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ARENAPUA

Moneyweek 3rd Oct 2017

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Good straight talking article.

http://moneyweek.com/housing-crisis-politicians-stupid-ideas/

But suggests the only real way to bring house prices down is for interest rates to increase to 7% (off the cuff remark I know).

I've been waiting for 14 years for house prices to come down.  I felt relieved and justified when the 2008 crash came and we suffered the drop and was looking forward to the long predicted and expected 'dead cat bounce' before Help to Buy came along and (most importantly psychologically) put the sheeple back into buying frenzy mode.

Thing is, I'm in my mid forties now.  If there is going to be a correction, it's going to extremely gradual and very prolonged over many many years I feel.

I can't see any outlier that is going to cause a 'crash' and at best interest rates are going to rise at only 0.25% per quarter. I can't see anything that will cause a velocity greater than that.

I have been fortunate to amass savings while waiting this frickin long crash which will mean I don't have to over stretch myself.  Although I am extremely angry and resentful at the ridiculous prices we currently see, I can't really afford to continue to wait much longer for that long desired 'drop'.

To that end I will buy a house over the 18 months regardless trying to leverage any small actualised drop into my negotiating position with vendors.

i just don't think there is going to be a swift antidote to this, especially when I still hear the (other) old adage that this is all about low house building volumes and wants that's fixed things will start to normalise...

 

 

 

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The best you can do is protect yourself. Read DurhamBorn's excellent thread, and profit from the chaos that will ensue. Every time they double-down with their hare-brained schemes to prop up the housing market economy, they bring the endgame closer and its fallout more devastating.

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6 hours ago, ARENAPUA said:

Good straight talking article.

http://moneyweek.com/housing-crisis-politicians-stupid-ideas/

But suggests the only real way to bring house prices down is for interest rates to increase to 7% (off the cuff remark I know).

I've been waiting for 14 years for house prices to come down.  I felt relieved and justified when the 2008 crash came and we suffered the drop and was looking forward to the long predicted and expected 'dead cat bounce' before Help to Buy came along and (most importantly psychologically) put the sheeple back into buying frenzy mode.

Thing is, I'm in my mid forties now.  If there is going to be a correction, it's going to extremely gradual and very prolonged over many many years I feel.

I can't see any outlier that is going to cause a 'crash' and at best interest rates are going to rise at only 0.25% per quarter. I can't see anything that will cause a velocity greater than that.

I have been fortunate to amass savings while waiting this frickin long crash which will mean I don't have to over stretch myself.  Although I am extremely angry and resentful at the ridiculous prices we currently see, I can't really afford to continue to wait much longer for that long desired 'drop'.

To that end I will buy a house over the 18 months regardless trying to leverage any small actualised drop into my negotiating position with vendors.

i just don't think there is going to be a swift antidote to this, especially when I still hear the (other) old adage that this is all about low house building volumes and wants that's fixed things will start to normalise...

 

 

 

I think you will grab a bargain

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13 minutes ago, Si1 said:

No

I'm 45 in two months time so if I rush out today and take on a 25 year mortgage I will be making repayments until I am 70... this is a critical factor to me.

Every day longer that I wait is a day taken from my retirement.

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39 minutes ago, Mapatasy said:

I'm 45 in two months time so if I rush out today and take on a 25 year mortgage I will be making repayments until I am 70... this is a critical factor to me.

Every day longer that I wait is a day taken from my retirement.

+1

We completed on our house five weeks before I turned 35 (two months ago now). Same thought process as you though regarding age/retirement and mortgage lenders do have a maximum age too. Around here the Brexit vote seemed to take the wind out of the sails of the market. Prior to the vote I doubt I would have even got a viewing on the place we bought, let alone getting anything like the deal we got on it. 

Like you we had been saving for a long time and managed 15% deposit on a house needing a lot of TLC (and in some cases a lot more!). I'm of the opinion that the modernising work I do to the house is adding value and once we come off the fixed rate we'll at worst have stayed level on the LTV even if the market goes against us. This is important since LTV greater than 85% starts to attract much higher interest rates. 

If you go for it and you're determined you'll be able to clear the mortgage before you're 70 so I wish you luck and happy hunting :).

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Totally agree. I’m approaching 40 and decided I can’t wait any longer. I’ve amassed a decent nest egg and what little hope there was of a crash has all but gone with the latest Htb pump. 

All new builds in my area are snapped up off plan before show Home built. IMO it will take years for the London gains to fall out of system and even if interest rates hit 5% next month it would be years before there were forced sellers.

had enough of paying £1k a month to mow another mans lawn

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Just an alternative thought for those of us of a certain age.  Maybe think about spending the remaining time planning to be able to retire early.  There are still cheap areas to buy because of little work.  Just an contrarian idea.  Certainly not for everyone.  The web has a fair amount of info.   

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4 hours ago, Mapatasy said:

I'm 45 in two months time so if I rush out today and take on a 25 year mortgage I will be making repayments until I am 70... this is a critical factor to me.

Every day longer that I wait is a day taken from my retirement.

But when you're able to buy the same house 50-70% cheaper, won't you be able to pay the mortgage down much quicker?

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41 minutes ago, Loving The Crash said:

But when you're able to buy the same house 50-70% cheaper, won't you be able to pay the mortgage down much quicker?

This, as well as other investable assets being available.

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4 hours ago, Mapatasy said:

I'm 45 in two months time so if I rush out today and take on a 25 year mortgage I will be making repayments until I am 70... this is a critical factor to me.

Every day longer that I wait is a day taken from my retirement.

No

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1 hour ago, Loving The Crash said:

But when you're able to buy the same house 50-70% cheaper, won't you be able to pay the mortgage down much quicker?

Wonder what kind of yield a landlord would get from a 70% drop? 12%?

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Personally I think anybody over 30 taking on a 25yr mortgage and planning on taking that long to pay it off is crazy. I'd rather live in a van than condemn myself to spending a year longer than I have to trapped in work.

If you've not got FIRE I'm the bag by the time the kids are grown up, liquidate everything and piss it away on drugs and whores until you're destitute and incompetent, then go on the sick.

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2 hours ago, Loving The Crash said:

But when you're able to buy the same house 50-70% cheaper, won't you be able to pay the mortgage down much quicker?

When will that be? 

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1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

Personally I think anybody over 30 taking on a 25yr mortgage and planning on taking that long to pay it off is crazy. I'd rather live in a van than condemn myself to spending a year longer than I have to trapped in work.

If you've not got FIRE I'm the bag by the time the kids are grown up, liquidate everything and piss it away on drugs and whores until you're destitute and incompetent, then go on the sick.

That my plan a too ?

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2 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Personally I think anybody over 30 taking on a 25yr mortgage and planning on taking that long to pay it off is crazy. I'd rather live in a van than condemn myself to spending a year longer than I have to trapped in work.

If you've not got FIRE I'm the bag by the time the kids are grown up, liquidate everything and piss it away on drugs and whores until you're destitute and incompetent, then go on the sick.

When I turned 30, 15 years ago, I belived we were drawing near the top of HPI and I foresaw the ‘inevitable’ downturn. 

I should have been proved right. My no-brainer understanding of economic cycles should have paid off. 

Whilst my dumb ass mates were buying at the top of the cycle I stood firm. £64k was an insane amount of money to pay for a 3 storey house in Bristol that 12 years later would have a perceived value of considerably more than half a million pounds even after the grounds had been sold for development.

What I didn’t anticipate fully was financialisation and the effects of it. I didn’t anticipate how corrupt the system would be allowed to become.

We are all on the same side, we all know the truth. Problem is I’ve got a family now and living in a van is not an option.

When a system has been corrupted by financialisation as much as our current system has... don’t count on anything accept the flow of money to continue flowing in the same direction.

There is going to be a biblical crash... I’ve run out of time waiting for it.

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I think what’s different this time is people are really on the cusp of pitch forks and torches.. debt is so high, cost of rent/mortgage is so high..

we are one incident away from JD sport having all the trainers stolen again.. that’s how mad people are! 

If something does not change Corbyn will be in power in 4 years.. see what he makes of it all.. he either fixes the problem crashing house prices and rents!

or he stuffs it all up, crashing house prices and rent! 

Either way I recon they are going down! 

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5 minutes ago, macca13 said:

I think what’s different this time is people are really on the cusp of pitch forks and torches.. debt is so high, cost of rent/mortgage is so high..

we are one incident away from JD sport having all the trainers stolen again.. that’s how mad people are! 

+1

Not going to happen if X Factor is on though.

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52 minutes ago, Mapatasy said:

When I turned 30, 15 years ago, I belived we were drawing near the top of HPI and I foresaw the ‘inevitable’ downturn. 

I should have been proved right. My no-brainer understanding of economic cycles should have paid off. 

Whilst my dumb ass mates were buying at the top of the cycle I stood firm. £64k was an insane amount of money to pay for a 3 storey house in Bristol that 12 years later would have a perceived value of considerably more than half a million pounds even after the grounds had been sold for development.

What I didn’t anticipate fully was financialisation and the effects of it. I didn’t anticipate how corrupt the system would be allowed to become.

We are all on the same side, we all know the truth. Problem is I’ve got a family now and living in a van is not an option.

When a system has been corrupted by financialisation as much as our current system has... don’t count on anything accept the flow of money to continue flowing in the same direction.

There is going to be a biblical crash... I’ve run out of time waiting for it.

Expecting for house prices to become realistic is natural.

But in this country, every fundamental of economics policy has been destroyed.

The BoE policy is defying the gravity of the crisis and still turbo charging and upholding the shaky building.

In any other country, bankers would have atleast considered a small rate rise with this kind of housing crisis.

But in this country, its business as usual.

Their policy is to make assets costlier, make young people's salaries worthless.

Even if Tories promise a million social homes, I wont trust them.

Jezza or UKIP. No other options please.

Shame Nigel left too early. I've only Jezza as default option now.

Living in a safe Tory seat, but more than happy to slash their majority by 1 with my vote for Jezza.

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@ARENAPUA I understand your pain and I had gone through it over last 7 years.

Its humiliating to wait for a rate rise for such a long time.

Brown & Osborne should be deported from UK along with Carney.

I'm 35 and waited for last 7 years before buying this year.

The houses which I've seen for £290k in Milton Keynes in 2013 are now selling for £450k.

God save UK.

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I  took 20 year mortgage instead of 25 years as  I wan to prepay as much as possible.

Prepaying £600 more per month is showing good result and I can reduce mortgage term further next year.

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To buy a 3 bed in £250k budget, I searched in Dartford, Milton Keynes, Erith, Bedford, Manchester, Luton, Harlow.

Most of the times new builds are out of school catchment areas and old houses in catchment areas are costly.

In the end settled for Folkestone even though its far from London but commutable with HS1.

Lost patience after 7 years of living at the mercy of fat BTL landlords.

Sometimes landlord suddenly decided to sell and started viewings even in evening at 6:30 P.M.

Weekends is like a theatre show with open houseday.

It tested my nerve and decided to get out of this rental trap and now some relief.

But still mortgage is there, good to see paying 60% of my monthly payment towards principal amount, so that's reducing the debt mountain slowly.

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I'm sure most of people will realize how important is to have a socialist leader to address the imbalance in society we have today.

Socialism has its uses when capitalism goes ape s**t and people loose trust in Govt and confidence in society.

Fergus Wilson is a by product of unregulated capitalism.

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  • 294 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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