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rantnrave

Upbeat survey shows big surge in volume of properties coming to market

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London and SE leading the way. Taken from an article on EAToday. Analysis doesn't of course mention what a boost in supply normally does to prices, or whether the supply is due to landlords giving up!

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/10/upbeat-survey-shows-big-surge-in-properties-coming-to-market

 

An upbeat survey by online website HouseSimple claims there has been a 20 per cent increase in the number of homes coming to the market in the past month - and a 44 per cent rise in London.

The agency says the market appears to have shrugged off what it calls ‘Brexit blues’; in its monthly analysis of properties listed for sale on website Home, HouseSimple says new property listings were up 20.2 per cent in September compared to August; in London there was a 44.4 per cent surge in the same timeframe. 

These rises are the biggest seen in just a month for around two years.

Two thirds of the local markets in 100 towns and cities analysed by the agency saw an increase in the number of new properties taken on by estate agents in September over August, with new listings up by no less than 71 per cent in Oxford and 60 per cent in Torquay. 

The top five biggest supply risers in September were all in the south of the country.

Within London, new property supply rose an astonishing 44.4 per cent in this period with every borough seeing a double digit rise in new listings.

Hammersmith and Fulham, which has seen some of biggest falls in house prices of any borough over the past few months, has seen a deluge of new sellers in September. Listings were up 72.5 per cent.

Kensington and Chelsea saw an even bigger hike in new property listings, more than doubling (108.5 per cent).

HouseSimple chief executive Alex Gosling says this is the first sign that sellers may be moving on from the June General Election. “Although we are still no clearer as to how a post-Brexit Britain might look, enough time has passed since Article 50 was triggered, and the country hasn’t plummeted into recession. Property prices have remained reassuringly stable and that has probably given sellers the confidence boost they needed to re-engage with the market” he says.

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Article is encoded with 444 = market is gearing up for next leg up, this is how these EAs communicate to each other and manage to buy now before they miss out.

 

 

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Anecdotally (rightmove) highest number of houses for sale in CM23 since Aug 2013, and flats since Feb 2013. Total properties up 17% yoy, houses 22%, flats 7%.

Supply (or rate of supply change) generally leads [inverse] rate of price change, so it's an encouraging trend if sustained. There's been ~9 month lag between supply & pricing; at least in the area I look at.

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2 hours ago, Si1 said:

EA gobshite. Seriously, do these guys talk to their kids like this?

Theyd have to have sex with a woman first.

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2 hours ago, houseface2000 said:

Yeah seeing increased supply in Oxford. The investors city of choice. Hopefully prices will start to drift down to reflect local wages which are low. 

Are there any towns in the UK where wages are high?

Everywhere inc. London tops out at ~27k.

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18 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Are there any towns in the UK where wages are high?

Everywhere inc. London tops out at ~27k.

True, the thing with Oxford is prices are crazier than other tows. £350 for a pokey 1 bed flat with most wages £20k shop work and admin jobs wo k the uni, council or hospital. But investors were buying almost everything wven with crappy 2-3% yields. 

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Bust out the champagne says City AM:

http://www.cityam.com/273380/uk-house-prices-just-grew-their-fastest-since-february

Quote

The average UK house price hit £225,109 in September - its highest on record, according to a closely-watched survey.

UK house prices continue to be supported by an ongoing shortage of properties for sale and solid growth in full-time employment.

 

You see it's a shortage of property and the solid wages in stable full time jobs we have to thank for this good news. So something is either very wrong or nobody has a clue whats going on.

Edited by JustAnotherProle

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4 hours ago, Si1 said:

EA gobshite. Seriously, do these guys talk to their kids like this?

if these guys lie easier than they breathe, then they probably berate their children every day not to lie. EAs are so deep into the matrix they're lost at sea.

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3 hours ago, thewig said:

Article is encoded with 444 = market is gearing up for next leg up, this is how these EAs communicate to each other and manage to buy now before they miss out.

 

 

Eh?

What does this mean?

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1 minute ago, janch said:

Eh?

What does this mean?

It is the wig taking the Micky i think. There is a lot of paranoia about stats being made up if it doesn't show a crash is in progress on here.

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Clearly the hpi has reached the north and southwest. Went to a funeral in Exeter and they were sadly all talking about how much houses on there street had shot up and were going for. Where in Oxford we've been falling for over a year

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6 hours ago, spyguy said:

Are there any towns in the UK where wages are high?

Everywhere inc. London tops out at ~27k.

Yes and more bad new on UK productivity today...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-economy/uk-productivity-falls-at-joint-fastest-rate-since-2013-ons-idUSKBN1CB19A

surprised not been mentioned on this site somewhere unless I missed it..isn't productivity ultimately the foundation for rents and price of housing...?  If productivity is falling and house prices increasing how do the ends meet other than through debt and that is unsustainable....as ever with the UK economy it is la la land.

 

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4 hours ago, Mr Banks said:

It is the wig taking the Micky i think. There is a lot of paranoia about stats being made up if it doesn't show a crash is in progress on here.

It's not paranoia, it happens. 

Why would "below market value" sales be excluded from the LR data if not to massage average prices in an upward direction?

And don't get me started on the EA manipulation of the Rightmove index.

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Is September normally a pickup time of year, or 'surge' time for bringing homes to market?

Quote

.....HouseSimple claims there has been a 20 per cent increase in the number of homes coming to the market in the past month - and a 44 per cent rise in London.  ....Within London, new property supply rose an astonishing 44.4 per cent in this period with every borough seeing a double digit rise in new listings.

Never heard of the source before.

In the olden days (<1997) wasn't there some line of thought to buy in Winter when there's fewer buyers? (I could have made that up).  Or Winter slow time.. ?

Main times of year for new listings.   It's something I've never tracked, or got a good position on, mainly because been so many years of fury to buy/BTLers, no matter what time of year.

I read a few HPIer's MSM story about taking home off market for the Winter and to 'relaunch it in Spring' in search of the price they wanted.

There a house in an area I track that came to market just a few days ago.  They tried to sell it from Spring 2015, cut price a bit over the next 12 months, then it dropped off the market.  It's back on with a chunky cut than before they took it off the market.   Still very expensive.  Over £500K but less than £600K.  They bought it for £200K in year 2000/01.

Just seeing a few more homes in £400K+ price range trickle onto market in recent days, but maybe my imagination, and doesn't tell me anything when many other homes in same price range are SoldSTC.

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On 06/10/2017 at 1:24 PM, Mr Banks said:

It is the wig taking the Micky i think. There is a lot of paranoia about stats being made up if it doesn't show a crash is in progress on here.

There is no paranoia, it's logical that if sales deemed below market are not included, the stat will take longer to reflect the market. Not specific to LR but whenever EA or any salesman saying I will give you discounted price it most likely is the going rate. Any 'LL saying he is letting for below market rent that again is BS, it just means after risk assessment of other factors that is the best he could achieve which then IS market rent. 

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11 hours ago, giggler000 said:

i can't see rates rising while we've got carny in the printing seat

Haven't seen this posted elsewhere - not sure which is the best thread, but seems an appropriate post regarding this comment about Carney

Bank of England under pressure for interest rate rise after ONS error

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/09/interest-rate-rise-ons-labour-cost-bank-of-england

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10 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Haven't seen this posted elsewhere - not sure which is the best thread, but seems an appropriate post regarding this comment about Carney

Bank of England under pressure for interest rate rise after ONS error

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/09/interest-rate-rise-ons-labour-cost-bank-of-england

Quote from the article:

 

The Office for National Statistics said on Monday it made a mistake in its original calculations for the growth in unit labour costs, which is the price paid by employers to produce a given amount of economic output. The measure stood at an annual 2.4% in the three months to June, as opposed to the 1.6% initially published by the country’s official statistics body on Friday.

 

So.... a mere 50% out. Who are these clowns? That said, I do think we are being warmed up a rate rise in November with this drip drip of news recently.

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  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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