with his property companies, £57,000 yielding 16-18%...  "now worth over a million and some"; ...houses as the investment class (grrrr). 

 

 

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Buyer sentiment has clearly changed here (Essex/London border)

Spoke to an agent friend of mine and they usually have a ratio of 50% for sale / 50% sold on their books but is now 75% for sale 25% sold.. Very unusual for this time of year apparently.

 

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4 hours ago, A third of everything said:

I'm on the Essex/London borders and last month on rightmove only 9 out 56 houses added or reduced that month went under offer or SSTC so locally I'd assume people are hesitant (and the houses are overpriced shite)

Where exactly are you? I am in Hornchurch and people are still saying housing all the way ?

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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