A third of everything Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 http://www.cityam.com/272161/uk-house-price-crash-coming-majority-people-think-so-survey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fromage Frais Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 26 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said: Elsewhere in the section is a piece pitching Norwich as the new Notting Hill, so the ST still has one foot in HPI cloud cuckoo land They missed the boat there a sub 100m2 terrace just went Sstc near me for 320k£ utter joke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 8 hours ago, fuzzy_bear said: I don't pay a subscription so don't have access to the whole article but could view enough to catch: "As a result, many people are selling and then renting instead of buying in the hope prices will fall even lower." Isn' that utter madness though - Why gamble your family's future in that way? Have those "many people" calculated how far would prices need to fall to even break even after incurring all the costs of selling and rental costs for 2-5 years?! Great first post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sPinwheel Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 8 hours ago, doomed said: It is just made up shite to push whatever narrative they have been ordered to. At least it seems to favour our side for a change. Like really what % of homeowners will be selling their home for this reason? STR? Paging count....paging count... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 It has nothing to do with "gambling" - the opposite, it is banking the silly money offered - I did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Great first post. It's weird because the poster had this name "fuzzy_bear" which made me think they'd totally be down on HPI, but actually they kind of weren't. What's that about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Princekie Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Re: house price crash. Tbh I believe that the ONLY way this is going to happen is when banks/building societies reign in credit. Bearing in mind banks love doling out cheap and easy credit, I don't see that happening any time soon. Don't forget, a hell of a lot of boomers who bought houses back in the day were usually limited to borrowing 2.5 times their income....if that happened today, the average cost of a home would be a hell of a lot less than £200,000... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said: It's weird because the poster had this name "fuzzy_bear" which made me think they'd totally be down on HPI, but actually they kind of weren't. What's that about? A disguise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Princekie said: Re: house price crash. Tbh I believe that the ONLY way this is going to happen is when banks/building societies reign in credit. Bearing in mind banks love doling out cheap and easy credit, I don't see that happening any time soon. Don't forget, a hell of a lot of boomers who bought houses back in the day were usually limited to borrowing 2.5 times their income....if that happened today, the average cost of a home would be a hell of a lot less than £200,000... The boomers had a very different experience with house buying because they were getting started when inflation was high. Inflation made short work of the real value of their mortgage. The first peak of the UK baby boom is IIRC 1947 and the second is 1963. Throughout the 1970s RPI was never less than 7.5% and peaked at almost 25% in the mid-1970s. The first peak boomers are about 70 now. Their houses pretty much paid for themselves compared to the experience of people buying today. Any boomer who can look a Millennial in the eye without feeling a deep personal shame* embarrassed by their generation's achievements on the housing front is either an ignorant moron or a sociopath (or both). * Make have slightly overcooked it on the "fake anger" (h/t wotshat - via PM natch ) hence the "compromised second draft". Edited September 17, 2017 by Beary McBearface Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tapori Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 13 hours ago, Mapatasy said: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/house-price-crash-expected-w8snh8d9f Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: A disguise? Could be. I'm going undercover to see what's what in the world of the faux bears. Wish me luck. (How bad could 30 days as Beary McBearface possibly be?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, Beary McBearface said: Could be. I'm going undercover to see what's what in the world of the faux bears. Wish me luck. (How bad could 30 days as Beary McBearface possibly be?) Nobody wants house prices to fall more than me, honest guv but because of [INSERT SCIENCY STUFF ABOUT INTEREST RATES] they are never ever going to fall ever ever. And another thing, even if they could somehow fall (even though they actually can't) [the government/Mark Carney/BBC/Ghost of Rod Hull] will never allow it. OK, sorry to interrupt the thread falling house prices falling - what were you guys talking about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maverick73 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 50 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said: Nobody wants house prices to fall more than me, honest guv but because of [INSERT SCIENCY STUFF ABOUT INTEREST RATES] they are never ever going to fall ever ever. And another thing, even if they could somehow fall (even though they actually can't) [the government/Mark Carney/BBC/Ghost of Rod Hull] will never allow it. OK, sorry to interrupt the thread falling house prices falling - what were you guys talking about? agreed, In theory BoE would attempt to hold this level... and lock it in. Fortunately they don't control the price of oil, my guts tells me thats on the rise, hence the stark messages of inflation floating around... Oil goes up..... it becomes more costly to drive this shiny sub prime cars Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Princekie Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Beary McBearface said: The boomers had a very different experience with house buying because they were getting started when inflation was high. Inflation made short work of the real value of their mortgage. The first peak of the UK baby boom is IIRC 1947 and the second is 1963. Throughout the 1970s RPI was never less than 7.5% and peaked at almost 25% in the mid-1970s. The first peak boomers are about 70 now. Their houses pretty much paid for themselves compared to the experience of people buying today. Any boomer who can look a Millennial in the eye without feeling a deep personal shame* embarrassed by their generation's achievements on the housing front is either an ignorant moron or a sociopath (or both). * Make have slightly overcooked it on the "fake anger" (h/t wotshat - via PM natch ) hence the "compromised second draft". All good points. The boomers didn't have zero hour contracts to worry about either. They spent most of the 60s and 70s working their butts off (standing on picket lines). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 hours ago, A third of everything said: http://www.cityam.com/272161/uk-house-price-crash-coming-majority-people-think-so-survey they could use the same story for "majority of people think interest rates are going to rise" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 hours ago, maverick73 said: agreed, In theory BoE would attempt to hold this level... and lock it in. Fortunately they don't control the price of oil, my guts tells me thats on the rise, hence the stark messages of inflation floating around... Oil goes up..... it becomes more costly to drive this shiny sub prime cars Great point. Also the Bitcoin is the Bitcoin isn't it? I mean Bitcoin! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 30 minutes ago, longgone said: they could use the same story for "majority of people think interest rates are going to rise" It is one thing to deprive the boomers of interest income on their state-backed money. Letting its real value fall is something else. The boomers understand inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Crash expected in 2 to 5 Years...surely they meant months? Have the loons looked at the prices, peoples wages, the economic outlook, the ultra low interest rates, the term funding scheme used to prop up prices, htb, htb2, the Chinese, the US.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 4 hours ago, Beary McBearface said: Norwich must be thrilled that someone wrote 1,000 words about it without mentioning Alan. Remember when buying a house to bid high if there's a minimart nearby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richmond Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 hours ago, Freezer? Best place for it said: It has nothing to do with "gambling" - the opposite, it is banking the silly money offered - I did. You know the saying though - markets can stay irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. I have been a reader of this forum for 10 years now and pretty much just HPI even with a stonking financial crisis at the start. I remember watching programs about STR in the early naughties - I wonder where they ended up... Where do you put the STR cash? In cash? In bonds? In the market? What if the crash is 10 years away? I would say if you are in a house you can live in for the forseable future with plenty of equity STR is potentially a gamble. Gambing something perfectly fine that is a 'slow and steady wins the race' to try and win the top prize. Unless you have a very clear plan in case there is no crash (perhaps embrace the renting lifestyle, many swear by it) or tons of disposable income or are stuck in some tiny place that you desperately need to get out of (but with no hope at today's prices), then it may be worthwhile risk. maybe all these years and I am just highly pessimistic of any crash happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorn Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Richmond said: maybe all these years and I am just highly pessimistic of any crash happening. I share this...but on the other hand, I think the main angle keeps coming back to this question- should I buy a family home now, or can I still have a life and get it with Less Debt in the future. To chip away at this question, this forum has been a great Resource. None of us know- but my gut instinct is watch and wait and get informed right now and try and keep the show on the road in the meantime- and aim for the Less Debt option. I think it's going to get interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 35 minutes ago, Richmond said: You know the saying though - markets can stay irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. Quote Arthur Dent's Social History of the Bubble Monkeys The monkeys loved the bubble. You could tell that they loved the bubble because some of them took a phrase that warned them against leveraged investment on assets with frothy prices and used it to suggest that rushing into crappy houses at top prices was a matter of considerable urgency. Looking back on things it's pretty clear that the arrival of the Vogons was a blessing in disguise. They took thoughts about solvency and rationality and freshened them up in the pitiless vacuum of space. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 51 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said: Norwich must be thrilled that someone wrote 1,000 words about it without mentioning Alan. That's how you know the ramping is truly desperate. When an editor tells a junior to excise the Partridge reference in the hope of making the ramping more effective, all bets are off. If the lack of a Partridge joke isn't the ultimate sign of a top then I'll give up my home-owning dreams for good and get myself an annuity that'll cover a retirement in a Travelodge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macca13 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 13 hours ago, fuzzy_bear said: I don't pay a subscription so don't have access to the whole article but could view enough to catch: "As a result, many people are selling and then renting instead of buying in the hope prices will fall even lower." Isn' that utter madness though - Why gamble your family's future in that way? Have those "many people" calculated how far would prices need to fall to even break even after incurring all the costs of selling and rental costs for 2-5 years?! I've sold to rent, mainly as the jump from flat to house is about 250k + have 3 kids so my flat was too small, would have required a 300k + mortgage for something I would actually want to live in.. unless we moved tup north or stay in a 2 bed flat we did not have much choice.. i am still saving after paying rent.. but would need house prices to recede or collapse to make up my deposit.. 300k mortgage at top of the market was too scary! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macca13 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 36 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said: I'll give up my home-owning dreams for good and get myself an annuity that'll cover a retirement in a Travelodge. My reason to believe in a house price crash is this: What happens when generation rent retire? Who pays the rents? Who pays the retirement home cost when they have no money/assets to sell? I think there has to be some point of collapse simply because the government can't pay for everyone.. so it's mass poverty or collapse or both.. I don't see cupcakes and rainbows with these rent prices.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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