Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
homeless

Oil The Catalyst For The Depression

Recommended Posts

There is the odd deniel still spouted around, and the obvious deflection of the truth from governments to quell unrest.But reality is now overtaken spin.

Russia is obviously not a reliable source of gas, it has been restricting supplies to country after country, others it has forced the prices up,Today its georgia tomorrow austria.

Report's not by a dumb scare mongering freelancer's but by important financial and political institutions are freeling flowing now about peak oil, ie merryl lynch(spelling), shell, conoco, virgin group ect are all predicting peak oil has already been reached.GWB mentioned twice in the last year about the importance to not rely on imported oil so much.And respected oilmen that are the journalists and scientist's have stated this week that kuwait is past peak oil, and its fields will decline at as fast a rate as the north sea has ie 10% per year from peak.

And this week at the davos summit, people like george soros, bill gates, richard brandson, berkshire hathaway's ceo, have stated quite sewriously oil will increase massively in cost in the next couple years.

Then there is canada putting in place massive engineering to superheat oil shale sands to remove the carbons, this process uses 1 barrel of oil for each two recovered and has never ever been financially viable till now, ie its not like they just discovered this shale and its potential , its been known and used since the first settlers of canada.

So either the worlds gone mad or were in trouble for energy not in the future but now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I completely agree, oil (price) has been the main contributer to 7 of the last 8 recessions.

How much is there left is still up for debate, but it seems to me that with the exception of Saudi Arabia many main areas are war torn, Iraq, Iran to be IMHO, Nigeria, Kuwait, North Sea etc. to name a few. You also mention Russia which is a biggie having the main stakes on Gas.

Crunch, it could happen with major devestation, and I think it will at the very least be felt in all of our pockets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Russia has more natural gas than anyone else and much of the rest is in the Middle East countries, notably Iran. Gas is a geographically concentrated resource just like oil with all the political and security issues that go with it. Oil and gas are more alike than most are willing to admit.

That said, it's pretty obvious that Russia is having production problems and is unable to meet its contracts whilst maintaining supplies at home. It's country after country they are all of a sudden having disputes with. That to me looks very much like a convenient excuse for the reality that they just can't maintain supplies.

Longer term, the possibility that Russia in particular suspends energy exports altogether must be considered. It's not exactly a tropical climate there so they need heating. And of course they would gain a truly massive economic advantage by being the only country with abundant natural gas supplies. Likewise the big oil exporters could well do likewise. Indeed the effect of the Iraq war has thus far been to preserve the oil in that country in the ground thus ensuring an even greater geographic concentration of that resource as reserves elsewhere are used up.

Many people have seen this coming for a long time. Personally I've been aware of it since 1988 and got serious about it in 1991. That's not intended as "I told you so" boasting but simply an observation. I was still in school at the time so it wasn't as if I had access to confidential information and a meeting with the CEO of some oil company. I just found the info, much of it in public libraries and published 15 - 40 years earlier.

It's been known for a LONG time that this day would come and yet still no action is taken. The bad news is we ain't seen nothing yet. By 2020 at the absolute latest I expect the saving of oil and gas to be an outright priority for practically every country. It's foreseeable that there'll be some denial for a few more years though, especially about gas, hence 2020 and not now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Imo, a major reason for the denial of energy problems by so many at the top, both political and corporate, is that this issue challenges one of the "givens" of the moment, Globalisation.

This is sold as the only way forward and as good for all Nations.

Think how important tourism is to many countries, especially poorer ones with much to offer tourists from wealthier places.

To now start backtracking on issues such as tourism, food from everywhere, goods shipped from everywhere would be hard both politically and economically.

I do think that many in Political Establishments had believed that Globalisation would be a stabilising force due to economic interdependence. Probably a too simple and "fluffy" view.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excuse me - even Saudi Arabia's stocks are under question in the Kuwait article linked somewhe on this site. Sorry I don't have the link.

Best I can work out is that the figures they quote are total recoverable oil discovered to date, not that which actually remains.

Also most Saudi fields basically don't work properly so their production is very heavily concentrated with one field accounting for about half of the total. With the amount of water being injected into that field (reportedly 15 million barrels of sea water per day) and the reliance on horizontal drilling to maintain production levels the prospect of a rapid decline (it will come some day, the question is when) is very real.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best I can work out is that the figures they quote are total recoverable oil discovered to date, not that which actually remains.

Also most Saudi fields basically don't work properly so their production is very heavily concentrated with one field accounting for about half of the total. With the amount of water being injected into that field (reportedly 15 million barrels of sea water per day) and the reliance on horizontal drilling to maintain production levels the prospect of a rapid decline (it will come some day, the question is when) is very real.

Many commentators believe that if we haven't already reached peak then we will do by the end of this decade.

If we do hit peak - it's pointless worrying about house prices and more important to worry about eating and keeping going.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excuse me - even Saudi Arabia's stocks are under question in the Kuwait article linked somewhe on this site. Sorry I don't have the link.

Guess where the world's largest oil reserves are believed to be?

Nope.

They are in:

Canada + USA combined.

http://www.rense.com/general37/petrol.htm

When the Middle East runs dry in a few years guess what? And the dollar is in trouble?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guess where the world's largest oil reserves are believed to be?

Nope.

They are in:

Canada + USA combined.

http://www.rense.com/general37/petrol.htm

When the Middle East runs dry in a few years guess what? And the dollar is in trouble?

I have often thought that this could likely be the case - strategically it makes perfect sense...taking two facts:

1. The worlds oil is running out (and I am sure the people at the top in America must have known about this for years before it became more general knowledge);

2. Fact number 1. is not widely known.

The rational strategic move is to project your power abroad to secure as many oil reserves as possible (iraq etc.)...also import as much oil as possible from abroad as well whilst not touching your own oil fields....also you should be building up reserves as much as possible. This can be done because other nations are unable to stop you (American military power) and/or they are not fully aware of the peak oil problem. Also the price of oil is cheaper because peak oil is not factored into it (the price will shoot up when peak oil becomes an accepted reality, and we reach the energy 'end-game'). When the end-game comes, you have robbed as much of the oil from outside your territory as possible - you can then retreat into your country, and survive off your domestic supplies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excuse me - even Saudi Arabia's stocks are under question in the Kuwait article linked somewhe on this site. Sorry I don't have the link.

There's a big question mark hanging over all OPEC stated reserves. See article here.

Many people have seen this coming for a long time. Personally I've been aware of it since 1988 and got serious about it in 1991. That's not intended as "I told you so" boasting but simply an observation. I was still in school at the time so it wasn't as if I had access to confidential information and a meeting with the CEO of some oil company. I just found the info, much of it in public libraries and published 15 - 40 years earlier.

This is the scary thing. The information is out there for anyone to see, these days the broadsheets are directly mentioning "peak oil" on a weekly basis. News Night did a full 50 minute show on the subject, Matt Simmons has been on the Today Programme... the problem is that 99% of the population just aren't interested. If no one's interested then there's not a lot of point in dedicating many column inches or minutes of broadcast to it since all media organisations are primarily and permanently in a ratings war. Even the BBC, since without ratings it can't justify its self.

This is bad and leads to the 24 hour coverage of The Whale last week. It wasn't really particularly important but since it was popular it got the coverage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Canadian tar sands are in................. Canada!

Canada is NOT part of the USA. Canada is a separate country with its own government and own currency. Simply producing a lot of oil in Canada doesn't help the US Dollar unless they plan on taking over Canada or somehow convincing them to switch to using the US Dollar as their currency.

As for the actual production rate, realistically 10 million barrels per day seems to be about the upper limit on a gross basis with about a third of that used to fuel the process. So 7 million barrels per day versus world demand of about 84 million (25% of that being US demand).

It helps but it's already factored in to mose respectable forecasts of future oil supply. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As for the actual production rate, realistically 10 million barrels per day seems to be about the upper limit on a gross basis with about a third of that used to fuel the process. So 7 million barrels per day versus world demand of about 84 million (25% of that being US demand).

Also, super-heavy resources such as the Canadian tar sands (and the Venezuelan bitumen resource in the Orinoco basin for that matter) are much more expensive and slower to ramp up than conventional oil.

That said, if push really comes to shove you can be sure the provisions of NAFTA (which are already causing angst WRT Canadian Gas) would ensure that the US would retain access to the lion's share of Canada's oil. Failing that Canada would one way or the other rapidly become part of the US.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Canadas oil will be depleted in about 20 years anyway, now if they left it where it was i could understand usa aggresion in the future, but the truth is there all gonna be depleting about the same time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, super-heavy resources such as the Canadian tar sands (and the Venezuelan bitumen resource in the Orinoco basin for that matter) are much more expensive and slower to ramp up than conventional oil.

That said, if push really comes to shove you can be sure the provisions of NAFTA (which are already causing angst WRT Canadian Gas) would ensure that the US would retain access to the lion's share of Canada's oil. Failing that Canada would one way or the other rapidly become part of the US.

Canada is already part of the US in the global world business community sense. Also, there are undoubtedly oil reserves adjacent to Alaska in the NW Territories where the environmentalists say oilmen dare not tread.

Some good news for the UK though--oil moving toward $100 bbl--we have coal, a lot of coal and new technology has made it environmentally acceptable. Time to invest in UK Coal (UKC--up 3.25% Friday!). It will come on stream after the HPC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....74&in_page_id=2

Sugar-powered car sends markets into frenzy
Simon Watkins, Mail on Sunday
29 January 2006
SUGAR soared to a 25-year high on world commodity markets last week - but the price jump had nothing to do with builders taking more lumps in their tea.
Experts blamed Brazilian motorists, who have been swapping petrol-driven cars for those powered by ethanol - better known as grain alcohol and easily distilled from sugar cane.

Surprise surprise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Funny you should mention that:

http://service.spiegel.de/cache/internatio...,334165,00.html

60 billion
barrels of oil lie under the ocean around the Falkland Islands, say experts.

You are not far off the truth! Does anyone see the BIG PICTURE yet?

Wow! Thanks for flagging that one up. It never occurred to me that we went to war over more than just a barren rock that might be in a vaguely strategic position (strategic for what, I don't know). Were oil reserves mentioned at the time? Where did you hear about this? Is it widespread opinion among peak oil types? Although I've heard about peak oil for a while, I'm only now beginning to give serious thought to what it means for our way of life.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone hazard a guess as to house prices on the wealthiest little Island in the world? Imagine HPI once they start tapping into one of the World's largest oil fields!

Also, good old Maggie you got that one right ducks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guess where the world's largest oil reserves are believed to be?

The Falkland Islands.

LOL, where did you read that, the Daily Sport? Various oil companies have been dragging themselves out to the South Atlantic for decades now, still no commercial production. If it's not viable at nearly $70 a barrel (when tar sands are) it will never be developed.

60 billion barrels of oil lie under the ocean around the Falkland Islands, say experts.

Yes, they may be experts, but in what? Obviously not petro-geology. Tic-tac-toe perhaps?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 332 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.