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Theresa May trapped: Can't do what she needs to do to get the youth on side, so fiddles around the edges.

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Theresa May's headline policies for the Tory Party conference are:

 

-give £10 billion away, to help youth with buying houses

-restart grants, and freeze/reduce payments for student loans

 

To me what she should have done is:

-reduce the supply of cheap money for housing, thus crashing house prices and making them more affordable for youth

-make going to university less relevant, get the number of Uni students down to 10%, replace a lot of the course's with cheap but high quality online courses

 

The reality is she can do neither of these things because the economy now see's both housing and education as important industries.

 

If she did start cutting back on these things, she would also be cutting deep into the GDP.

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One good idea would be to make the open university free, but make sure it has very high standards (about the same level as the good red brick Uni's).  Then no one could complain they were denied an education.

 

I guess the plates have to be kept spinning because no one wants to admit that well over half of those attending University from the early 90s onwards were totally wasting their time, their money, and the tax payers money.

Edited by reddog

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39 minutes ago, rollover said:

She is trapped since last snap election she lost.

Remember that this is the woman who complained that there was insufficient debate during the election campaign, while refusing to attend election debates....

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49 minutes ago, rollover said:

She is trapped since last snap election she lost.

And....caught out by a snap election....that she called...

Incompetence, incompetence, incompetence.

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1 hour ago, reddog said:

One good idea would be to make the open university free, but make sure it has very high standards (about the same level as the good red brick Uni's).  Then no one could complain they were denied an education.

I think OU is already higher standard than normal uni. Last time I looked the threshold for a 1st was a higher % too.

 

1 hour ago, reddog said:

I guess the plates have to be kept spinning because no one wants to admit that well over half of those attending University from the early 90s onwards were totally wasting their time, their money, and the tax payers money.

I dropped out of my degree and never got it. Was a stupid mistake to go in the first place in hindsight. I make £25 an hour in a job I now enjoy after years of experience, therefore very competent so less stressful. If I was young now I'd probably study nutrition with OU or similar and look to get into the alternate medicine industry, which has been and is steadily growing. I don't work in medicine at all but am getting into rife machines at the moment, which so far seem to work weirdly. Generally if the inventor, such as Tesla, was sh*t on by VIs, is one indicator of credibility to me.

According to someone who worked in the NHS 1980s to the 2000s, a lot of managers were brought in (under B-Liar) simply because they had a degree. No medical experience, experience of working in medicine or for the NHS and it just got worse and worse.

Edited by Arpeggio

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Of course she can't, she is facing a perfect storm, as well as all the other things younger voters tend to be anti-brexit. Labour have the luxury of being able to suggest things like SM and CU membership in response to the mess the government makes of the negotiations. Also being historically anti-EU Corbyn might even stand a chance of not alienating anti-EU Labour voters. 

 

Labour almost just have to sit back and let the Tories muck everything up.

 

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11 minutes ago, olde guto said:

Of course she can't, she is facing a perfect storm, as well as all the other things younger voters tend to be anti-brexit. Labour have the luxury of being able to suggest things like SM and CU membership in response to the mess the government makes of the negotiations. Also being historically anti-EU Corbyn might even stand a chance of not alienating anti-EU Labour voters. 

 

Labour almost just have to sit back and let the Tories muck everything up.

 

Yes, indeed.

One way or another Brexit is dead.

Either it will kill the host (patient zero, i.e. the Conservative Party) and Labour will overturn it eventually in line with supporters,; or it will be so completely fluffed up by the current Government that people will be begging for a second referendum and Exit from Brexit.

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2 hours ago, reddog said:

The reality is she can do neither of these things because the economy now see's both housing and education as important industries.

Politically, now is the best time for fixing the housing mess since 2008. 

Brexit will have economic fall out, even if it works out in the long-term. I don't think even Brexit supporters would deny that. It might even bring down the housing market all by itself.

In any case, Brexit will be blamed for every single economic ill, and the economy will probably falter anyway, so now is the time for taking unpopular steps to rebalance the economy in order to have some sort of decent chance at growth by the time of the next election. 

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3 hours ago, reddog said:

Theresa May's headline policies for the Tory Party conference are:

 

-give £10 billion away, to help youth with buying houses

-restart grants, and freeze/reduce payments for student loans

 

To me what she should have done is:

-reduce the supply of cheap money for housing, thus crashing house prices and making them more affordable for youth

-make going to university less relevant, get the number of Uni students down to 10%, replace a lot of the course's with cheap but high quality online courses

 

The reality is she can do neither of these things because the economy now see's both housing and education as important industries.

 

If she did start cutting back on these things, she would also be cutting deep into the GDP.

She is toast. She is almost as hated now as Cameron and Osborne were. And that is saying something.

Edited by GreenDevil

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3 minutes ago, DrBuyToLeech said:

In any case, Brexit will be blamed for every single economic ill, and the economy will probably falter anyway, so now is the time for taking unpopular steps to rebalance the economy in order to have some sort of decent chance at growth by the time of the next election. 

The problem for the Tories is that are also seen as responsible for Brexit, especially amongst the young. The Tories are screwed because they can't do what needs to be done to help the young without alienating their existing boomer base, and they are never going to sway enough young voters to be able to win without their old base on board. As others have noted on this thread (and elsewhere), the big, big ****-up that the Tories made was trying to (and succeeding at) propping up the housing market post GFC. I agree that this really could become an existential crisis for them.

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4 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

The problem for the Tories is that are also seen as responsible for Brexit, especially amongst the young. The Tories are screwed because they can't do what needs to be done to help the young without alienating their existing boomer base, and they are never going to sway enough young voters to be able to win without their old base on board. As others have noted on this thread (and elsewhere), the big, big ****-up that the Tories made was trying to (and succeeding at) propping up the housing market post GFC. I agree that this really could become an existential crisis for them.

That might be true, but it is true regardless. So they might as well have a go at fixing things now, in order to achieve some growth by the time of the next election. 

It might not work, but they've nothing to lose. 

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21 minutes ago, DrBuyToLeech said:

That might be true, but it is true regardless. So they might as well have a go at fixing things now, in order to achieve some growth by the time of the next election. 

It might not work, but they've nothing to lose. 

I agree in principal, but that would require a Tory party with the country's best interests at heart instead of their own, and a degree of foresight that is lacking in most politicians. I imagine that they will try to keep the plates spinning as long as possible before the market takes things out of their hands - at which point, they'll be blamed for that as well.

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A lot harder to sort out than the problems of the 1970s. Thatcher took on unions and unprofitable state run industries. Miners and the people who made the Morris Marina would lose their livelyhood and hate her forever but the middle/lower middle classes had enough incentives to keep her in power. 

The problem now is moving from an economy that is supported by layers of debt and government handouts, which is really all that replaced an industrial economy, effects more than just a working class industrial base who didn't vote tory anyway.    New labour made sure that whether it was tax credits, booming houseprices, or a post industrial city living off the expanded student population(Manchester comes to mind) that virtually everybody had skin in the game. 

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2 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

I agree in principal, but that would require a Tory party with the country's best interests at heart instead of their own, and a degree of foresight that is lacking in most politicians. I imagine that they will try to keep the plates spinning as long as possible before the market takes things out of their hands - at which point, they'll be blamed for that as well.

It's not obvious to me that the millionaire investment bankers and property developers in the Tory parliamentary party are even aware there's a problem to fix. There was nothing in Mrs May's opaque and superficial apologia for the free market to suggest the Tories have reflected in any way on the events and causes of the Great Financial Crash.

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They could do lots of things if they weren't wedded to neo liberalism

 

They could take the 12 billion a year foreign aid budget and undertake a huge social housing building program.

 

But they won't because they'd rather build nonexistent motorways in Uganda and be able to parade their conscience and virtue.

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9 minutes ago, winkie said:

Good on TM if she ups the amount having to earn before paying back student tax/debt from £21,000 pa to £25,000 pa....:)

Yeah but even then they only save £30 a month, does she really think that is going to swing the young voters.

Meanwhile the loan is increasing at £200 a month. A ftb mortgage with htb is probably over a grand for a shoe box.

Pissing in the wind

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13 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

They could do lots of things if they weren't wedded to neo liberalism

They could take the 12 billion a year foreign aid budget and undertake a huge social housing building program.

But they won't because they'd rather build nonexistent motorways in Uganda and be able to parade their conscience and virtue.

The foreign aid program is used to buy influence and access, post Brexit that will be needed more than ever.

They could build all the houses they want but its not going to sway the view of those who have given up on the Tories in time for the next election.  In fact is more likely to lose then votes in that timeframe, with all the planning rows and NIMBYism than goes with any major build programme.    

 

 

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3 minutes ago, frederico said:

Yeah but even then they only save £30 a month, does she really think that is going to swing the young voters.

Meanwhile the loan is increasing at £200 a month. A ftb mortgage with htb is probably over a grand for a shoe box.

Pissing in the wind

Most stupid useless degrees or the many hundreds that drop out and never take the test because they should never have gone to uni in the first place will never pay it back anyway.....their income might not ever reach the trigger to pay anything....gig, zero hours, low pay, part-time.....sign of the times am afraid.......why should someone pay for something that gives them no lifetime benefits only a lifelong liability of debt service.;)

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2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The foreign aid program is used to buy influence and access, post Brexit that will be needed more than ever.

They could build all the houses they want but its not going to sway the view of those who have given up on the Tories in time for the next election.  In fact is more likely to lose then votes in that timeframe, with all the planning rows and NIMBYism than goes with any major build programme.    

 

 

That's the theory but there's no evidence to support it.

 

America spends next to nothing as a percentage of GDP but has huge influence.

 

France spends half what the UK does. Are they any less influential for it?

 

China gives next to nothing in aid. They build infrastructure in return for exclusive access to natural resources. That's the only sensible foreign assistance: quid pro quo.

 

Four years until the next election, I think a lot of people would be swayed by a million new houses.

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2 minutes ago, winkie said:

Most stupid useless degrees or the many hundreds that drop out and never take the test because they should never have gone to uni in the first place will never pay it back anyway.....their income might not ever reach the trigger to pay anything....gig, zero hours, low pay, part-time.....sign of the times am afraid.......why should someone pay for something that gives them no lifetime benefits only a lifelong liability of debt service.;)

a slave in debt not in chains :ph34r:

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TM and the "Werther's Original" Party are toast for the next election.  I am very surprised that BJ wants to take one "for the team".  Clearly they need a fall person for the next election, and with TM's lipstick all over Brexit, increasing IR's and the next looming recession, I can see the 1922 lot giving her sufficient rope, and letting her lead into the next election.  It all depends on how the Labour government does in the next innings, TM is Nightwatch man  material  - you don't want BJ leading a Banzi charge.

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43 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

That's the theory but there's no evidence to support it. - there is no evidence as the evidence has not been collated, because if it was that spending would then not count as foreign aid.  Anyway post Brexit would not be a good time to test your theory

America spends next to nothing as a percentage of GDP but has huge influence. Still the words largest donor, and they have other ways of exerting their influence.

 

France spends half what the UK does. Are they any less influential for it?  Well they are far less influential than the UK, not even featuring on lists of the worlds top soft power countries, so probably. 

 

China gives next to nothing in aid. They build infrastructure in return for exclusive access to natural resources. That's the only sensible foreign assistance: quid pro quo. I hope you don't think we should be like China. 

Four years until the next election, I think a lot of people would be swayed by a million new houses. TheTories say they will have built 1m by 2020 does this million not count.

 

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  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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