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TheCountOfNowhere

Don't FEAR the rate rise

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Who'd a thought it...US raise rates everyone follows.

 

We don't fear a rate rise...we demand one !!!!

 

 A BIG one.

 

The bubble is toast. They all know what's coming.

 

If you buy a house now you are mad.

 

We're thinking of delaying our purchase in France for 6 months now....

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Just now, sPinwheel said:

Like what, +0.10%? Or maybe stretch to +0.15%?

Come on now be sensible, when I said YuuUuUUuUUUGE I obviously didnt mean as much as a whole tenth of a percent

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Haha, what like a a four percent increase every six months. Imagine in two years we could be looking at rates approaching a third of one percent. Roll on Jeremy Corbyn.

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US 10Y treasuies are yielding ~2.3%

UK 10Y are 1.3%

US offers higher growthm lower inflation and no Corbyn.

UK Gilts are grossly mispriced - way too low for the UK risk.

Mortgage rates, which is what this site is all about, spreads depend on UK gilts.

Looks like weve wasted that quiet 10 years where we should have been cranking down debt, trying to run a small surplus and reforming pubic sector spend toalign it to wahts needed rather than operating a morons-employment scheme.

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The new normal is not the same as the old normal....well how do you know it's the new normal until it becomes normal then?...unless you are fixing the markets!...so much May`s forthcoming `free markets` speech today...the free market that offers banks my/our money at below market rates!...do these people actually believe what they are saying, or expect us to?!

  

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Many thousands must have repaid their mortgages in full over the last 10 years....maybe they can now sit back and relax......build it up, draw it down,die.;)

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2 hours ago, spyguy said:

US 10Y treasuies are yielding ~2.3%

UK 10Y are 1.3%

US offers higher growthm lower inflation and no Corbyn.

UK Gilts are grossly mispriced - way too low for the UK risk.

Mortgage rates, which is what this site is all about, spreads depend on UK gilts.

Looks like weve wasted that quiet 10 years where we should have been cranking down debt, trying to run a small surplus and reforming pubic sector spend toalign it to wahts needed rather than operating a morons-employment scheme.

Treasuries are a good buy right now for me.Sterling might hit $1.40 yet,but i can see 90c before this thing plays out.I ignore all the press and the interest rates are going up narrative everyone thinks is gospel now.Im only interested in long rates,and they are going down,not up.I think the 10 year will yield 0.5% before this thing plays out.

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5 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Treasuries are a good buy right now for me.Sterling might hit $1.40 yet,but i can see 90c before this thing plays out.I ignore all the press and the interest rates are going up narrative everyone thinks is gospel now.Im only interested in long rates,and they are going down,not up.I think the 10 year will yield 0.5% before this thing plays out.

How do you buy them ?

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12 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Treasuries are a good buy right now for me.Sterling might hit $1.40 yet,but i can see 90c before this thing plays out.I ignore all the press and the interest rates are going up narrative everyone thinks is gospel now.Im only interested in long rates,and they are going down,not up.I think the 10 year will yield 0.5% before this thing plays out.

I disagree.

Im not saying Gilts will shoot up to 10%+.

I reckon they are on their way to 4%-5% in a a few years.

UK has too many risks that are nt priced in

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Just now, spyguy said:

I disagree.

Im not saying Gilts will shoot up to 10%+.

I reckon they are on their way to 4%-5% in a a few years.

UK has too many risks that are nt priced in

I agree on gilts in a few years (maybe 2021)  i think your right they will be 4/5%,but in the shorter term in the US i think long rates are going down.I think whats clear after that though is the long disinflation in rates that started in 82 is likely to reverse,perhaps even all the way back.

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52 minutes ago, winkie said:

Many thousands must have repaid their mortgages in full over the last 10 years....maybe they can now sit back and relax......build it up, draw it down,die.;)

Sort of where I will be in 3 years and after working for 40 years has a calmness about it - in fact in reality isn't that thd circle of life ?

13 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

How do you buy them ?

+1 yep how do you buy treasuries (gilts and bonds I guess)

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9 minutes ago, spyguy said:

I disagree.

Im not saying Gilts will shoot up to 10%+.

I reckon they are on their way to 4%-5% in a a few years.

UK has too many risks that are nt priced in

Don't want to sound argumentative but people have been saying that about the Land of the Rising sun for 20 years.

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2 hours ago, spyguy said:

US 10Y treasuies are yielding ~2.3%

UK 10Y are 1.3%

US offers higher growthm lower inflation and no Corbyn.

UK Gilts are grossly mispriced compared to USA- way too low for the UK risk.

Mortgage rates, which is what this site is all about, spreads depend on UK gilts.

Looks like weve wasted that quiet 10 years where we should have been cranking down debt, trying to run a small surplus and reforming pubic sector spend toalign it to wahts needed rather than operating a morons-employment scheme.

Boom.............

Great last sentence in bold.Too true

 

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2 minutes ago, Greg Bowman said:

Sort of where I will be in 3 years and after working for 40 years has a calmness about it - in fact in reality isn't that thd circle of life ?

+1 yep how do you buy treasuries (gilts and bonds I guess)

The funds TLT if you arent in an ISA ,if you are IBTL .Those are long term treasury funds and none hedged (for me if im buying treasuries im buying a deflation and/or a sterling hedge so dont want a hedged fund).

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Many thousands must have repaid their mortgages in full over the last 10 years....maybe they can now sit back and relax......build it up, draw it down,die.;)

Yep which is why the risk has moved from the private sector debt to the Treasury. Indeed it's no longer the banks that underwrite new risky mortgages it's the Treasury on HTB. 

I agree with earlier comments that flat yields at 1.3% are risky with Corbyn in tne wings. Savings are to steal via inflation for social justice, so long as he and his mates million pound housing equity is propped up in Islington. And per a reply on another thread the Tories are also pro housing wealth, savings destruction.

At the very least insure the money with index linked gilts.

Edited by crashmonitor

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11 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

Don't want to sound argumentative but people have been saying that about the Land of the Rising sun for 20 years.

Japan flips all its debt to its nationals.

UK has been dumping its debt on the BoE for the last ~ 8 years.

Japan will have a big bang and reset. But it its got a formidable exporting machines, capable of converting Japanese labour + capital into foreign currency.

UK? Want t buy a tiny flat in some god awful ar5e end of London?

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  • 298 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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