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Nationwide Sep 17 - data out Fri morning


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1 hour ago, GreenDevil said:

 

Actual figures.

2% annual.

East anglia HPI still running at 5-10%.

Even people moving out of London with 10% less than last year are still going to be paying sill money outside of London.

 

The rest of the UK needs a 70% collapse in London just to bring sanity to the local markets.

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Even people moving out of London with 10% less than last year are still going to be paying sill money outside of London.

 

The rest of the UK needs a 70% collapse in London just to bring sanity to the local markets.

Yep +4.1% Qon Q for the East Midlands, that's crazy. Not seen anything like that since 2002.Can't say it's happening here 130 miles from London so I assume the South of the region is taking a hit as refugees from London gain pace.

Edited by crashmonitor
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The Narionwide Chief Economist says that a modest rise in bank rate should only have a modest impact because...

“...the MPC is unlikely to reverse the other measures it put in place last year to support credit availability in the wider economy (such as the additional purchases of government and corporate bonds, which have helped to keep longer term borrowing costs low)'

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I did some playing with historic nationwide data for different regions and did not note a significant ripple in the 2008 crash - everywhere caught the cold at practically the same time.

Maybe it is different this time given that the market really has been stimulated by the London exodus. Not sure how long it will take to play out though.

Part of me is thinking that it could be precipitated extremely quickly; who in their right mind would stretch to the limits to buy a pokey flat/terrace that is falling in value (even 0.6% YoY still means 3 grand a year on a 500,000 purchase). No sales mean no funds to relocate...

Edited by btd1981
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1 hour ago, crashmonitor said:

Yep +4.1% Qon Q for the East Midlands, that's crazy. Not seen anything like that since 2002.Can't say it's happening here 130 miles from London so I assume the South of the region is taking a hit as refugees from London gain pace.

Actually it's +5.1, but it's an annual rise not a quarterly rise. They compare quarters with the corresponding quarter last year.

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54 minutes ago, Broken biscuit said:

Actually it's +5.1, but it's an annual rise not a quarterly rise. They compare quarters with the corresponding quarter last year.

Thanks BB I mistook the year to june as a quarterly stat ( second column) as lower down a similar table uses that column for quarterly data.

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2 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Yep +4.1% Qon Q for the East Midlands, that's crazy. Not seen anything like that since 2002.Can't say it's happening here 130 miles from London so I assume the South of the region is taking a hit as refugees from London gain pace.

Surely what will happen as the priced out London refugees buy the stock up north and push up the prices, the London bubble deflates even more and prices fall further, this will cause a ripple effect up north, so the London refugees find themselves with an ever depreciating asset as it hits the outside regions, some would say that they are just running ahead of the tsunami only to be hit and dragged back out to sea again..

Edited by JustAnotherProle
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I can see that in areas I've been following such as Leighton Buzzard in Bedfordshire that the London diaspora is slowing there now.

Few rental properties used to come on the market which are family homes owned by BTL'ers so I didn't think that BTL was the main problem there causing prices to rise (as opposed to Milton Keynes)

A year ago I couldn't even get to view a property for sale that was anywhere near to the Leighton Buzzard Railway station. It would go "under offer" within days - week and this would translate through as a sale in LR. Other properties in less desirable areas would eventually sell for higher and higher prices. 

(LB was not the same as my property search in Milton Keynes, where only a proportion of properties that went Under Offer would ever appear in LR and many of them were BTL or BOMAD)

Things have changed in Leighton Buzzard over this summer. The properties which would sell straight away before now take longer. They sit for weeks now and do eventually go Under Offer but I don't know at what price and if the sale does go through in the end.

I'm getting unsold properties being offered to rent now (set up a search). I'm seeing houses being reduced in price and still sitting unsold.

It may be that property prices hit the level that even the London diaspora couldn't afford them and people have had to move further away or something else is happening. 

There will be a limit on the feasibility of buying in the Midlands and travelling to London to work and only so many jobs in the Midlands available to support people moving there,

 

Edited by Flopsy
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3 hours ago, Loving The Crash said:

Lovely to see London turning red on their map :)

The brick has hit the pond - now we'll get the ripples...

...and that's what's coming LOL

I suspect a 70% collapse in the currency is more likely than a similar sized collapse in asset prices.

 

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22 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

I suspect a 70% collapse in the currency is more likely than a similar sized collapse in asset prices.

 

A 70% collapse in the currency wouldn't fix the house price to wage imbalance as both are priced in sterling.

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Laughing my head off at the suggestion this has anything to do with a flow of people from London (that's what the media is suggesting of course - think like them if you want to but...)

This is to do with lending risk and the banks feeling their lending is riskier in London due to size of loans and frothy prices... 

The banks will be targeting the lower priced regions for that reason (e.g. E Midlands). 

Mortgage lending drives prices. Wake up people! 

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3 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Surprised no-one posted this from yesterday. Inside, the editorial (wonder who wrote that?) said falling house prices were bad news - a result of confidence loss following Brexit.

London_Evening_Standard_30_9_2017_400.jp

 

 

It's an odd headline for a London newspaper now that the majority of Londoners are renters. I guess Osborne drank a bit too much HPI koolaid.

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3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

It's an odd headline for a London newspaper now that the majority of Londoners are renters. I guess Osborne drank a bit too much HPI koolaid.

The editorial also noted that a return to double digit % growth in house prices each year was undesirable. Bit late to decide that one George!

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3 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Laughing my head off at the suggestion this has anything to do with a flow of people from London (that's what the media is suggesting of course - think like them if you want to but...)

This is to do with lending risk and the banks feeling their lending is riskier in London due to size of loans and frothy prices... 

The banks will be targeting the lower priced regions for that reason (e.g. E Midlands). 

Mortgage lending drives prices. Wake up people! 

.....so the effect of the cause.....;)

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3 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Laughing my head off at the suggestion this has anything to do with a flow of people from London (that's what the media is suggesting of course - think like them if you want to but...)

This is to do with lending risk and the banks feeling their lending is riskier in London due to size of loans and frothy prices... 

The banks will be targeting the lower priced regions for that reason (e.g. E Midlands). 

Mortgage lending drives prices. Wake up people! 

Sorry dude

Maybe on your patch but here in Norfolk its not locals at all.

I am a top x% earner in an area north of Norwich where the average salary is 20k and 30% of people do not have a further education, poverty is a problem.  You either get out or you get a council house and hit the tax credit jackpot or your stuffed in regard to housing.

Lets take the postcode of near my work NR12

274 properties for sale 

186 over 10 x the local average salary

126 over 300k 15x the local salary

49 over 500k 25x the local salary

and quite a few lot more than that.

I my search for a nice family home I need 375 > 450k and thats not in the best spots

There are only a few jobs over 30k and those are chefs and hotel managers etc please have a look if you can.  Even if you commute to Norwich you will find expensive homes there and maybe a few good jobs in the hospital and most likely consider living the other side of the city in NR2 or NR4.

the best example I can think of is Beech Road Wroxham which is millionaires row up until recently in the boom it had an average selling price of 1.3 million and was the most expensive road in the county.

The last house to sell over a million £ there was.....2014

i wonder what happened in 2014 because there have been at least 2 houses for sale over 1 million or near as dammit all the time since then.

most of the agents have told me home counties and Londoners come into buy and at the moment there are less of them and they also cannot sell there and have enough left in the kitty to make it logical here.

A classic case of ripple out.

Southern Norwich also except that is also from Cambridge commuters.

Its definitely slowed around here loads of crap for sale and loads of great houses for sale over 600k the middle is where the action is and they sell for 350 compared to 2016s 300/325 but they ask for 425/450 so thats slow out of greed and some idiots buying a those levels.

 

 

Edited by Fromage Frais
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1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

The editorial also noted that a return to double digit % growth in house prices each year was undesirable.

That's always the concession HPI-ists are willing to make. 'We begrudgingly concede that double digit inflation in an essential good may be undesirable. However, normal house price growth of 5-8% is fully sustainable and good for the economy as the wealth effect boosts consumer confidence. Everybody would lose if house prices were to fall.'

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21 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

Sorry dude

Maybe on your patch but here in Norfolk its not locals at all.

I am a top x% earner in an area north of Norwich where the average salary is 20k and 30% of people do not have a further education, poverty is a problem.  You either get out or you get a council house and hit the tax credit jackpot or your stuffed in regard to housing.

Lets take the postcode of near my work NR12

274 properties for sale 

186 over 10 x the local average salary

126 over 300k 15x the local salary

49 over 500k 25x the local salary

and quite a few lot more than that.

I my search for a nice family home I need 375 > 450k and thats not in the best spots

There are only a few jobs over 30k and those are chefs and hotel managers etc please have a look if you can.  Even if you commute to Norwich you will find expensive homes there and maybe a few good jobs in the hospital and most likely consider living the other side of the city in NR2 or NR4.

the best example I can think of is Beech Road Wroxham which is millionaires row up until recently in the boom it had an average selling price of 1.3 million and was the most expensive road in the county.

The last house to sell over a million £ there was.....2014

i wonder what happened in 2014 because there have been at least 2 houses for sale over 1 million or near as dammit all the time since then.

most of the agents have told me home counties and Londoners come into buy and at the moment there are less of them and they also cannot sell there and have enough left in the kitty to make it logical here.

A classic case of ripple out.

Southern Norwich also except that is also from Cambridge commuters.

Its definitely slowed around here loads of crap for sale and loads of great houses for sale over 600k the middle is where the action is and they sell for 350 compared to 2016s 300/325 but they ask for 425/450 so thats slow out of greed and some idiots buying a those levels.

 

 

I am sure there is an element of ripple out - I think in my now trendy part of W Wales most people there are now from London / Birmingham / M4 - they come in and push the prices up. Yet on the whole this isn't the case - the E Midlands? An exodus to Derby? I don't think so - nor is there enough of an exodus to places like the W Midlands to make much difference. 

I am pretty sure banks even stated they were reducing lending to properties over 500k, which knocks out much of London... beyond that, there is a slowing as you state (if London slows then there isn't a ripple out because selling and relocation stall). 

There's been heavy relocation from London going on for many years - that's another aspect. 

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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