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Mapatasy

Capitalism is the best system, but it has been undermined by Quantitative Easing

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19 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Who'd a thought it.

Money printing making money worthless.

It could be that HPI doesn't exist, just that the static asset is the only thing that has stayed at the same value but the currency buying it has been devalued. :rolleyes:

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7 minutes ago, Option5 said:

It could be that HPI doesn't exist, just that the static asset is the only thing that has stayed at the same value but the currency buying it has been devalued. :rolleyes:

I have thought about that...but how do you explain...

 

1) rent rising in line with wages

2) pretty much all necessities rising in line with inflation

3) everywhere bar the SE, even with Mad HPI hasn't kept up with inflation since 2007.

4) mortgage rates had to be forced down and chains propped up from the bottom to get house prices up.

 

The fact that wages haven't risen means we're in for one massive collapse.

 

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19 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I have thought about that...but how do you explain...

 

1) rent rising in line with wages

2) pretty much all necessities rising in line with inflation

3) everywhere bar the SE, even with Mad HPI hasn't kept up with inflation since 2007.

4) mortgage rates had to be forced down and chains propped up from the bottom to get house prices up.

 

The fact that wages haven't risen means we're in for one massive collapse.

 

 Or wages take off?

Or a combination of the two

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50 minutes ago, adarmo said:

 Or wages take off?

Or a combination of the two

Sorry but Wages Take Off? How would that begin?

I don't hear that anywhere. I just hear about lack of investment, doubts about the future and people getting their hours cut.

I don't expect Wages to Take Off. I expect more of the opposite and a sense of doubt everywhere. 

(Except for accidentally hearing Chris Evans on Radio 2 whose Morning Show rolls out some smug child to tell you how he's just been up in his Daddy's balloon or something. Oh how exciting and what a wonderful country).

(For him).

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Yes

1 hour ago, Option5 said:

It could be that HPI doesn't exist, just that the static asset is the only thing that has stayed at the same value but the currency buying it has been devalued. :rolleyes:

yes maybe if you separate assets from day to day goods you could argue that in the assets sector (whether houses or collectors cars etc) the assets haven't increased in value at all but rather purchasing power of money has collapsed.

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40 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Sorry but Wages Take Off? How would that begin?

I don't hear that anywhere. I just hear about lack of investment, doubts about the future and people getting their hours cut.

I don't expect Wages to Take Off. I expect more of the opposite and a sense of doubt everywhere. 

(Except for accidentally hearing Chris Evans on Radio 2 whose Morning Show rolls out some smug child to tell you how he's just been up in his Daddy's balloon or something. Oh how exciting and what a wonderful country).

(For him).

It could begin with full employment and bargaining pressures. I'm seeing it in my company and in my industry. 

Realistically it's politically more palatable too. Houses become more affordable in real terms without the banks going to the wall (or needing bailing out again) and existing homeowners don't feel like they've lost out, in fact they probably feel better if they're getting pay rises. 

Balanced with this would be rising interest rates.

You expect wages to fall?

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1 hour ago, Wayward said:

Yes

yes maybe if you separate assets from day to day goods you could argue that in the assets sector (whether houses or collectors cars etc) the assets haven't increased in value at all but rather purchasing power of money has collapsed.

Spot on.

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9 hours ago, adarmo said:

It could begin with full employment and bargaining pressures. I'm seeing it in my company and in my industry. 

Realistically it's politically more palatable too. Houses become more affordable in real terms without the banks going to the wall (or needing bailing out again) and existing homeowners don't feel like they've lost out, in fact they probably feel better if they're getting pay rises. 

Balanced with this would be rising interest rates.

You expect wages to fall?

UK PLC doesn't exist in a bubble, other than a housing one.

Wages cannot rise here if they aren't rising elsewhere or we will lose the small semblance of economic competitiveness we have left.

Housing cost drives wage demands. Ironically, the banks themselves started to squeal on this years ago and move jobs out of London.

The way to make Brexit successful in the long run is to keep tightening down the lending criteria to prevent a bounce back & allow the HPC to happen so that we can flatten wage demand. 

Hopefully somebody will also have the sense to introduce a fairly punitive foreign buyer tax to prevent housing being treated as offshore accounts in future.

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Capitalism is a very productive system...problem is the fruit of that production is handed over by the producers to the possessing classes as rent...

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46 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Capitalism is a very productive system...problem is the fruit of that production is handed over by the producers to the possessing classes as rent...

Very true....it fails when it is more productive for employers and the rent collectors and not for the ones that work to produce the most productivity for others....;)

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I think Capitalism is Win-Lose. If you are comfortable with that then it must be a fine system.

Capitalism plus QE seems like the winners are just making sure they always win.

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14 hours ago, adarmo said:

 

You expect wages to fall?

I think the West vs "Developing Countries" have seen lots of changes with globalization, and so I can't see wages going up much here because it's hard to maintain leverage if cheaper alternative workers are available. 

Also "Wages" are one thing. "Steady employment and confidence about your income" are another.

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5 hours ago, disenfranchised said:

UK PLC doesn't exist in a bubble, other than a housing one.

Wages cannot rise here if they aren't rising elsewhere or we will lose the small semblance of economic competitiveness we have left.

Housing cost drives wage demands. Ironically, the banks themselves started to squeal on this years ago and move jobs out of London.

The way to make Brexit successful in the long run is to keep tightening down the lending criteria to prevent a bounce back & allow the HPC to happen so that we can flatten wage demand. 

Hopefully somebody will also have the sense to introduce a fairly punitive foreign buyer tax to prevent housing being treated as offshore accounts in future.

Agreed with most of what you say. On Jun 23rd 2016 everyone in the UK took a 20% pay cut relative to a basket of other currencies. Either we were overpaid before, or wages need to increase to get us back to where we were. the funny thing is since that happened I've noticed a few of my friends leaving (anecdotal of course) to become expats. Shortages in the UK of certain key skills will increase wages there. 

Wages can rise here for a number of reasons, inflationary pressures, legislative pressure (minimum and living wages) and increases in productivity although UK is lagging in the latter. 

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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