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UK consumer confidence shaken as epic housing price boom comes off the rails

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Good news when Financial Advisers are advising, in the MSM, of an impending housing recession, bursting bubble etc... not a particularly informative article but 'the HPC fire' is certainly spreading nicely! ;)

https://www.ftadviser.com/opinion/2017/09/27/advice-found-wanting/

"UK consumers are about to have their confidence shaken as the epic housing price boom we have seen over the past decade comes off the rails. The housing market is close to recession, if it is not already in recession"

"both the Halifax and Nationwide house price indexes show annual house price inflation barely keeping up with inflation, with the Nationwide index showing a recent month-on-month fall. I expect both these indexes to start pointing downwards sharply over the next 12 months"

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10 minutes ago, adarmo said:

I wonder if they'll lower interest rates

Don't be stupid, why would they do that?  Or thinking about it, yes they just might until the £ tanks further.

Edited by dougless

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On 27/09/2017 at 17:08, adarmo said:

I wonder if they'll lower interest rates

I'm so glad they're so vigilant

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49 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

This was from eighteen odd months ago...! listening to headlines like this cost me thousands.

 

Indeed - taking the average UK house price, it would have been very difficult to lose money on buying a house in the at pretty much any time over the last two decades.  You would have had to buy around the peak in 2007 and then (forced to) sell at the nadir of the mini-HPC , at the start of 2009.  After that, prices bounced back to roughly late 2006 level, stayed there for a couple of years and then started to rise strongly again.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/housing-index

If you did buy at or near the absolute peak (meaning from about mid 2006 until late 2007) then you had to wait until about 2016 to see the house worth more than you paid for it in nominal terms.  Yes, there's inflation to take into account but interest rates were also incredibly low making it easy to service the debt while you were.

It's no surprise that people view bricks and mortar as a sure thing financially.

 

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On 27/09/2017 at 17:08, adarmo said:

I wonder if they'll lower interest rates

Carney will, he wants it in the 0.25-0.5 range. The .25 raise was because he kept bluffing himself into a corner about fiscal tightening! The BoE is filled with doves and Brexit is a convinient excuse to decrease it by .25 points.

BoE will not allow house prices to fall, banks are way too exposed to inflated house prices. The credit bubble cannot pop.

People will struggle due to a falling pound and increasing inflation, but the banks will be held steady come what may.

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10 minutes ago, shortbread said:

 

People will struggle due to a falling pound and increasing inflation, but the banks will be held steady come what may.

 

this is where things get tricky as the proles object thru the ballot box

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23 minutes ago, Si1 said:

this is where things get tricky as the proles object thru the ballot box

Vote for whom exactly, everyone knows no party in the UK will get a majority now?

As long as Tories have a say in the matter, they will support any move that props up asset prices. If a Labour government comes into power then the BoE doves & the banking establishment will simply ignore them.

The public has no voice in the fiscal policy, what part of UK politics in the last decade ever gave a feeling that the people's interest were put first?

BoE is digging itself into a bigger hole everyday, well the country is. It's simply a debt time-bomb that governments agree to being pushed further along so that it doesn't go boom during their time in power.

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2 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

Indeed - taking the average UK house price, it would have been very difficult to lose money on buying a house in the at pretty much any time over the last two decades. 

Depends on the costs. For cheap properties, mortgage fees, surveys and conveyancing are a significant percentage of the purchase price. For expensive properties stamp duty is a big factor. It's a bit difficult to say whether someone has lost money without knowing what they are going to do in the future though.

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3 hours ago, shortbread said:

Carney will, he wants it in the 0.25-0.5 range. The .25 raise was because he kept bluffing himself into a corner about fiscal tightening! The BoE is filled with doves and Brexit is a convinient excuse to decrease it by .25 points.

BoE will not allow house prices to fall, banks are way too exposed to inflated house prices. The credit bubble cannot pop.

People will struggle due to a falling pound and increasing inflation, but the banks will be held steady come what may.

dropping it 0.25 is going to make feck all difference.  direct input like HTB is the fuel they like to use.  or negative rates. 

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House prices will become the least of a concern once real inflation of everything required to live apart from house prices kicks into play...everything is cyclical......those that own a house will be those that feel the pain the most.....no job, no pay rise.;)

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8 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

 

Yeah right! As if any figures from the European Commission are credible, especially at the moment as they try anything to stop our brexit, or to trap us in forever under a new EU treaty that they drew up for May... ie her 'deal'

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On 28/03/2019 at 12:44, btd1981 said:

This was from eighteen odd months ago...! listening to headlines like this cost me thousands.

Lol try hundreds of thousands. The last few years has decimated me personally.

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Presumably not buy a house in a certain area when they were merely fkn expensive, instead of ludicrously, insanely fkn expensive as they are now. 

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31 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

Presumably not buy a house in a certain area when they were merely fkn expensive, instead of ludicrously, insanely fkn expensive as they are now. 

pretty much 

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Although consumers have much to lose if the housing market crashes, the banks are more exposed than anyone...

I highly doubt they will allow the market to crash.

London isnt crashing, London is cooling from its peak. London, being an a major international city, leaving the EU will loose its power. So I can imagine buying pressure has fallen.

Birmingham, Manchester and anywhere with decent infrastructure and jobs are seeing steady growth. 

In Birmingham, where value can be had, buying pressure is unreal. First time buyers are snapping up 130k-170k houses, some with up to 40 viewings. There literally on the market for 3-5 days and sold.

What's going to cause a crash? I cant see anything immediate, people are still buying despite Brexit, they couldn't give a hoot. Interest rates are so low and mortgages trump renting.

This is a great tool I stumbled across the other day and makes my point.

https://www.theadvisory.co.uk/propcast/

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I didn't buy bitcoin and watched it go from a few dollars to $20K. I don't feel decimated though.

UK housing is just a giant state-sponsored ponzi scheme. It doesn't bother me that I'm not part of it, but it bothers me that the tax I pay goes towards propping it up at all costs.

I think you are right in that HM gov and the BoE will impoverish the nation before allowing house prices to correct, but I think it will all come to a head at some point.

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3 hours ago, Speed1987 said:

Although consumers have much to lose if the housing market crashes, the banks are more exposed than anyone...

I highly doubt they will allow the market to crash.

London isnt crashing, London is cooling from its peak. London, being an a major international city, leaving the EU will loose its power. So I can imagine buying pressure has fallen.

Birmingham, Manchester and anywhere with decent infrastructure and jobs are seeing steady growth. 

In Birmingham, where value can be had, buying pressure is unreal. First time buyers are snapping up 130k-170k houses, some with up to 40 viewings. There literally on the market for 3-5 days and sold.

What's going to cause a crash? I cant see anything immediate, people are still buying despite Brexit, they couldn't give a hoot. Interest rates are so low and mortgages trump renting.

This is a great tool I stumbled across the other day and makes my point.

https://www.theadvisory.co.uk/propcast/

PMSL - the same Manchester where it takes 1-2 hours to go from the City Centre to the motorway, due to all the roadworks and congestion? The same Manchester where the trains are regularly delayed and overcrowded? I think Oxford Road is in the top 3 worst performing stations in the UK in terms of punctuality.

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Had a friend over last week and she cannot sell her flat in Manchester. Been on the market for 2 months and not a nibble. The market is dead says her EA. 

In Bucks and Beds is very quiet as well in my search area(s).

There may well be areas still selling well. Don't know anything about Birmingham so did a Rightmove search  for 3+ bedroom properties with Propertylog turned on. My first 5 pages had one sale and 32 reductions. That doesn't bode well for anyone thinking that they can sell easily there.

 

Edited by Flopsy

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17 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

HM gov and the BoE will impoverish the nation before allowing house prices to correct, but I think it will all come to a head at some point.

Just how half witted and retarded they are has been reinforced over the last number of months.  They are in control of little details, not the big picture.

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18 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

Just how half witted and retarded they are has been reinforced over the last number of months.  They are in control of little details, not the big picture.

Roger Bootle's said as much in his last opinion piece in the Telegraph - current political and economic setup is ossified, not meeting the needs of the nation, and needs a reset.

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  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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