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Robert Peston's: Tory Party Conference 2017

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Robert Peston's take on the conservative party conference, from his Facebook page. Some very interesting inside views from Tory members:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1925468174444585&id=1498276767163730

"I've never known a wall of police, private security and steel fences quite as impermeable as what surrounds the Conservative Party conference in Manchester. 

It creates the impression of a party in a bunker, cut off from the rest of the UK - and is a very unfortunate metaphor for the state of the government. 

To their credit, the Tory members here are acutely aware of the mess their ministers and their prime minster are in - even if the cabinet itself is still struggling to come to terms with the magnitude of the task ahead.

Those members are not remotely shy in coming to chat with me, and they typically want to get three things off their respective chests:

1) they want Boris Johnson locked in a cupboard and deprived of any means of communication, because they fear that nobody will listen to the plans the government has for the country when the Boris Vs Theresa Show is being screened in prime time;

2) they are sick to the back teeth of theological arguments about what Brexit should be, and just want it done in as painless a way as possible;

3) they think it's great that the prime minister is making the case all over again for capitalism and the market-based economy, but they fear it is probably pointless when their children and grandchildren have almost no hope of ever acquiring any serious capital.

Or to put it another way, if they want to hear one thing from the prime minister this week it is about how to persuade voters, or at least those under 40, that they can acquire the kind of financial "stake" in the country that would give them a reason to prefer the Tories' market solutions over Labour's public-sector ones. 

This isn't rocket science. More than anything else Tory members want to see an ambitious programme of housebuilding - with the homes going exclusively to those on lower incomes (and not foreign investors).

When I interviewed the Chancellor Philip Hammond this morning he volunteered that yesterday's announcement of the £10bn expansion of the "help-to-buy" scheme - which increases the borrowing power of first time buyers to help them meet the hugely inflated prices of British properties - doesn't go nearly far enough

He doesn't demur that a much bolder housing strategy is needed. If that isn't announced by the PM on Wednesday, a lot of people here will question why they devote their lives to the Tory cause."

Sounds interesting!!!

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Until we on HPC can admit what the crisis actually is I don’t hold hope that political classes will. The meme of building more homes is used as a fig leaf to cover real crisis, housing costs. The title of this gives a clue as what would sort the problem. I fear the crisis is going to deepen as more new builds fail to sell and the political classes offer more support for the house builders.

The public need to loose all confidence in the housing market and trigger the much need reset. Maybe we will get a rate rise of a quarter of one percent and that wakes people up.

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19 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

eh ?

Have you missed something ?

The primary cause is housing act 1996 allowing BTL to become attractive, thus property became investments.

Lack of building and low IR/QE are secondary. IMHO.

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If anyone ever wondered what the sound of a stable door being closed after the horse has bolted* sounds like, now they know.

* = The horse left sometime in 2006, and is now living in Brazil with a number of concubines.

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20 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

The primary cause is housing act 1996 allowing BTL to become attractive, thus property became investments.

Lack of building and low IR/QE are secondary. IMHO.

Why the govt. not reversing the act 1996 to discourage BTL.

Sorry being naive what is act

Edited by suresh786

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50 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

The primary cause is housing act 1996 allowing BTL to become attractive, thus property became investments.

Lack of building and low IR/QE are secondary. IMHO.

Interest rates are a critical factor, lack of building is barely a factor at all.

As I understand it, house building tracks sales volume, basically.

Edited by DrBuyToLeech

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1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

If anyone ever wondered what the sound of a stable door being closed after the horse has bolted* sounds like, now they know.

* = The horse left sometime in 2006, and is now living in Brazil with a number of concubines.

Sounds a bit prickly...

image.jpeg.7cf943769cc8d5166c209e696ada41ac.jpeg

 

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1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Astonishing, if true. And Ed Milliband's 'Marxist' energy cap to boot!

From unelectable to irresistible, Corbyn really has shifted the entire political landscape leftwards.

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32 minutes ago, DrBuyToLeech said:

Interest rates are a critical factor, lack of building is barely a factor at all.

As I understand it, house building tracks sales volume, basically.

This is right. What amazes me is that it's always "we need to build more" and then houses will be cheaper. They won't. They'll be cheaper if IRs are at an anywhere reasonable level- which they haven't been for years. We do not have a housing shortage overall; there may be some shortage in some areas but I would think that many of these would be questionable.

Another intriguing question: if we do get less immigration as a result of Brexit then we will need less housing so why the mania for new building just when the market may be on the point of turning down?

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2 hours ago, Si1 said:

"In a second popular move, Mrs May will also announce in her speech that she is enforcing her long promised energy price cap"

She would, I've already capped mine until 2021.

As usual, those of us who look after ourselves, without relying on the state, get shafted :(.

Edited by Bruce Banner

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18 minutes ago, crouch said:

This is right. What amazes me is that it's always "we need to build more" and then houses will be cheaper. They won't. They'll be cheaper if IRs are at an anywhere reasonable level- which they haven't been for years. We do not have a housing shortage overall; there may be some shortage in some areas but I would think that many of these would be questionable.

Another intriguing question: if we do get less immigration as a result of Brexit then we will need less housing so why the mania for new building just when the market may be on the point of turning down?

I think it's what you would call the housing supercycle. Secular stagnation here we come.

 

Reduced tax breaks on leverage. Rising mortgage rates. Tightening mortgage conditions. Increased house building. Falling foreign capital and personnel inflows.

Edited by Si1

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7 minutes ago, crouch said:

This is right. What amazes me is that it's always "we need to build more" and then houses will be cheaper. They won't. They'll be cheaper if IRs are at an anywhere reasonable level- which they haven't been for years. We do not have a housing shortage overall; there may be some shortage in some areas but I would think that many of these would be questionable.

Another intriguing question: if we do get less immigration as a result of Brexit then we will need less housing so why the mania for new building just when the market may be on the point of turning down?

Indeed, although I do agree with 'grab_some_popcorn' about the importance of the 1980s and 90s housing reforms, which turned homes into speculative investments and enabled the damage wrought by the debt bubble.   

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19 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

 

"In a second popular move, Mrs May will also announce in her speech that she is enforcing her long promised energy price cap"

She would, I've already capped mine until 2021.

As usual, those of us who look after ourselves, without relying on the state, get shafted :(.

Free-markets are the

Quote

only sustainable means of raising the living standards of everyone in a country

said Theresa May, last week. 

Edited by DrBuyToLeech

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1 hour ago, Philby1 said:

The big question is how will they make this building policy into another house price prop? 

They know what has to be done, up until now they have had no reason to act, but if something is not actioned pretty soon it will be to their downfall.......the state own lots of land all they have to do is build on it....providing homes to rent at a lower cost than to pay higher rents to land owners sitting on overpaid, overpriced, over inflated land ....the government wins the tenants win society wins.....money then can be used far more efficiently and wisely, it makes it more worthwhile to work to earn money to be used in better more productive ways....high rents is  poor use of earned  money......;)

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1 hour ago, DrBuyToLeech said:

Interest rates are a critical factor, lack of building is barely a factor at all.

As I understand it, house building tracks sales volume, basically.

That's an interesting point. If the Tory's are free market advocates, they should want to see house building track house prices (i.e. prices go up, building becomes more profitable, more houses built, supply increases, upward pressure on house price reduces, prices go down etc.)

 

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2 minutes ago, nayth said:

That's an interesting point. If the Tory's are free market advocates, they should want to see house building track house prices (i.e. prices go up, building becomes more profitable, more houses built, supply increases, upward pressure on house price reduces, prices go down etc.)

 

They aren't, this lot are into big government and meddling.

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