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father_v

Moving to BT7 in 2017

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Hi there,

Canvassing for a couple of opinions here - great info on this forum btw.

I'm moving to Belfast sometime between January-August 18 from London, having been self-employed for a number of years and building up a big, useless deposit (95% of family are living in NI) over here & being able to work remotely/ & (ridiculously) commute via plane when necessary for less than living in other UK cities (grew up in the suburbs and have no intention of locking into a £400pm railfare for the rest of my working days). We're looking for a 3 bed semi in BT7 or the top of BT6 (just below Ormeau Rd).

So my first question relates to timing - there seemed to be a large amount of decent property up around April/May on the main sites, which since has dried up pretty completely - can anyone shed any light on this? Also, it seems as if demand in that area is decent so these fluctuations in supply have a disproportionate effect on price. Something like this - https://www.propertypal.com/131-deramore-avenue-ormeau-road-belfast/471618 - is up at basically the same price as a load of decent stuff from 6 months ago. Is it worth trying to time this for when a few more come back on or would it be better to just jump on asap? 

I'm not taking out a big mortgage and therefore the initial price is more of a concern to me than long term interests rate forecasts etc. Any advice on what sort of property I should be targeting on offers? Something like i've linked I wouldn't actually mind (it seems about 20 grand overpriced to me) as a lot of my family are in trades and I don't have an imperative to move immediately if work needs done and it seems like a way of extracting a bit more value. 

Any ideas or advice appreciated.

 

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58 minutes ago, father_v said:

I'm not taking out a big mortgage and therefore the initial price is more of a concern to me than long term interests rate forecasts etc. Any advice on what sort of property I should be targeting on offers? Something like i've linked I wouldn't actually mind (it seems about 20 grand overpriced to me) as a lot of my family are in trades and I don't have an imperative to move immediately if work needs done and it seems like a way of extracting a bit more value. 

Any ideas or advice appreciated.

 

Hate to tell you but I was also looking at that property called in this morning to see where the bidding had got to and its sitting at £210k currently I can see it pushing £230k tbh as it has no one facing you and no one facing the back thanks to the large garden.

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wow, that's incredible. yeah I did think it has a few advantages in terms of the size of the garden etc but looked like you'd need to plough money into it to get it in good shape. are all semis getting bid up like that in BT7? 

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3 minutes ago, father_v said:

wow, that's incredible. yeah I did think it has a few advantages in terms of the size of the garden etc but looked like you'd need to plough money into it to get it in good shape. are all semis getting bid up like that in BT7? 

Yup. Which is annoying because the bedrooms are tiny, I wouldn't even say its worthy of the 3 bedroom title, more like 2.5 bedrooms. That street is considered one of the best on that side of the Ormeau Road.

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assuming from your post history (sorry for the snoop but seems like you're broadly in the same market as me) you pulled out of the annadale square property then? how many other places have you seen going that much over asking price? seems like you can pretty much totally disregard propertypal starting prices then, sigh. 

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27 minutes ago, OrmeauRoadBuyer said:

Hate to tell you but I was also looking at that property called in this morning to see where the bidding had got to and its sitting at £210k currently I can see it pushing £230k tbh as it has no one facing you and no one facing the back thanks to the large garden.

Someone is willing to pay 210k for a house on Deramore!!! They need their heads looked at. 

 

In fact if someone is willing to pay 160k for that, they need help. 

Edited by 2buyornot2buy

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2 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Someone is willing to pay 210k for a house on Deramore!!! They need their heads looked at. 

 

In fact if someone is willing to pay 160k for that, they need help. 

Yep, totally mind-boggling. I saw that house and thought it was a dump at £170K. But approaching a quarter of a million (by the time you've done it up nicely).....insanity has returned. I don't get what's so incredible about being in the Ormeau area to warrant those prices.

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1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

Yep, totally mind-boggling. I saw that house and thought it was a dump at £170K. But approaching a quarter of a million (by the time you've done it up nicely).....insanity has returned. I don't get what's so incredible about being in the Ormeau area to warrant those prices.

I'd hate to be underwriting the professional indemnity of the surveyor who values it at that. 

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I'm pretty sure there's a small bubble in that area from speaking to my family. Seems like the buyers are people aged 32< and so weren't old enough to have been caught in the last crash and want to be walking distance from decent pubs etc. Even at the 200's if you buy into the buzz a bit (having lived in Peckham and watched it gentrified in exactly the same manner I can see it) it's still do-able on a joint income without too much of a stretch. If you're willing to go to castlereagh there's a lot more value and properties sat for sale for months but not as up and coming an area obviously. 

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18 minutes ago, father_v said:

I'm pretty sure there's a small bubble in that area from speaking to my family. Seems like the buyers are people aged 32< and so weren't old enough to have been caught in the last crash and want to be walking distance from decent pubs etc. Even at the 200's if you buy into the buzz a bit (having lived in Peckham and watched it gentrified in exactly the same manner I can see it) it's still do-able on a joint income without too much of a stretch. If you're willing to go to castlereagh there's a lot more value and properties sat for sale for months but not as up and coming an area obviously. 

Sorry but no

 Gentrification maybe on North/South parade but Deramore? Hackney it is not. 

Under 32 on a joint mortgage is maybe doable at .25% on a 230k house. But realistically not sustainable long-term. 

Ormeau is not stranmillis/Malone. 230k for a house on Deramore is 2007 crazy. 

 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Sorry but no

 Gentrification maybe on North/South parade but Deramore? Hackney it is not. 

Under 32 on a joint mortgage is maybe doable at .25% on a 230k house. But realistically not sustainable long-term. 

Ormeau is not stranmillis/Malone. 230k for a house on Deramore is 2007 crazy. 

 

 

 

I suppose that's where the gentrification label differs from london - belfast, you wouldn't localise it to one street - it'd be the area. Haven't north/south parade always been nice? 

yeah 230 seems nuts, if it's at 210 though I really don't see it jumping up that much further again (obviously not including the inevitable cost of renovation here). plus whichever maniac bid that has to get the mortgage signed off - seen a few houses round there come back on having probably been bid up further than they should have.

question on stranmillis - looking at it, the housing stock seems great and as you say if BT7 is around those prices it's a better postcode, but whenever i've walked through there you seem to be ages walk away from any shops/pubs/restaurants etc - am I just missing a road or something?

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41 minutes ago, father_v said:

I suppose that's where the gentrification label differs from london - belfast, you wouldn't localise it to one street - it'd be the area. Haven't north/south parade always been nice? 

yeah 230 seems nuts, if it's at 210 though I really don't see it jumping up that much further again (obviously not including the inevitable cost of renovation here). plus whichever maniac bid that has to get the mortgage signed off - seen a few houses round there come back on having probably been bid up further than they should have.

question on stranmillis - looking at it, the housing stock seems great and as you say if BT7 is around those prices it's a better postcode, but whenever i've walked through there you seem to be ages walk away from any shops/pubs/restaurants etc - am I just missing a road or something?

Good streets can surrounded by dumps in Belfast. You only have to go one street over in some cases to be in the middle of the ghetto. Ormeau has that a bit, particularly on that side of the road. Stranmillis doesn't really suffer from that when you move past the roundabout and closer to Malone. 

North/South parade was always nice but post crash some of the HMOs have been bought and converted back to houses. Even these streets were big for rentals but seem to have come back to OO.

I still personally wouldn't buy there. I don't like return extensions and small yards in a 5 bed house. 

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Yeah, i'm aware of that a bit more (assume particularly around lisbrun road) - seems general reluctance on buyers behalf keeps that the way it is too.

That's interesting. I do love the aesthetic of those N/S parade houses coming from london but it does seem a bit stupid to spend that much and end up without any useable outdoor space. which areas would you be looking at?

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4 minutes ago, father_v said:

Yeah, i'm aware of that a bit more (assume particularly around lisbrun road) - seems general reluctance on buyers behalf keeps that the way it is too.

That's interesting. I do love the aesthetic of those N/S parade houses coming from london but it does seem a bit stupid to spend that much and end up without any useable outdoor space. which areas would you be looking at?

I've bought in BT9 so obviously I'm bias. I prefer BT9 but them you're looking at 20-30% plus ormeau prices. It's a trade off. 

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3 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

I've bought in BT9 so obviously I'm bias. I prefer BT9 but them you're looking at 20-30% plus ormeau prices. It's a trade off. 

Interesting thing about BT9 is that there's a ton of houses in the 'Sharman' streets that don't seem to be shifting for some reason. I'm assuming because even though they're detached they have small gardens? Or maybe Stranmillis/Malone isn't seen as fashionable as somewhere like Ormeau by young folk now.

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22 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Interesting thing about BT9 is that there's a ton of houses in the 'Sharman' streets that don't seem to be shifting for some reason. I'm assuming because even though they're detached they have small gardens? Or maybe Stranmillis/Malone isn't seen as fashionable as somewhere like Ormeau by young folk now.

Just had a look there. I'd say a mixture of things. Small gardens for detached. Only 3 beds. The stone facade doesn't look good and the stairs are in the living room. Oh and price. 

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was surprised recently when looking at Ormeau  and Ravinhill area at how the prices have come up. (Sadly I have no sites in that area).

It is also amazing what a few streets can mean.

one side of the Methodist playing fields are at £85k on the other over £300k.

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20 minutes ago, BelfastVI said:

was surprised recently when looking at Ormeau  and Ravinhill area at how the prices have come up. (Sadly I have no sites in that area).

It is also amazing what a few streets can mean.

one side of the Methodist playing fields are at £85k on the other over £300k.

You don't even need to go a few streets. 

Ormeau road end of Ardenlee = nice

Other end = dump

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8 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

You don't even need to go a few streets. 

Ormeau road end of Ardenlee = nice

Other end = dump

Hardly, the housing stock at the Cregagh end is just as classy as the Raven end. The difference is cultural. There are plenty of solidly middle class streets on the Cregagh road, but to a certain extent the residents are allergic to Catholics- this is a common feature of affluent East Belfast and it's not far off the mark to say that if you really placed a high value on living in a normal (by mainland UK standards) non-sectarian area... you would probably want to buy in Ormeau or similar areas in South Belfast. And I suspect that fact alone adds at least 20 grand to the asking price.

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I have been keeping an eye on South Belfast and every property I have enquired about is well over the asking price. I just don't see the value.
Most people who I talk to (work/Friends) throw around the £150k+ mortgage isn't a big deal.  Personally I couldn't live with that level of debt.
I was too young to be involved in the 2008 crash, are Belfast prices heading that way again, or is it just certain areas? 

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I think what is surprising is not so much the fact that young people are willing to go over the asking price, but that they are bidding on these sort of houses at all. By that I mean, anecdotally I know of a few people in their thirties who are buying big houses over 150k, which to me are far above what you'd expect for first time buyers. Like you said, there are a surprising amount of people who are blase about taking on such a huge debt. They seem to be determined to buy a home that is similar to the one their middle class parents currently live in. But their parents would have had higher wages, probably bought in a 70's downturn, and it might have been their second or third house purchase. It's almost like they want instant gratification- their first house purchase has to have two big gardens (regardless of whether they'll use them much), a spacious driveway, bedrooms that it will take at least five years of childrearing to fill. They don't see the attraction of saving 50k on a mortgage if it involves the hardship of having to live in a terrace house with on street parking- which at some point in time their affluent parents may very well have done, but these thirty-somethings may be too young to remember that.

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19 hours ago, filibuster said:

I have been keeping an eye on South Belfast and every property I have enquired about is well over the asking price. 

Can you give a couple of examples? Type of house, price, and how far over asking they're going for?

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6 hours ago, rattusrattus said:

I think what is surprising is not so much the fact that young people are willing to go over the asking price, but that they are bidding on these sort of houses at all. By that I mean, anecdotally I know of a few people in their thirties who are buying big houses over 150k, which to me are far above what you'd expect for first time buyers. Like you said, there are a surprising amount of people who are blase about taking on such a huge debt. They seem to be determined to buy a home that is similar to the one their middle class parents currently live in. But their parents would have had higher wages, probably bought in a 70's downturn, and it might have been their second or third house purchase. It's almost like they want instant gratification- their first house purchase has to have two big gardens (regardless of whether they'll use them much), a spacious driveway, bedrooms that it will take at least five years of childrearing to fill. They don't see the attraction of saving 50k on a mortgage if it involves the hardship of having to live in a terrace house with on street parking- which at some point in time their affluent parents may very well have done, but these thirty-somethings may be too young to remember that.

Their middle class parents had greater wage inflation to eat away at the mortgages, meaning there was actually such a thing as a housing ladder. If someone in their early/mid 30's is stretching themselves to buy a modest family home, chances are they will only actually own one or two houses in their lifetime. The size of debt you have to take on to buy anything, and the relatively higher age you're doing so at, means the prospect of a 'ladder' no longer really applies.

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13 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Can you give a couple of examples? Type of house, price, and how far over asking they're going for?

https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/UPS11217-3-10088696/58-Beechgrove-Avenue/

This one was at £208K, was hinting that they I would need to be putting in an offer of £210k by end of day as seller was happy with the current offer. I haven't been keeping a record as I lose interest when they are already well over asking price.

Is that House Really worth the guts of a Quarter of a million pounds? Maybe Im totoally out of touch of what Houses should be selling for but I cant see Belfast having the Wage supply to pay for all these long term.

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33 minutes ago, filibuster said:

https://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/UPS11217-3-10088696/58-Beechgrove-Avenue/

This one was at £208K, was hinting that they I would need to be putting in an offer of £210k by end of day as seller was happy with the current offer. I haven't been keeping a record as I lose interest when they are already well over asking price.

Is that House Really worth the guts of a Quarter of a million pounds? Maybe Im totoally out of touch of what Houses should be selling for but I cant see Belfast having the Wage supply to pay for all these long term.

I think it's desperation at there not being too many 'nice' houses on the market - there's a lot of dross out there. At the end of the day it's still a 3 bed semi in a city where the average wage is £24,000.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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