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Moving to BT7 in 2017


father_v

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HOLA441
On 24/09/2017 at 7:07 PM, filibuster said:

https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/UPS11217-3-10088696/58-Beechgrove-Avenue/

This one was at £208K, was hinting that they I would need to be putting in an offer of £210k by end of day as seller was happy with the current offer. I haven't been keeping a record as I lose interest when they are already well over asking price.

Is that House Really worth the guts of a Quarter of a million pounds? Maybe Im totoally out of touch of what Houses should be selling for but I cant see Belfast having the Wage supply to pay for all these long term.

That is steep for there!  What was the peak up there at 07?

I read an article that Interest Rates will be rising sooner rather than later (before the end of this year).  Any chances of that cooling things off a bit?

It keeps being said on here about rises can't last and that the property is overpriced.  Is there a danger of wishing for something that won't happen and "missing the boat".  Is there any reason for a rate rise and Brexit to lower prices?

In fact, is it possible that a potential different Brexit deal for NI to GB would actually result in a rise or continuation of the current trend?

 

 

 

 

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HOLA442
22 hours ago, ravedave said:

That is steep for there!  What was the peak up there at 07?

I read an article that Interest Rates will be rising sooner rather than later (before the end of this year).  Any chances of that cooling things off a bit?

It keeps being said on here about rises can't last and that the property is overpriced.  Is there a danger of wishing for something that won't happen and "missing the boat".  Is there any reason for a rate rise and Brexit to lower prices?

In fact, is it possible that a potential different Brexit deal for NI to GB would actually result in a rise or continuation of the current trend?

 

 

 

 

No matter what way the  Brexit negotiations go I cannot see any outcome that would help to improve the NI economy and/or cause an increase in house prices apart from cost plus inflation which is not good for anyone.

House price inflation in NI has been very low over the last few years and I don't see that increasing. There is a shortage in supply and I don't see that changing either and unfortunately that will be an upward pressure on both house prices and land prices but it is simply impossible to say what impact the various pressures have on actual prices 1, 2 or 3 years ahead.

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HOLA443

 

On 13/10/2017 at 4:46 PM, BelfastVI said:

No matter what way the  Brexit negotiations go I cannot see any outcome that would help to improve the NI economy and/or cause an increase in house prices apart from cost plus inflation which is not good for anyone.

House price inflation in NI has been very low over the last few years and I don't see that increasing. There is a shortage in supply and I don't see that changing either and unfortunately that will be an upward pressure on both house prices and land prices but it is simply impossible to say what impact the various pressures have on actual prices 1, 2 or 3 years ahead.

Yup, following it at the moment seems as if it's pretty much on the whim of whichever estate agent brings certain properties to market. Few bits gone up recently in BT7 that're in line with the prices I was seeing at the beginning of the year (170-90 as opposed to into the 200s).

Anyone got any idea what effect, if any, interest rates going up would do? Less this current one than the two mooted for 2018. 

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HOLA444
On 08/11/2017 at 3:28 PM, father_v said:

 

Yup, following it at the moment seems as if it's pretty much on the whim of whichever estate agent brings certain properties to market. Few bits gone up recently in BT7 that're in line with the prices I was seeing at the beginning of the year (170-90 as opposed to into the 200s).

Anyone got any idea what effect, if any, interest rates going up would do? Less this current one than the two mooted for 2018. 

Increasing interest rates cant be seen as inflating house prices. However a 0.25% increase is negotiable.  During the boom interest rates was 1,000%, or 10x higher than it is now. The NIRPPI Report will be out next week but it's results will be pre this announcement.  

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HOLA445
On 08/11/2017 at 3:28 PM, father_v said:

 

Yup, following it at the moment seems as if it's pretty much on the whim of whichever estate agent brings certain properties to market. Few bits gone up recently in BT7 that're in line with the prices I was seeing at the beginning of the year (170-90 as opposed to into the 200s).

Anyone got any idea what effect, if any, interest rates going up would do? Less this current one than the two mooted for 2018. 

I think the biggest effect of interest rate rises will be on contributing to negative sentiment which should cool the market. Add this to the Brexit uncertainty and the property market going forward starts to look shaky. I am currently attempting to move (been looking for a couple of years) and in rare moments of candor from estate agents have discerned 1. Very few houses on the market - could mean lack of certainty about the future & 2. Although Semi Detached properties below 200k are suppose to be selling (not sure how true this is), values are very soft for houses above this level. I take from this that prices could soon fall across most house types but this might be wishful thinking on my part. Discuss?

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HOLA446
4 hours ago, jwrag said:

I think the biggest effect of interest rate rises will be on contributing to negative sentiment which should cool the market. Add this to the Brexit uncertainty and the property market going forward starts to look shaky. I am currently attempting to move (been looking for a couple of years) and in rare moments of candor from estate agents have discerned 1. Very few houses on the market - could mean lack of certainty about the future & 2. Although Semi Detached properties below 200k are suppose to be selling (not sure how true this is), values are very soft for houses above this level. I take from this that prices could soon fall across most house types but this might be wishful thinking on my part. Discuss?

Most houses over that current price are owned outright by boomers with juicy pensions who don't need to move yet. They are sitting pretty and there are only  boomer-to-boomer sales more sort of like house swaps really happening as far as I hear. Loads of other boomers not bothering to put their houses on the market because they see how little action there is out there at the moment.

Dead market and non-boomers cant afford crazy prices is what I see.

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HOLA447
On 11/10/2017 at 1:58 PM, jwrag said:

I think the biggest effect of interest rate rises will be on contributing to negative sentiment which should cool the market. Add this to the Brexit uncertainty and the property market going forward starts to look shaky. I am currently attempting to move (been looking for a couple of years) and in rare moments of candor from estate agents have discerned 1. Very few houses on the market - could mean lack of certainty about the future & 2. Although Semi Detached properties below 200k are suppose to be selling (not sure how true this is), values are very soft for houses above this level. I take from this that prices could soon fall across most house types but this might be wishful thinking on my part. Discuss?

Out of interest why has it taken you so long to move, is it because you can't find a decent house that you want to move to?

I think once you go north of £170K the vast majority of people who can afford such prices are those who have made big sums of money from the property market - either by selling their own house for a big profit, or, in many cases having a relative that died owning a house, which was then sold and the money inherited. So I don't think you have many people to sell to.

The folk who I know who were able to buy at £170K-ish minus any inheritance have a least one person earning over double the average NI wage, and even then they've had to take out a decent length of a mortgage.

The only other young people I know of who bought recently are all those who have inherited more than £50,000 from a relative which has allowed them to buy somewhere. I know of a pair of mates that bought a modest house recently and their combined income is 3.5 times the average salary here.

For most ordinary working couples with kids on the horizon, a £150K mortgage is about what they can stretch to, so things sell at that price, however what I've seen in East Belfast is that over the last 4 years or so the size of house that you get for that price is going down and down....apparently some of the semi's on for that and more near my parents are about 900 square feet which isn't a lot of space to bring a family up in. But people buy them through fear that if they don't get something now they'll never afford anything.

Many of my professional mates on good wages have just said 'sod Belfast' and bought houses elsewhere in NI for cheaper.

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HOLA448

Here's an example that's just been listed of what I'm talking about...semi-detached near a couple of schools in East Belfast....needs completely re-decorated which will be at significant cost. But they're looking £190K.....so by the time you've done it up this house will have cost over £200K:

https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/CBW669989/3-Orby-Gardens/431392799/

Which for a 3 bed semi in the east is ridiculous.

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HOLA449
2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Here's an example that's just been listed of what I'm talking about...semi-detached near a couple of schools in East Belfast....needs completely re-decorated which will be at significant cost. But they're looking £190K.....so by the time you've done it up this house will have cost over £200K:

https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/CBW669989/3-Orby-Gardens/431392799/

Which for a 3 bed semi in the east is ridiculous.

Nice outside. Easy 10k on the inside. Closer to 15-20k I'd think to finish that to a good standard. He's kitchen, bathroom and decorating throughout. 

 

Queue boomer - "when I bought my first house we didn' have wallpaper, the kitchen was a cold water tap and the cooker a firelighter. We had to wash in a bucket and heat the place by lighting our own farts. Oh and interest rates were 3000%."

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HOLA4410

In light of today's NIRPPI announcement, the low housing stock and Brexit etc, what option should someone take who is looking to purchase a long term property to live in?

PWC predicted +1% this year and 0% in 2018 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-40637871).  However, we're currently sitting at +4%.  I really can't see anything in the next 24 months that will cause a big enough dip (inc. Brexit) to make stalling a worthwhile option.

The interest rates rise, whilst was in the headlines probably won't have made much of an effect once people have analysed the effect of it on their finances.

What do the wise heads on here say?

Currently renting @ 600pcm.

Edited by ravedave
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HOLA4411
17 minutes ago, ravedave said:

In light of today's NIRPPI announcement, the low housing stock and Brexit etc, what option should someone take who is looking to purchase a long term property to live in?

PWC predicted +1% this year and 0% in 2018 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-40637871).  However, we're currently sitting at +4%.  I really can't see anything in the next 24 months that will cause a big enough dip (inc. Brexit) to make stalling a worthwhile option.

The interest rates rise, whilst was in the headlines probably won't have made much of an effect once people have analysed the effect of it on their finances.

What do the wise heads on here say?

Currently renting @ 600pcm.

I think today's NIRPPI report includes a statistical blip. Newbuild didn't increase 18% in one quarter and this increased the overall figure by 2%. I expect this to correct itself next quarter so we are, in my opinion, looking at 4% pa increase rather than 6%. Supply of housing is the big problem here and we seam incapable of solving that.

Ni's borrowings to income ratio is significantly below England's indicating that affordability is comparatively good here. But with all these things PWC or no one can predict the future. no body knows what Bretix is never mind the impact it will have on the economy. Very few are predicting a positive outcome, no matter what way they voted.

Base rate is about 10% of its long term average. However mortgage fixed rates are many times that. I expect base rate to continue to rise but it has some way to go.

The supply of rental property is falling and this will become a significant issue in the future. The difficulty in obtaining a BTL mortgage and the new tax treatment of interest means has killed off any new BTL demand and existing stock is been purchased out.  

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