Don't FEAR the rate rise

[TheCountOfNowhere]

5 minutes ago, sPinwheel said:

Still there's more likely to be spiders under my bed than crazy bastards.

I always look in the back of the car before I get in...just in case

[adarmo]

7 minutes ago, spyguy said:

No.

They spent like crazy.

And could no longer devalue.

Would the Greece crisis been even worse if they were still using the Drachma? Its possible that Greece would have have had to cut even more and borrow even more than as a member of the EU.

Being able able to evalue your currency is not longer the magic fix it once was. Not sure what the numbers are but most countries import a lot more than they ever.

You only to look a tthe UK to see that the fall in £ hardly bailed us out - just made prices rise. In the UK case, so much of the economy is tied up in the public sector, or benefits that all the fall in the piund meant to ~60% of the population was more expensive holidays. 

The few - and I mean few- people working itnhe private sector on exports never responded - their imports wnt up and most had longish contracts.

 

No

They can no longer mint to buy their debt. Britain can. America can. Japan can. Greece cannot, it requires permission from Germany to have its debt bought by the ECB.

[adarmo]

23 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Who'd a thought it...US raise rates everyone follows.

 

We don't fear a rate rise...we demand one !!!!

 

 A BIG one.

 

The bubble is toast. They all know what's coming.

 

If you buy a house now you are mad.

 

We're thinking of delaying our purchase in France for 6 months now....

 How many times have you written that since joining this site?

[houseface2000]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If the lying bankers ate to be believed...those days are over. We'll know in the next 6 months where we stand.

 

Started a thread last week on Jonathan Davis who most on here should know. He was uber bearish on IR rises. 

 

He's turn 180 degrees recently and sees them going to 5-10 % in the next 5-10 years.

 

You might not want to listen to me but you'd be daft not to listen to him.

 

On top of the that you've got a proper labour government to look forward to.

The bankers will be milking you for another decade at which point 2007 will pretty much be cleared and asset prices about as low as they could be.

 

Wouldn't worry about buying a house...its dead money

Interesting. So what does he see as the trigger to much much higher inflation to cause the rate rises to 10%?  Wage growth though a new labour government? Loss of confidence in our currency? 

 

[locky82]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41439349

 

 

[crouch]

29 minutes ago, locky82 said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41439349

 

 

This means we are much nearer a cut from 0.25% to 0.10%.

[zugzwang]

24 minutes ago, crouch said:

This means we are much nearer a cut from 0.25% to 0.10%.

Closer in truth than talk of 5-10%! Didn't the IEA berk Andrew Lilico forecast the same thing in 2010?

In reality, the UK is caught in a stagflationary slump and the BoE is effectively sidelined. There's too much imported inflation to support a rate cut and too little domestic growth to justify a rate rise.

 

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

This means we are much nearer a cut from 0.25% to 0.10%.

That wouldnt involve the US not really being in charge.

 

Good luck with that  

[crouch]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That wouldnt involve the US not really being in charge.

 

Good luck with that  

The US has been increasing rates for a year now. Why haven't the ECB, the BOE and BOJ not increased their rates if the US was in charge?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

22 minutes ago, crouch said:

The US has been increasing rates for a year now. Why haven't the ECB, the BOE and BOJ not increased their rates if the US was in charge?

Hardly.

Rate is between 1 and 1.25%

couple of weeks ago it was 0.75 to 1.

Not much in it between 0.25% and 0.75%

1.25 to 1.5%, suddenly the gap is huge.

The big factor is the QT

mortgage/savings rates were 4%+ with IRs at 0.5%, it was the magic FLS/Term funding that's pushed rates down.

 

Edited September 29, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Bruce Banner]

5% MLR, or whatever they call it these days, would be a good start .

The noddy at the BBC is suggesting it may be a 0.25% rise . 

It will probably remain as it is if Carney plays it true to form .

[crouch]

21 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Hardly.

Rate is between 1 and 1.25%

couple of weeks ago it was 0.75 to 1.

Not much in it between 0.25% and 0.75%

1.25 to 1.5%, suddenly the gap is huge.

The big factor is the QT

mortgage/savings rates were 4%+ with IRs at 0.5%, it was the magic FLS/Term funding that's pushed rates down.

 

How does this relate to your point that, as the US is increasing rates. we will have to do so as well? Either others follow the US rates or they don't and, to date, they haven't.

What is QT?

[frederico]

Certainly seems to be something afoot, Carney on r4 saying 'gap between rich and poor, housing crisis not my job mate, bank stability now that's me innit'

Of course the banks aren't stable and with out a massive reset they won't be, he keeps giving them cheap money to create ever more bad loans.

What does a man like him do when he begins to think he's got it wrong?

The ships stable sir just lying on the bottom of the ocean. I've done my job.

[thewig]

19 hours ago, adarmo said:

 How many times have you written that since joining this site?

28,362 

[adarmo]

4 hours ago, thewig said:

28,362 

         

[Blod]

On 29/09/2017 at 2:09 PM, frederico said:

Certainly seems to be something afoot, Carney on r4 saying 'gap between rich and poor, housing crisis not my job mate, bank stability now that's me innit'

Of course the banks aren't stable and with out a massive reset they won't be, he keeps giving them cheap money to create ever more bad loans.

What does a man like him do when he begins to think he's got it wrong?

The ships stable sir just lying on the bottom of the ocean. I've done my job.

If he raises it at all it’ll be so that he can then drop it a few months later claiming that they’ve tried by the economy needs ‘emergency’ low rates still.

[crashmonitor]

On ‎28‎/‎09‎/‎2017 at 6:29 PM, winkie said:

 

And I thought this one was the obvious choice

 

Don't Fear the Reaper

Don't Fear the Reaper

We could be like they are

In a Mortgage for Eternity

Edited October 2, 2017 by crashmonitor

[TheCountOfNowhere]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/ten-mortgage-lenders-raise-rates-within-one-week/

 

Ten mortgage lenders raise rates within one week

 

Fear the rate rise.

[rantnrave]

Highest rates going up on instant access savings accounts too (still not offering half the rate of inflation though!)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

25 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Highest rates going up on instant access savings accounts too (still not offering half the rate of inflation though!)

I have some money sat in an account earning 0%, it's rising relative to London house prices ;-)

Sounds like Term Funding and FLS are going !!!

2018 will see some heft falls now.