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End of the urban revival

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/opinion/cities-suburbs-housing-crime.html?mcubz=1

From stateside but relevant to London...flagging enthusiasm for the city...tide turning?  Falling prices in London support this position.  In summary...

"The end of the urban re vival  Writing in the New York Times, eminent urbanist Richard Florida points to the end of the ur ban revival upon which he based his 2002 work ‘The Rise of the Creative Class’, and which dominates most lazy, mod ern think ing about Mill ennials and what they want.   Florida cites rising house prices, rising crime and a widen ing wealth gap between established occupants and new comers as driving the reversal of migration into city centres. However, funda mentally, Florida also acknowledges that most people in fact want to live in ‘detached suburban homes’ and these simply don’t exist (either in fact, or at sensible prices) in the world’s major city centres. The facts are undeniable, but there are no easy sol utions. With lengthy and un reliable commutes also becoming un palatable, does this present opp ortunities for mid-sized towns and emerging suburban centres to re capture young talent? "

 

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The US is generally very different. Its only a fairly recent thing that people have seen 'City' living in most of their big cities as something attractive.

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19 hours ago, ccc said:

The US is generally very different. Its only a fairly recent thing that people have seen 'City' living in most of their big cities as something attractive.

House prices in US suburbs much cheaper than UK, Canada, Oz etc but trend similar everywhere in rich English speaking world and northern europe - ie. urban renewal since late 1980s after decades of decline

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from Iceni...

No surprise to us....

http://www.iceniprojects.com/london-no-longer-place-to-be/

 

Is London no longer the place to be?

It is time to wake up and smell the expensive coffee that we millennials love to drink, because London is no longer suitable for us. 

After experiencing the financial crash of 2008, working for virtually nothing, and dealing with the harsh reality that the dream of home ownership is slipping further away, we need to face up to the fact that moving to London can no longer be considered a path lined with gold. 

If London is no longer calling to the faraway towns, then who is London for, and what does it mean for our capital? 

I’m sure that none of you will be surprised to hear that the symptoms of London’s housing crisis are wide ranging and concerning. The number of people leaving the capital to live elsewhere has hit a five-year high. In the year to June 2016, net outward migration from London reached 93,300 people – more than 80% higher than five years earlier. 

Here are just three indirect effects of London’s housing crisis:

London is becoming a commuting city: research by Richard Boyd (Arup) has shown that 790,000 people commute across the GLA boundary every day, a 9% increase on 2001. This number of people is greater than the populations of Manchester and Salford combined. Why does this matter? There are 4.5 million jobs in London, so 18% of London’s jobs are held by people living outside of the capital. That’s a significant number of people dependent on a creaking transport network that is vulnerable to industrial action and weather.

London is becoming older: London’s housing crisis is having an impact on the demographics of the capital and the South-east. In total, the number of children aged less than four living in London fell by almost 18,000 in 2015, and overall net migration for this age group has risen by nearly 50% since 2012. When people reach the stage where they have children, they want to trade up in the housing market, and in London the gap between a two-bed and a three or four-bed property has widened, add on the cost of childcare and moving out and commuting becomes a progressive lifestyle decision.

London is becoming less productive: a study of more than 34,000 workers across all UK industries, developed by VitalityHealth, the University of Cambridge, RAND Europe and Mercer, examined the impact of commuting on productivity. It found those who commuted to work in under half an hour gain an additional seven days' worth of productive time each year as opposed to those with commutes of an hour or more.


 

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On 19/09/2017 at 4:29 PM, ccc said:

The US is generally very different. Its only a fairly recent thing that people have seen 'City' living in most of their big cities as something attractive.

Nah, baloney.

The center of most US cities has always been expensive. Manhattan, just like London has maintained desirability over the decades.

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43 minutes ago, Wayward said:

from Iceni...

No surprise to us....

http://www.iceniprojects.com/london-no-longer-place-to-be/


 

If London is no longer calling to the faraway towns, then who is London for, and what does it mean for our capital? 

Its for those from Bologna, Bilbao, Bescancon and Braga.....(note no German towns included here lol).... it means an even more transient soul less place....

London is becoming a commuting city

It always has been a commuting city.... no doubt in 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997  etc.  790,000 people a day commuted across the GLA boundary and 18% of all jobs were done by people living outside the capital. Without the people commuting in from Essex, Surrey & Kent everyday the economy of the City would collapse.

 The 9% increase merely reflects the 9% increase in population since 2001. In fact its probably lower...

London is becoming older

This is also untrue the demographics of London are far younger than surrounding regions even with the families with young kids moving out.

London is becoming less productive

This may be true but Evening Standard propaganda is always telling us how productive London is in comparison to other UK regions... 

 

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45 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Nah, baloney.

The center of most US cities has always been expensive. Manhattan, just like London has maintained desirability over the decades.

Only parts of Manhattan - areas like SoHo - now super luxury areas - were practically no-go zones in the 70s / early 80s - there's a reason that's the area the New York punk scene originated. It was an area of derelict warehouses and heroin. That changed pretty rapidly in the 1980s (Trump made a fortune buying property off the bankrupt city and then riding the wave of its extraordinary regeneration) - but its a reminder of how the fortunes of cities - even major ones - can swing pretty rapidly. Detroit's the most famous modern example.

People also forget that the population of London was actually falling up until the 1990s. There's a generation of architects - like Norman Foster and Richard Rogers who really pushed for the idea of inner-city living and urban regenration - and that has lead to city life becoming fashionable again - but before them, the mood was very much a flight to the suburbs.

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1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

It's also becoming less white.

 

Wonder how that'll work out......

Better food and something else to look at rather than grumpy white people? And just to settle a bet with myself, do you live in the country and encounter few non-whites in your daily life in comparison to a city-dweller?

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Its all becomes cool

Then people move in cool people art farty types using the spaces for design and kooky shops etc

Then the rich come and the foreign investors and the prices go up

It becomes stale as rich people/tourists would rather consume the scene than contribute to it

Those who manned the art scene and the kooky shops move out as they cannot afford it

only really poor immigrants can afford to work there along with the super rich.

rich folks then walk down the street and think hey this is boring and crime is on the way up see you later.

...........falls till the process repeats

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10 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Its all becomes cool

Then people move in cool people art farty types using the spaces for design and kooky shops etc

Then the rich come and the foreign investors and the prices go up

It becomes stale as rich people/tourists would rather consume the scene than contribute to it

Those who manned the art scene and the kooky shops move out as they cannot afford it

only really poor immigrants can afford to work there along with the super rich.

rich folks then walk down the street and think hey this is boring and crime is on the way up see you later.

...........falls till the process repeats

This phenomenon was looked at by the Chicago School of Sociology.

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2 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Nah, baloney.

The center of most US cities has always been expensive. Manhattan, just like London has maintained desirability over the decades.

 

1 hour ago, lostinessex said:

Only parts of Manhattan - areas like SoHo - now super luxury areas - were practically no-go zones in the 70s / early 80s - there's a reason that's the area the New York punk scene originated. It was an area of derelict warehouses and heroin. That changed pretty rapidly in the 1980s (Trump made a fortune buying property off the bankrupt city and then riding the wave of its extraordinary regeneration) - but its a reminder of how the fortunes of cities - even major ones - can swing pretty rapidly. Detroit's the most famous modern example.

People also forget that the population of London was actually falling up until the 1990s. There's a generation of architects - like Norman Foster and Richard Rogers who really pushed for the idea of inner-city living and urban regenration - and that has lead to city life becoming fashionable again - but before them, the mood was very much a flight to the suburbs.

One of the above knows what they are talking about.

As noted - even Manhattan - the uber top of the table most expensive inner city area of any US city was until relatively recently still covered in seriously dodgy areas. Never mind similar areas in every other US City.

 

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15 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Its all becomes cool

Then people move in cool people art farty types using the spaces for design and kooky shops etc

Then the rich come and the foreign investors and the prices go up

It becomes stale as rich people/tourists would rather consume the scene than contribute to it

Those who manned the art scene and the kooky shops move out as they cannot afford it

only really poor immigrants can afford to work there along with the super rich.

rich folks then walk down the street and think hey this is boring and crime is on the way up see you later.

...........falls till the process repeats

I think in London we are some where  between

"Those who manned the art scene and the kooky shops move out as they cannot afford it"

and

"only really poor immigrants can afford to work there along with the super rich."


Anecdotally, a lot of the arty creative types (at least they think they are lol) I know have left London recently for cheaper  North Kent coast (Whitstable, Herne Bay, Margate) or down to the South Coast....      

 

Edited by skomer

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35 minutes ago, skomer said:

I think in London we are some where  between

"Those who manned the art scene and the kooky shops move out as they cannot afford it"

and

"only really poor immigrants can afford to work there along with the super rich."


Anecdotally, a lot of the arty creative types (at least they think they are lol) I know have left London recently for cheaper  North Kent coast (Whitstable, Herne Bay, Margate) or down to the South Coast....      

 

We must be reaching peak EA ******** when Norwich is called the new Notting Hill.

Even Notting Hill has not been Notting Hill since 1999 

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1 hour ago, skomer said:

Anecdotally, a lot of the arty creative types (at least they think they are lol) I know have left London recently for cheaper  North Kent coast (Whitstable, Herne Bay, Margate) or down to the South Coast....      

I thought they had left the country...if they had any sense they would.  They can work anywhere.

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3 hours ago, tomandlu said:

Better food and something else to look at rather than grumpy white people? And just to settle a bet with myself, do you live in the country and encounter few non-whites in your daily life in comparison to a city-dweller?

Grumpy white people?

 

to settle a bet with myself, you live in London don’t you? :D

come up north, still plenty of ethnic diversity and the white people are happier.

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Horses for courses.....get a piece of paper draw a line down the middle, left side list of benefits of city living/working right side disadvantages.... different things, different people, different times....nothing ever stays the same forever....;)

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3 hours ago, EmmaRoid said:

Grumpy white people?

 

to settle a bet with myself, you live in London don’t you? :D

come up north, still plenty of ethnic diversity and the white people are happier.

I thought the north was miserable, people unhappy, and voted brexit to change things. That's the narrative that's been spun anyway.

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10 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

I thought the north was miserable, people unhappy, and voted brexit to change things. That's the narrative that's been spun anyway.

What do you want names and addresses? 

But look at all those places where mines, steel works, shipyards and factories closed down, all around the UK not just ‘The North’. 

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6 minutes ago, EmmaRoid said:

What do you want names and addresses? 

Seems a strange question. It's pretty simple really. The narrative is that the north is now a hellhole due to being left behind and because of immigration. That's why they voted brexit. We're told. 

I'm curious if anyone on here actually lives in an area in the north that voted for brexit and can vouch for how bad it is.

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7 hours ago, tomandlu said:

Better food and something else to look at rather than grumpy white people? And just to settle a bet with myself, do you live in the country and encounter few non-whites in your daily life in comparison to a city-dweller?

We're boring but the schoolgirls are safe and there's less 'vibrant' street crime.

 

I live in the North and travel the length and breadth of the country. 

 

Better food? And I bet you're one for being outraged at stereotyping.......

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2 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Seems a strange question. It's pretty simple really. The narrative is that the north is now a hellhole due to being left behind and because of immigration. That's why they voted brexit. We're told. 

I'm curious if anyone on here actually lives in an area in the north that voted for brexit and can vouch for how bad it is.

Where is the ‘hellhole’ narrative?

 

*crosses own fingers*

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Just now, dugsbody said:

Seems a strange question. It's pretty simple really. The narrative is that the north is now a hellhole due to being left behind and because of immigration. That's why they voted brexit. We're told. 

I'm curious if anyone on here actually lives in an area in the north that voted for brexit and can vouch for how bad it is.

The north voted out because they want less immigration and they want England back.

 

They'll get neither until the Conservative party is destroyed and replaced with a conservative party. But that's another matter.

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  • 298 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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