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TheCountOfNowhere

new-build homes....central London plummeted....55 per cent

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Why did no one see this coming ?

 

The number of luxury new-build homes sold in central London has plummeted 55 per cent

http://www.cityam.com/272283/number-luxury-new-build-homes-sold-central-london-has

 

 

Normally prices follow volumes.....will be a BIG drop.

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Shhhhh, dont tell anyone what I am about to say.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, the average price of a #buytolet home in the capital fell 12 per cent to £816,000

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Shhhhh, dont tell anyone what I am about to say.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, the average price of a #buytolet home in the capital fell 12 per cent to £816,000

But muh yields will be big innit. just raise rents.

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It's nice for sentiment, but massive pinch of salt with LCP's analysis. They've been shown to over-exaggerate because they use Land Registry figures without taking account of the lag in recent transactions making it onto the registry. So comparing Q1 with Q2, when a lot of Q2 sales haven't been registered yet, gives you a distorted figure like 55%. 

Having said that, you have to ask if developers are being deliberately slow to register sales with the Land Registry so that buyers of remaining units don't see if prices of recently sold units have come down ... 

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This should also be viewed in the light of the 54k luxury flats which have been built over the last two or three years in London. IIRC there were only around 4k sales per annum during the peak times in the same area. This equated to 13 years supply. With a 55% drop in volumes we have around 26 years supply now. 

They are hilarious. All super luxury with concierge and flowers in the shared spaces. Who the fick is going to buy all these? They are going to end up as social housing and I doubt there will be concierge and orchids in the lobby.

 

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2 minutes ago, Sawitcoming said:

This should also be viewed in the light of the 54k luxury flats which have been built over the last two or three years in London. IIRC there were only around 4k sales per annum during the peak times in the same area. This equated to 13 years supply. With a 55% drop in volumes we have around 26 years supply now. 

They are hilarious. All super luxury with concierge and flowers in the shared spaces. Who the fick is going to buy all these? They are going to end up as social housing and I doubt there will be concierge and orchids in the lobby.

 

Hopefully no flammable cladding this time either.

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3 minutes ago, Sawitcoming said:

This should also be viewed in the light of the 54k luxury flats which have been built over the last two or three years in London.

Those 54k luxury flats will soon become...just flats. Once they become cheap enough for more people to rent or buy. :lol:

The ripple effect can't come soon enough. :mellow:

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Expect a bloodbath at Nine Elms and in the old Olympia site at Earls Court. 

I met a banker who had avoided funding the building of either as just too high risk. That was a very wise decision. 

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2 hours ago, MattW said:

Those 54k luxury flats will soon become...just flats. Once they become cheap enough for more people to rent or buy. :lol:

The ripple effect can't come soon enough. :mellow:

I've written on this before - the problem is they can't become just flats. They come with several thousand a year of service charges. Which is reasonable when they are worth 800 grand, but not when they are worth 180. That's when they become unsaleable. 

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6 minutes ago, Chrippie said:

I've written on this before - the problem is they can't become just flats. They come with several thousand a year of service charges. Which is reasonable when they are worth 800 grand, but not when they are worth 180. That's when they become unsaleable. 

Indeed. Bear in mind that the 54k was only counting the ones expected to be 1m and over.  How many in the 500k - 1m range are there?

 

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4 hours ago, Slimline said:

woohoo, bring on the ripples!

Can't come soon enough. I checked out a housing development near where I work (Greenhithe/Dartford) today, they launched the final phase on Saturday. All but one sold that weekend.

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5 minutes ago, Timhm said:

Can't come soon enough. I checked out a housing development near where I work (Greenhithe/Dartford) today, they launched the final phase on Saturday. All but one sold that weekend.

Which one?

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10 minutes ago, Sawitcoming said:

Which one?

Not sure what specifically you're referring to here... the development is called St. Clements Lakes, and the place left unsold was a 3-bedroom one.

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Is it this one?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/developer/branch/Bellway-Homes-Ltd/St-Clements-Lakes-125536.html

I am not surprised if these sell at the moment. There is very little that is affordable for normal families. This looks reasonably pleasant from the marketing material. I assume it qualifies for HTB in London and that is 40%.  

What were the prices like?

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4 minutes ago, Sawitcoming said:

Is it this one?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/developer/branch/Bellway-Homes-Ltd/St-Clements-Lakes-125536.html

I am not surprised if these sell at the moment. There is very little that is affordable for normal families. This looks reasonably pleasant from the marketing material. I assume it qualifies for HTB in London and that is 40%.  

What were the prices like?

That's the one. Not quite as glossy as the 3D renders make it out to be, but they have done quite a good job at making it pleasant. It doesn't qualify for London HTB as far as I know, although the prices weren't as bad as I had feared. The 2-bed flats that I was looking at were up for £260k, which compares quite favourably with similar properties in neighbouring developments. Unfortunately for me, Greenhithe is very popular with London commuters for whom £260k is a steal compared to London prices.

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2 minutes ago, Timhm said:

That's the one. Not quite as glossy as the 3D renders make it out to be, but they have done quite a good job at making it pleasant. It doesn't qualify for London HTB as far as I know, although the prices weren't as bad as I had feared. The 2-bed flats that I was looking at were up for £260k, which compares quite favourably with similar properties in neighbouring developments. Unfortunately for me, Greenhithe is very popular with London commuters for whom £260k is a steal compared to London prices.

I imagine there are many people locked into the idea of buying for whatever reason. Something they may have decided ages ago. The low deposit and prices probably seem really appealing.  

All of these 500k - 1m flats in central London are a different story. Who is going to buy them / live in them? 

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8 hours ago, Chrippie said:

I've written on this before - the problem is they can't become just flats. They come with several thousand a year of service charges. Which is reasonable when they are worth 800 grand, but not when they are worth 180. That's when they become unsaleable. 

They are just flats. The level of the service charge and what that provides doesn’t make them ‘luxury flats’, that is just marketing. At some point the developer will be forced by lack of sales to either raise the annual fee for the sold flats to cover their losses or drop the level of what it provides to allow the remaining flats to be sold. The existing residents should sell now before their losses accelerate the first to will be the lucky ones.

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12 hours ago, Sawitcoming said:

 

They are going to end up as social housing and I doubt there will be concierge and orchids in the lobby.

 

More likely likely a copper and a sharps bin!

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7 hours ago, Sawitcoming said:

I imagine there are many people locked into the idea of buying for whatever reason. Something they may have decided ages ago. The low deposit and prices probably seem really appealing.  

All of these 500k - 1m flats in central London are a different story. Who is going to buy them / live in them? 

There are 947 flats for sale in Nine Elms Battersea at the moment - a huge number. 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^70423&maxBedrooms=10&minBedrooms=0&propertyTypes=flat&primaryDisplayPropertyType=flats

If I put back in the "sold STC" filter, it adds less than 100 properties - in my experience that is s very low ratio and a good way of showing how slow the market is. 

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  • 297 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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